Costs of female reproduction in a conifer tree: a whole-tree level assessment

1. Costs of reproduction lie at the core of basic ecological and evolutionary theories, and their existence is commonly invoked to explain adaptive processes. Despite their sheer importance, empirical evidence for the existence and quantification of costs of reproduction in tree species comes mostly from correlational studies, while more comprehensive approaches remain missing. Manipulative experiments are a preferred approach to study cost of reproduction, as they allow controlling for otherwise inherent confounding factors like size or genetic background. 2. Here, we conducted a manipulative experiment in a Pinus halepensis common garden, removing developing cones from a group of trees and comparing growth and reproduction after treatment with a control group. We also estimated phenotypic and genetic correlations between reproductive and vegetative traits. 3. Manipulated trees grew slightly more than control trees just after treatment, with just a transient, marginally non-significant difference. By contrast, larger differences were observed for the number of female cones initiated 1 year after treatment, with an increase of 70% more cones in the manipulated group. Phenotypic and genetic correlations showed that smaller trees invested a higher proportion of their resources in reproduction, compared with larger trees, which could be interpreted as an indirect evidence for costs of reproduction. 4. Synthesis. This research showed a high impact of current reproduction on reproductive potential, even when not significant on vegetative growth. This has strong implications for how we understand adaptive strategies in forest trees and should encourage further interest on their still poorly known reproductive life-history traits.

Business Development Efforts and Performance Improvements in SMEs Case Study of Business Development Projects Implemented in SME

Under the circumstances of the increasing market pressure, enterprises try to improve their competitive position by development efforts, and a business development project is one tool for that. There are not many answers to the question of how the development projects launched to improve the business performance in SMEs have succeeded. Theacademic interest in the business development project success has mainly focused on projects implemented in larger organisations rather than in SMEs. The previous studies on the business success of SMEs have mainly focused on new business ventures rather than on existing SMEs. However, nowadays a large number of business development projects are undertaken in existing SMEs, where they can pose a great challenge. This study focuses on business development success in SMEs thathave already established their business. The objective of the present study is to gain a deep understanding on business development project success in the SME-context and to identify the dimensions and factors affecting the project success. Further, the aim is to clarify how the business development projects implemented in SMEs have affected their performance. The empirical evidence is based on multiple case study. This study builds a framework for a generic theory of business development success in the SME-context, based on literature from the areas ofproject and change management, entrepreneurship and small business management, as well as performance measurement, and on empirical evidence from SMES. The framework consists of five success dimensions: entrepreneurial, project preparation, change management, project management and project success. The framework provides a systematic way for analysing the business development project and its impact on the performance and on the performing company. This case evidence indicates that successful business development projects have a balanced, high performance concerning all the dimensions. Good performance in one dimension is not enoughfor the project success, but it gives a good ground for the other dimensions. The other way round, poor performance in one success dimension affects the others, leading to poor performance of the project. In the SME-context the business development project success seems to be dependent on several interrelated dimensions and factors. Success in one area leads to success in other areas, and so creates an upward success spiral. Failure in one area seems to lead to failure in other areas, creating a downward failure spiral. The study indicates that the internal business development projects have affected the SMEs' performance widely also on areas and functions not initially targeted. The implications cover all thesuccess categories: the project efficiency, the impact on the customer, the business success and the future potentiality. With successful cases, the success tends to spread out to areas and functions not mentioned as the project goals, andwith unsuccessful cases the failure seems to spread out widely to the SMEs' other functions. This study also indicates that the most important key factors for successful business development project implementation are the strength of intention, business ability, knowledge, motivation and participation of the employees, as well as adequate and well-timed training provided to the employees.

Political centralization and government accountability

This paper studies fiscal federalism when regions differ in voters' ability to monitor publicofficials. We develop a model of political agency in which rent-seeking politicians providepublic goods to win support from heterogeneously informed voters. In equilibrium, voterinformation increases government accountability but displays decreasing returns. Therefore,political centralization reduces aggregate rent extraction when voter information varies acrossregions. It increases welfare as long as the central government is required to provide publicgoods uniformly across regions. The need for uniformity implies an endogenous trade off between reducing rents through centralization and matching idiosyncratic preferences throughdecentralization. We find that a federal structure with overlapping levels of government canbe optimal only if regional differences in accountability are sufficiently large. The modelpredicts that less informed regions should reap greater benefits when the central governmentsets a uniform policy. Consistent with our theory, we present empirical evidence that lessinformed states enjoyed faster declines in pollution after the 1970 Clean Air Act centralizedenvironmental policy at the federal level.

