Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Trial-of-antibiotic algorithm for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in a district hospital in a developing country with high HIV prevalence

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a diagnostic algorithm for pulmonary tuberculosis based on smear microscopy and objective response to trial of antibiotics. SETTING: Adult medical wards, Hlabisa Hospital, South Africa, 1996-1997. METHODS: Adults with chronic chest symptoms and abnormal chest X-ray had sputum examined for Ziehl-Neelsen stained acid-fast bacilli by light microscopy. Those with negative smears were treated with amoxycillin for 5 days and assessed. Those who had not improved were treated with erythromycin for 5 days and reassessed. Response was compared with mycobacterial culture. RESULTS: Of 280 suspects who completed the diagnostic pathway, 160 (57%) had a positive smear, 46 (17%) responded to amoxycillin, 34 (12%) responded to erythromycin and 40 (14%) were treated as smear-negative tuberculosis. The sensitivity (89%) and specificity (84%) of the full algorithm for culture-positive tuberculosis were high. However, 11 patients (positive predictive value [PPV] 95%) were incorrectly diagnosed with tuberculosis, and 24 cases of tuberculosis (negative predictive value [NPV] 70%) were not identified. NPV improved to 75% when anaemia was included as a predictor. Algorithm performance was independent of human immunodeficiency virus status. CONCLUSION: Sputum smear microscopy plus trial of antibiotic algorithm among a selected group of tuberculosis suspects may increase diagnostic accuracy in district hospitals in developing countries.

An Activated O N Acyl Transfer Auxiliary: Efficient Amide-Backbone Substitution of Hindered "Difficult" Peptides

Overcoming the phenomenon known as difficult synthetic sequences has been a major goal in solid-phase peptide synthesis for over 30 years. In this work the advantages of amide backbone-substitution in the solid-phase synthesis of difficult peptides are augmented by developing an activated N-alpha-acyl transfer auxiliary. Apart from disrupting troublesome intermolecular hydrogen-bonding networks, the primary function of the activated N-alpha-auxiliary was to facilitate clean and efficient acyl capture of large or beta-branched amino acids and improve acyl transfer yields to the secondary N-alpha-amine. We found o-hydroxyl-substituted nitrobenzyl (Hnb) groups were suitable N-alpha-auxiliaries for this purpose. The relative acyl transfer efficiency of the Hnb auxiliary was superior to the 2-hydroxy-4-methoxybenzyl (Hmb) auxiliary with protected amino acids of varying size. Significantly, this difference in efficiency was more pronounced between more sterically demanding amino acids. The Hnb auxiliary is readily incorporated at the N-alpha-amine during SPPS by reductive alkylation of its corresponding benzaldehyde derivative and conveniently removed by mild photolysis at 366 nm. The usefulness of the Hnb auxiliary for the improvement of coupling efficiencies in the chain-assembly of difficult peptides was demonstrated by the efficient Hnb-assisted Fmoc solid-phase synthesis of a known hindered difficult peptide sequence, STAT-91. This work suggests the Hnb auxiliary will significantly enhance our ability to synthesize difficult polypeptides and increases the applicability of amide-backbone substitution.

Minimum-order stable recursive filter design via the genetic algorithm approach

In this paper, the minimum-order stable recursive filter design problem is proposed and investigated. This problem is playing an important role in pipeline implementation sin signal processing. Here, the existence of a high-order stable recursive filter is proved theoretically, in which the upper bound for the highest order of stable filters is given. Then the minimum-order stable linear predictor is obtained via solving an optimization problem. In this paper, the popular genetic algorithm approach is adopted since it is a heuristic probabilistic optimization technique and has been widely used in engineering designs. Finally, an illustrative example is sued to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Identifying rate-limiting nodes in large-scale cortical networks for visuospatial processing: an illustration using fMRI

