Understanding information use in multiattribute decision making

An inference task in one in which some known set of information is used to produce an estimate about an unknown quantity. Existing theories of how humans make inferences include specialized heuristics that allow people to make these inferences in familiar environments quickly and without unnecessarily complex computation. Specialized heuristic processing may be unnecessary, however; other research suggests that the same patterns in judgment can be explained by existing patterns in encoding and retrieving memories. This dissertation compares and attempts to reconcile three alternate explanations of human inference. After justifying three hierarchical Bayesian version of existing inference models, the three models are com- pared on simulated, observed, and experimental data. The results suggest that the three models capture different patterns in human behavior but, based on posterior prediction using laboratory data, potentially ignore important determinants of the decision process.

Neural representations of social and non-social uncertainty in human decision making

The social landscape is filled with an intricate web of species-specific desired objects and course of actions. Humans are highly social animals and, as they navigate this landscape, they need to produce adapted decision-making behaviour. Traditionally social and non-social neural mechanisms affecting choice have been investigated using different approaches. Recently, in an effort to unite these findings, two main theories have been proposed to explain how the brain might encode social and non-social motivational decision-making: the extended common currency and the social valuation specific schema (Ruff & Fehr 2014). One way to test these theories is to directly compare neural activity related to social and non-social decision outcomes within the same experimental setting. Here we address this issue by focusing on the neural substrates of social and non-social forms of uncertainty. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) we directly compared the neural representations of reward and risk prediction and errors (RePE and RiPE) in social and non- social situations using gambling games. We used a trust betting game to vary uncertainty along a social dimension (trustworthiness), and a card game (Preuschoff et al. 2006) to vary uncertainty along a non-social dimension (pure risk). The trust game was designed to maintain the same structure of the card game. In a first study, we exposed a divide between subcortical and cortical regions when comparing the way these regions process social and non-social forms of uncertainty during outcome anticipation. Activity in subcortical regions reflected social and non-social RePE, while activity in cortical regions correlated with social RePE and non-social RiPE. The second study focused on outcome delivery and integrated the concept of RiPE in non-social settings with that of fairness and monetary utility maximisation in social settings. In particular these results corroborate recent models of anterior insula function (Singer et al. 2009; Seth 2013), and expose a possible neural mechanism that weights fairness and uncertainty but not monetary utility. The third study focused on functionally defined regions of the early visual cortex (V1) showing how activity in these areas, traditionally considered only visual, might reflect motivational prediction errors in addition to known perceptual prediction mechanisms (den Ouden et al 2012). On the whole, while our results do not support unilaterally one or the other theory modeling the underlying neural dynamics of social and non-social forms of decision making, they provide a working framework where both general mechanisms might coexist.

Increase in Hippocampal Theta Oscillations during Spatial Decision Making

The processing of spatial and mnemonic information is believed to depend on hippocampal theta oscillations (5–12 Hz). However, in rats both the power and the frequency of the theta rhythm are modulated by locomotor activity, which is a major confounding factor when estimating its cognitive correlates. Previous studies have suggested that hippocampal theta oscillations support decision-making processes. In this study, we investigated to what extent spatial decision making modulates hippocampal theta oscillations when controlling for variations in locomotion speed. We recorded local field potentials from the CA1 region of rats while animals had to choose one arm to enter for reward (goal) in a four-arm radial maze. We observed prominent theta oscillations during the decision-making period of the task, which occurred in the center of the maze before animals deliberately ran through an arm toward goal location. In speed-controlled analyses, theta power and frequency were higher during the decision period when compared to either an intertrial delay period (also at the maze center), or to the period of running toward goal location. In addition, theta activity was higher during decision periods preceding correct choices than during decision periods preceding incorrect choices. Altogether, our data support a cognitive function for the hippocampal theta rhythm in spatial decision making

Combined Machine Learning Techniques for Decision Making Support in Medicine

Computational intelligent support for decision making is becoming increasingly popular and essential among medical professionals. Also, with the modern medical devices being capable to communicate with ICT, created models can easily find practical translation into software. Machine learning solutions for medicine range from the robust but opaque paradigms of support vector machines and neural networks to the also performant, yet more comprehensible, decision trees and rule-based models. So how can such different techniques be combined such that the professional obtains the whole spectrum of their particular advantages? The presented approaches have been conceived for various medical problems, while permanently bearing in mind the balance between good accuracy and understandable interpretation of the decision in order to truly establish a trustworthy ‘artificial’ second opinion for the medical expert.

