Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Atomic layer deposition of copper – study through density functional theory

The wonder of the last century has been the rapid development in technology. One of the sectors that it has touched immensely is the electronic industry. There has been exponential development in the field and scientists are pushing new horizons. There is an increased dependence in technology for every individual from different strata in the society. Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) is a unique technique for growing thin films. It is widely used in the semiconductor industry. Films as thin as few nanometers can be deposited using this technique. Although this process has been explored for a variety of oxides, sulphides and nitrides, a proper method for deposition of many metals is missing. Metals are often used in the semiconductor industry and hence are of significant importance. A deficiency in understanding the basic chemistry at the nanoscale for possible reactions has delayed the improvement in metal ALD. In this thesis, we study the intrinsic chemistry involved for Cu ALD. This work reports computational study using Density Functional Theory as implemented in TURBOMOLE program. Both the gas phase and surface reactions are studied in most of the cases. The merits and demerits of a promising transmetallation reaction have been evaluated at the beginning of the study. Further improvements in the structure of precursors and coreagent have been proposed. This has led to the proposal of metallocenes as co-reagents and Cu(I) carbene compounds as new set of precursors. A three step process for Cu ALD that generates ligand free Cu layer after every ALD pulse has also been studied. Although the chemistry has been studied under the umbrella of Cu ALD the basic principles hold true for ALD of other metals (e.g. Co, Ni, Fe ) and also for other branches of science like thin film deposition other than ALD, electrochemical reactions, etc.

A mathematical theory of stochastic microlensing. II. Random images, shear, and the Kac-Rice formula

Continuing our development of a mathematical theory of stochastic microlensing, we study the random shear and expected number of random lensed images of different types. In particular, we characterize the first three leading terms in the asymptotic expression of the joint probability density function (pdf) of the random shear tensor due to point masses in the limit of an infinite number of stars. Up to this order, the pdf depends on the magnitude of the shear tensor, the optical depth, and the mean number of stars through a combination of radial position and the star's mass. As a consequence, the pdf's of the shear components are seen to converge, in the limit of an infinite number of stars, to shifted Cauchy distributions, which shows that the shear components have heavy tails in that limit. The asymptotic pdf of the shear magnitude in the limit of an infinite number of stars is also presented. All the results on the random microlensing shear are given for a general point in the lens plane. Extending to the general random distributions (not necessarily uniform) of the lenses, we employ the Kac-Rice formula and Morse theory to deduce general formulas for the expected total number of images and the expected number of saddle images. We further generalize these results by considering random sources defined on a countable compact covering of the light source plane. This is done to introduce the notion of global expected number of positive parity images due to a general lensing map. Applying the result to microlensing, we calculate the asymptotic global expected number of minimum images in the limit of an infinite number of stars, where the stars are uniformly distributed. This global expectation is bounded, while the global expected number of images and the global expected number of saddle images diverge as the order of the number of stars. © 2009 American Institute of Physics.

Four-decade responses of soil trace elements to an aggrading old-field forest: B, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Fe.

