Analysts' Forecast Accuracy in Germany: The Effect of Different Accounting Principles and Changes of Accounting Principles

This paper assesses the influence of an adoption of IAS/IFRS or US GAAP on the financial analysts’ forecast accuracy in a homogenous institutional framework. Our findings suggest that the forecast accuracy is higher for estimates based on IFRS or US GAAP data than for forecasts based on German GAAP data.Moreover, in the year of switching from German GAAP to US GAAP the forecast accuracy is lower than in other years. The paper contributes to prior research by providing evidence about the usefulness of international accounting data and about the adoption effects of a change to such accounting principles.

Assessing the Relevance of Anomie Theory for Explaining Spatial Variation in Lethal Criminal Violence: An Aggregate-Level Analysis of Homicide within the United States

One of the most influential statements in the anomie theory tradition has been Merton’s argument that the volume of instrumental property crime should be higher where there is a greater imbalance between the degree of commitment to monetary success goals and the degree of commitment to legitimate means of pursing such goals. Contemporary anomie theories stimulated by Merton’s perspective, most notably Messner and Rosenfeld’s institutional anomie theory, have expanded the scope conditions by emphasizing lethal criminal violence as an outcome to which anomie theory is highly relevant, and virtually all contemporary empirical studies have focused on applying the perspective to explaining spatial variation in homicide rates. In the present paper, we argue that current explications of Merton’s theory and IAT have not adequately conveyed the relevance of the core features of the anomie perspective to lethal violence. We propose an expanded anomie model in which an unbalanced pecuniary value system – the core causal variable in Merton’s theory and IAT – translates into higher levels of homicide primarily in indirect ways by increasing levels of firearm prevalence, drug market activity, and property crime, and by enhancing the degree to which these factors stimulate lethal outcomes. Using aggregate-level data collected during the mid-to-late 1970s for a sample of relatively large social aggregates within the U.S., we find a significant effect on homicide rates of an interaction term reflecting high levels of commitment to monetary success goals and low levels of commitment to legitimate means. Virtually all of this effect is accounted for by higher levels of property crime and drug market activity that occur in areas with an unbalanced pecuniary value system. Our analysis also reveals that property crime is more apt to lead to homicide under conditions of high levels of structural disadvantage. These and other findings underscore the potential value of elaborating the anomie perspective to explicitly account for lethal violence.

A Simple Accounting-based Valuation Model for the Debt Tax Shield

This paper describes a simple way to integrate the debt tax shield into an accounting-based valuation model. The market value of equity is determined by forecasting residual operating income, which is calculated by charging operating income for the operating assets at a required return that accounts for the tax benefit that comes from borrowing to raise cash for the operations. The model assumes that the firm maintains a deterministic financial leverage ratio, which tends to converge quickly to typical steady-state levels over time. From a practical point of view, this characteristic is of particular help, because it allows a continuing value calculation at the end of a short forecast period.

Decision-usefulness of ideal cost- and ideal value accounting for valuation and stewardship

This paper contrasts the decision-usefulness of prototype accounting regimes based on perfect accounting for value, i.e. ideal value accounting (IVA), and perfect matching of cost, i.e. ideal cost accounting (ICA). The regimes are analyzed in the context of a firm with overlapping capacity investments where projects earn excess returns and residual income is utilized as performance indicator. Provided that IVA and ICA systematically differ based on the criterion of unconditional conservatism, we assess their respective decision-usefulness for different valuation- and stewardship-scenarios. Assuming that addressees solely observe current accounting data of the firm, ICA provides information which is useful for valuation and stewardship without reservation whereas IVA entails problems under specific assumptions.

Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

Phylogeography of silver pheasant (Lophura nycthemera L.) across China: aggregate effects of refugia, introgression, and riverine barriers

The role of Pleistocene glacial cycles in forming the contemporary genetic structure of organisms has been well studied in China with a particular focus on the Tibetan Plateau. However, China has a complex topography and diversity of local climates, and how glacial cycles may have shaped the subtropical and tropical biota of the region remains mostly unaddressed. To investigate the factors that affected the phylogeography and population history of a widely distributed and nondeciduous forest species, we analysed morphological characters, mitochondrial DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellite loci in the Silver Pheasant (Lophura nycthemera). In a pattern generally consistent with phenotypic clusters, but not nominal subspecies, deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages restricted to different geographic regions were detected. Coalescent simulations indicated that the time of main divergence events corresponded to major glacial periods in the Pleistocene and gene flow was only partially lowered by drainage barriers between some populations. Intraspecific cytonuclear discordance was revealed in mitochondrial lineages from Hainan Island and the Sichuan Basin with evidence of nuclear gene flow from neighbouring populations into the latter. Unexpectedly, hybridization was revealed in Yingjiang between the Silver Pheasant and Kalij Pheasant (Lophura leucomelanos) with wide genetic introgression at both the mtDNA and nuclear levels. Our results highlight a novel phylogeographic pattern in a subtropical area generated from the combined effects of climate oscillation, partial drainage barriers and interspecific hybridization. Cytonuclear discordance combined with morphological differentiation implies that complex historical factors shaped the divergence process in this biodiversity hot spot area of southern China.

5-year results comparing mineral trioxide aggregate and adhesive resin composite for root-end sealing in apical surgery

INTRODUCTION Recent meta-analyses of the outcome of apical surgery using modern techniques including microsurgical principles and high-power magnification have yielded higher rates of healing. However, the information is mainly based on 1- to 2-year follow-up data. The present prospective study was designed to re-examine a large sample of teeth treated with apical surgery after 5 years. METHODS Patients were recalled 5 years after apical surgery, and treated teeth were classified as healed or not healed based on clinical and radiographic examination. (The latter was performed independently by 3 observers). Two different methods of root-end preparation and filling (primary study parameters) were to be compared (mineral trioxide aggregate [MTA] vs adhesive resin composite [COMP]) without randomization. RESULTS A total of 271 patients and teeth from a 1-year follow-up sample of 339 could be re-examined after 5 years (dropout rate = 20.1%). The overall rate of healed cases was 84.5% with a significant difference (P = .0003) when comparing MTA (92.5%) and COMP (76.6%). The evaluation of secondary study parameters yielded no significant difference for healing outcome when comparing subcategories (ie, sex, age, type of tooth treated, post/screw, type of surgery). CONCLUSIONS The results from this prospective nonrandomized clinical study with a 5-year follow-up of 271 teeth indicate that MTA exhibited a higher healing rate than COMP in the longitudinal prognosis of root-end sealing.

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

A specialist root herbivore reduces plant resistance and uses an induced plant volatile to aggregate in a density-dependent manner

1.Leaf-herbivore attack often triggers induced resistance in plants. However, certain specialist herbivores can also take advantage of the induced metabolic changes. In some cases, they even manipulate plant resistance, leading to a phenomenon called induced susceptibility. Compared to above-ground plant-insect interactions, little is known about the prevalence and consequences of induced responses below-ground. 2.A recent study suggested that feeding by the specialist root herbivore Diabrotica virgifera virgifera makes maize roots more susceptible to conspecifics. To better understand this phenomenon, we conducted a series of experiments to study the behavioural responses and elucidate the underlying biochemical mechanisms. 3.We found that D. virgifera benefitted from feeding on a root system in groups of intermediate size (3–9 larvae/plant in the laboratory), whereas its performance was reduced in large groups (12 larvae/plant). Interestingly, the herbivore was able to select host plants with a suitable density of conspecifics by using the induced plant volatile (E)-β-caryophyllene in a dose-dependent manner. Using a split root experiment, we show that the plant-induced susceptibility is systemic and, therefore, plant mediated. Chemical analyses on plant resource reallocation and defences upon herbivory showed that the systemic induced-susceptibility is likely to stem from a combination of (i) increased free amino acid concentrations and (ii) relaxation of defence inducibility. 4.These findings show that herbivores can use induced plant volatiles in a density-dependent manner to aggregate on a host plant and change its metabolism to their own benefit. Our study furthermore helps to explain the remarkable ecological success of D. virgifera in maize fields around the world.