861 resultados para homeostatic model assessment
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Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) light is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors. Individual exposure data remain scarce and development of alternative assessment methods is greatly needed. We developed a model simulating human exposure to solar UV. The model predicts the dose and distribution of UV exposure received on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop a rendering engine that estimates the solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by each triangle was calculated, taking into account reflected, direct and diffuse radiation, and shading from other body parts. Dosimetric measurements (n = 54) were conducted in field conditions using a foam manikin as surrogate for an exposed individual. Dosimetric results were compared to the model predictions. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately. The symmetric mean absolute percentage error was 13%. Half of the predictions were within 17% range of the measurements. This model provides a tool to assess outdoor occupational and recreational UV exposures, without necessitating time-consuming individual dosimetry, with numerous potential uses in skin cancer prevention and research.
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Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.
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AIMS: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We validated the model in 367 patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at 117 European emergency departments. We used baseline data for the model's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V). We compared 90-day mortality within each risk class and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the validation and the original derivation samples. We also assessed the rate of recurrent venous thrombo-embolism and major bleeding within each risk class. Mortality was 0% in Risk Class I, 1.0% in Class II, 3.1% in Class III, 10.4% in Class IV, and 24.4% in Class V and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation samples. The area under the curve was larger in the validation sample (0.87 vs. 0.78, P=0.01). No patients in Classes I and II developed recurrent thrombo-embolism or major bleeding. CONCLUSION: The model accurately stratifies patients with PE into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other relevant complications. Patients in Risk Classes I and II are at low risk of adverse outcomes and are potential candidates for outpatient treatment.
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Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is an imaging method which enables a volume conductivity map of a subject to be produced from multiple impedance measurements. It has the potential to become a portable non-invasive imaging technique of particular use in imaging brain function. Accurate numerical forward models may be used to improve image reconstruction but, until now, have employed an assumption of isotropic tissue conductivity. This may be expected to introduce inaccuracy, as body tissues, especially those such as white matter and the skull in head imaging, are highly anisotropic. The purpose of this study was, for the first time, to develop a method for incorporating anisotropy in a forward numerical model for EIT of the head and assess the resulting improvement in image quality in the case of linear reconstruction of one example of the human head. A realistic Finite Element Model (FEM) of an adult human head with segments for the scalp, skull, CSF, and brain was produced from a structural MRI. Anisotropy of the brain was estimated from a diffusion tensor-MRI of the same subject and anisotropy of the skull was approximated from the structural information. A method for incorporation of anisotropy in the forward model and its use in image reconstruction was produced. The improvement in reconstructed image quality was assessed in computer simulation by producing forward data, and then linear reconstruction using a sensitivity matrix approach. The mean boundary data difference between anisotropic and isotropic forward models for a reference conductivity was 50%. Use of the correct anisotropic FEM in image reconstruction, as opposed to an isotropic one, corrected an error of 24 mm in imaging a 10% conductivity decrease located in the hippocampus, improved localisation for conductivity changes deep in the brain and due to epilepsy by 4-17 mm, and, overall, led to a substantial improvement on image quality. This suggests that incorporation of anisotropy in numerical models used for image reconstruction is likely to improve EIT image quality.
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Homology modeling is the most commonly used technique to build a three-dimensional model for a protein sequence. It heavily relies on the quality of the sequence alignment between the protein to model and related proteins with a known three dimensional structure. Alignment quality can be assessed according to the physico-chemical properties of the three dimensional models it produces.In this work, we introduce fifteen predictors designed to evaluate the properties of the models obtained for various alignments. They consist of an energy value obtained from different force fields (CHARMM, ProsaII or ANOLEA) computed on residue selected around misaligned regions. These predictors were evaluated on ten challenging test cases. For each target, all possible ungapped alignments are generated and their corresponding models are computed and evaluated.The best predictor, retrieving the structural alignment for 9 out of 10 test cases, is based on the ANOLEA atomistic mean force potential and takes into account residues around misaligned secondary structure elements. The performance of the other predictors is significantly lower. This work shows that substantial improvement in local alignments can be obtained by careful assessment of the local structure of the resulting models.
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This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.
