Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

THE HEALTH OF YOUNG ADULTS WITH DISABILITIES IN THE UNITED STATES: THE COLLECTIVE ROLES OF RISK FACTORS IN SOCIAL ECOLOGIC FRAMEWORK

Background: Over the last few decades, the prevalence of young adults with disabilities (YAD) has steadily risen as a result of advances in medicine, clinical treatment, and biomedical technologythat enhanced their survival into adulthood. Despite investments in services, family supports, and insurance, they experience poor health status and barriers to successful transition into adulthood. Objectives: We investigated the collective roles of multi-faceted factors at intrapersonal, interpersonal and community levels within the social ecological framework on health related outcome including self-rated health (SRH) of YAD. The three specific aims are: 1) to examine sociodemographic differences and health insurance coverage in adolescence; 2) to investigate the role of social skills in relationships with family and peers developed in adolescence; and 3) to collectively explore the association of sociodemographic characteristics, social skills, and community participation in adolescence on SRH. Methods: Using longitudinal data (N=5,020) from the National Longitudinal Transition Study (NLTS2), we conducted multivariate logistic regression analyses to understand the association between insurance status as well as social skills in adolescence and YAD’s health related outcomes. Structural equation modeling (SEM) assessed the confluence of multi-faceted factors from the social ecological model that link to health in early adulthood. Results: Compared with YAD who had private insurance, YAD who had public health insurance in adolescence are at higher odds of experiencing poorer health related outcomes in self-rated health [adjusted odds ratio (aOR=2.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 7.23), problems with health (aOR=2.60, 95%CI: 1.26, 5.35), and missing social activities due to health problems (aOR=2.86, 95%CI: 1.39, 5.85). At the interpersonal level, overall social skills developed through relationship with family and peers in adolescence do not appear to have association with health related outcomes in early adulthood. Finally, at the community level, community participation in adolescence does not have an association with SRH in early adulthood. Conclusions: Having public health insurance coverage does not equate to good health. YAD need additional supports to achieve positive health outcomes. The findings in social skills and community participation suggest other potential factors may be at play for health related outcomes for YAD and the need for further investigation.

Relating bisimulations with attractors in boolean network models

When studying a biological regulatory network, it is usual to use boolean network models. In these models, boolean variables represent the behavior of each component of the biological system. Taking in account that the size of these state transition models grows exponentially along with the number of components considered, it becomes important to have tools to minimize such models. In this paper, we relate bisimulations, which are relations used in the study of automata (general state transition models) with attractors, which are an important feature of biological boolean models. Hence, we support the idea that bisimulations can be important tools in the study some main features of boolean network models.We also discuss the differences between using this approach and other well-known methodologies to study this kind of systems and we illustrate it with some examples.

Pinning Down Identity in Social Media: Food Cultural Transfer on Pinterest

This research has been conducted within the realm of where today’s digital media society and the timeless concept of cultural identity overlap. The aim of this thesis is to explore the nature of online cultural identity management. By focusing on the social media platform, Pinterest, this study considers the food-pinning behavior of a group of Americans living in Finland and connects their online actions with their cultural identity. Through an examination of Pinterest as a social space, and even a third place, the relative theoretical literature provides and interesting background for a contemporary discussion on the matter. Literature on food as a cultural marker is also brought into consideration. Using the methods of introspection and an adapted version of virtual ethnography, a study was conducted, and ultimately, the analysis of data obtained from the Pinterest boards of ten individuals shows that the vast majority of food-related information in this setting is US-sourced. A questionnaire provides further insight into the individuals’ Pinterest usage. I argue that pinning is an act of online identity management, whether it is a conscious act or a situational effect, and that using Pinterest maintains and even strengthens these individuals’ cultural identity as Americans. This study adds to current discussions pertaining to transnationalism, globalization, and online cultural identity, as well as opens channels for further research on this dynamic topic, which is needed to understand ourselves as cultural beings in the digital age.