In the ancient and acidic Ultisol soils of the Southern Piedmont, USA, we studied changes in trace element biogeochemistry over four decades, a period during which formerly cultivated cotton fields were planted with pine seedlings that grew into mature forest stands. In 16 permanent plots, we estimated 40-year accumulations of trace elements in forest biomass and O horizons (between 1957 and 1997), and changes in bioavailable soil fractions indexed by extractions of 0.05 mol/L HCl and 0.2 mol/L acid ammonium oxalate (AAO). Element accumulations in 40-year tree biomass plus O horizons totaled 0.9, 2.9, 4.8, 49.6, and 501.3 kg/ha for Cu, B, Zn, Mn, and Fe, respectively. In response to this forest development, samples of the upper 0.6-m of mineral soil archived in 1962 and 1997 followed one of three patterns. (1) Extractable B and Mn were significantly depleted, by -4.1 and -57.7 kg/ha with AAO, depletions comparable to accumulations in biomass plus O horizons, 2.9 and 49.6 kg/ha, respectively. Tree uptake of B and Mn from mineral soil greatly outpaced resupplies from atmospheric deposition, mineral weathering, and deep-root uptake. (2) Extractable Zn and Cu changed little during forest growth, indicating that nutrient resupplies kept pace with accumulations by the aggrading forest. (3) Oxalate-extractable Fe increased substantially during forest growth, by 275.8 kg/ha, about 10-fold more than accumulations in tree biomass (28.7 kg/ha). The large increases in AAO-extractable Fe in surficial 0.35-m mineral soils were accompanied by substantial accretions of Fe in the forest's O horizon, by 473 kg/ha, amounts that dwarfed inputs via litterfall and canopy throughfall, indicating that forest Fe cycling is qualitatively different from that of other macro- and micronutrients. Bioturbation of surficial forest soil layers cannot account for these fractions and transformations of Fe, and we hypothesize that the secondary forest's large inputs of organic additions over four decades has fundamentally altered soil Fe oxides, potentially altering the bioavailability and retention of macro- and micronutrients, contaminants, and organic matter itself. The wide range of responses among the ecosystem's trace elements illustrates the great dynamics of the soil system over time scales of decades.

People who expect to enter psychotherapy are prone to believing that they have forgotten memories of childhood trauma and abuse.

We asked 1004 undergraduates to estimate both the probability that they would enter therapy and the probability that they experienced but could not remember incidents of potentially life-threatening childhood traumas or physical and sexual abuse. We found a linear relation between the expectation of entering therapy and the belief that one had, but cannot now remember, childhood trauma and abuse. Thus individuals who are prone to seek psychotherapy are also prone to accept a suggested memory of childhood trauma or abuse as fitting their expectations. In multiple regressions predicting the probability of forgotten memories of childhood traumas and abuse, the expectation of entering therapy remained as a substantial predictor when self-report measures of mood, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity, and trauma exposure were included.

Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the coastal Monte Léon and Santa Cruz formations (Early Miocene) at Rincón del Buque, Southern Patagonia: A revisited locality

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.Sedimentological, ichnological and paleontological analyses of the Early Miocene uppermost Monte León Formation and the lower part of the Santa Cruz Formation were carried out in Rincón del Buque (RDB), a fossiliferous locality north of Río Coyle in Santa Cruz Province, Patagonia, Argentina. This locality is of special importance because it contains the basal contact between the Monte Léon (MLF) and the Santa Cruz (SCF) formations and because it preserves a rich fossil assemblage of marine invertebrates and marine trace fossils, and terrestrial vertebrates and plants, which has not been extensively studied. A ~90m-thick section of the MLF and the SCF that crops out at RDB was selected for this study. Eleven facies associations (FA) are described, which are, from base to top: subtidal-intertidal deposits with Crassotrea orbignyi and bioturbation of the Skolithos-Cruziana ichnofacies (FA1); tidal creek deposits with terrestrial fossil mammals and Ophiomorpha isp. burrows (FA2); tidal flat deposits with Glossifungites ichnofacies (FA3); deposits of tidal channels (FA4) and tidal sand flats (FA5) both with and impoverish Skolithos ichnofacies associated; marsh deposits (FA6); tidal point bar deposits recording a depauperate mixture of both the Skolithos and Cruziana ichnofacies (FA7); fluvial channel deposits (FA8); fluvial point bar deposits (FA9); floodplain deposits (FA10); and pyroclastic and volcaniclastic deposits of the floodplain where terrestrial fossil mammal remains occur (FA11).The transition of the MLF-SCF at RDB reflects a changing depositional environment from the outer part of an estuary (FA1) through the central (FA2-6) to inner part of a tide-dominated estuary (FA7). Finally a fluvial system occurs with single channels of relatively low energy and low sinuosity enclosed by a broad, low-energy floodplain dominated by partially edaphized ash-fall, sheet-flood, and overbank deposits (FA8-11). Pyroclastic and volcaniclastic materials throughout the succession must have been deposited as ash-fall distal facies in a fluvial setting and also were carried by fluvial streams and redeposited in both estuarine and fluvial settings. These materials preserve most of the analyzed terrestrial fossil mammals that characterize the Santacrucian age of the RDB's succession. Episodic sedimentation under volcanic influence, high sedimentation rates and a relatively warm and seasonal climate are inferred for the MLF and SCF section.Lateral continuity of the marker horizons at RDB serve for correlation with other coastal localities such as the lower part of the coastal SCF south of Río Coyle (~17.6-17.4Ma) belonging to the Estancia La Costa Member of the SCF.