Using an end-of-life care pathway in acute stroke: a mixed methods study of decision-making and care experiences

Background: The evidence base on end-of-life care in acute stroke is limited, particularly with regard to recognising dying and related decision-making. There is also limited evidence to support the use of end-of-life care pathways (standardised care plans) for patients who are dying after stroke. Aim: This study aimed to explore the clinical decision-making involved in placing patients on an end-of-life care pathway, evaluate predictors of care pathway use, and investigate the role of families in decision-making. The study also aimed to examine experiences of end-of-life care pathway use for stroke patients, their relatives and the multi-disciplinary health care team. Methods: A mixed methods design was adopted. Data were collected in four Scottish acute stroke units. Case-notes were identified prospectively from 100 consecutive stroke deaths and reviewed. Multivariate analysis was performed on case-note data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 relatives of stroke decedents and 23 healthcare professionals, using a modified grounded theory approach to collect and analyse data. The VOICES survey tool was also administered to the bereaved relatives and data were analysed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis of free-text responses. Results: Relatives often played an important role in influencing aspects of end-of-life care, including decisions to use an end-of-life care pathway. Some relatives experienced enduring distress with their perceived responsibility for care decisions. Relatives felt unprepared for and were distressed by prolonged dying processes, which were often associated with severe dysphagia. Pro-active information-giving by staff was reported as supportive by relatives. Healthcare professionals generally avoided discussing place of care with families. Decisions to use an end-of-life care pathway were not predicted by patients’ demographic characteristics; decisions were generally made in consultation with families and the extended health care team, and were made within regular working hours. Conclusion: Distressing stroke-related issues were more prominent in participants’ accounts than concerns with the end-of-life care pathway used. Relatives sometimes perceived themselves as responsible for important clinical decisions. Witnessing prolonged dying processes was difficult for healthcare professionals and families, particularly in relation to the management of persistent major swallowing difficulties.

Administrative justice and the control of bureaucratic decision-making: A study investigating how decision-makers in local authority education departments respond to the work of redress mechanisms

This socio-legal thesis has explored the factors responsible for explaining whether and how redress mechanisms control bureaucratic decision-making. The research considered the three principal institutions of administrative justice: courts, tribunals, and ombudsman schemes. The field setting was the local authority education area and the thesis examined bureaucratic decision-making about admissions to school, home-to-school transport, and Special Educational Needs (SEN). The thesis adopted a qualitative approach, using interviews and documentary research, within a multiple embedded case study design. The intellectual foundations of the research were inter-disciplinary, cutting across law, socio-legal studies, public administration, organization studies, and social policy. The thesis drew on these scholarly fields to explore the nature of bureaucratic decision-making, the extent to which it can be controlled and the way that learning occurs in bureaucracies and, finally, the extent to which redress mechanisms might exercise control. The concept of control was studied across all its dimensions – in relation both to ex post control in specific cases and the more challenging notion of ex ante or structuring control. The aim of the thesis was not to measure the prevalence of bureaucratic control by redress mechanisms, but to understand the factors that might explain its presence or absence in a particular area. The findings of the research have allowed for a number of analytical refinements and extensions to be made to existing theoretical and empirical understandings. 14 factors, along with 87 supporting propositions, have been set out with the aim of making empirically derived suggestions which can be followed up in future research. In terms of the thesis’ contribution to existing knowledge, its comparative focus and its emphasis on the broad notion of control offered the potential for new insights to be developed. Overall, the thesis claims to have made three contributions to the conceptual framework for understanding the exercise of control by redress mechanisms: it emphasizes the importance of ‘feedback’ in relation to the nature of the cases referred to redress mechanisms; it calls attention to the structure of bureaucratic decision-making as well as its normative character; and it discusses how the operational modes of redress mechanisms relate to their control functions.