The Relation between Substance Use and Medication Adherence among HIV Positive Substance Users in Residential Treatment

Poor medication adherence is problematic among HIV positive, low-income African-American substance users. Substance use has been shown to be associated with poor medication adherence, though we do not know the mechanism that underlies this relationship. Lack of positive environmental rewards and the propensity to discount delayed rewards may be possible mechanisms to explain this relationship. Using baseline data from a randomized controlled trial, we examined the relationships between substance use and medication adherence, testing both environmental rewards and delay discounting as independent mediators. There was a main effect of substance use on adherence, such that high frequency of substance use predicted poor adherence. There was also a main effect of environmental rewards on adherence, such that a lack of environmental reinforcement predicted poor adherence. This study shed light on the processes that contribute to low adherence, namely substance use and lack of environmental contingencies, and suggests important targets for intervention.

Being more certain about random assignment in social policy evaluations

Social experiments have been widely utilised in evaluations of social programmes in the US to identify ‘what works’, whilst in the UK their use is more controversial. This paper explores the paradigmatic, technical and practical issues evaluators confront in using randomised experiments to evaluate social policies. Possible remedies to some of these problems are outlined. It is argued that although no evaluation methodology is problem-free, policy makers and researchers should be more confident about the merits of using random assignment, provided it is used in conjunction with other methodologies more suited to understanding why and how interventions work.

Living Adolescence in Family" parenting program: adaptation and implementation in social and school contexts

Adolescence is a developmental period that implies a series of rapid changes that might complicate the role of parents. This study evaluates changes in parental monitoring and the strategies to solve family conflicts reported by parents who participated in the "Living Adolescence in Family" program in local social services and school centers. In addition, the study analyses the moderating role of family and facilitator variables that may affect the final results. The participants were 697 parents attending the social services (438 in the intervention group and 259 in the control group) and 1283 parents from school centers (880 in the intervention group and 403 in the control group). The results showed that families from local social services decreased the amount of control and improved monitoring in education and leisure spheres as well as self-disclosure whereas the families coming from school centers improved supervision in leisure and in self-disclosure. In addition, both groups of families improved their strategies for solving family conflicts, increasing the use of integrative strategies and decreasing the use of dominant strategies. There were differences across contexts: the results of the program in the social services context differed according to the participant and professional profiles whereas program results were more homogeneous in the school context. In sum, the program appears to be an efficient work tool, both for the professionals who work with at-risk families with adolescents and for the teachers who make use of the program for families with children at risk of early school dropout.

How does the healthcare industry involve users in medical device development? Pointers for UbiHealth

This paper introduces the Multidisciplinary Assessment of Technology Centre for Healthcare (MATCH) and outlines the problem of integrating a user-centred approach for development of medical devices together with the information and communication technology environments in which they are increasingly required to operate. We highlight some of the regulatory requirements that are relevant to user needs consideration in medical device development. Finally, we reveal a range of limitations in the current practice of the medical device industry in the area of user needs capture, based on responses from interviews with MATCH’s industry partners.

Pinning Down Identity in Social Media: Food Cultural Transfer on Pinterest

This research has been conducted within the realm of where today’s digital media society and the timeless concept of cultural identity overlap. The aim of this thesis is to explore the nature of online cultural identity management. By focusing on the social media platform, Pinterest, this study considers the food-pinning behavior of a group of Americans living in Finland and connects their online actions with their cultural identity. Through an examination of Pinterest as a social space, and even a third place, the relative theoretical literature provides and interesting background for a contemporary discussion on the matter. Literature on food as a cultural marker is also brought into consideration. Using the methods of introspection and an adapted version of virtual ethnography, a study was conducted, and ultimately, the analysis of data obtained from the Pinterest boards of ten individuals shows that the vast majority of food-related information in this setting is US-sourced. A questionnaire provides further insight into the individuals’ Pinterest usage. I argue that pinning is an act of online identity management, whether it is a conscious act or a situational effect, and that using Pinterest maintains and even strengthens these individuals’ cultural identity as Americans. This study adds to current discussions pertaining to transnationalism, globalization, and online cultural identity, as well as opens channels for further research on this dynamic topic, which is needed to understand ourselves as cultural beings in the digital age.