Computational Inference of Genome-Wide Protein-DNA Interactions Using High-Throughput Genomic Data

Transcriptional regulation has been studied intensively in recent decades. One important aspect of this regulation is the interaction between regulatory proteins, such as transcription factors (TF) and nucleosomes, and the genome. Different high-throughput techniques have been invented to map these interactions genome-wide, including ChIP-based methods (ChIP-chip, ChIP-seq, etc.), nuclease digestion methods (DNase-seq, MNase-seq, etc.), and others. However, a single experimental technique often only provides partial and noisy information about the whole picture of protein-DNA interactions. Therefore, the overarching goal of this dissertation is to provide computational developments for jointly modeling different experimental datasets to achieve a holistic inference on the protein-DNA interaction landscape.

We first present a computational framework that can incorporate the protein binding information in MNase-seq data into a thermodynamic model of protein-DNA interaction. We use a correlation-based objective function to model the MNase-seq data and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to maximize the function. Our results show that the inferred protein-DNA interaction landscape is concordant with the MNase-seq data and provides a mechanistic explanation for the experimentally collected MNase-seq fragments. Our framework is flexible and can easily incorporate other data sources. To demonstrate this flexibility, we use prior distributions to integrate experimentally measured protein concentrations.

We also study the ability of DNase-seq data to position nucleosomes. Traditionally, DNase-seq has only been widely used to identify DNase hypersensitive sites, which tend to be open chromatin regulatory regions devoid of nucleosomes. We reveal for the first time that DNase-seq datasets also contain substantial information about nucleosome translational positioning, and that existing DNase-seq data can be used to infer nucleosome positions with high accuracy. We develop a Bayes-factor-based nucleosome scoring method to position nucleosomes using DNase-seq data. Our approach utilizes several effective strategies to extract nucleosome positioning signals from the noisy DNase-seq data, including jointly modeling data points across the nucleosome body and explicitly modeling the quadratic and oscillatory DNase I digestion pattern on nucleosomes. We show that our DNase-seq-based nucleosome map is highly consistent with previous high-resolution maps. We also show that the oscillatory DNase I digestion pattern is useful in revealing the nucleosome rotational context around TF binding sites.

Finally, we present a state-space model (SSM) for jointly modeling different kinds of genomic data to provide an accurate view of the protein-DNA interaction landscape. We also provide an efficient expectation-maximization algorithm to learn model parameters from data. We first show in simulation studies that the SSM can effectively recover underlying true protein binding configurations. We then apply the SSM to model real genomic data (both DNase-seq and MNase-seq data). Through incrementally increasing the types of genomic data in the SSM, we show that different data types can contribute complementary information for the inference of protein binding landscape and that the most accurate inference comes from modeling all available datasets.

This dissertation provides a foundation for future research by taking a step toward the genome-wide inference of protein-DNA interaction landscape through data integration.

Automatic code generation of overlapped communications in a parallelisation tool

This paper addresses the exploitation of overlapping communication with calculation within parallel FORTRAN 77 codes for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structured dynamics (CSD). The obvious objective is to overlap interprocessor communication with calculation on each processor in a distributed memory parallel system and so improve the efficiency of the parallel implementation. A general strategy for converting synchronous to overlapped communication is presented together with tools to enable its automatic implementation in FORTRAN 77 codes. This strategy is then implemented within the parallelisation toolkit, CAPTools, to facilitate the automatic generation of parallel code with overlapped communications. The success of these tools are demonstrated on two codes from the NAS-PAR and PERFECT benchmark suites. In each case, the tools produce parallel code with overlapped communications which is as good as that which could be generated manually. The parallel performance of the codes also improve in line with expectation.

