Portfolio choice with a correlated background risk : theory and evidence

We extend the static portfolio choice problem with a small background risk to the case of small partially correlated background risks. We show that respecting the theories under which risk substitution appears, except for the independence of background risk, it is perfectly rational for the individual to increase his optimal exposure to portfolio risk when risks are partially negatively correlated. Then, we test empirically the hypothesis of risk substitutability using INSEE data on French households. We find that households respond by increasing their stockholdings in response to the increase in future earnings uncertainty. This conclusion is in contradiction with results obtained in other countries. So, in light of these results, our model provides an explanation to account for the lack of empirical consensus on cross-country tests of risk substitution theory that encompasses and criticises all of them.

Wrong-way risk in stock swaps : measuring counterparty credit risk and CVA

Uma forma interessante para uma companhia que pretende assumir uma posição comprada em suas próprias ações ou lançar futuramente um programa de recompra de ações, mas sem precisar dispor de caixa ou ter que contratar um empréstimo, ou então se protegendo de uma eventual alta no preço das ações, é através da contratação de um swap de ações. Neste swap, a companhia fica ativa na variação de sua própria ação enquanto paga uma taxa de juros pré ou pós-fixada. Contudo, este tipo de swap apresenta risco wrong-way, ou seja, existe uma dependência positiva entre a ação subjacente do swap e a probabilidade de default da companhia, o que precisa ser considerado por um banco ao precificar este tipo de swap. Neste trabalho propomos um modelo para incorporar a dependência entre probabilidades de default e a exposição à contraparte no cálculo do CVA para este tipo de swap. Utilizamos um processo de Cox para modelar o instante de ocorrência de default, dado que a intensidade estocástica de default segue um modelo do tipo CIR, e assumindo que o fator aleatório presente na ação subjacente e que o fator aleatório presente na intensidade de default são dados conjuntamente por uma distribuição normal padrão bivariada. Analisamos o impacto no CVA da incorporação do riscowrong-way para este tipo de swap com diferentes contrapartes, e para diferentes prazos de vencimento e níveis de correlação.

An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

Cancer risk assessment of ethyl carbamate in alcoholic beverages from Brazil with special consideration to the spirits cachaca and tiquira

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Absence of DNA damage in multiple organs (blood, liver, kidney, thyroid gland and urinary bladder) after acute fluoride exposure in rats

Fluoride has been widely used in dentistry as a caries prophylactic agent. However, there has been some speculation that excess fluoride could cause an impact on genome integrity. In the current study, the potential DNA damage associated with exposure to fluoride was assessed in cells of blood, liver, kidney, thyroid gland and urinary bladder by the single cell gel (comet) assay. Male Wistar rats aging 75 days were distributed into seven groups: Groups 1 (control), 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 received 0 (deionized water), 10, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 mgF/Kg body weight from sodium fluoride (NaF), respectively, by gastrogavage. These groups were killed at 2 h after the administration of the fluoride doses. The level of DNA strand breaks did not increase in all organs evaluated and at all doses of NaF tested, as depicted by the mean tail moment. Taken together, our results suggest that oral exposure to NaF did not result in systemic genotoxic effect in multiple organs related to fluoride toxicity. Since DNA damage is an important step in events leading to carcinogenesis, this study represents a relevant contribution to the correct evaluation of the potential health risk associated with chemical exposure.

Genomic instability in blood cells is able to predict the oral cancer risk: an experimental study in rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Using the current Brazilian value for the biological exposure limit applied to blood lead level as a lead poisoning diagnostic criterion

Tradicionalmente, os limites de tolerância biológica são utilizados exclusivamente para a promoção e a preservação da saúde dos trabalhadores, não sendo aplicados com fins diagnósticos. Entretanto, com relação a algumas intoxicações profissionais, o assunto é polêmico. Neste artigo, defende-se a utilização do limite de tolerância aplicado atualmente no Brasil à plumbemia como um critério importante para a realização do diagnóstico da intoxicação profissional pelo chumbo. Argumenta-se que, em oposição ao tradicional critério clínico, deve-se abordar o problema do diagnóstico da intoxicação pelo chumbo sob um ponto de vista epidemiológico, utilizando-se o atual valor do limite de tolerância para a plumbemia como um marcador de risco relativo significativamente aumentado.

