Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Seed development, yield and quality of two palm species growing in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil: implications for ecological restoration

Natural forest remnants have been set as seed production fields to supply seeds of native tree species for tropical forest restoration, but the effect of different forest types on seed production has not been accessed to date for palm species. In this work, we studied seed development, yield, and quality of two palm species in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil. Seed production of palmiteiro (Euterpe edulis) and queen-palm (Syagrus romanzoffiana), which are largely used in restoration efforts due to their importance for vertebrate frugivores, were studied in natural remnants of Atlantic Rainforest, Restinga Forest, Seasonally Dry Forest, and Cerrado Forest. We studied seed development, yield, size, and germination of seed lots produced in some of these forest types, including seeds harvested in 2008, 2009, and both years. Seed yield and quality, as well as seed dry mass in 2009, were higher for palmiteiro seeds produced in the Atlantic Rainforest, while queen-palm seeds produced at the Restinga Forest showed the higher mass and yield, but the lowest physiological potential. Consequently, these natural differences of seed yield and quality have to be taken into account for establishing standards for seed commercialization and analysis, seed pricing, and seedling production in forest nurseries.

A Novel Nonparametric Density Estimator

We present a novel nonparametric density estimator and a new data-driven bandwidth selection method with excellent properties. The approach is in- spired by the principles of the generalized cross entropy method. The pro- posed density estimation procedure has numerous advantages over the tra- ditional kernel density estimator methods. Firstly, for the first time in the nonparametric literature, the proposed estimator allows for a genuine incor- poration of prior information in the density estimation procedure. Secondly, the approach provides the first data-driven bandwidth selection method that is guaranteed to provide a unique bandwidth for any data. Lastly, simulation examples suggest the proposed approach outperforms the current state of the art in nonparametric density estimation in terms of accuracy and reliability.

A method to lower the detection limit for optical beat signals from a frequency-dithered stabilized laser

A narrow absorption feature in an atomic or molecular gas (such as iodine or methane) is used as the frequency reference in many stabilized lasers. As part of the stabilization scheme an optical frequency dither is applied to the laser. In optical heterodyne experiments, this dither is transferred to the RF beat signal, reducing the spectral power density and hence the signal to noise ratio over that in the absence of dither. We removed the dither by mixing the raw beat signal with a dithered local oscillator signal. When the dither waveform is matched to that of the reference laser the output signal from the mixer is rendered dither free. Application of this method to a Winters iodine-stabilized helium-neon laser reduced the bandwidth of the beat signal from 6 MHz to 390 kHz, thereby lowering the detection threshold from 5 pW of laser power to 3 pW. In addition, a simple signal detection model is developed which predicts similar threshold reductions.

Analytical solution for the Mollow and Autler-Townes probe absorption spectra of a three-level atom in a squeezed vacuum

The Mellow and Autler-Townes probe absorption spectra of a three-level atom in a cascade configuration with the lower transition coherently driven and also coupled to a narrow bandwidth squeezed-vacuum field are studied. Analytical studies of the modifications caused by the finite squeezed-vacuum bandwidth to the spectra are made for the case when the Rabi frequency of the driving field is much larger than the natural linewidth. The squeezed vacuum center frequency and the driving laser frequency are assumed equal. We show that the spectral features depend on the bandwidth of a squeezed vacuum field and whether the sources of the squeezing field are degenerate (DPA) or nondegenerate (NDPA) parametric amplifiers. In a broadband or narrow bandwidth squeezed vacuum generated by a NDPA, the central component of the Mellow spectrum can be significantly narrower than that in the normal vacuum. When the source of the squeezed vacuum is a DPA, the central feature is insensitive to squeezing. The Rabi sidebands, however, can be significantly narrowed only in the squeezed vacuum produced by the DPA. The two lines of the Autler-Townes absorption spectrum can be narrowed only in a narrow bandwidth squeezed vacuum, whereas they are independent of the phase and are always broadened in a broadband squeezed vacuum.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands

Considerable resources have been expended promoting hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes to farmers in the Philippine uplands. Despite the resources committed to research and extension, persistent adoption by farmers has been limited to low cost versions of the technology including natural vegetation and grass strips. In this paper, cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic returns from traditional open-field maize farming with returns from intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows, natural vegetation strips and grass strips. An erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry, was used to predict the effect of erosion on maize yields. Key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers were used to derive production budgets for the alternative farming methods. The economic incentives revealed by the cost-benefit analysis help to explain the adoption of maize farming methods in the Philippine uplands. Open-field farming without hedgerows has been by far the most popular method of maize production, often with two or more fields cropped in rotation. There is little persistent adoption of hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes because sustained maize yields are not realised rapidly enough to compensate farmers for establishment and maintenance costs. Natural vegetation and grass strips are more attractive to farmers because of lower establishment costs, and provide intermediate steps to adoption. Rural finance, commodity pricing and agrarian reform policies influence the incentives for maize farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt and maintain hedgerow intercropping.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Absorption spectrum of a strongly driven atom in a detuned squeezed vacuum

We present numerical and analytical results for the Mollow probe absorption spectrum of a coherently driven two-level system in a narrow bandwidth squeezed vacuum field. The spectra are calculated for the case where the Rabi frequency of the driving field is much larger than the natural linewidth and the squeezed vacuum carrier frequency is detuned from the driving laser frequency. The driving laser is on resonance. We show that in a detuned squeezed vacuum the standard Mellow features are each split into triplets. The central components of each triplet are weakly dependent on the squeezing phase but the sidebands strongly depend on the phase and can have dispersive or absorptive/emissive profiles. We also derive approximate analytical expressions for the spectral features and find that the multi-peak structure of the spectrum can be interpreted either via the eigenfrequencies of a generalized Floquet Hamiltonian or in terms of three-photon transitions between dressed stales involving a probe field photon and a correlated photon pair from the squeezed vacuum field.

Inter-subband redundancy prediction using neural network for video coding

High performance video codec is mandatory for multimedia applications such as video-on-demand and video conferencing. Recent research has proposed numerous video coding techniques to meet the requirement in bandwidth, delay, loss and Quality-of-Service (QoS). In this paper, we present our investigations on inter-subband self-similarity within the wavelet-decomposed video frames using neural networks, and study the performance of applying the spatial network model to all video frames over time. The goal of our proposed method is to restore the highest perceptual quality for video transmitted over a highly congested network. Our contributions in this paper are: (1) A new coding model with neural network based, inter-subband redundancy (ISR) prediction for video coding using wavelet (2) The performance of 1D and 2D ISR prediction, including multiple levels of wavelet decompositions. Our result shows a short-term quality enhancement may be obtained using both 1D and 2D ISR prediction.

Revisiting the interest rate puzzle

This article makes a connection between Lucas` (1978) asset pricing model and the macroeconomic dynamics for some selected countries. Both the relative risk aversion and the impatience for postponing consumption by synthesizing the investor behaviour can help to understand some key macroeconomic issues across countries, such as the savings decision and the real interest rate. I find that the government consumption makes worse the so-called `equity premium-interest rate puzzle`. The first root of the quadratic function for explaining the real interest rate can produce this puzzle, but not the second root. Thus, Mehra and Prescott (1985) identified only one possible solution.

Auction price anomalies: Evidence from wool auctions in Australia

Using detailed Australian wool auction data we test for further evidence of pricing anomalies at sequential auctions. We find that an anomaly frequently exists and order is frequently endogenously determined. Moreover, prices increase through some sales and decrease through others. We examine whether it is possible to explain the variation in the anomaly across sales and conclude that there is no systematic relationship between the direction of the price anomaly and the characteristics of the wool or the auction. We do, however, find evidence that an anomaly, is more likely in longer sales.

