Building Autonomous Sensitive Artificial Listeners

This paper describes a substantial effort to build a real-time interactive multimodal dialogue system with a focus on emotional and non-verbal interaction capabilities. The work is motivated by the aim to provide technology with competences in perceiving and producing the emotional and non-verbal behaviours required to sustain a conversational dialogue. We present the Sensitive Artificial Listener (SAL) scenario as a setting which seems particularly suited for the study of emotional and non- verbal behaviour, since it requires only very limited verbal understanding on the part of the machine. This scenario allows us to concentrate on non-verbal capabilities without having to address at the same time the challenges of spoken language understanding, task modeling etc. We first report on three prototype versions of the SAL scenario, in which the behaviour of the Sensitive Artificial Listener characters was determined by a human operator. These prototypes served the purpose of verifying the effectiveness of the SAL scenario and allowed us to collect data required for building system components for analysing and synthesising the respective behaviours. We then describe the fully autonomous integrated real-time system we created, which combines incremental analysis of user behaviour, dialogue management, and synthesis of speaker and listener behaviour of a SAL character displayed as a virtual agent. We discuss principles that should underlie the evaluation of SAL-type systems. Since the system is designed for modularity and reuse, and since it is publicly available, the SAL system has potential as a joint research tool in the affective computing research community.

Scientific revolutions, progess and accounting research

Thomas Kuhn’s concept of a normal science paradigm has been utilised and criticised across a range of social science fields. However, Kuhn’s aim was to argue that science progresses not in an incremental manner but through a series of paradigms that need a revolution in thought to shift from one to the next. This paper addresses Kuhn’s work focusing on the totality of his model, but recognising the ambiguities concerning paradigm shifts that have led to charges of relativism. To address this weakness an argument is advanced for a political economy analysis of the publication process and the development of critical accounting research centred on human emancipation. The paper concludes with some suggested research agendas particularly relevant to the Irish context.

Effect of a biofilm on the adsorption of 4-chlorophenol on activated carbon

The adsorption of 4-chlorophenol (4-CP) on activated carbon was studied experimentally both in the presence and in the absence of an inactivated anaerobic biofilm on the surface of carbon pellets. The presence of the biofilm markedly decreased the rate of 4-CP adsorption. However, the final near-equilibrium state (at 27 h) was not affected, and the incremental amount of material adsorbed on the pellets was similar both in the presence and in the absence of the biofilm. The biosorption of 4-CP by a biofilm coating non-adsorbing pellets was also determined. It appears that the biofilm also has some adsorption capability. Freundlich-type equations were used to correlate all data, and transient and near-equilibrium isotherms were obtained for 4-CP adsorption on different adsorbing materials at different times.

Cycle Ergometer Tests in Children With Cystic Fibrosis:Reliability and Feasibility

The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and feasibility of cycle ergometer tests in young children with cystic fibrosis (CF). Children with CF aged 6-11 years and with stable lung disease performed two cycle ergometry tests (intermittent sprint and continuous incremental) on two occasions 1 week apart. Reliability was assessed using repeated-measures ANOVA. Bias was considered to be significant at P?

A simple non-linear global-local finite element methodology for composite structures

A simple non-linear global-local finite element methodology is presented. A global coarse model, using 2-D shell elements, is solved non-linearly and the displacements and rotations around a region of interest are applied, as displacement boundary conditions, to a refined local 3-D model using Kirchhoff plate assumptions. The global elements' shape functions are used to interpolate between nodes. The local model is then solved non-linearly with an incremental scheme independent of that used for the global model.

Urban greenways have the potential to increase physical activity levels cost-effectively

BACKGROUND: For many, physical activity has been engineered out of daily life, leading to high levels of sedentariness and obesity. Multi-faceted physical activity interventions, combining individual, community and environmental approaches, have the greatest potential to improve public health, but few have been evaluated. METHODS: Approximately 100 000 people may benefit from improved opportunities for physical activity through an urban regeneration project in Northern Ireland, the Connswater Community Greenway. Using the macro-simulation PREVENT model, we estimated its potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness. To do so, we modelled its potential impact on the burden from cardiovascular disease, namely, ischaemic heart disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus and stroke, and colon and breast cancer, by the year 2050, if feasible increases in physical activity were to be achieved. RESULTS: If 10% of those classified as 'inactive' (perform less than 150 minutes of moderate activity/week) became 'active', 886 incident cases (1.2%) and 75 deaths (0.9%) could be prevented with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £4469/disability-adjusted life year. For effectiveness estimates as low as 2%, the intervention would remain cost-effective (£18 411/disability-adjusted life year). Small gains in average life expectancy and disability-adjusted life expectancy could be achieved, and the Greenway population would benefit from 46 less years lived with disability. CONCLUSION: The Greenway intervention could be cost-effective at improving physical activity levels. Although the direct health gains are predicted to be small for any individual, summed over an entire population, they are substantial. In addition, the Greenway is likely to have much wider benefits beyond health.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of internal limiting membrane peeling for patients with idiopathic full thickness macular hole. Protocol for a Randomised Controlled Trial:FILMS (Full-thickness macular hole and Internal Limiting Membrane peeling Study)