Student Experience of E-Learning (SEEL)

The Student Experience of E-Learning project (SEEL) was an institutional response to the university’s HEA/JISC Benchmarking exercise (Ryan and Kandler, 2007). The study had a social constructivist approach which recognised the importance of listening to the student voice (JISC 2007) within the University of Greenwich context, to interpret the student experience of e-learning. Nearly 1000 students responded to an online survey on their approaches to, and their use of, learning technology. The quantitative and qualitative questions used included identifying study patterns, using specific online tools, within the context of learning and beyond, and student’s attitudes towards using e-learning in their studies. Initially, individual responses to questions were analysed in depth, giving a general indication of the student experience. Further depth was applied through a filtering mechanism, beginning with a cross-slicing of individual student responses to produce cameos. Audio logs and individual interviews were drawn from these cameos. Analysis of the cameos is in progress but has already revealed some unexpected results. There was a mismatch between students’ expectations of the university’s use of technology and their experiences and awareness of its possible use in other contexts. Students recognised the importance of social interaction as a vehicle for learning (Vygotsky 1978, Bruner 2006) but expressed polarised views on the use of social networking sites such as Facebook for e-learning. Their experiences in commercial contexts led them to see the university VLE as unimaginative and the tutors’ use of it as lacking in vision. Whereas analysis of the individual questions provided a limited picture, the cameos gave a truer reflection of the students lived experiences and identified a gulf between the university’s provision and the students’ expectation of e-learning and their customary use of technology. However it is recognised that the very nature of an online survey necessarily excludes students who chose not to engage, either through lack of skills or through disillusionment and this would constitute a separate area for study.

A thematic cost-benefit analysis of a marine protected area

The implementation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is ultimately a social endeavour to sustain or improve human well-being via the conservation of marine ecosystems. The degree to which ecological gains are realised can depend upon how economic, ecological and social costs (negative impacts) and benefits (positive impacts) are included in the designation and management process. Without the support of key stakeholder groups whose user rights have been affected by the creation of an MPA, human impacts cannot be reduced. This study analyses a three year dataset to understand the themes associated with the economic, environmental and social costs and benefits of an MPA in Lyme Bay, United Kingdom (UK) following its establishment in 2008. Methodologically, the paper presents an ecosystem based management framework for analysing costs and benefits. Two hundred and forty one individuals were interviewed via questionnaire between 2008 and 2010 to determine perceptions and the level of support towards the MPA. Results reveal that despite the contentious manner in which this MPA was established, support for the MPA is strong amongst the majority of stakeholder groups. The level of support and the reasons given for support vary between stakeholder groups. Overall, the stakeholders perceive the social, economic and environmental benefits of the MPA to outweigh the perceived costs. There have been clear social costs of the MPA policy and these have been borne by mobile and static gear fishermen and charter boat operators. Local support for this MPA bodes well for the development of a network of MPAs around the UK coast under the United Kingdom Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009. However, this initial optimism is at risk if stakeholder expectation is not managed and the management vacuum is not filled.

Monsoon oscillations regulate fertility of the Red Sea

Tropical ocean ecosystems are predicted to become warmer, more saline, and less fertile in a future Earth. The Red Sea, one of the warmest and most saline environments in the world, may afford insights into the function of the tropical ocean ecosystem in a changing planet. We show that the concentration of chlorophyll and the duration of the phytoplankton growing season in the Red Sea are controlled by the strength of the winter Arabian monsoon (through horizontal advection of fertile waters from the Indian Ocean). Furthermore, and contrary to expectation, in the last decade (1998–2010) the winter Red Sea phytoplankton biomass has increased by 75% during prolonged positive phases of the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index. A new mechanism is reported, revealing the synergy of monsoon and climate in regulating Red Sea greenness.

