Theory building with system dynamics: topic and research contributions

The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including the articles "Closing the Loop: Promoting Synergies with other Theory Building Approaches to Improve System Dynamics Practice," by Birgit Kopainsky and Luis Luna-Reyes, and "On improving dynamic decision-making: Implications from multiple-process cognitive theory," by Bent Bakken.

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

Environmental factors driving the effectiveness of European agri-environmental measures in mitigating pollinator loss – a meta-analysis

In Europe, agri-environmental schemes (AES) have been introduced in response to concerns about farmland biodiversity declines. Yet, as AES have delivered variable results, a better understanding of what determines their success or failure is urgently needed. Focusing on pollinating insects, we quantitatively reviewed how environmental factors affect the effectiveness of AES. Our results suggest that the ecological contrast in floral resources created by schemes drives the response of pollinators to AES but that this response is moderated by landscape context and farmland type, with more positive responses in croplands (vs. grasslands) located in simple (vs. cleared or complex) landscapes. These findings inform us how to promote pollinators and associated pollination services in species-poor landscapes. They do not, however, present viable strategies to mitigate loss of threatened or endangered species. This indicates that the objectives and design of AES should distinguish more clearly between biodiversity conservation and delivery of ecosystem services.

Late Quaternary highstands at Lake Chilwa, Malawi: frequency, timing and possible forcing mechanisms in the last 44ka

The extensive shoreline deposits of Lake Chilwa, southern Malawi, a shallow water body today covering 600 km2 of a basin of 7500 km2, are investigated for their record of late Quaternary highstands. OSL dating, applied to 36 samples from five sediment cores from the northern and western marginal sand ridges, reveal a highstand record spanning 44 ka. Using two different grouping methods, highstand phases are identified at 43.7–33.3 ka, 26.2–21.0 ka and 17.9–12.0 ka (total error method) or 38.4–35.5 ka, 24.3–22.3 ka, 16.2–15.1 ka and 13.5–12.7 ka (Finite Mixture Model age components) with two further discrete events recorded at 11.01 ± 0.76 ka and 8.52 ± 0.56 ka. Highstands are comparable to the timing of wet phases from other basins in East and southern Africa, demonstrating wet conditions in the region before the LGM, which was dry, and a wet Lateglacial, which commenced earlier in the southern compared to northern hemisphere in East Africa. We find no evidence that wet phases are insolation driven, but analysis of the dataset and GCM modelling experiments suggest that Heinrich events may be associated with enhanced monsoon activity in East Africa in both timing and as a possible causal mechanism.

A decade of plant proteomics and mass spectrometry: translation of technical advancements to food security and safety issues

Tremendous progress in plant proteomics driven by mass spectrometry (MS) techniques has been made since 2000 when few proteomics reports were published and plant proteomics was in its infancy. These achievements include the refinement of existing techniques and the search for new techniques to address food security, safety, and health issues. It is projected that in 2050, the world’s population will reach 9–12 billion people demanding a food production increase of 34–70% (FAO, 2009) from today’s food production. Provision of food in a sustainable and environmentally committed manner for such a demand without threatening natural resources, requires that agricultural production increases significantly and that postharvest handling and food manufacturing systems become more efficient requiring lower energy expenditure, a decrease in postharvest losses, less waste generation and food with longer shelf life. There is also a need to look for alternative protein sources to animal based (i.e., plant based) to be able to fulfill the increase in protein demands by 2050. Thus, plant biology has a critical role to play as a science capable of addressing such challenges. In this review, we discuss proteomics especially MS, as a platform, being utilized in plant biology research for the past 10 years having the potential to expedite the process of understanding plant biology for human benefits. The increasing application of proteomics technologies in food security, analysis, and safety is emphasized in this review. But, we are aware that no unique approach/technology is capable to address the global food issues. Proteomics-generated information/resources must be integrated and correlated with other omics-based approaches, information, and conventional programs to ensure sufficient food and resources for human development now and in the future.

