Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ di↵erent numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should—except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably di↵erent. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively di↵erent behavior—although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

Baroclinic instability on hot extrasolar planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value cal- culations are carried out – focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high- resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot ex- trasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qual- itative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks – but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.

Methane in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Neptune GJ436b?

We present an analysis of seven primary transit observations of the hot Neptune GJ436b at 3.6, 4.5, and 8 μm obtained with the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. After correcting for systematic effects, we fitted the light curves using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Combining these new data with the EPOXI, Hubble Space Telescope, and ground-based V, I, H, and Ks published observations, the range 0.5-10 μm can be covered. Due to the low level of activity of GJ436, the effect of starspots on the combination of transits at different epochs is negligible at the accuracy of the data set. Representative climate models were calculated by using a three-dimensional, pseudospectral general circulation model with idealized thermal forcing. Simulated transit spectra of GJ436b were generated using line-by-line radiative transfer models including the opacities of the molecular species expected to be present in such a planetary atmosphere. A new, ab-initio-calculated, line list for hot ammonia has been used for the first time. The photometric data observed at multiple wavelengths can be interpreted with methane being the dominant absorption after molecular hydrogen, possibly with minor contributions from ammonia, water, and other molecules. No clear evidence of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide is found from transit photometry. We discuss this result in the light of a recent paper where photochemical disequilibrium is hypothesized to interpret secondary transit photometric data. We show that the emission photometric data are not incompatible with the presence of abundant methane, but further spectroscopic data are desirable to confirm this scenario.

Assessing the benefits of domestic hot fill washing appliances

Washing machine and dishwasher appliance use accounts for approximately 10% of electricity demand in EU households. The majority of this demand is due to the operation of electric heating elements inside appliances. This paper investigates the potential benefits that can be realised by adding a hot fill connection to washing appliances, with respect to carbon emissions, demand side management and renewable energy integration. Initial laboratory testing of new hot and cold fill appliances has resulted in modifications to optimise hot fill intake, and a novel numerical model presents a method of characterising appliance electricity use in different configurations. In order to validate model findings and test the use of new hot fill appliances in situ, a pilot study has recorded appliances’ resource consumption at one-minute resolution in fourteen households. The addition of hot fill reduced the total dishwasher and washing machine electricity consumption by 38% and 67% respectively. Depending on how hot water is supplied to appliances it is estimated that hot fill use results in an annual household carbon saving of up to 147 kgCO2. Further to direct electricity reduction, hot fill appliances can offer a method of time shifting demand away from peak periods without inconveniencing occupants’ lifestyles.

High-resolution melt and morphological analyses of mealybugs (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) from cacao: tools for the control of Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus spread

BACKGROUND: Mealybugs (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Pseudococcidae) are key vectors of badnaviruses, including Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) the most damaging virus affecting cacao (Theobroma cacao L.). The effectiveness of mealybugs as virus vectors is species dependent and it is therefore vital that CSSV resistance breeding programmes in cacao incorporate accurate mealybug identification. In this work the efficacy of a CO1-based DNA barcoding approach to species identification was evaluated by screening a range of mealybugs collected from cacao in seven countries. RESULTS: Morphologically similar adult females were characterised by scanning electron microscopy and then, following DNA extraction, were screened with CO1 barcoding markers. A high degree of CO1 sequence homology was observed for all 11 individual haplotypes including those accessions from distinct geographical regions. This has allowed for the design of a High Resolution Melt (HRM) assay capable of rapid identification of the commonly encountered mealybug pests of cacao. CONCLUSIONS: HRM Analysis (HRMA) readily differentiated between mealybug pests of cacao that can not necessarily be identified by conventional morphological analysis. This new approach, therefore, has potential to facilitate breeding for resistance to CSSV and other mealybug transmitted diseases.