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Static process simulation has traditionally been used to model complex processes for various purposes. However, the use of static processsimulators for the preparation of holistic examinations aiming at improving profit-making capability requires a lot of work because the production of results requires the assessment of the applicability of detailed data which may be irrelevant to the objective. The relevant data for the total assessment gets buried byirrelevant data. Furthermore, the models do not include an examination of the maintenance or risk management, and economic examination is often an extra property added to them which can be performed with a spreadsheet program. A process model applicable to holistic economic examinations has been developed in this work. The model is based on the life cycle profit philosophy developed by Hagberg and Henriksson in 1996. The construction of the model has utilized life cycle assessment and life cycle costing methodologies with a view to developing, above all, a model which would be applicable to the economic examinations of complete wholes and which would require the need for information focusing on aspects essential to the objectives. Life cycle assessment and costing differ from each other in terms of the modeling principles, but the features of bothmethodologies can be used in the development of economic process modeling. Methods applicable to the modeling of complex processes can be examined from the viewpoint of life cycle methodologies, because they involve the collection and management of large corpuses of information and the production of information for the needs of decision-makers as well. The results of the study shows that on the basis of the principles of life cycle modeling, a process model can be created which may be used to produce holistic efficiency examinations on the profit-making capability of the production line, with fewer resources thanwith traditional methods. The calculations of the model are based to the maximum extent on the information system of the factory, which means that the accuracyof the results can be improved by developing information systems so that they can provide the best information for this kind of examinations.
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Shallow upland drains, grips, have been hypothesized as responsible for increased downstream flow magnitudes. Observations provide counterfactual evidence, often relating to the difficulty of inferring conclusions from statistical correlation and paired catchment comparisons, and the complexity of designing field experiments to test grip impacts at the catchment scale. Drainage should provide drier antecedent moisture conditions, providing more storage at the start of an event; however, grips have higher flow velocities than overland flow, thus potentially delivering flow more rapidly to the drainage network. We develop and apply a model for assessing the impacts of grips on flow hydrographs. The model was calibrated on the gripped case, and then the gripped case was compared with the intact case by removing all grips. This comparison showed that even given parameter uncertainty, the intact case had significantly higher flood peaks and lower baseflows, mirroring field observations of the hydrological response of intact peat. The simulations suggest that this is because delivery effects may not translate into catchment-scale impacts for three reasons. First, in our case, the proportions of flow path lengths that were hillslope were not changed significantly by gripping. Second, the structure of the grip network as compared with the structure of the drainage basin mitigated against grip-related increases in the concentration of runoff in the drainage network, although it did marginally reduce the mean timing of that concentration at the catchment outlet. Third, the effect of the latter upon downstream flow magnitudes can only be assessed by reference to the peak timing of other tributary basins, emphasizing that drain effects are both relative and scale dependent. However, given the importance of hillslope flow paths, we show that if upland drainage causes significant changes in surface roughness on hillslopes, then critical and important feedbacks may impact upon the speed of hydrological response. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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(13)C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) combined with the administration of (13)C labeled substrates uniquely allows to measure metabolic fluxes in vivo in the brain of humans and rats. The extension to mouse models may provide exclusive prospect for the investigation of models of human diseases. In the present study, the short-echo-time (TE) full-sensitivity (1)H-[(13)C] MRS sequence combined with high magnetic field (14.1 T) and infusion of [U-(13)C6] glucose was used to enhance the experimental sensitivity in vivo in the mouse brain and the (13)C turnover curves of glutamate C4, glutamine C4, glutamate+glutamine C3, aspartate C2, lactate C3, alanine C3, γ-aminobutyric acid C2, C3 and C4 were obtained. A one-compartment model was used to fit (13)C turnover curves and resulted in values of metabolic fluxes including the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle flux VTCA (1.05 ± 0.04 μmol/g per minute), the exchange flux between 2-oxoglutarate and glutamate Vx (0.48 ± 0.02 μmol/g per minute), the glutamate-glutamine exchange rate V(gln) (0.20 ± 0.02 μmol/g per minute), the pyruvate dilution factor K(dil) (0.82 ± 0.01), and the ratio for the lactate conversion rate and the alanine conversion rate V(Lac)/V(Ala) (10 ± 2). This study opens the prospect of studying transgenic mouse models of brain pathologies.