Effect of alpha-tocopherol on superoxide radical and toxicity of cadmium exposure

Contamination with cadmium compounds poses high potential risk for the health of populations and for this reason the treatment of their toxic effects should urgently be established. The present study was carried out to determine whether or-tocopherol intake can protect tissues against damage induced by cadmium, and to clarify the contribution of superoxide radicals (O-2(-)) in this process. Cadmium chloride was tested for tissue damage by a single intraperitoneal injection of Cd2+ ions (2 mg Kg(-1)). To determine the potential therapeutic effect of Vitamin E, a group of Cd2+-treated rats received a drinking solution of or-tocopherol (40 mg l(-1)) for 15 days. Cadmium induced increased serum creatinine and total lactate dehydrogenase, reflecting renal and cardiac damage. The increased lipoperoxide and decreased Cu-Zn superoxide dismutase levels indicated the generation of superoxide radicals in cadmium-treated rats. Tocopherol induced increased serum high-density lipoprotein and depressed the toxic effects of Ca2+ alone, since creatinine and lactate dehydrogenase determinations were recovered to the control values. Tocopherol decreased lipoperoxide and led the superoxide dismutase activities to approach those of the control values. We concluded that superoxide radicals are produced as mediators of cadmium toxicity. Tocopherol possesses a significant anti-radical activity and inhibits the cadmium effect on superoxide dismutase activity. Tocopherol also protected tissues from the toxic effects of cadmium by a direct antioxidant action which decreased lipoperoxide formation.

Dental fluorosis: Exposure, prevention and management

Dental fluorosis is a developmental disturbance of dental enamel, caused by successive exposures to high concentrations of fluoride during tooth development, leading to enamel with lower mineral content and increased porosity. The severity of dental fluorosis depends on when and for how long the overexposure to fluoride occurs, the individual response, weight, degree of physical activity, nutritional factors and bone growth. The risk period for esthetic changes in permanent teeth is between 20 and 30 months of age. The recommended level for daily fluoride intake is 0.05 - 0.07 mg F/Kg/day, which is considered of great help in preventing dental caries, acting in remineralization. A daily intake above this safe level leads to an increased risk of dental fluorosis. Currently recommended procedures for diagnosis of fluorosis should discriminate between symmetrical and asymmetrical and/or discrete patterns of opaque defects. Fluorosis can be prevented by having an adequate knowledge of the fluoride sources, knowing how to manage this issue and therefore, avoid overexposure.

PM2.5 and PM10: The influence of sugarcane burning on potential cancer risk

In Brazil, sugarcane fields are often burned to facilitate manual harvesting, and this burning causes environmental pollution from the large amounts of soot released into the atmosphere. This material contains numerous organic compounds such as PAHs. In this study, the concentrations of PAHs in two particulate-matter fractions (PM2.5 and PM10) in the city of Araraquara (SE Brazil, with around 200,000 inhabitants and surrounded by sugarcane plantations) were determined during the sugarcane harvest (HV) and non-harvest (NHV) seasons in 2008 and 2009. The sampling strategy included four campaigns, with 60 samples in the NHV season and 220 samples in the HV season. The PM2.5 and PM10 fractions were collected using a dichotomous sampler (10 L min(-1), 24 h) with Teflon (TM) filters. The filter sets were extracted (ultrasonic bath with hexane/acetone (1:1 v/v)) and analyzed by HPLC/Fluorescence. The median concentration for total PAHs (PM2.5 in 2009) was 0.99 ng m(-3) (NHV) and 3.3 ng m(-3) (HV). In the HV season, the total concentration of carcinogenic PAHs (benz(a)anthracene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, and benzo(a)pyrene) was 5 times higher than in the NHV season. B(a)P median concentrations were 0.017 ng m(-3) and 0.12 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. The potential cancer risk associated with exposure through inhalation of these compounds was estimated based on the benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalence (BaPeq), where the overall toxicity of a PAR mixture is defined by the concentration of each compound multiplied by its relative toxic equivalence factor (TEF). BaPeq median (2008 and 2009 years) ranged between 0.65 and 1.0 ng m(-3) and 1.2-1.4 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. Considering that the maximum permissible BaPeq in ambient air is 1 ng m(-3), related to the increased carcinogenic risk, our data suggest that the level of human exposure to PAHs in cities surrounded by sugarcane crops where the burning process is used is cause for concern. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Landfills as risk factors for respiratory disease in children

Objective: To investigate the relationship between exposure to a landfill site closed 6 years previously and respiratory symptoms in children aged up to 13 years.Method: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in Varzea Paulista, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. One adult in every household in a neighborhood close to the landfill and from a randomized sample of households in another neighborhood with similar socioeconomic characteristics but no landfill were interviewed and asked about respiratory symptoms and other variables relating to children aged up to 13. A logistic regression model was used to study this relationship.Results: The likelihood of a child having respiratory symptoms was a function of -2.36 + 0.43 if the child was less than 2 years old; + 0.24 if the child lived in the landfill area; -0.67 if there was a computer at home; + 0.54 if firewood was burnt in the home in the last year; + 0.94 if the child was diagnosed with asthma; + 0.87 if the child visited a health service in the previous 30 days.Conclusion: The authors conclude that living near to a landfill closed 6 years previously may be a risk factor for respiratory disease in children.