With the advent of functional neuroimaging techniques, in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we have gained greater insight into the neural correlates of visuospatial function. However, it may not always be easy to identify the cerebral regions most specifically associated with performance on a given task. One approach is to examine the quantitative relationships between regional activation and behavioral performance measures. In the present study, we investigated the functional neuroanatomy of two different visuospatial processing tasks, judgement of line orientation and mental rotation. Twenty-four normal participants were scanned with fMRI using blocked periodic designs for experimental task presentation. Accuracy and reaction time (RT) to each trial of both activation and baseline conditions in each experiment was recorded. Both experiments activated dorsal and ventral visual cortical areas as well as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. More regionally specific associations with task performance were identified by estimating the association between (sinusoidal) power of functional response and mean RT to the activation condition; a permutation test based on spatial statistics was used for inference. There was significant behavioral-physiological association in right ventral extrastriate cortex for the line orientation task and in bilateral (predominantly right) superior parietal lobule for the mental rotation task. Comparable associations were not found between power of response and RT to the baseline conditions of the tasks. These data suggest that one region in a neurocognitive network may be most strongly associated with behavioral performance and this may be regarded as the computationally least efficient or rate-limiting node of the network.

Efficient discovery of immune response targets by cyclical refinement of QSAR models of peptide binding

Peptides that induce and recall T-cell responses are called T-cell epitopes. T-cell epitopes may be useful in a subunit vaccine against malaria. Computer models that simulate peptide binding to MHC are useful for selecting candidate T-cell epitopes since they minimize the number of experiments required for their identification. We applied a combination of computational and immunological strategies to select candidate T-cell epitopes. A total of 86 experimental binding assays were performed in three rounds of identification of HLA-All binding peptides from the six preerythrocytic malaria antigens. Thirty-six peptides were experimentally confirmed as binders. We show that the cyclical refinement of the ANN models results in a significant improvement of the efficiency of identifying potential T-cell epitopes. (C) 2001 by Elsevier Science Inc.

An equivalent algorithm for simulating thermal effects of magma intrusion problems in porous rocks

An equivalent algorithm is proposed to simulate thermal effects of the magma intrusion in geological systems, which are composed of porous rocks. Based on the physical and mathematical equivalence, the original magma solidification problem with a moving boundary between the rock and intruded magma is transformed into a new problem without the moving boundary but with a physically equivalent heat source. From the analysis of an ideal solidification model, the physically equivalent heat source has been determined in this paper. The major advantage in using the proposed equivalent algorithm is that the fixed finite element mesh with a variable integration time step can be employed to simulate the thermal effect of the intruded magma solidification using the conventional finite element method. The related numerical results have demonstrated the correctness and usefulness of the proposed equivalent algorithm for simulating the thermal effect of the intruded magma solidification in geological systems. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

A spectral clustering algorithm for manufacturing cell formation

A graph clustering algorithm constructs groups of closely related parts and machines separately. After they are matched for the least intercell moves, a refining process runs on the initial cell formation to decrease the number of intercell moves. A simple modification of this main approach can deal with some practical constraints, such as the popular constraint of bounding the maximum number of machines in a cell. Our approach makes a big improvement in the computational time. More importantly, improvement is seen in the number of intercell moves when the computational results were compared with best known solutions from the literature. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bioprocess-centered molecular design (BMD) for the efficient production of an interfacially active peptide

The efficient expression and purification of an interfacially active peptide (mLac21) was achieved by using bioprocess-centered molecular design (BMD), wherein key bioprocess considerations are addressed during the initial molecular biology work. The 21 amino acid mLac21 peptide sequence is derived from the lac repressor protein and is shown to have high affinity for the oil-water interface, causing a substantial reduction in interfacial tension following adsorption. The DNA coding for the peptide sequence was cloned into a modified pET-31(b) vector to permit the expression of mLac21 as a fusion to ketosteroid isomerase (KSI). Rational iterative molecular design, taking into account the need for a scaleable bioprocess flowsheet, led to a simple and efficient bioprocess yielding mLac21 at 86% purity following ion exchange chromatography (and >98% following chromatographic polishing). This case study demonstrates that it is possible to produce acceptably pure peptide for potential commodity applications using common scaleable bioprocess unit operations. Moreover, it is shown that BMD is a powerful strategy that can be deployed to reduce bioseparation complexity. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fast and efficient synthesis of pyrano[3,2-c]quinolines catalyzed by niobium(V) chloride

A highly efficient two-step method for the synthesis of pyranoquinoline derivatives from imino-Diels-Alder reactions between aldimines and 3,4-dihydro-2H-pyran using niobium(V) chloride as catalyst under mild conditions is described.