More Money, Fewer Problems? Cross-Level Effects of Economic Deprivation on Political Representation

While equal political representation of all citizens is a fundamental democratic goal, it is hampered empirically in a multitude of ways. This study examines how the societal level of economic inequality affects the representation of relatively poor citizens by parties and governments. Using CSES survey data for citizens' policy preferences and expert placements of political parties, empirical evidence is found that in economically more unequal societies, the party system represents the preferences of relatively poor citizens worse than in more equal societies. This moderating effect of economic equality is also found for policy congruence between citizens and governments, albeit slightly less clear-cut.

Tapahtumamarkkinointi osana business-to-business asiakassuhteiden hoitamista

Tämän tutkielman päätavoitteena oli tarkastella tapahtumamarkkinoinnin roolia business-to-business asiakassuhteiden hoitamisessa. Tutkielma jakautuu teoreettiseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Teoriaosan lähdeaineistona käytettiin keskeisiä suhdemarkkinoinnin, markkinointiviestinnän ja tapahtumamarkkinoinnin teoksia sekä artikkeleja. Empiirinen aineisto kerättiin suorittamalla kyselytutkimus valitulle harkintaotokselle sekä haastattelemalla tarkemmin kolmen yrityksen edustajaa. Teoriaosassa nousi esiin, että erityisesti tapahtuman valinta on kriittinen tekijä onnistumisen kannalta. Tapahtumamarkkinointi tarvitsee myös tuekseen muuta viestintää. Tutkielman tulosten perusteella tapahtumamarkkinoinnin rooli asiakassuhteiden hoitamisessa on melko pieni, mutta silti hyvin tärkeä. Tapahtumamarkkinointia sovelletaan pääosin parhaimmille ja suurimmille yritysasiakkaille. Tulevaisuudessa tapahtumien osuus suhdemarkkinoinnissa tulee tulosten mukaan kasvamaan.

Field Sales Management Control: Towards a Multi-Level Theory

The purpose of this dissertation is to increase the understanding and knowledge of field sales management control systems (i.e. sales managers monitoring, directing, evaluating and rewarding activities) and their potential consequences on salespeople. This topic is important because research conducted in the past has indicated that the choice of control system type can on the other hand have desirable consequences, such as high levels of motivation and performance, and on the other hand leadto harmful unintended consequences, such as opportunistic or unethical behaviors. Despite the fact that marketing and sales management control systems have been under rigorous research for over two decades, it still is at a very early stage of development, and several inconsistencies can be found in the research results. This dissertation argues that these inconsistencies are mainly derived from misspecification of the level of analysis in the past research. These different levels of analysis (i.e. strategic, tactical, and operational levels) involve very different decision-making situations regarding the control and motivation of sales force, which should be taken into consideration when conceptualizing the control. Moreover, the study of salesperson consequences of a field sales management control system is actually a cross-level phenomenon, which means that at least two levels of analysis are simultaneously involved. The results of this dissertation confirm the need to re-conceptualize the field sales management control system concept. It provides empirical evidence for the assertion that control should be conceptualized with more details atthe tactical/operational level of analysis than at the strategic levelof analysis. Moreover, the results show that some controls are more efficiently communicated to field salespeople than others. It is proposed that this difference is due to different purposes of control; some controls aredesigned for influencing salespersons' behavior (aim at motivating) whereas some controls are designed to aid decision-making (aim at providing information). According to the empirical results of this dissertation, the both types of controls have an impact to the sales force, but this impactis not as strong as expected. The results obtained in this dissertation shed some light to the nature of field sales management control systems, and their consequences on salespeopl

Exploration of the social dimension of corporate responsibility in a welfare state