Increased corticosterone levels in mice subjected to the rat exposure test

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Toxic effects of nickel exposure on heart and liver of rats

The role of air pollution as a health risk factor is of special interest. Numerous toxic pollutants, such as nickel, are being released to the environment as a result of combustion of fossil fuels, crude oil, and coal. Nickel in the atmosphere can be combined with other environmental pollutants, producing various nickel compounds, which have varying animal toxicity. A rat biossay validated for the identification of toxic effects of nickel revealed increased serum activities of total lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and alanine transaminase (ALT) in rats that received intratracheal injection of Ni2+ in .09% saline solution of NiCl2. The total LDH activity was also increased in the heart, and the isoenzyme pattern showed the LDH1/LDH2 ratio elevated to greater than 1. We conclude that intratracheal administration of nickel induced cardiac and hepatic damage. The development of cardiac and hepatic damage and of increased enzymes' activities was only demonstrated when nickel had accumulated in these tissues, indicating that nickel depot is essential to its toxicity. Intratracheal administration of NiCl2 induced changes in LDH and ALT activities.

Developmental and behavioral effects of postnatal amitraz exposure in rats

The effects of postnatal amitraz exposure on physical and behavioral parameters were studied in Wistar rats, whose lactating dams received the pesticide (10 mg/Kg) orally on days 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16 and 19 of lactation; control dams received distilled water (1 ml/kg) on the same days. A total of 18 different litters (9 of them control and 9 experimental) born after a 21- day gestation were used. The results showed that the median effective time (ET50) for fur development, eye opening, testis descent and onset of the startle response were increased in rats postnatally exposed to amitraz (2.7, 15.1, 21.6 and 15.3 days, respectively) compared to those of the control pups (1.8, 14.0, 19.9 and 12.9 days, respectively). The ages of incisor eruption, total unfolding of the external ears, vaginal and ear opening and the time taken to perform the grasping hindlimb reflex were not affected by amitraz exposure. Pups from dams treated with amitraz during lactation took more time (in seconds) to perform the surface righting reflex on postnatal days (PND) 3 (25.0 ±2.0), 4 (12.3 ± 1.2) and 5 (8.7 ± 0.9) in relation to controls (10.6 ± 1.2; 4.5 ± 0.6 and 3.4 ± 0.4, respectively); the climbing response was not changed by amitraz. Postnatal amitraz exposure increased spontaneous motor activity of male and female pups in the open-field on PND 16 (140± 11)and 17(124± 12), and 16 (104±9), 17 (137 ± 9) and 18 (106 ± 8), respectively. Data on spontaneous motor activity of the control male and female pups were 59 ± 11 and 69 ± 10 for days 16 and 17 and 49 ± 9, 48 ± 7 and 56 ± 7 for days 16, 17 and 18, respectively. Some qualitative differences were also observed in spontaneous motor behavior; thus, raising the head, shoulder and pelvis matured one or two days later in the amitraz- treated offspring. Postnatal amitraz exposure did not change locomotion and rearing frequencies or immobility time in the open-field on PND 30, 60 and 90. The present findings indicate that postnatal exposure to amitraz caused transient developmental and behavioral changes in the exposed offspring and suggest that further investigation of the potential health risk of amitraz exposure to developing human and animal offsprings may be warranted.

Cigarette smoking and high-risk HPV DNA as predisposing factors for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in young Brazilian women

Background. This cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the role of cigarette smoking and high-risk HPV types as risk factors of CIN 2 and 3 in young, sexually active Brazilian women. Materials and method. A series of 100 consecutive women with abnormal Pap smears were recruited, subjected to colposcopy, punch biopsy, and questionnaire for their social, sexual and reproductive factors. Of these, 77 women between 20 and 35 years of age (median 26.5 years) with biopsy-confirmed CIN 1 or CIN 2 and 3, were enrolled in this study. Representative samples from the exocervix and endocervix were obtained for HPV testing with the Hybrid Capture HPV-DNA assay, including the probes for the oncogenic HPV types (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 51, 52 and 56). Results. The overall rate of CIN 2 and 3 was 23/77 (29.8%). The women with CIN 1, 2 and 3 did not differ from each other with regard to their age, race, schooling, marital status, life-time number of sexual partners, age at first intercourse, use of oral contraceptives, or parity. However, current cigarette smoking was strongly associated with CIN 2 and 3 (p < 0,001), and among smokers, the risk of high-grade CIN increased in parallel with the time of exposure (years of smoking) p = 0.07), HPV-DNA of the oncogenic types was detected in 43 (56%) women, the risk of being HPV DNA-positive was significantly higher in CIN 2 and 3 as compared with CIN 1 (p = 0.037). Importantly, the prevalence of high-risk HPV types was significantly higher in cigarette smokers than in non-smokers (p = 0.046). Conclusions. The results indicate that the severity of CIN lesions was clearly related to two fundamental risk factors: 1) high-risk HPV types, and 2) current cigarette smoking. These two risk factors were closely interrelated in that the high-risk HPV types were significantly more frequent in current smokers than in non-smokers, suggesting the possibility of a synergistic action between these two risk factors in cervical carcinogenesis.