Increases in the longevity of desiccation-phase developing rice seeds: response to high temperature drying depends on harvest moisture content

• Background and Aims Earlier studies have suggested that the drying conditions routinely used by genebanks may not be optimal for subsequent seed longevity. The aim of this study was to compare the effect of hot-air drying with low temperature drying on subsequent seed longevity for 20 diverse rice accessions and to consider how factors related to seed production history might influence the results. • Methods Seeds were produced according to normal regeneration procedures at IRRI. They were harvested at different times (harvest date and days after anthesis (DAA), once for each accession) and dried either in a drying room (DR; 15% RH, 15°C), or in a flat-bed heated-air batch dryer (BD; 45°C, 8 h d-1) for up to 6 daily cycles followed by drying in the DR. Relative longevity was assessed by storage at 10.9% moisture content (m.c.) and 45°C. • Key Results Initial drying in the BD resulted in significantly greater longevity compared with the DR for 14 accessions (seed lots): the period of time for viability to fall to 50% for seeds dried in the BD as a percentage of that for seeds dried throughout in the DR varied between 1.3 and 372.2% for these 14 accessions. The seed lots that responded the most were harvested earlier in the season and at higher moisture content. Drying in the BD did not reduce subsequent longevity compared with DR drying for any of the remaining accessions. • Conclusions Seeds harvested at a m.c. where, according to the moisture desorption isotherm, they could still be metabolically active (>16.2%), may be in the first stage of the post-mass maturity, desiccation phase of seed development and able to increase longevity in response to hot-air drying. The genebank standards regarding seed drying for rice and, perhaps, for other tropical species should be reconsidered.

Norepinephrine ignites local hot spots of neuronal excitation: how arousal amplifies selectivity in perception and memory

Arousal sometimes enhances and sometimes impairs perception and memory. In our Glutamate Amplifies Noradrenergic Effects (GANE) model, glutamate at active synapses interacts with norepinephrine released by the locus coeruleus to create local ‘hot spots’ of activity that enable the selective effects of arousal. This hot spot mechanism allows local cortical regions to self-regulate norepinephrine release based on current activation levels. In turn, hot spots bias global energetic delivery and functional network connectivity to enhance processing of high priority representations and impair processing of lower priority representations.

Microphase separation induced in the melt of Pluronic copolymers by blending with a hydrogen bonding urea–urethane end-capped supramolecular polymer

Blending with a hydrogen-bonding supramolecular polymer is shown to be a successful novel strategy to induce microphase-separation in the melt of a Pluronic polyether block copolymer. The supramolecular polymer is a polybutadiene derivative with urea–urethane end caps. Microphase separation is analysed using small-angle X-ray scattering and its influence on the macroscopic rheological properties is analysed. FTIR spectroscopy provides a detailed picture of the inter-molecular interactions between the polymer chains that induces conformational changes leading to microphase separation.

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

The Arctic sea ice retreat has accelerated over the last decade. The negative trend is largest in summer, but substantial interannual variability still remains. Here we explore observed atmospheric conditions and feedback mechanisms during summer months of anomalous sea ice melt in the Arctic. Compositing months of anomalous low and high sea ice melt over 1979–2013, we find distinct patterns in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, radiation, and temperature. Compared to summer months of anomalous low sea ice melt, high melt months are characterized by anomalous high sea level pressure in the Arctic (up to 7 hPa), with a corresponding tendency of storms to track on a more zonal path. As a result, the Arctic receives less precipitation overall and 39% less snowfall. This lowers the albedo of the region and reduces the negative feedback the snowfall provides for the sea ice. With an anticyclonic tendency, 12 W/m2 more incoming shortwave radiation reaches the surface in the start of the season. The melting sea ice in turn promotes cloud development in the marginal ice zones and enhances downwelling longwave radiation at the surface toward the end of the season. A positive cloud feedback emerges. In midlatitudes, the more zonally tracking cyclones give stormier, cloudier, wetter, and cooler summers in most of northern Europe and around the Sea of Okhotsk. Farther south, the region from the Mediterranean Sea to East Asia experiences significant surface warming (up to 2.4◦C), possibly linked to changes in the jet stream.