This study focuses on corporate social responsibility (or CSR)as the latest dimension to emerge in the corporate responsibility and sustainability agenda, which in the recent past has rapidly risen to the top of the list of concerns for civil societies worldwide. Despite the continuing debates and discussions about the scope, benefits, and impacts of CSR to business and community in various sectors, levels, and types of society, many companies have moved forward to confront the opportunities and challenges of CSR. Thus, this study is about those proactive companies with a focus on the importance of CSR and its management inside and outside the company. It is an exploration and learning from the experience of Finnish companies, as well as other actors interested or involved in shaping the course of CSR, locally and globally. It also looks closely at how national culture affects the views, thinking, and management of CSR in a welfare state. This dissertation primarily draws on the analyses of information collected from a series of qualitative interviews and the existing literature in the area. This is complemented by an analysis of written and published documents on CSR from various sources. The results of the study give insightful information and detailed descriptions of a roadmap useful in learning and understanding CSR in Finnish companies. Despite the varying conceptual connotations, essential roadmap indicators point to the importance of framing CSR within the corporate responsibility concept, Finnish development and the welfare state system, globalization, stakeholders, and the pursuit of sustainable development as the main drivers of CSR, the remarkable progress of CSR in companies, and identification of key management areas and practices relevant to CSR. Similarly,the study reveals the importance of culture as essential in understanding and learning CSR. Finnish culture has a positive influence on the views, thinking, and management practices of CSR issues. Such a positive influence of culture, therefore, makes it easy for business people to discuss and understand CSR, because those CSR issues are already considered common and taken-for-granted by Finns and are implicit in the welfare state provisions. The experience of Finnish companies in implementing CSR policies in the supply chain is a concrete proactive step in advancing the message of CSR, that is, to bring companies and suppliers together to work on improving and strengthening relationships towards socially responsible practices worldwide. Such a forward step to deal with CSR issues in the supply chain reflects the companies' commitments and belief that CSR can be managed with the suppliers and gain positive benefits. Despite the problems and complexities, particularly in the global supply chain, managing CSR for Finnish companies presents new opportunities and challenges that are expected to intensify in the near future. The focus on CSR policy implementation inthe supply chain points to the importance of companies taking initiatives and forging cooperation with suppliers with the aim of addressing and improving CSR questions in the supply chains. The proactive stance of Finnish companies toward CSR is complemented by the active supporting role of important societalactors such as the government and NGOs. These actors carry out various promotional efforts and campaigns, thus bringing CSR into the mainstream of Finnish companies and strengthening the synergistic learning about CSR within the Finnish business and civil circles. The efforts of the government and NGOs to promote CSR are indicative of the importance of multipartite involvement and the emergence of better civil regulations. Likewise, their drive to learn from each other, exchange experiences, and contribute in CSR debates facilitated the evolution of CSRnetworks in the country. The results of this study add to the mounting evidence that CSR, in general, has created a new dimension in managing corporate sustainability. This study provides compelling empirical evidence and some direct quotations about CSR in the Finnish context. This information can be used to learn and gain new useful insights, approaches, and concepts for managing CSR.

Dynamic Capabilities and Firm Performance

Firms operating in a changing environment have a need for structures and practices that provide flexibility and enable rapid response to changes. Given the challenges they face in attempts to keep up with market needs, they have to continuously improve their processes and products, and develop new products to match market requirements. Success in changing markets depends on the firm's ability to convert knowledge into innovations, and consequently their internal structures and capabilities have an important role in innovation activities. According 10 the dynamic capability view of the firm, firms thus need dynamic capabilities in (he form ofassets, processes and structures that enable strategic flexibility and support entrepreneurial opportunity sensing and exploitation. Dynamic capabilities are also needed in conditions of rapid change in the operating environment, and in activities such as new product development and expansion to new markets. Despite the growing interest in these issues and the theoretical developments in the field of strategy research, there are still only very few empirical studies, and large-scale empirical studies in particular, that provide evidence that firms'dynamic capabilities are reflected in performance differences. This thesis represents an attempt to advance the research by providing empirical evidence of thelinkages between the firm's dynamic capabilities and performance in intenationalization and innovation activities. The aim is thus to increase knowledge and enhance understanding of the organizational factors that explain interfirm performance differences. The study is in two parts. The first part is the introduction and the second part comprises five research publications covering the theoretical foundations of the dynamic capability view and subsequent empirical analyses. Quantitative research methodology is used throughout. The thesis contributes to the literature in several ways. While a lot of prior research on dynamic capabilities is conceptual in nature, or conducted through case studies, this thesis introduces empirical measures for assessing the different aspects, and uses large-scale sampling to investigate the relationships between them and performance indicators. The dynamic capability view is further developed by integrating theoretical frameworks and research traditions from several disciplines. The results of the study provide support for the basic tenets of the dynamic capability view. The empirical findings demonstrate that the firm's ability to renew its knowledge base and other intangible assets, its proactive, entrepreneurial behavior, and the structures and practices that support operational flexibility arepositively related to performance indicators.