Background: A full-thickness macular hole (FTMH) is a common retinal condition associated with impaired vision. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that surgery, by means of pars plana vitrectomy and post-operative intraocular tamponade with gas, is effective for stage 2, 3 and 4 FTMH. Internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling has been introduced as an additional surgical manoeuvre to increase the success of the surgery; i.e. increase rates of hole closure and visual improvement. However, little robust evidence exists supporting the superiority of ILM peeling compared with no-peeling techniques. The purpose of FILMS (Full-thickness macular hole and Internal Limiting Membrane peeling Study) is to determine whether ILM peeling improves the visual function, the anatomical closure of FTMH, and the quality of life of patients affected by this disorder, and the cost-effectiveness of the surgery. Methods/Design: Patients with stage 2-3 idiopathic FTMH of less or equal than 18 months duration (based on symptoms reported by the participant) and with a visual acuity = 20/40 in the study eye will be enrolled in this FILMS from eight sites across the UK and Ireland. Participants will be randomised to receive combined cataract surgery (phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation) and pars plana vitrectomy with postoperative intraocular tamponade with gas, with or without ILM peeling. The primary outcome is distance visual acuity at 6 months. Secondary outcomes include distance visual acuity at 3 and 24 months, near visual acuity at 3, 6, and 24 months, contrast sensitivity at 6 months, reading speed at 6 months, anatomical closure of the macular hole at each time point (1, 3, 6, and 24 months), health related quality of life (HRQOL) at six months, costs to the health service and the participant, incremental costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and adverse events. Discussion: FILMS will provide high quality evidence onthe role of ILM peeling in FTMH surgery. © 2008 Lois et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness of internal limiting membrane peeling versus no peeling for patients with an idiopathic full-thickness macular hole:Results from a randomised controlled trial

Aim: To determine whether internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling is cost-effective compared with no peeling for patients with an idiopathic stage 2 or 3 full-thickness macular hole. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed alongside a randomised controlled trial. 141 participants were randomly allocated to receive macular-hole surgery, with either ILM peeling or no peeling. Health-service resource use, costs and quality of life were calculated for each participant. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was calculated at 6 months. Results: At 6 months, the total costs were on average higher (£424, 95% CI -182 to 1045) in the No Peel arm, primarily owing to the higher reoperation rate in the No Peel arm. The mean additional QALYs from ILM peel at 6 months were 0.002 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.013), adjusting for baseline EQ-5D and other minimisation factors. A mean incremental cost per QALY was not computed, as Peeling was on average less costly and slightly more effective. A stochastic analysis suggested that there was more than a 90% probability that Peeling would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY. Conclusion: Although there is no evidence of a statistically significant difference in either costs or QALYs between macular hole surgery with or without ILM peeling, the balance of probabilities is that ILM Peeling is likely to be a cost-effective option for the treatment of macular holes. Further long-term follow-up data are needed to confirm these findings.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Direct costs of glaucoma and severity of the disease:A multinational long term study of resource utilisation in Europe

Background: Resource utilisation and direct costs associated with glaucoma progression in Europe are unknown. As population progressively ages, the economic impact of the disease will increase. Methods: From a total of 1655 consecutive cases, the records of 194 patients were selected and stratified by disease severity. Record selection was based on diagnoses of primary open angle glaucoma, glaucoma suspect, ocular hypertension, or normal tension glaucoma; 5 years minimum follow up were required. Glaucoma severity was assessed using a six stage glaucoma staging system based on static threshold visual field parameters. Resource utilisation data were abstracted from the charts and unit costs were applied to estimate direct costs to the payer. Resource utilisation and estimated direct cost of treatment, per person year, were calculated. Results: A statistically significant increasing linear trend (p = 0.018) in direct cost as disease severity worsened was demonstrated. The direct cost of treatment increased by an estimated €86 for each incremental step ranging from €455 per person year for stage 0 to €969 per person year for stage 4 disease. Medication costs ranged from 42% to 56% of total direct cost for all stages of disease. Conclusions: These results demonstrate for the first time in Europe that resource utilisation and direct medical costs of glaucoma management increase with worsening disease severity. Based on these findings, managing glaucoma and effectively delaying disease progression would be expected to significantly reduce the economic burden of this disease. These data are relevant to general practitioners and healthcare administrators who have a direct influence on the distribution of resources.