Assessing the conservation status of marine habitats: thoughts from a sandflat on the Isles of Scilly.

Statutory monitoring of the fauna of the ‘mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide’ biotope complex on St Martin’s Flats, a part of the Isles of Scilly Complex Special Area of Conservation, was undertaken in 2000, 2004 and 2009. The targets set by Natural England for “characteristic biotopes” were that “composite species, abundance and diversity should not deviate significantly from an established baseline, subject to natural change”. The three specified biotopes could not be distinguished, and instead three assemblages were subjectively defined based on sediment surface features. There were statistically significant natural changes in diversity and species composition between years, especially in the association initially characterized by the razor-clam Ensis, and possible reasons for this are discussed. It is suggested that setting fixed local limits on natural variability is almost always impractical. Two possible approaches to distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic changes are suggested; a change in ecological condition as indicated by AMBI scores, and a significant change in average taxonomic distinctness (Δ+) compared with expectation. The determination of species biomasses as well as abundances might also open more possibilities for assessment. The practice of setting objectives for a marine SAC feature that include the range and number of biotopes cannot be supported, in view the difficulty in ascribing assemblages to recognised biotopes. A more realistic definition of species assemblages might best be gained from examination of the species that consistently make a substantial contribution to the Bray Curtis similarity among samples collected from specific sites.

Using WebCT to Support a Community of Practice

Reflecting a view of “teaching as both an intellectual and practical activity” the Queen’s University Bachelor of Education program has multi-week in-school practicum sessions separated by periods of on-campus course work. The expectation is that teacher candidates will bring together theory and practice as they reflect upon their daily classroom experiences. The reality often is that, while isolated from the university environment and caught up in the pressures of teaching, little deep reflection takes place. For reflection and critical examination of experience to occur, teacher candidates need to share and discuss on a daily basis their practice teaching experience. For the past few years, students in my secondary school mathematics curriculum course, through a WebCT based conference, have been provided, while away from campus, with a place for on-going sharing of teaching stories and dilemmas. In the Fall of 2004 eight-five percent of the class took part in the discussions, posting a total of 667 messages over a 9 week period. In an effort to increase the value of this practicum conference we have analysed the topic threads arising in the conversation, surveyed the participants concerning their impressions of the sharing experience, and conducted in-depth interviews with a sampling of the class. This session will present the results of this study and provide an opportunity to discuss ways in which an online discussion can support the building of community and the exchange of experience while students in professional programs are disbursed in practice/clinical settings.

Prograded Holocene beach-ridges with superimposed dunes in north-east Ireland: mechanisms and timescales of fine and coarse beach sediment decoupling and deposition

Two depositional models to account for Holocene gravel-dominated beach ridges covered by dunes, occurring on the northern coast of Ireland, are considered in the light of infrared-stimulated luminescence ages of sand units within beach ridges, and 14C ages from organic horizons in dunes. A new chronostratigraphy obtained from prograded beach ridges with covering dunes at Murlough, north-east Ireland, supports a model of mesoscale alternating sediment decoupling (ASD) on the upper beach, rather than macroscale sequential sediment sourcing to account for prograded beach ridges and covering dunes. The ASD model specifies storm or fair-weather sand beach ridges forming at high-tide positions (on an annual basis at minimum), which acted as deflationary sources for landward foredune development. Only a limited number of such late-Holocene beach ridges survive in the observed prograded series. Beach ridges only survive when capped by storm-generated gravel beaches that are deposited on a mesoscale time spacing of 50–130 years. The morphodynamic shift from a dissipative beach face for dune formation to a reflective beach face for gravel capping appears to be controlled by the beach sand volume falling to a level where reflective conditions can prevail. Sediment volume entering the beach is thought to have fluctuated as a function of a forced regression associated with the falling sea level from the mid-Holocene highstand (ca. 6000 cal. yr BP) identified in north-east Ireland. The prograded beach ridges dated at ca. 3000 to 2000 cal. yr BP indicate that the Holocene highstand’s regressive phase may have lasted longer than previously specified.