Coping with Technology: A Study on Economic Methodology and Strategic Management of Technology

There is a broad consensus among economists that technologicalchange has been a major contributor to the productivity growth and, hence, to the growth of the material welfare in western industrialized countries at least over the last century. Paradoxically, this issue has not been the focal point of theoretical economics. At the same time, we have witnessed the rise of the importance of technological issues at the strategic management level of business firms. Interestingly, the research has not accurately responded to this challenge either. The tension between the overwhelming empirical evidence of the importance of technology and its relative omission in the research offers a challenging target for a methodological endeavor. This study deals with the question of how different theories cope with technology and explain technological change. The focusis at the firm level and the analysis concentrates on metatheoretical issues, except for the last two chapters, which examine the problems of strategic management of technology. Here the aim is to build a new evolutionary-based theoreticalframework to analyze innovation processes at the firm level. The study consistsof ten chapters. Chapter 1 poses the research problem and contrasts the two basic approaches, neoclassical and evolutionary, to be analyzed. Chapter 2 introduces the methodological framework which is based on the methodology of isolation. Methodological and ontoogical commitments of the rival approaches are revealed and basic questions concerning their ways of theorizing are elaborated. Chapters 3-6 deal with the so-called substantive isolative criteria. The aim is to examine how different approaches cope with such critical issues as inherent uncertainty and complexity of innovative activities (cognitive isolations, chapter 3), theboundedness of rationality of innovating agents (behavioral isolations, chapter4), the multidimensional nature of technology (chapter 5), and governance costsrelated to technology (chapter 6). Chapters 7 and 8 put all these things together and look at the explanatory structures used by the neoclassical and evolutionary approaches in the light of substantive isolations. The last two cpahters of the study utilize the methodological framework and tools to appraise different economics-based candidates in the context of strategic management of technology. The aim is to analyze how different approaches answer the fundamental question: How can firms gain competitive advantages through innovations and how can the rents appropriated from successful innovations be sustained? The last chapter introduces a new evolutionary-based technology management framework. Also the largely omitted issues of entrepreneurship are examined.

Project Success through Effective Decisions: Case Studies on Project Goal Setting, Success Evaluation and Managerial Decision Making