A novel ensemble method for retrieving properties of warm cloud in 3-D using ground-based scanning radar and zenith radiances

We present a novel method for retrieving high-resolution, three-dimensional (3-D) nonprecipitating cloud fields in both overcast and broken-cloud situations. The method uses scanning cloud radar and multiwavelength zenith radiances to obtain gridded 3-D liquid water content (LWC) and effective radius (re) and 2-D column mean droplet number concentration (Nd). By using an adaption of the ensemble Kalman filter, radiances are used to constrain the optical properties of the clouds using a forward model that employs full 3-D radiative transfer while also providing full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from a challenging cumulus cloud field produced by a large-eddy simulation snapshot. Uncertainty due to measurement error in overhead clouds is estimated at 20% in LWC and 6% in re, but the true error can be greater due to uncertainties in the assumed droplet size distribution and radiative transfer. Over the entire domain, LWC and re are retrieved with average error 0.05–0.08 g m-3 and ~2 μm, respectively, depending on the number of radiance channels used. The method is then evaluated using real data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Mobile Facility at the Azores. Two case studies are considered, one stratocumulus and one cumulus. Where available, the liquid water path retrieved directly above the observation site was found to be in good agreement with independent values obtained from microwave radiometer measurements, with an error of 20 g m-2.

EISCAT observations of bursts of rapid flow in the high latitude dayside ionosphere

Observations are presented of short-lived, highly structured bursts of rapid plasma flow observed with the EISCAT radar in the high latitude dayside ionosphere. It is shown that the properties of the bursts are consistent with ionospheric perturbations caused by impulsive, localized reconnection at the Earth's magnetopause, i.e. by flux transfer events.

Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

The effects of diesel exhaust pollution on floral volatiles and the consequences for honey bee olfaction

There is growing evidence of a substantial decline in pollinators within Europe and North America, most likely caused by multiple factors such as diseases, poor nutrition, habitat loss, insecticides, and environmental pollution. Diesel exhaust could be a contributing factor to this decline, since we found that diesel exhaust rapidly degrades floral volatiles, which honey bees require for flower recognition. In this study, we exposed eight of the most common floral volatiles to diesel exhaust in order to investigate whether it can affect volatile mediated plant-pollinator interaction. Exposure to diesel exhaust altered the blend of common flower volatiles significantly: myrcene was considerably reduced, β-ocimene became undetectable, and β-caryophyllene was transformed into its cis-isomer isocaryophyllene. Proboscis extension response (PER) assays showed that the alterations of the blend reduced the ability of honey bees to recognize it. The chemically reactive nitrogen oxides fraction of diesel exhaust gas was identified as capable of causing degradation of floral volatiles.

Clinical and molecular delineation of the 17q21.31 microdeletion syndrome

Background: The chromosome 17q21.31 microdeletion syndrome is a novel genomic disorder that has originally been identified using high resolution genome analyses in patients with unexplained mental retardation. Aim: We report the molecular and/or clinical characterisation of 22 individuals with the 17q21.31 microdeletion syndrome. Results: We estimate the prevalence of the syndrome to be 1 in 16 000 and show that it is highly underdiagnosed. Extensive clinical examination reveals that developmental delay, hypotonia, facial dysmorphisms including a long face, a tubular or pear-shaped nose and a bulbous nasal tip, and a friendly/amiable behaviour are the most characteristic features. Other clinically important features include epilepsy, heart defects and kidney/urologic anomalies. Using high resolution oligonucleotide arrays we narrow the 17q21.31 critical region to a 424 kb genomic segment (chr17: 41046729-41470954, hg17) encompassing at least six genes, among which is the gene encoding microtubule associated protein tau (MAPT). Mutation screening of MAPT in 122 individuals with a phenotype suggestive of 17q21.31 deletion carriers, but who do not carry the recurrent deletion, failed to identify any disease associated variants. In five deletion carriers we identify a <500 bp rearrangement hotspot at the proximal breakpoint contained within an L2 LINE motif and show that in every case examined the parent originating the deletion carries a common 900 kb 17q21.31 inversion polymorphism, indicating that this inversion is a necessary factor for deletion to occur (p< 10(25)). Conclusion: Our data establish the 17q21.31 microdeletion syndrome as a clinically and molecularly well recognisable genomic disorder.