Visible and near-infrared luminescent Eu(3+) or Er(3+) doped laponite-derived xerogels and thick films: Structural and spectroscopic properties

Laponite-derived materials represent promising materials for optical applications. In this work, Eu(3+)- or Er(3+)-doped laponite xerogels and films were prepared from colloidal dispersion. Homogeneous, crack-free and transparent single layers were deposited on soda-lime substrates with a thickness of 10 mu m. Structural and spectroscopic properties were analyzed by thermal analyses, X-ray diffractometry, transmission electron microscopy, infrared spectroscopy, and luminescence spectroscopy. The addition of a rare earth ion to the laponite does not promote any changes in thermal stability or phase transition. Laponite clay was identified after annealing up to 500 degrees C, with a decrease in basal spacing when the annealing temperature is changed from 100 degrees C to 500 degrees C. Enstatite polymorphs and amorphous silicate phases were observed after heat treatment at 700 degrees C and 900 degrees C. Stationary and time-dependent luminescence spectra in the visible region for Eu(3+), and (5)D(0) lifetime are discussed in terms of thermal treatment and structural evolution. In the layered host, the Eu(3+) ions are distributed in many different local environments. However, Eu(3+) ions were found to occupy at least two symmetry sites, and the ions are preferentially incorporated into the crystalline enstatite for the materials annealed at 700 degrees C and 900 degrees C. A (5)D(0) lifetime of 1.3 ms and 3.1 ms was obtained for Eu(3+) ions in an amorphous silicate and crystalline MgSiO(3) local environment, respectively. Strong Er(3+) emission at the 1550 nm region was observed for the materials annealed at 900 degrees C, with a bandwidth of 44 nm. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ferromagnetism, paramagnetism, and a Curie-Weiss metal in an electron-doped Hubbard model on a triangular lattice

Motivated by the unconventional properties and rich phase diagram of NaxCoO2 we consider the electronic and magnetic properties of a two-dimensional Hubbard model on an isotropic triangular lattice doped with electrons away from half-filling. Dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations predict that for negative intersite hopping amplitudes (t < 0) and an on-site Coulomb repulsion, U, comparable to the bandwidth, the system displays properties typical of a weakly correlated metal. In contrast, for t > 0 a large enhancement of the effective mass, itinerant ferromagnetism, and a metallic phase with a Curie-Weiss magnetic susceptibility are found in a broad electron doping range. The different behavior encountered is a consequence of the larger noninteracting density of states (DOS) at the Fermi level for t > 0 than for t < 0, which effectively enhances the mass and the scattering amplitude of the quasiparticles. The shape of the DOS is crucial for the occurrence of ferromagnetism as for t > 0 the energy cost of polarizing the system is much smaller than for t < 0. Our observation of Nagaoka ferromagnetism is consistent with the A-type antiferromagnetism (i.e., ferromagnetic layers stacked antiferromagnetically) observed in neutron scattering experiments on NaxCoO2. The transport and magnetic properties measured in NaxCoO2 are consistent with DMFT predictions of a metal close to the Mott insulator and we discuss the role of Na ordering in driving the system towards the Mott transition. We propose that the Curie-Weiss metal phase observed in NaxCoO2 is a consequence of the crossover from a bad metal with incoherent quasiparticles at temperatures T > T-* and Fermi liquid behavior with enhanced parameters below T-*, where T-* is a low energy coherence scale induced by strong local Coulomb electron correlations. Our analysis also shows that the one band Hubbard model on a triangular lattice is not enough to describe the unusual properties of NaxCoO2 and is used to identify the simplest relevant model that captures the essential physics in NaxCoO2. We propose a model which allows for the Na ordering phenomena observed in the system which, we propose, drives the system close to the Mott insulating phase even at large dopings.

Pure two-atom squeezed state in spontaneous emission from two non-identical atoms

We calculate the stationary state of the system of two non-identical two-level atoms driven by a finite-bandwidth two-mode squeezed vacuum. It is well known that two identical two-level atoms driven by a broadband squeezed vacuum may decay to a pure state, called the pure two-atom squeezed state, and that the presence of the antisymmetric state can change its purity. Here, we show that for small interatomic separations the stationary state of two non-identical atoms is not sensitive to the presence of the antisymmetric state and is the pure two-atom squeezed state. This effect is a consequence of the fact that in the system of two non-identical atoms the antisymmetric state is no longer the trapping state. We also calculate the squeezing properties of the emitted field and find that the squeezing spectrum of the output field may exhibit larger squeezing than that in the input squeezed vacuum. Moreover, we show that squeezing in the total field attains the optimum value which can ever be achieved in the field emitted by two atoms.