Designing Efficient Subsidy Policies in a Regional Economy: A Multicriteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach

Since policy-makers usually pursue several conflicting objectives, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decision problem. Following the methodological proposal by André and Cardenete (2005) André, F. J. and Cardenete, M. A. 2005. Multicriteria Policy Making. Defining Efficient Policies in a General Equilibrium Model, Seville: Centro de Estudios Andaluces. Working Paper No. E2005/04, multi-objective programming is used in connection with a computable general equilibrium model to represent optimal policy-making and to obtain so-called efficient policies in an application to a regional economy (Andalusia, Spain). This approach is applied to the design of subsidy policies under two different scenarios. In the first scenario, it is assumed that the government is concerned just about two objectives: ensuring the profitability of a key strategic sector and increasing overall output. Finally, the scope of the exercise is enlarged by solving a problem with seven policy objectives, including both general and sectorial objectives. It is concluded that the observed policy could have been Pareto-improved in several directions.

Identifying and enhancing risk thresholds in the detection of elder financial abuse: A signal detection analysis of professionals' decision making

Background: Financial abuse of elders is an under acknowledged problem and professionals' judgements contribute to both the prevalence of abuse and the ability to prevent and intervene. In the absence of a definitive "gold standard" for the judgement, it is desirable to try and bring novice professionals' judgemental risk thresholds to the level of competent professionals as quickly and effectively as possible. This study aimed to test if a training intervention was able to bring novices' risk thresholds for financial abuse in line with expert opinion. Methods: A signal detection analysis, within a randomised controlled trial of an educational intervention, was undertaken to examine the effect on the ability of novices to efficiently detect financial abuse. Novices (n = 154) and experts (n = 33) judged "certainty of risk" across 43 scenarios; whether a scenario constituted a case of financial abuse or not was a function of expert opinion. Novices (n = 154) were randomised to receive either an on-line educational intervention to improve financial abuse detection (n = 78) or a control group (no on-line educational intervention, n = 76). Both groups examined 28 scenarios of abuse (11 "signal" scenarios of risk and 17 "noise" scenarios of no risk). After the intervention group had received the on-line training, both groups then examined 15 further scenarios (5 "signal" and 10 "noise" scenarios). Results: Experts were more certain than the novices, pre (Mean 70.61 vs. 58.04) and post intervention (Mean 70.84 vs. 63.04); and more consistent. The intervention group (mean 64.64) were more certain of abuse post-intervention than the control group (mean 61.41, p = 0.02). Signal detection analysis of sensitivity (Á) and bias (C) revealed that this was due to the intervention shifting the novices' tendency towards saying "at risk" (C post intervention -.34) and away from their pre intervention levels of bias (C-.12). Receiver operating curves revealed more efficient judgments in the intervention group. Conclusion: An educational intervention can improve judgements of financial abuse amongst novice professionals.

Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

Doutoramento em Gestão

Transdiscipline and research in health: Science, society and decision making

Significant advances in science should be given to addressing the needs of society and the historical context of the territories. Although technological developments that began with modernity and the industrial revolution allowed human beings to control the resources of nature to put to your service without limits, it is clear that the crisis of the prevailing development models manifest themselves in many ways but with three common denominators: environmental degradation, social injustice and extreme poverty. Consequently, today should not be possible to think a breakthrough in the development of science without addressing global environmental problems and the deep social injustices that increase at all scales under the gaze, impassively in many occasions, of formal science.

Assessing Decision Making Skill in Complex and Dynamic Environments Using Representative and Simulated Tasks

Traditional decision making research has often focused on one's ability to choose from a set of prefixed options, ignoring the process by which decision makers generate courses of action (i.e., options) in-situ (Klein, 1993). In complex and dynamic domains, this option generation process is particularly critical to understanding how successful decisions are made (Zsambok & Klein, 1997). When generating response options for oneself to pursue (i.e., during the intervention-phase of decision making) previous research has supported quick and intuitive heuristics, such as the Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003). When generating predictive options for others in the environment (i.e., during the assessment-phase of decision making), previous research has supported the situational-model-building process described by Long Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; see Ward, Ericsson, & Williams, 2013). In the first three experiments, the claims of TTF and LTWM are tested during assessment- and intervention-phase tasks in soccer. To test what other environmental constraints may dictate the use of these cognitive mechanisms, the claims of these models are also tested in the presence and absence of time pressure. In addition to understanding the option generation process, it is important that researchers in complex and dynamic domains also develop tools that can be used by `real-world' professionals. For this reason, three more experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a new online assessment of perceptual-cognitive skill in soccer. This test differentiated between skill groups and predicted performance on a previously established test and predicted option generation behavior. The test also outperformed domain-general cognitive tests, but not a domain-specific knowledge test when predicting skill group membership. Implications for theory and training, and future directions for the development of applied tools are discussed.