Efficient Phosphodiester Hydrolysis by Luminescent Terbium(III) and Europium(III) Complexes

The synthesis and structures of two new isostructural mononuclear [Ln(L)(NO(3))(H(2)O)(3)](NO(3))(2) complexes, with Ln = Tb (complex 1) and Eu (complex 2), which display high activity in the hydrolysis of the substrate 2,4-bis(dinitrophenyl)phosphate, are reported. These complexes displayed catalytic behavior similar to the mononuclear gadolinium complex [Gd(L)(NO(3))(H(2)O)(3)](NO(3))(2) previously reported by us (lnorg. Chem. 2008, 47, 2919-2921); one hydrolysis reaction in two stages where the diesterase and monoesterase activities could be monitored separately, with the first stage dependent on and the second independent of the complex concentration. Through potentiometric studies, electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) analysis, and determination of the kinetic behaviors of 1 and 2 in acetonitrile/water solution, the species present in solution could be identified and suggested a dinuclear species, with one hydroxo group, as the most prominent catalyst under mild conditions. The complexes show high activity (k(1)= 7 and 18 s(-1) for 1 and 2, respectively) and catalytic efficiency. Complexes 1 and 2 were found to be active toward the cleavage of plasmid DNA, and complete kinetic studies were carried out. Studies with a radical scavenger (dimethylsulfoxide) confirmed the hydrolytic action of 1 and 2 in the cleavage of DNA. Studies on the incubation of distamycin with plasmid DNA suggested that 1 and 2 are regio-specific, interacting with the minor groove of DNA. These complexes displayed luminescent properties. Complex 1 showed higher emission intensity than 2 due to a more efficient energy transfer between triplet and emission levels of terbium (T -> (5)D(4)), along with nonradiative deactivation mechanisms of the excited states of europium via multiphonon decays and the ligand-to-metal charge transfer state. Lifetime measurements of the (5)D(4) and (5)D(0) excited levels for 1 and 2, respectively, indicated the numbers of coordinated water molecules for the complexes.

A new algorithm and refined bounds for extended gcd computation

Extended gcd computation is interesting itself. It also plays a fundamental role in other calculations. We present a new algorithm for solving the extended gcd problem. This algorithm has a particularly simple description and is practical. It also provides refined bounds on the size of the multipliers obtained.

The Qu-Prolog unification algorithm: Formalisation and correctness

Qu-Prolog is an extension of Prolog which performs meta-level computations over object languages, such as predicate calculi and lambda-calculi, which have object-level variables, and quantifier or binding symbols creating local scopes for those variables. As in Prolog, the instantiable (meta-level) variables of Qu-Prolog range over object-level terms, and in addition other Qu-Prolog syntax denotes the various components of the object-level syntax, including object-level variables. Further, the meta-level operation of substitution into object-level terms is directly represented by appropriate Qu-Prolog syntax. Again as in Prolog, the driving mechanism in Qu-Prolog computation is a form of unification, but this is substantially more complex than for Prolog because of Qu-Prolog's greater generality, and especially because substitution operations are evaluated during unification. In this paper, the Qu-Prolog unification algorithm is specified, formalised and proved correct. Further, the analysis of the algorithm is carried out in a frame-work which straightforwardly allows the 'completeness' of the algorithm to be proved: though fully explicit answers to unification problems are not always provided, no information is lost in the unification process.

Standard errors of fitted component means of normal mixtures

In this paper use consider the problem of providing standard errors of the component means in normal mixture models fitted to univariate or multivariate data by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm. Two methods of estimation of the standard errors are considered: the standard information-based method and the computationally-intensive bootstrap method. They are compared empirically by their application to three real data sets and by a small-scale Monte Carlo experiment.