The objective of the thesis is to structure and model the factors that contribute to and can be used in evaluating project success. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of three research topics. The goal setting process, success evaluation and decision-making process are studied in the context of a project, business unitand its business environment. To achieve the objective three research questionsare posed. These are 1) how to set measurable project goals, 2) how to evaluateproject success and 3) how to affect project success with managerial decisions.The main theoretical contribution comes from deriving a synthesis of these research topics which have mostly been discussed apart from each other in prior research. The research strategy of the study has features from at least the constructive, nomothetical, and decision-oriented research approaches. This strategy guides the theoretical and empirical part of the study. Relevant concepts and a framework are composed on the basis of the prior research contributions within the problem area. A literature review is used to derive constructs of factors withinthe framework. They are related to project goal setting, success evaluation, and decision making. On the basis of this, the case study method is applied to complement the framework. The empirical data includes one product development program, three construction projects, as well as one organization development, hardware/software, and marketing project in their contexts. In two of the case studiesthe analytic hierarchy process is used to formulate a hierarchical model that returns a numerical evaluation of the degree of project success. It has its origin in the solution idea which in turn has its foundation in the notion of projectsuccess. The achieved results are condensed in the form of a process model thatintegrates project goal setting, success evaluation and decision making. The process of project goal setting is analysed as a part of an open system that includes a project, the business unit and its competitive environment. Four main constructs of factors are suggested. First, the project characteristics and requirements are clarified. The second and the third construct comprise the components of client/market segment attractiveness and sources of competitive advantage. Together they determine the competitive position of a business unit. Fourth, the relevant goals and the situation of a business unit are clarified to stress their contribution to the project goals. Empirical evidence is gained on the exploitation of increased knowledge and on the reaction to changes in the business environment during a project to ensure project success. The relevance of a successful project to a company or a business unit tends to increase the higher the reference level of project goals is set. However, normal performance or sometimes performance below this normal level is intentionally accepted. Success measures make project success quantifiable. There are result-oriented, process-oriented and resource-oriented success measures. The study also links result measurements to enablers that portray the key processes. The success measures can be classified into success domains determining the areas on which success is assessed. Empiricalevidence is gained on six success domains: strategy, project implementation, product, stakeholder relationships, learning situation and company functions. However, some project goals, like safety, can be assessed using success measures that belong to two success domains. For example a safety index is used for assessing occupational safety during a project, which is related to project implementation. Product safety requirements, in turn, are connected to the product characteristics and thus to the product-related success domain. Strategic success measures can be used to weave the project phases together. Empirical evidence on their static nature is gained. In order-oriented projects the project phases are oftencontractually divided into different suppliers or contractors. A project from the supplier's perspective can represent only a part of the ¿whole project¿ viewed from the client's perspective. Therefore static success measures are mostly used within the contractually agreed project scope and duration. Proof is also acquired on the dynamic use of operational success measures. They help to focus on the key issues during each project phase. Furthermore, it is shown that the original success domains and success measures, their weights and target values can change dynamically. New success measures can replace the old ones to correspond better with the emphasis of the particular project phase. This adjustment concentrates on the key decision milestones. As a conclusion, the study suggests a combination of static and dynamic success measures. Their linkage to an incentive system can make the project management proactive, enable fast feedback and enhancethe motivation of the personnel. It is argued that the sequence of effective decisions is closely linked to the dynamic control of project success. According to the used definition, effective decisions aim at adequate decision quality and decision implementation. The findings support that project managers construct and use a chain of key decision milestones to evaluate and affect success during aproject. These milestones can be seen as a part of the business processes. Different managers prioritise the key decision milestones to a varying degree. Divergent managerial perspectives, power, responsibilities and involvement during a project offer some explanation for this. Finally, the study introduces the use ofHard Gate and Soft Gate decision milestones. The managers may use the former milestones to provide decision support on result measurements and ad hoc critical conditions. In the latter milestones they may make intermediate success evaluation also on the basis of other types of success measures, like process and resource measures.

TUOTE- VAI LIIKETOIMINTAOSAAMISTA? Pienten ja keskisuurten leipomoalan yritysten strategiset valinnat, liikkeenjohdon käytännöt ja menestyminen

Tutkimuksen aiheeksi valittiin yrityksen strategiset valinnat eli ne näkökulmat ja keinot, joiden avulla yritys toimii selviytyäkseen kilpailussa. Erityisesti tutkittiin osaamisen ja yleensäkin muun kuin fyysisiin tuotteisiin liittyvien yrityksen ominaisuuksien ja toimintatapojen liittymistä yrityksen menestymiseen. Lisäksi tutkittiin yrityksissä noudatettuja liikkeenjohdon käytäntöjä ja menetelmiä suhteessa strategisiin valintoihin. Tutkimuksen kohdetoimialaksi valittiin oli leipomoala, joka on suomalaisen elintarviketeollisuuden toimipaikkojen lukumäärällä mitattuna runsaslukuisin yksittäinen toimiala. Tutkimus toteutettiin lomakekyselynä, johon vastasi 90 suomalaista leipomoalan yritystä, jotka työllistivät enintään 49 henkilöä. Ryhmittelyanalyysin avulla kohdeyrityksistä muodostettiin neljä yritysryhmää erityisesti dynaamisuuden, innovatiivisuuden ja kustannustehokkuuden suhteen. Tutkimustulosten perusteella saatiin empiiristä evidenssiä sen suhteen, että innovatiivisuus ja dynaamisuus pienten ja keskisuurten leipomoalan yritysten strategiavalintana tuo yritykselle lisää valmiuksia yrityksen toiminnan kehittämiseen, mikäli yrityksen toimintaympäristö, erityisesti kilpailuympäristö muuttuu. Liikkeenjohdon, erityisesti laskentatoimen, käytännöt ja menetelmät todettiin tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella merkityksellisiksi tekijöiksi, joiden kautta strategiset valinnat vaikuttavat yrityksen menestymiseen. Näitä käytäntöjä ja menetelmiä voidaan näin ollen pitää yrityksen tärkeänä voimavarana ja osaamisen ilmentymänä.