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[cat] La carpeta d'aprenentatge representa un punt de trobada dels grans temes que han ocupat la Didàctica d'ençà dels anys 90 del segle passat: el caràcter formatiu de l'avaluació, l'assumpte de les competències, la metacognició i el pensament crític de l'estudiant, el paper desenvolupat per les TIC, i la concepció d'un aprenentatge col·laboratiu i plantejat a llarg termini. En aquest article de revisió, hom estudia com aquests temes s'han concretat en la carpeta d'aprenentatge i n'han determinat la seva evolució. [eng] The learning portofolio represents a meeting point for the big questions than have concernend teaching since the 1990s: the formative character of the assessment, the issue of competencies, metacognition and the students's critical thinking, the role played by ICTs, and the idea of collaborative learning considered in the long term. The article looks at how these subjects have taken shape in the learning portofolio and how they have determinded its evolutin.
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In recent years, there has been an increased attention towards the composition of feeding fats. In the aftermath of the BSE crisis all animal by-products utilised in animal nutrition have been subjected to close scrutiny. Regulation requires that the material belongs to the category of animal by-products fit for human consumption. This implies the use of reliable techniques in order to insure the safety of products. The feasibility of using rapid and non-destructive methods, to control the composition of feedstuffs on animal fats has been studied. Fourier Transform Raman spectroscopy has been chosen for its advantage to give detailed structural information. Data were treated using chemometric methods as PCA and PLS-DA which have permitted to separate well the different classes of animal fats. The same methodology was applied on fats from various types of feedstock and production technology processes. PLS-DA model for the discrimination of animal fats from the other categories presents a sensitivity and a specificity of 0.958 and 0.914, respectively. These results encourage the use of FT-Raman spectroscopy to discriminate animal fats.
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Characterizing the geological features and structures in three dimensions over inaccessible rock cliffs is needed to assess natural hazards such as rockfalls and rockslides and also to perform investigations aimed at mapping geological contacts and building stratigraphy and fold models. Indeed, the detailed 3D data, such as LiDAR point clouds, allow to study accurately the hazard processes and the structure of geologic features, in particular in vertical and overhanging rock slopes. Thus, 3D geological models have a great potential of being applied to a wide range of geological investigations both in research and applied geology projects, such as mines, tunnels and reservoirs. Recent development of ground-based remote sensing techniques (LiDAR, photogrammetry and multispectral / hyperspectral images) are revolutionizing the acquisition of morphological and geological information. As a consequence, there is a great potential for improving the modeling of geological bodies as well as failure mechanisms and stability conditions by integrating detailed remote data. During the past ten years several large rockfall events occurred along important transportation corridors where millions of people travel every year (Switzerland: Gotthard motorway and railway; Canada: Sea to sky highway between Vancouver and Whistler). These events show that there is still a lack of knowledge concerning the detection of potential rockfalls, making mountain residential settlements and roads highly risky. It is necessary to understand the main factors that destabilize rocky outcrops even if inventories are lacking and if no clear morphological evidences of rockfall activity are observed. In order to increase the possibilities of forecasting potential future landslides, it is crucial to understand the evolution of rock slope stability. Defining the areas theoretically most prone to rockfalls can be particularly useful to simulate trajectory profiles and to generate hazard maps, which are the basis for land use planning in mountainous regions. The most important questions to address in order to assess rockfall hazard are: Where are the most probable sources for future rockfalls located? What are the frequencies of occurrence of these rockfalls? I characterized the fracturing patterns in the field and with LiDAR point clouds. Afterwards, I developed a model to compute the failure mechanisms on terrestrial point clouds in order to assess the susceptibility to rockfalls at the cliff scale. Similar procedures were already available to evaluate the susceptibility to rockfalls based on aerial digital elevation models. This new model gives the possibility to detect the most susceptible rockfall sources with unprecented detail in the vertical and overhanging areas. The results of the computation of the most probable rockfall source areas in granitic cliffs of Yosemite Valley and Mont-Blanc massif were then compared to the inventoried rockfall events to validate the calculation methods. Yosemite Valley was chosen as a test area because it has a particularly strong rockfall activity (about one rockfall every week) which leads to a high rockfall hazard. The west face of the Dru was also chosen for the relevant rockfall activity and especially because it was affected by some of the largest rockfalls that occurred in the Alps during the last 10 years. Moreover, both areas were suitable because of their huge vertical and overhanging cliffs that are difficult to study with classical methods. Limit equilibrium models have been applied to several case studies to evaluate the effects of different parameters on the stability of rockslope areas. The impact of the degradation of rockbridges on the stability of large compartments in the west face of