Sensitivity and variability redux in hot-Jupiter flow simulations

We revisit the issue of sensitivity to initial flow and intrinsic variability in hot-Jupiter atmospheric flow simulations, originally investigated by Cho et al. (2008) and Thrastarson & Cho (2010). The flow in the lower region (~1 to 20 MPa) `dragged' to immobility and uniform temperature on a very short timescale, as in Liu & Showman (2013), leads to effectively a complete cessation of variability as well as sensitivity in three-dimensional (3D) simulations with traditional primitive equations. Such momentum (Rayleigh) and thermal (Newtonian) drags are, however, ad hoc for 3D giant planet simulations. For 3D hot-Jupiter simulations, which typically already employ strong Newtonian drag in the upper region, sensitivity is not quenched if only the Newtonian drag is applied in the lower region, without the strong Rayleigh drag: in general, both sensitivity and variability persist if the two drags are not applied concurrently in the lower region. However, even when the drags are applied concurrently, vertically-propagating planetary waves give rise to significant variability in the ~0.05 to 0.5 MPa region, if the vertical resolution of the lower region is increased (e.g. here with 1000 layers for the entire domain). New observations on the effects of the physical setup and model convergence in ‘deep’ atmosphere simulations are also presented.

"When I go to bed hungry and sleep, I'm not hungry": children and parents' experiences of food insecurity

Evidence demonstrates food insecurity has a detrimental impact on a range of outcomes for children, but little research has been conducted in the UK, and children have rarely been asked to describe their experiences directly. We examined the experiences of food insecure families living in South London. Our mixed-methods approach comprised a survey of parents (n = 72) and one-to-one semi-structured interviews with children aged 5-11 years (n = 19). The majority of parents (86%) described their food security during the preceding year as very low. Most reported they had often or sometimes had insufficient food, and almost all had worried about running out of food. Two thirds of parents had gone hungry. Most parents reported they had been unable to afford a nutritionally balanced diet for their children, and just under half reported that their children had gone hungry. Four themes emerged from the interviews with children: sources of food; security of food, nutritional quality of food, and experiences of hunger. Children's descriptions of insufficient food being available indicate that parents are not always able to shield them from the impact of food insecurity. The lack of school-meals and after-school clubs serving food made weekends particularly problematic for some children. A notable consequence of food insecurity appears to be reliance on low-cost takeaway food, likely to be nutritionally poor.

The 2014 hot, dry summer in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia experienced a severe drought in summer 2014. Sea surface temperature forcing may have increased the risk of low precipitation, but model biases preclude reliable attribution to anthropogenic forcing.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

The refreezing of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice

The presence of melt ponds on the surface of Arctic sea ice significantly reduces its albedo, inducing a positive feedback leading to sea ice thinning. While the role of melt ponds in enhancing the summer melt of sea ice is well known, their impact on suppressing winter freezing of sea ice has, hitherto, received less attention. Melt ponds freeze by forming an ice lid at the upper surface, which insulates them from the atmosphere and traps pond water between the underlying sea ice and the ice lid. The pond water is a store of latent heat, which is released during refreezing. Until a pond freezes completely, there can be minimal ice growth at the base of the underlying sea ice. In this work, we present a model of the refreezing of a melt pond that includes the heat and salt balances in the ice lid, trapped pond, and underlying sea ice. The model uses a two-stream radiation model to account for radiative scattering at phase boundaries. Simulations and related sensitivity studies suggest that trapped pond water may survive for over a month. We focus on the role that pond salinity has on delaying the refreezing process and retarding basal sea ice growth. We estimate that for a typical sea ice pond coverage in autumn, excluding the impact of trapped ponds in models overestimates ice growth by up to 265 million km3, an overestimate of 26%.