The environmental DNA in the risk assessment and decision making processes for the invasive species management in agri-food sector, hydraulic security and biodiversity conservation

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis as a monitoring tool is becoming more and more widespread. The eDNA metabarcoding methods allow rapid community assessments of different target taxa. This work is focused on the validation of the environmental DNA metabarcoding protocol for biodiversity assessment of freshwater habitats. Scolo Dosolo was chosen as study area and three sampling points were defined for traditional and eDNA analyses. The gutter is a 205 m long anthropic canal located in Sala Bolognese (Bologna, Italy). Fish community and freshwater invertebrate metazoans were the target groups for the analysis. After a preliminary study in summer 2019, 2020 was devoted to the sampling campaign with winter (January), spring (May), summer (July) and autumn (October) surveys. Alongside with the water samplings for the eDNA study, also traditional fish surveys using the electrofishing technique were performed to assess fish community composition; census on invertebrates was performed using an entomological net and a surber sampler. After in silico analysis, the MiFish primer set amplifying a fragment of the 12s rRNA gene was selected for bony fishes. For invertebrates the FWHF2 + FWHR2N primer combination, that amplifies a region of the mitochondrial coi gene, was chosen. Raw reads were analyzed through a bioinformatic pipeline based on OBITools metabarcoding programs package and QIIME2. The OBITools pipeline retrieved seven fish taxa and 54 invertebrate taxa belonging to six different phyla, while QIIME2 recovered eight fish taxa and 45 invertebrate taxa belonging to the same six phyla as the OBITools pipeline. The metabarcoding results were then compared with the traditional surveys data and bibliographic records. Overall, the validated protocol provides a reliable picture of the biodiversity of the study area and an efficient support to the traditional methods.

New perspectives on A.I. in sentencing. Human decision-making between risk assessment tools and protection of humans rights.

The aim of this thesis is to investigate a field that until a few years ago was foreign to and distant from the penal system. The purpose of this undertaking is to account for the role that technology could plays in the Italian Criminal Law system. More specifically, this thesis attempts to scrutinize a very intricate phase of adjudication. After deciding on the type of an individual's liability, a judge must decide on the severity of the penalty. This type of decision implies a prognostic assessment that looks to the future. It is precisely in this field and in prognostic assessments that, as has already been anticipated in the United, instruments and processes are inserted in the pre-trial but also in the decision-making phase. In this contribution, we attempt to describe the current state of this field, trying, as a matter of method, to select the most relevant or most used tools. Using comparative and qualitative methods, the uses of some of these instruments in the supranational legal system are analyzed. Focusing attention on the Italian system, an attempt was made to investigate the nature of the element of an individual's ‘social dangerousness’ (pericolosità sociale) and capacity to commit offences, types of assessments that are fundamental in our system because they are part of various types of decisions, including the choice of the best sanctioning treatment. It was decided to turn our attention to this latter field because it is believed that the judge does not always have the time, the means and the ability to assess all the elements of a subject and identify the best 'individualizing' treatment in order to fully realize the function of Article 27, paragraph 3 of the Constitution.

Circumplex Model to analyze the impact of emotions on decision-making processes in innovation management

Group work allows participants to pool their thoughts and examine difficulties from several angles. In these settings, it is possible to attempt things that an individual could not achieve, combining a variety of abilities and knowledge to tackle more complicated and large-scale challenges. That’s why nowadays collaborative work is becoming more and more widespread to solve complex innovation dilemmas. Since innovation isn’t a tangible thing, most innovation teams used to take decisions based on performance KPIs such as forecasted engagement, projected profitability, investments required, cultural impacts etc. Have you ever wondered the reason why sometimes innovation group processes come out with decisions which are not the optimal meeting point of all the KPIs? Has this decision been influenced by other factors? Some researchers account part of this phenomenon to the emotions in group-based interaction between participants. I will develop a literature review that is split into three parts: first, I will consider some emotions theories from an individual perspective; secondly, a wider view of collective interactions theories will be provided; lastly, I will supply some recent collective interaction empirical studies. After the theoretical and empirical gaps have been tackled, the study will additionally move forward with a methodological point of view, about the Circumplex Model, which is the model I used to evaluate emotions in my research. This model has been applied to SUGAR project, which is the biggest design thinking academy worldwide.