Dynamics of Appropriability - Finding a Balance between Efficiency and Strength in the Appropriability Regime

Building and sustaining competitive advantage through the creation of market imperfections is challenging in a constantly changing business environment - particularly since the sources of such advantages are increasingly knowledge-based. Facilitated by improved networks and communication, knowledge spills over to competitors more easily than before,thus creating an appropriability problem: the inability of an innovating firm to utilize its innovations commercially. Consequently, as the importance of intellectual assets increases, their protection also calls for new approaches. Companies have various means of protection at their disposal, and by taking advantage of them they can make intangibles more non-transferable and prevent, or at leastdelay, imitation of their most crucial intellectual assets. However, creating barriers against imitation has another side to it, and the transfer of knowledge in situations requiring knowledge sharing may be unintentionally obstructed. Theaim of this thesis is to increase understanding of how firms can balance knowledge protection and sharing so as to benefit most from their knowledge assets. Thus, knowledge protection is approached through an examination of the appropriability regime of a firm, i.e., the combination of available and effective means ofprotecting innovations, their profitability, and the increased rents due to R&D. A further aim is to provide a broader understanding of the formation and structure of the appropriability regime. The study consists of two parts. The first part introduces the research topic and the overall results of the study, and the second part consists of six complementary research publications covering various appropriability issues. The thesis contributes to the existing literature in several ways. Although there is a wide range of prior research on appropriability issues, a lot of it is restricted either to the study of individual appropriability mechanisms, or to comparing certain features of them. These approaches are combined, and the relevant theoretical concepts are clarified and developed. In addition, the thesis provides empirical evidence of the formation of the appropriability regime, which is consequently presented as an adaptive process. Thus, a framework is provided that better corresponds to the complex reality of the current business environment.

Tendencias de emparejamiento selectivo en inteligencia, dureza de carácter, extraversión e inestabilidad emocional

Las tendencias de emparejamiento selectivo suponen la unión de pares de individuos en algún rasgo humano (físico o psicológico) más semejantes de lo que cabría esperar por azar. La inteligencia y la personalidad constituyen dos de los rasgos más estudiados. Las tendencias de emparejamiento selectivo en una población poseen implicaciones sociológicas y genéticas. En España no existen evidencias empíricas sobre la presencia o ausencia de estas tendencias. En el presente estudio se evalúa la inteligencia, la dureza de carácter, la extraversión y la inestabilidad emocional de 342 parejas adultas de las Comunidades de Cataluña y de Madrid. El rango de edad de los miembros de las parejas oscila entre 34 y 77 años. También está representado un amplio rango de nivel educativo, desde estudios primarios a universitarios. Los resultados indican la presencia de un fuerte emparejamiento selectivo en inteligencia, pero no en los rasgos de personalidad evaluados. La semejanza en inteligencia no está influida por la semejanza en nivel de estudios. Además, los datos revelan una ligera reducción de la tendencia a emparejarse según la variable inteligencia en las parejas más jóvenes. El artículo discute las posibles implicaciones sociológicas y genéticas de esta reducción.

Eficiencia técnica y convergencia en la industria manufacturera de la Unión Europea

El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar la evolución de los niveles de eficiencia técnica de los principales sectores de la industria manufacturera europea durante el periodo 1987-1996. Para ello se ha aplicado un análisis envolvente de datos (DEA) con la información obtenida de la base de datos BACH de 1996. Los resultados muestran que la eficiencia media de la industria disminuye en este período. Además, no encontra-mos una evidencia clara de que haya habido convergencia en la eficiencia entre las empresas europeas. No obstante, nuestro análisis revela una relación estrecha del ciclo económico con los niveles de eficiencia y con su dispersión.

Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.