the Dru was assessed using finite element modeling. In particular I conducted a back-analysis of the large rockfall event of 2005 (265'000 m3) by integrating field observations of joint conditions, characteristics of fracturing pattern and results of geomechanical tests on the intact rock. These analyses improved our understanding of the factors that influence the stability of rock compartments and were used to define the most probable future rockfall volumes at the Dru. Terrestrial laser scanning point clouds were also successfully employed to perform geological mapping in 3D, using the intensity of the backscattered signal. Another technique to obtain vertical geological maps is combining triangulated TLS mesh with 2D geological maps. At El Capitan (Yosemite Valley) we built a georeferenced vertical map of the main plutonio rocks that was used to investigate the reasons for preferential rockwall retreat rate. Additional efforts to characterize the erosion rate were made at Monte Generoso (Ticino, southern Switzerland) where I attempted to improve the estimation of long term erosion by taking into account also the volumes of the unstable rock compartments. Eventually, the following points summarize the main out puts of my research: The new model to compute the failure mechanisms and the rockfall susceptibility with 3D point clouds allows to define accurately the most probable rockfall source areas at the cliff scale. The analysis of the rockbridges at the Dru shows the potential of integrating detailed measurements of the fractures in geomechanical models of rockmass stability. The correction of the LiDAR intensity signal gives the possibility to classify a point cloud according to the rock type and then use this information to model complex geologic structures. The integration of these results, on rockmass fracturing and composition, with existing methods can improve rockfall hazard assessments and enhance the interpretation of the evolution of steep rockslopes. -- La caractérisation de la géologie en 3D pour des parois rocheuses inaccessibles est une étape nécessaire pour évaluer les dangers naturels tels que chutes de blocs et glissements rocheux, mais aussi pour réaliser des modèles stratigraphiques ou de structures plissées. Les modèles géologiques 3D ont un grand potentiel pour être appliqués dans une vaste gamme de travaux géologiques dans le domaine de la recherche, mais aussi dans des projets appliqués comme les mines, les tunnels ou les réservoirs. Les développements récents des outils de télédétection terrestre (LiDAR, photogrammétrie et imagerie multispectrale / hyperspectrale) sont en train de révolutionner l'acquisition d'informations géomorphologiques et géologiques. Par conséquence, il y a un grand potentiel d'amélioration pour la modélisation d'objets géologiques, ainsi que des mécanismes de rupture et des conditions de stabilité, en intégrant des données détaillées acquises à distance. Pour augmenter les possibilités de prévoir les éboulements futurs, il est fondamental de comprendre l'évolution actuelle de la stabilité des parois rocheuses. Définir les zones qui sont théoriquement plus propices aux chutes de blocs peut être très utile pour simuler les trajectoires de propagation des blocs et pour réaliser des cartes de danger, qui constituent la base de l'aménagement du territoire dans les régions de montagne. Les questions plus importantes à résoudre pour estimer le danger de chutes de blocs sont : Où se situent les sources plus probables pour les chutes de blocs et éboulement futurs ? Avec quelle fréquence vont se produire ces événements ? Donc, j'ai caractérisé les réseaux de fractures sur le terrain et avec des nuages de points LiDAR. Ensuite, j'ai développé un modèle pour calculer les mécanismes de rupture directement sur les nuages de points pour pouvoir évaluer la susceptibilité au déclenchement de chutes de blocs à l'échelle de la paroi. Les zones sources de chutes de blocs les plus probables dans les parois granitiques de la vallée de Yosemite et du massif du Mont-Blanc ont été calculées et ensuite comparés aux inventaires des événements pour vérifier les méthodes. Des modèles d'équilibre limite ont été appliqués à plusieurs cas d'études pour évaluer les effets de différents paramètres sur la stabilité des parois. L'impact de la dégradation des ponts rocheux sur la stabilité de grands compartiments de roche dans la paroi ouest du Petit Dru a été évalué en utilisant la modélisation par éléments finis. En particulier j'ai analysé le grand éboulement de 2005 (265'000 m3), qui a emporté l'entier du pilier sud-ouest. Dans le modèle j'ai intégré des observations des conditions des joints, les caractéristiques du réseau de fractures et les résultats de tests géoméchaniques sur la roche intacte. Ces analyses ont amélioré l'estimation des paramètres qui influencent la stabilité des compartiments rocheux et ont servi pour définir des volumes probables pour des éboulements futurs. Les nuages de points obtenus avec le scanner laser terrestre ont été utilisés avec succès aussi pour produire des cartes géologiques en 3D, en utilisant l'intensité du signal réfléchi. Une autre technique pour obtenir des cartes géologiques des zones verticales consiste à combiner un maillage LiDAR avec une carte géologique en 2D. A El Capitan (Yosemite Valley) nous avons pu géoréferencer une carte verticale des principales roches plutoniques que j'ai utilisé ensuite pour étudier les raisons d'une érosion préférentielle de certaines zones de la paroi. D'autres efforts pour quantifier le taux d'érosion ont été effectués au Monte Generoso (Ticino, Suisse) où j'ai essayé d'améliorer l'estimation de l'érosion au long terme en prenant en compte les volumes des compartiments rocheux instables. L'intégration de ces résultats, sur la fracturation et la composition de l'amas rocheux, avec les méthodes existantes permet d'améliorer la prise en compte de l'aléa chute de pierres et éboulements et augmente les possibilités d'interprétation de l'évolution des parois rocheuses.