A WAVELET-BASED SPEAKER VERIFICATION ALGORITHM

This paper presents a study on wavelets and their characteristics for the specific purpose of serving as a feature extraction tool for speaker verification (SV), considering a Radial Basis Function (RBF) classifier, which is a particular type of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Examining characteristics such as support-size, frequency and phase responses, amongst others, we show how Discrete Wavelet Transforms (DWTs), particularly the ones which derive from Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filters, can be used to extract important features from a speech signal which are useful for SV. Lastly, an SV algorithm based on the concepts presented is described.

Determinação experimental e teórica da resposta tranversal à ação do vento de uma torre de telecomunicações de concreto armado

o vento é uma das principais fontes de carregamento sobre estruturas altas, que quando excitadas, principalmente em sua fteqüência natural, oscilam transversalmente. Este movimento é produzido pelo desprendimento de vórtices, pelas forças oriundas do movimento da estrutura e pela componente lateral da turbulência atmosférica, com grandes deslocamentos na direção transversal àincidência do vento. Este trabalho tem por objetivo a determinação da resposta transversal de uma torre de telecomunicações de concreto armado, de seção transversal circular, através de estudo experimental em túnel de vento e previsões teóricas. O programa experimental inclui medições em modelos estático e dinâmico, envolvendo a simulação do escoamento em tomo de corpos cilíndricos circulares, o qual é fortemente afetado pelo número de Reynolds, pelas características da turbulência, pela rugosidade superficial do cilindro, pelos efeitos de tridimensionalidade e pela interação fluido-estrutura. A resposta obtida através de ensaios em modelo reduzido será comparada com a indicada por determinados modelos matemáticos, incluindo alguns processos normativas. Foram determinadas as respostas longitudinal e transversal a partir de enS810S aeroelásticos em escoamento uniforme e suave e deslizante e turbulento. Comparando a resposta transversal obtida em túnel de vento com a indicada pelos modelos matemáticos e processos normativos, observa-se que a resposta transversal máxima obtida através dos ensaios em túnel de vento ocorre a uma velocidade média no topo da torre superior à velocidade determinada a partir dos modelos matemáticos. Essa diferença pode ser explicada pela diminuição do St no topo da estrutura, fator não considerado pelos métodos teóricos. Também foi observado que a resposta transversal por desprendimento de vórtices em escoamento uniforme e suave é mínima. Esta aparente contrariedade, para a gama de velocidades na qual esperar-se-ia a resposta transversal máxima, deve-se ao fato de estar o escoamento na vizinhança do Re crítico. Por sua vez, constata-se que a resposta transversal flutuante, obtida em escoamento deslizante e turbulento com p=O,23, é devida principalmente à componente lateral da turbulência atmosférica. Esta situação não se rep ete no caso do escoamento com p=O,ll, para o qual a resposta transversal é devida ao desprendimento de vórtices, sendo semelhante, em magnitude, aos valores obtidos pelos modelos matemáticos. Nos casos acima, para a gama de velocidades na qual foi registrada a resposta transversal máxima, o escoamento em tomo do modelo encontrava-se no regime supercrítico.

Simulação de sistemas térmicos de potência para geração de energia elétrica

O presente trabalho é dedicado à simulação numérica de sistemas térmicos de potência. O trabalho é iniciado com a modelagem de um ciclo Rankine, dedicado à produção de energia elétrica, para o qual foi elaborado um programa de simulação com a linguagem de programação MATLAB. A partir desse primeiro caso, são apresentados os modelos empregados para representar os diversos componentes que formam o circuito, como o gerador de vapor, a turbina, o condensador e a bomba. Além desses componentes, são introduzidas as equações que representam o escoamento do fluido de trabalho, no caso a água, permitindo assim o cálculo da perda de carga nas diferentes canalizações do circuito, sendo também acoplado o funcionamento da bomba. Essa alternativa pennite uma melhor avaliação do trabalho despendido para operar o sistema. A modelagem do ciclo deixa então de ser exclusivamente tennodinâmica, e passa a incluir aspectos de mecânica de fluidos. Outras variantes desse ciclo simples são também modelados e simulados, incluindo ciclos Rankine regenerativos e com irreversibilidades. As simulações são efetuadas admitindo-se parâmetros de operação, como, potência da turbina, temperatura do vapor d'água na entrada da turbina e pressão do vapor d'água na saída da turbina, com a variante de fixar-se o título do vapor d'água na saída da turbina.