The implicit theory of historical change in the work of Alan S. Milward

Alan S. Milward was an economic historian who developed an implicit theory ofhistorical change. His interpretation which was neither liberal nor Marxist positedthat social, political, and economic change, for it to be sustainable, had to be agradual process rather than one resulting from a sudden, cataclysmicrevolutionary event occurring in one sector of the economy or society. Benignchange depended much less on natural resource endowment or technologicaldevelopments than on the ability of state institutions to respond to changingpolitical demands from within each society. State bureaucracies were fundamentalto formulating those political demands and advising politicians of ways to meetthem. Since each society was different there was no single model of developmentto be adopted or which could be imposed successfully by one nation-state onothers, either through force or through foreign aid programs. Nor coulddevelopment be promoted simply by copying the model of a more successfuleconomy. Each nation-state had to find its own response to the political demandsarising from within its society. Integration occurred when a number of nation states shared similar political objectives which they could not meet individuallybut could meet collectively. It was not simply the result of their increasinginterdependence. It was how and whether nation-states responded to thesedomestic demands which determined the nature of historical change.

Human Resource Information System; individual Users with Work Reporting Guide, April 2003

Guide manual for using the Human Resource Information System for the state of Iowa.

Improving Transition Outcomes: Prototype Work Plan Template

Work Plan template developed for the Improving Transition Outcomes community demonstration prototypes.

Teaching cardiac auscultation to trainees in internal medicine and family practice: does it work?

BACKGROUND: The general proficiency in physical diagnostic skills seems to be declining in relation to the development of new technologies. The few studies that have examined this question have invariably used recordings of cardiac events obtained from patients. However, this type of evaluation may not correlate particularly well with bedside skills. Our objectives were 1) To compare the cardiac auscultatory skills of physicians in training with those of experienced cardiologists by using real patients to test bedside diagnostic skills. 2) To evaluate the impact of a five-month bedside cardiac auscultation training program. METHODS: 1) In an academic primary care center, 20 physicians (trainees in internal medicine and family practice) and two skilled academic cardiologists listened to 33 cardiac events in 13 patients directly at bedside and identified the cardiac events by completing an open questionnaire. Heart sounds, murmurs and diagnosis were determined beforehand by an independent skilled cardiologist and were validated by echocardiography. Thirteen primary cardiologic diagnoses were possible.2) Ten of the physicians agreed to participate in a course of 45-minute sessions once a week for 5 months. After the course they listened again to the same patients (pre/post-interventional study). RESULTS: 1) The experts were the most skillful, achieving 69% recognition of heart sounds and murmurs and correct diagnoses in 62% of cases. They also heard all of the diastolic murmurs. The residents heard only 40% of the extra heart sounds and made a correct diagnosis in 24% of cases. 2) After the weekly training sessions, their mean percentage for correct diagnosis was 35% [an increase of 66% (p < 0.05)]. CONCLUSIONS: The level of bedside diagnostic skills in this relatively small group of physicians in training is indeed low, but can be improved by a course focusing on realistic bedside teaching.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Warning: "Work-at-Home" Schemes, October 2004

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Warning: "Work-at-Home" Schemes

Successful Interviewing Guide, September 2007

Most employers want to treat job applicants fairly and without prejudice. All employers want to hire the most qualified person for the job. Both goals can be met when the employer is versed in effective techniques for interviewing job applicants. In regard to fairness, it’s easy to recite the reasons why fair and effective interviewing can ometimes seem elusive. Laws and regulations, and their interpretation by courts and egulators, are constantly changing. A quick review of the “Do's and Don’ts” of equal employment opportunity interviewing appears at the end of this booklet, and is titled, “Summary Guide to Pre-Employment Inquiries.” Consistent with the guide’s placement at the close of this booklet, it is most effectively used after reading the more detailed material preceding it. The thought provoking questions on pages 4 and 5 examine the applicant’s qualifications, work attitudes, and career plans. They will help the interviewer discover the most qualified person for the job. The “Successful Interviewing Guide” was developed by Iowa Workforce Development based on information provided by the Iowa Civil Rights Commission and the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the agencies charged with enforcing discrimination laws.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Take-the-best and other simple strategies: Why and when they work 'well' in binary choice

The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of bothrules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifiesthe relative predictive accuracies of the lexicographic rule 'take-the-best'(TTB) and other simple strategies for binary choice. We identify threefactors: how the environment weights variables; characteristics of choicesets; and error. For cases involving from three to five binary cues, TTBis effective across many environments. However, hybrids of equal weights(EW) and TTB models are more effective as environments become morecompensatory. In the presence of error, TTB and similar models do not predictmuch better than a naïve model that exploits dominance. We emphasizepsychological implications and the need for more complete theories of theenvironment that include the role of error.

Protestants and Catholics: Similar work ethic, different social ethic

This article develops two hypotheses about economically-relevant values of Christianbelievers, according to which Protestants should work more and more effectively, as in the work ethic argument of Max Weber, or display a stronger social ethic that would lead themto monitor each other s conduct, support political and legal institutions and hold morehomogeneous values. Tests using current survey data confirm substantial partial correlations andpossible different effects in mutual social control, institutional performance and homogeneityof values but no difference in work ethics. Protestantism therefore seems conducive to capitalisteconomic development, not by the direct psychological route of the Weberian work ethic butrather by promoting an alternative social ethic that facilitates impersonal trade.

How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain

This paper studies the duration pattern of xed-term contracts and the determinantsof their conversion into permanent ones in Spain, where the share of xed-termemployment is the highest in Europe. We estimate a duration model for temporaryemployment, with competing risks of terminating into permanent employment versusalternative states, and exible duration dependence. We nd that conversion rates aregenerally below 10%. Our estimated conversion rates roughly increase with tenure,with a pronounced spike at the legal limit, when there is no legal way to retain theworker on a temporary contract. We argue that estimated di¤erences in conversionrates across categories of workers can stem from di¤erences in worker outside optionsand thus the power to credibly threat to quit temporary jobs.

Long-run selection and the work ethic

That individuals contribute in social dilemma interactions even when contributing is costly is a well-established observation in the experimental literature. Since a contributor is always strictly worse off than a non-contributor the question is raised if an intrinsic motivation to contribute can survive in an evolutionary setting. Using recent results on deterministic approximation of stochastic evolutionary dynamics we give conditions for equilibria with a positive number of contributors to be selected in the long run.

Children's work in Spanish textiles during the 19th and 20th Centuries

This essay deals with the reasons explaining children s work in 19th century textile factories and their removal during the first part of the 20th century. The inadequacy of the structure of incomes and expenditures of the household and the very low economic incentives to educate children can explain why children were in the factories and not in the school. Moreover, the marginal economic contribution to the economy of the household of a child was the same as that of his mother. This normally implied that women and children were perfect substitutes. When the family had a child at working age this allowed to replace the paid work input of the mother. With the beginnings of the 20th century a set of changes leading to the increase of women s productivity and hourly real wages, switched the situation and involved the new incorporation of women into paid work and the investment in children s human capital.