Linguistic expression of irony in social media

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências da Linguagem, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

Risk Factors and Associations for Hepatitis C Infection among Hispanic/Latino Intravenous Drug Users in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Hepatitis C infection (HCV) continues to disproportionately affect Hispanics/Latinos in the United States. Hispanic/Latino intravenous drug users (IDUs), because of their risky injection and sexual behaviors, are prone to HCV infection and rapid transmission of the virus to others via several routes. With a prevalence rate of approximately 75% among IDUs, it is imperative that transmission of HCV be prevented in this population. This study aims to examine the associations between demographic, injection and sexual risk factors to HCV infection in a group Hispanic/Latino IDUs in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Preliminary unadjusted results in this sample reveal that age (OR=4.592, p=0.004), weekly injection (OR=5.171, p=0.000), daily injection frequency (OR=3.856, p=0.000) and use of a dirty needle (OR=2.320, p= 0.006) were all significantly associated with HCV infection. Being born outside the U.S. was significantly negatively associated with HCV infection (OR=0.349, p=0.004). Additionally, having two or more sex partners in the past three months (OR=0.472, p=0.014) was negatively associated with HCV infection. After adjusting for all other variables, older age (AOR=7.470, p=0.006), weekly injection (AOR=3.238, p=0.007) and daily injection frequency (AOR=2.625, p=0.010) were all significantly associated with HCV infection. Being born outside the U.S. (AOR=0.369, p=0.019) was a significant protective factor for HCV infection, along with having two or more sex partners in the past three months (AOR=0.481, p=0.037). When analyzing the significant variables in a backward regression model, having 2 or more sex partners in the past three months was not significant at the p

Meeting report from the fourth meeting of the Computational Modeling in Biology Network (COMBINE)

This report summarizes the topics and activities of the fourth edition of the annual COMBINE meeting, held in Paris during September 16-20 2013,

Mobility and satisfaction with lower-limb prostheses and orthoses among users in Sierra Leone: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: To investigate patients' mobility and satisfaction with their lower-limb prosthetic or orthotic device and related service delivery in Sierra Leone; to compare groups of patients regarding type and level of assistive device, gender, area of residence, income; and to identify factors associated with satisfaction with the assistive device and service. Methods: A total of 139 patients answered questionnaires, including the Quebec User Evaluation of Satisfaction with Assistive Technology questionnaire (QUEST 2.0). Results: Eighty-six percent of assistive devices were in use, but half needed repair. Thirty-three percent of patients reported pain when using their assistive device. Patients had difficulties or could not walk at all on: uneven ground (65%); hills (75%); and stairs (66%). Patients were quite satisfied with their assistive device and the service (mean 3.7 out of 5 in QUEST), but reported 886 problems. Approximately half of the patients could not access services. In relation to mobility and service delivery, women, orthotic patients and patients using above-knee assistive devices had the poorest results. The general condition of the assistive device and patients' ability to walk on uneven ground were associated with satisfaction with the assistive devices and service. Conclusion: Patients reported high levels of mobility while using their device although they experienced pain and difficulties walking on challenging surfaces. Limitations in the effectiveness of assistive devices and limited access to follow-up services and repairs were issues desired to be addressed.

Automated service provisioning in programmable network infrastructures

Modern networks are undergoing a fast and drastic evolution, with software taking a more predominant role. Virtualization and cloud-like approaches are replacing physical network appliances, reducing the management burden of the operators. Furthermore, networks now expose programmable interfaces for fast and dynamic control over traffic forwarding. This evolution is backed by standard organizations such as ETSI, 3GPP, and IETF. This thesis will describe which are the main trends in this evolution. Then, it will present solutions developed during the three years of Ph.D. to exploit the capabilities these new technologies offer and to study their possible limitations to push further the state-of-the-art. Namely, it will deal with programmable network infrastructure, introducing the concept of Service Function Chaining (SFC) and presenting two possible solutions, one with Openstack and OpenFlow and the other using Segment Routing and IPv6. Then, it will continue with network service provisioning, presenting concepts from Network Function Virtualization (NFV) and Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC). These concepts will be applied to network slicing for mission-critical communications and Industrial IoT (IIoT). Finally, it will deal with network abstraction, with a focus on Intent Based Networking (IBN). To summarize, the thesis will include solutions for data plane programming with evaluation on well-known platforms, performance metrics on virtual resource allocations, novel practical application of network slicing on mission-critical communications, an architectural proposal and its implementation for edge technologies in Industrial IoT scenarios, and a formal definition of intent using a category theory approach.