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We have investigated the behavior of bistable cells made up of four quantum dots and occupied by two electrons, in the presence of realistic confinement potentials produced by depletion gates on top of a GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructure. Such a cell represents the basic building block for logic architectures based on the concept of quantum cellular automata (QCA) and of ground state computation, which have been proposed as an alternative to traditional transistor-based logic circuits. We have focused on the robustness of the operation of such cells with respect to asymmetries derived from fabrication tolerances. We have developed a two-dimensional model for the calculation of the electron density in a driven cell in response to the polarization state of a driver cell. Our method is based on the one-shot configuration-interaction technique, adapted from molecular chemistry. From the results of our simulations, we conclude that an implementation of QCA logic based on simple ¿hole arrays¿ is not feasible, because of the extreme sensitivity to fabrication tolerances. As an alternative, we propose cells defined by multiple gates, where geometrical asymmetries can be compensated for by adjusting the bias voltages. Even though not immediately applicable to the implementation of logic gates and not suitable for large scale integration, the proposed cell layout should allow an experimental demonstration of a chain of QCA cells.
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Evaluation of image quality (IQ) in Computed Tomography (CT) is important to ensure that diagnostic questions are correctly answered, whilst keeping radiation dose to the patient as low as is reasonably possible. The assessment of individual aspects of IQ is already a key component of routine quality control of medical x-ray devices. These values together with standard dose indicators can be used to give rise to 'figures of merit' (FOM) to characterise the dose efficiency of the CT scanners operating in certain modes. The demand for clinically relevant IQ characterisation has naturally increased with the development of CT technology (detectors efficiency, image reconstruction and processing), resulting in the adaptation and evolution of assessment methods. The purpose of this review is to present the spectrum of various methods that have been used to characterise image quality in CT: from objective measurements of physical parameters to clinically task-based approaches (i.e. model observer (MO) approach) including pure human observer approach. When combined together with a dose indicator, a generalised dose efficiency index can be explored in a framework of system and patient dose optimisation. We will focus on the IQ methodologies that are required for dealing with standard reconstruction, but also for iterative reconstruction algorithms. With this concept the previously used FOM will be presented with a proposal to update them in order to make them relevant and up to date with technological progress. The MO that objectively assesses IQ for clinically relevant tasks represents the most promising method in terms of radiologist sensitivity performance and therefore of most relevance in the clinical environment.
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This chapter presents possible uses and examples of Monte Carlo methods for the evaluation of uncertainties in the field of radionuclide metrology. The method is already well documented in GUM supplement 1, but here we present a more restrictive approach, where the quantities of interest calculated by the Monte Carlo method are estimators of the expectation and standard deviation of the measurand, and the Monte Carlo method is used to propagate the uncertainties of the input parameters through the measurement model. This approach is illustrated by an example of the activity calibration of a 103Pd source by liquid scintillation counting and the calculation of a linear regression on experimental data points. An electronic supplement presents some algorithms which may be used to generate random numbers with various statistical distributions, for the implementation of this Monte Carlo calculation method.