The effectiveness of early lens extraction with intraocular lens implantation for the treatment of primary angle-closure glaucoma (EAGLE): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness. Although primary open-angle glaucoma is more common, primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG) is more likely to result in irreversible blindness. By 2020, 5·3 million people worldwide will be blind because of PACG. The current standard care for PACG is a stepped approach of a combination of laser iridotomy surgery (to open the drainage angle) and medical treatment (to reduce intraocular pressure). If these treatments fail, glaucoma surgery (eg, trabeculectomy) is indicated. It has been proposed that, because the lens of the eye plays a major role in the mechanisms leading to PACG, early clear lens extraction will improve glaucoma control by opening the drainage angle. This procedure might reduce the need for drugs and glaucoma surgery, maintain good visual acuity, and improve quality of life compared with standard care.EAGLE aims to evaluate whether early lens extraction improves patient-reported, clinical outcomes, and cost-effectiveness, compared with standard care.

METHODS/DESIGN: EAGLE is a multicentre pragmatic randomized trial. All people presenting to the recruitment centres in the UK and east Asia with newly diagnosed PACG and who are at least 50 years old are eligible.The primary outcomes are EQ-5D, intraocular pressure, and incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Other outcomes are: vision and glaucoma-specific patient-reported outcomes, visual acuity, visual field, angle closure, number of medications, additional surgery (e.g., trabeculectomy), costs to the health services and patients, and adverse events.A single main analysis will be done at the end of the trial, after three years of follow-up. The analysis will be based on all participants as randomized (intention to treat). 400 participants (200 in each group) will be recruited, to have 90% power at 5% significance level to detect a difference in EQ-5D score between the two groups of 0·05, and a mean difference in intraocular pressure of 1·75 mm Hg. The study will have 80% power to detect a difference of 15% in the glaucoma surgery rate.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN44464607.

Inorganic arsenic in Chinese food and its cancer risk

Even moderate arsenic exposure may lead to health problems, and thus quantifying inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure from food for different population groups in China is essential. By analyzing the data from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) and collecting reported values of iAs in major food groups, we developed a framework of calculating average iAs daily intake for different regions of China. Based on this framework, cancer risks from As in food was deterministically and probabilistically quantified. The article presents estimates for health risk due to the ingestion of food products contaminated with arsenic. Both per individual and for total population estimates were obtained. For the total population, daily iAs intake is around 42 mu g day(-1), and rice is the largest contributor of total iAs intake accounting for about 60%. Incremental lifetime cancer risk from food iAs intake is 106 per 100,000 for adult individuals and the median population cancer risk is 177 per 100,000 varying between regions. Population in the Southern region has a higher cancer risk than that in the Northern region and the total population. Sensitive analysis indicated that cancer slope factor, ingestion rates of rice, aquatic products and iAs concentration in rice were the most relevant variables in the model, as indicated by their higher contribution to variance of the incremental lifetime cancer risk. We conclude that rice may be the largest contributor of iAs through food route for the Chinese people. The population from the South has greater cancer risk than that from the North and the whole population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landmark Cases in Property Law

This book explores the development of basic principles of property law in leading cases. Each paper considers a case on land, personal property or intangibles, discussing what that case contributes to the dominant themes of property jurisprudence - how are property rights acquired? What is the content of property rights? What are the limits or boundaries of property? How are property rights extinguished? Individually and collectively, the papers identify a number of important themes for the doctrinal development of property institutions and their broader justification. These themes include: the obscure and incremental development of seemingly foundational principles, the role of instrumentalism in property reasoning, the influence of the law of tort on the scope of property doctrines, and the impact of Roman legal reasoning on the common law of property. One or more of these themes (and others) is revealed through careful case analysis in each paper and they are collected and critically explored in the editors' introduction. This makes for a coherent and provocative collection.

A lesson in business: cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel financial incentive intervention for increasing physical activity in the workplace

Background: Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer’s perspective.

Methods: Employees used a ‘loyalty card’ to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates.

Results: The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.

Conclusions: The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer’s perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable “business model” which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges.