Strontium isotopes and sedimentology of a marine Triassic succession (upper Ladinian) of the westernmost Tethys, Spain

Chemical Stratigraphy, or the study of the variation of chemical elements within sedimentary sequences, has gradually become an experienced tool in the research and correlation of global geologic events. In this paper 87Sr/ 86Sr ratios of the Triassic marine carbonates (Muschelkalk facies) of southeast Iberian Ranges, Iberian Peninsula, are presented and the representative Sr-isotopic curve constructed for the upper Ladinian interval. The studied stratigraphic succession is 102 meters thick, continuous, and well preserved. Previous paleontological data from macro and micro, ammonites, bivalves, foraminifera, conodonts and palynological assemblages, suggest a Fassanian-Longobardian age (Late Ladinian). Although diagenetic minerals are present in small amounts, the elemental data content of bulk carbonate samples, especially Sr contents, show a major variation that probably reflects palaeoenvironmental changes. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios curve shows a rise from 0.707649 near the base of the section to 0.707741 and then declines rapidly to 0.707624, with a final values rise up to 0.70787 in the upper part. The data up to meter 80 in the studied succession is broadly concurrent with 87Sr/86Sr ratios of sequences of similar age and complements these data. Moreover, the sequence stratigraphic framework and its key surfaces, which are difficult to be recognised just based in the facies analysis, are characterised by combining variations of the Ca, Mg, Mn, Sr and CaCO3 contents

¿Fue la crisis política del Occidente musulmán del siglo XIII debida a un cambio climático? Una aproximación histórica al fin del Periodo Cálido Medieval

Durante el siglo XIII se produjo una sucesión de revueltas que supuso la desaparición del Imperio almohade y su sustitución por poderes regionales en al-Andalus, el Magreb y el Magreb al-Aqsà. La historiografía ha presentado el surgimiento y pugna entre estos poderes como un fenómeno social, político e, incluso, cultural y religioso, con el que se ha podido explicar su aniquilación o marginalización. Este trabajo pretende contextualizar los hechos desde una perspectiva medioambiental, de forma que la desintegración del califato almohade, el surgimiento de aquellos poderes y la progresión de los reinos cristianos en la península ibérica puedan entenderse desde una visión global de cambio climático y una posible crisis agrícola.

Russia and the Global Security Strategy of the European Union

The present article reviews the relations between the EU and Russia in the past decade and shows the deterioration of the bilateral relations. The Putin´s Russia has become a very active geostrategic player, with a worrying behaviour, breaking balances in the international scene established since the end of the Cold War. Russia is a priority in the Foreign and Security Policy of the European Global Security Strategy, but has become also a clear competitor. This last aspect is not sufficiently underlined in the Strategy and thus the strategic framework is not clear. In parallel, it is not clear in the Strategy which are the tools the EU has to defend its neighbourhood when their independence, sovereignty or territorial defence may be put in question. This question goes beyond the support to the resilience of those neighbours.

La Comunità ebraica di Shanghai

The Jewish community in Shanghai was among the first to settle in the Treaty Ports which were opened after the Opium war. Jewish population grew until the rendition of the foreign settlements to the Chinese authorities, and its history broadly consists of three periods.The first Jews came to Shanghai in the XIX century were sephardits from Iraq and India. Among those emigrated to Shanghai following the expansion of the British commerce in China were such famous families as Sassoons, Hardoons and Kadoories.The second wave arrived with the White Russians exodus after the October Revolution; they were askanzits Jews who fled from pogroms and the Russian civil war. The third wave were Jews fleeing from central Europe in the 1930s. This group was the largest of the three.The first settlers saw Shanghai as a port of opportunities, while the others came there seeking refuge.The interwar Shanghai could offer protection and a temporary place of residence for Jewish people. In the 1920s and 1930s Jews coming to Shanghai were helped by local Jewish associations, which supported them in the search for accommodations and jobs. This net of associations was effective until WWII. The war, however, made them face increasing number of contraints. In this constrained situation we should remember that the Japanese authorities, occupying the International Settlement, imposed a ban for new Jewish arrivals to settle in the Hongkou district; while the French authorities under the Vichy government imposed a complete ban on Jewish residents in their concession. Finally, the Jewish immigration to Shanghai had stopped completely in 1942, because there were no more ways to get there.Japanese authorities, however, were not interested in applying the racial laws as their priority lay in the conquest of China. And although the Jews were in an enemy's territory, they were not persecuted. In fact, when the war was over they left Shanghai directly to the United States and Israel.

Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

Politics and protestant Lordship in North East Scotland during the reign of James VI: The life of George Keith, fourth Earl Marischal, 1554-1623

George Keith, fourth Earl Marischal is a case study of long-term, quietly successful and stable lordship through the reign of James VI. Marischal’s life provides a wholly underrepresented perspective on this era, where the study of rebellious and notorious characters has dominated. He is also a counter-example to the notion of a general crisis among the European nobility, at least in the Scottish context, as well as to the notion of a ‘conservative’ or ‘Catholic’ north east. In 1580 George inherited the richest earldom in Scotland, with a geographical extent stretching along the east coast from Caithness to East Lothian. His family came to be this wealthy as a long term consequence of the Battle of Flodden (1513) where a branch of the family, the Inverugie Keiths had been killed. The heiress of this branch was married to the third earl and this had concentrated a large number of lands, and consequently wealth, in the hands of the earls. This had, however, also significantly decreased the number of members and hence power of the Keith kindred. The third earl’s conversion to Protestantism in 1544 and later his adherence to the King’s Party during the Marian Civil War forced the Keiths into direct confrontation with their neighbours in the north east, the Gordons (led by the Earls of Huntly), a Catholic family and supporters of the Queen’s Party. Although this feud was settled for a time at the end of the war, the political turmoil caused by a succession of short-lived factional regimes in the early part of the personal reign of James VI (c.1578-1585) led the new (fourth) Earl Marischal into direct confrontation with the new (sixth) Earl of Huntly. Marischal was outclassed, outmanoeuvred and outgunned at both court and in the locality in this feud, suffering considerably. However, Huntly’s over-ambition in wider court politics meant that Marischal was able to join various coalitions against his rival, until Huntly was exiled in 1595. Marischal also came into conflict briefly with Chancellor John Maitland of Thirlestane as a consequence of Marischal’s diplomatic mission to Denmark in 1589-1590, but was again outmatched politically and briefly imprisoned. Both of these feuds reveal Marischal to be relatively cautious and reactionary, and both reveal the limitations of his power. Elsewhere, the study of Marischal’s activities in the centre of Scottish politics reveal him to be unambitious. He was ready to serve King James, the two men having a healthy working relationship, but Marischal showed no ambition as a courtier, to woo the king’s favour or patronage, instead delegating interaction with the monarch to his kinsmen. Likewise, in government, Marischal rarely attended any of the committees he was entitled to attend, such as the Privy Council, although he did keep a keen eye on the land market and the business conducted under the Great Seal. Although personally devout and a committed Protestant, the study of Marischal’s interaction with the national Kirk and the parishes of which he was patron reveal that he was at times a negligent patron and exercised his right of ministerial presentation as lordly, not godly patronage. The notion of a ‘conservative North East’ is, however, rejected. Where Marischal was politically weak at court and weak in terms of force in the locality, we see him pursuing sideways approaches to dealing with this. Thus he was keen to build up his general influence in the north and in particular with the burgh of Aberdeen (one result of this being the creation of Marischal College in 1593), pursued disputes through increasing use of legal methods rather than bloodfeud (thus exploiting his wealth and compensating for his relative lack of force) and developed a sophisticated system of maritime infrastructure, ultimately expressed through the creating of the burghs of Peterhead and Stonehaven. Although his close family caused him a number of problems over his lifetime, he was able to pass on a stable and enlarged lordship to his son in 1623.

Analyses of permeability and porosity of sedimentary rocks in terms of unconventional geothermal resource explorations in Poland

Petrophysical investigations are fundamental to natural resource exploration. In order to recognise the geothermal potential of sedimentary rocks in central Poland, 259 samples were collected from prospective deep-lying geothermal reservoirs. Parameters measured include bulk density, skeletal density, effective porosity, permeability, average pore diameter and specific surface. Results indicate that at great depths (mostly > 3,000 m below surface) sedimentary rocks show low values of porosity (mainly less than 5%) and permeability (only sporadically in excess of 1 md). These values call for a petrothermal use of reservoirs, for which an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) was developed. Reser- voirs suited for the EGS are Carboniferous and Lower Triassic sandstones in the central part of Poland (Mogilno-Łódź Trough region and a small part of the Kujawy Swell and Fore-Sudetic regions). In addition, Carboniferous limestones in this area are potentially prospective.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Espionage against Poland in the Documents and Analyses of the Polish Special Services (1944 - 1989) - as Illustrated by the Intelligence Activities of the USA

The text analyses the intelligence activity against Poland in the period 1944-1989. The paper also contains a case study, i.e. an analysis of the American intelligence service activity held against Poland. While examining the research thesis, the author used the documents and analyses prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. In order to best illustrate the point, the author presented a number of cases of persons who spied for the USA, which was possible thanks to the analysis of the training materials of the Ministry of Internal Affairs directed to the officers of the Security Service and the Citizens’ Militia. The text tackles the following issues: (1) to what extent did the character of the socio-political system influence the number of persons convicted for espionage against Poland in the period under examination?, (2) what was the level of interest of the foreign intelligence services in Poland before the year 1990?, (3) is it possible to indicate the specificity of the U.S. intelligence activity against Poland? 1) The analysis of data indicates that the period 1946-1956 witnessed a great number of convictions for espionage, which is often associated with the peculiar political situation in Poland of that time. Up to 1953, the countries of the Eastern bloc had reproduced the Stalin’s system, which only ceased due to the death of Stalin himself. Since then, the communist systems gradually transformed into the system of nomenklatura. Irrespective of these changes, Poland still witnessed a wave of repressions, which resulted from the threats continuously looming over the communist authorities – combating the anti-communist underground movement, fighting with the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the Polish government-in-exile, possible revisionism of borders, social discontent related to the socio-political reforms. Hence, a great number of convictions for espionage at that time could be ascribed to purely political sentences. Moreover, equally significant was the fact that the then judicial practice was preoccupied assessing negatively any contacts and relations with foreigners. This excessive number of convictions could ensue from other criminal-law provisions, which applied with respect to the crimes against the State, including espionage. What is also important is the fact that in the Stalin’s period the judiciary personnel acquired their skills and qualifications through intensive courses in law with the predominant spirit of the theory of evidence and law by Andrey Vyshinsky. Additionally, by the decree of 1944 the Penal Code of the Polish Armed Forces was introduced; the code envisaged the increase in the number of offences classified as penalised with death penalty, whereas the high treason was subject to the military jurisdiction (the civilians were prosecuted in military courts till 1955; the espionage, however, still stood under the military jurisdiction). In 1946, there was introduced the Decree on particularly dangerous crimes in the period of the State’s recovery, which was later called a Small Penal Code. 2) The interest that foreign intelligence services expressed in relation to Poland was similar to the one they had in all countries of Eastern and Central Europe. In the case of Poland, it should be noted that foreign intelligence services recruited Polish citizens who had previously stayed abroad and after WWII returned to their home country. The services also gathered information from Poles staying in immigrant camps (e.g. in FRG). The activity of the American intelligence service on the territory of FRG and West Berlin played a key role. The documents of the Ministry of Internal Affairs pointed to the global range of this activity, e.g. through the recruitment of Polish sailors in the ports of the Netherlands, Japan, etc. In line with the development in the 1970s, espionage, which had so far concentrated on the defence and strategic sectors, became focused on science and technology of the People’s Republic of Poland. The acquisition of collaborators in academic circles was much easier, as PRL opened to academic exchange. Due to the system of visas, the process of candidate selection for intelligence services (e.g. the American) began in embassies. In the 1980s, the activity of the foreign intelligence services concentrated on the specific political situation in Poland, i.e. the growing significance of the “Solidarity” social movement. 3) The specificity of the American intelligence activity against Poland was related to the composition of the residency staff, which was the largest in comparison to other Western countries. The wide range of these activities can be proved by the quantitative data of convictions for espionage in the years 1944-1984 (however, one has to bear in mind the factors mentioned earlier in the text, which led to the misinterpretation of these data). Analysing the data and the documents prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, one should treat them with caution, as, frequently, the Polish counter-intelligence service used to classify the ordinary diplomatic practice and any contacts with foreigners as espionage threats. It is clearly visible in the language of the training materials concerned with “secret service methods of the intelligence activity” as well as in the documents on operational activities of the Security Service in relation to foreigners. The level of interest the USA had in Poland was mirrored in the classification of diplomatic posts, according to which Warsaw occupied the second place (the so-called Group “B”) on the three-point scale. The CIA experienced spectacular defeats during their activity in Poland: supporting the Polish underground anti-communist organisation Freedom and Independence and the so-called Munich-Berg episode (both cases took place in the 1950s). The text focuses only on selected issues related to the espionage activities against Poland. Similarly, the analysis of the problem has been based on selected sources, which has limited the research scope - however, it was not the aim of the author to present the espionage activity against Poland in a comprehensive way. In order to assess the real threat posed by the espionage activity, one should analyse the case of persons convicted for espionage in the period 1944-1989, as the available quantitative data, mentioned in the text, cannot constitute an explicit benchmark for the scale of espionage activity. The inaccuracies in the interpretation of data and variables, which can affect the evaluation of this phenomenon, have been pointed out in the text.

Running in the Family – Paternalism and Familiness in the Development of Family Businesses

The study focuses on two features of family businesses (FBs), namely familiness and paternalism. These two concepts are inseparable in two ways: inseparable from family businesses and also from each other. Family businesses differ from one another in the degree of family involvement, leadership and management in the business. Paternalism as a leadership attitude is naturally present in FBs, especially in the founding stage of development. This feature provides the solid bases for establishing a strong and proud culture built around the personality and success of the founder. This characteristic however can become a major hindering factor upon succession. Through a review of the literature and the INSIST studies for Central Europe this study aims to identify the supportive and limiting factors of both phenomena and examine the case studies of the INSIST research project for signs of the existence of these supportive and limiting factors. It is found that the degree of familiness in these firms is a sliding scale and a lack of familiness is not a precursor for failure. Paternalism is found to be broken down into authoritarian, benevolent, moral and enlightened. After discovering studies claiming that paternalism is a stage in the process of leadership style changing from participative to autocratic (or vice versa) and that Central Europe and the current era of instability and uncertainty lead to employees preferring a more autocratic or paternalistic style, our findings suggest that there are more driving than restraining forces for family firms adopting a paternalistic style. Furthermore many cases appear to be on the path from an authoritative towards a more enlightened paternalistic leadership style either out of choice in the search to shake off the drawbacks of other types of paternalism or as part of a natural evolution of this particular leadership style within the context of this study.

Sixty Years On: How the Superpowers Could Have Avoided the 1956 Hungarian Revolution

Following the political transition in Hungary and in East-Central Europe in 1989-90 an archival revolution unfolded in the countries of the former Soviet bloc, including Russia after 1991. Thanks to this process, the previously taboo topic of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution has become one of the best researched events of the history of the Soviet Bloc by the time of the sixtieth anniversary of the events. This includes the international context of the revolt as well, which has been covered by scholars in Hungary and abroad based on multiarchival evidence.

From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT

Increasing in resolution of numerical weather prediction models has allowed more and more realistic forecasts of atmospheric parameters. Due to the growing variability into predicted fields the traditional verification methods are not always able to describe the model ability because they are based on a grid-point-by-grid-point matching between observation and prediction. Recently, new spatial verification methods have been developed with the aim of show the benefit associated to the high resolution forecast. Nested in among of the MesoVICT international project, the initially aim of this work is to compare the newly tecniques remarking advantages and disadvantages. First of all, the MesoVICT basic examples, represented by synthetic precipitation fields, have been examined. Giving an error evaluation in terms of structure, amplitude and localization of the precipitation fields, the SAL method has been studied more thoroughly respect to the others approaches with its implementation in the core cases of the project. The verification procedure has concerned precipitation fields over central Europe: comparisons between the forecasts performed by the 00z COSMO-2 model and the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) have been done. The study of these cases has shown some weaknesses of the methodology examined; in particular has been highlighted the presence of a correlation between the optimal domain size and the extention of the precipitation systems. In order to increase ability of SAL, a subdivision of the original domain in three subdomains has been done and the method has been applied again. Some limits have been found in cases in which at least one of the two domains does not show precipitation. The overall results for the subdomains have been summarized on scatter plots. With the aim to identify systematic errors of the model the variability of the three parameters has been studied for each subdomain.

Databases for quantitative history

This paper will propose that, rather than sitting on silos of data, historians that utilise quantitative methods should endeavour to make their data accessible through databases, and treat this as a new form of bibliographic entry. Of course in many instances historical data does not lend itself easily to the creation of such data sets. With this in mind some of the issues regarding normalising raw historical data will be looked at with reference to current work on nineteenth century Irish trade. These issues encompass (but are not limited to) measurement systems, geographic locations, and potential problems that may arise in attempting to unify disaggregated sources. It will discuss the need for a concerted effort by historians to define what is required from digital resources for them to be considered accurate, and to what extent the normalisation requirements for database systems may conflict with the desire for accuracy. Many of the issues that the historian may encounter engaging with databases will be common to all historians, and there would be merit in having defined standards for referencing items, such as people, places, locations, and measurements.

Improved recommendation of photo-taking locations using virtual ratings

We consider the task of collaborative recommendation of photo-taking locations. We use datasets of geotagged photos. We map their locations to a location grid using a geohashing algorithm, resulting in a user x location implicit feedback matrix. Our improvements relative to previous work are twofold. First, we create virtual ratings by spreading users' preferences to neighbouring grid locations. This makes the assumption that users have some preference for locations close to the ones in which they take their photos. These virtual ratings help overcome the discrete nature of the geohashing. Second, we normalize the implicit frequency-based ratings to a 1-5 scale using a method that has been found to be useful in music recommendation algorithms. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach with new experiments that show large increases in hit rate and related metrics.