Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Irrigation regime affected SOC content rather than plow layer thickness of rice paddies : A county level survey from a river basin in lower Yangtze valley, China

Acknowledgements This work was funded by Natural Science Foundation of China under grant numbers of 41071337 and 40830528 and jointly by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, China.

Land cover classification of Samoylov Island and Landsat subpixel water cover of Lena River Delta, Siberia, with links to ESRI grid files

Ignoring small-scale heterogeneities in Arctic land cover may bias estimates of water, heat and carbon fluxes in large-scale climate and ecosystem models. We investigated subpixel-scale heterogeneity in CHRIS/PROBA and Landsat-7 ETM+ satellite imagery over ice-wedge polygonal tundra in the Lena Delta of Siberia, and the associated implications for evapotranspiration (ET) estimation. Field measurements were combined with aerial and satellite data to link fine-scale (0.3 m resolution) with coarse-scale (upto 30 m resolution) land cover data. A large portion of the total wet tundra (80%) and water body area (30%) appeared in the form of patches less than 0.1 ha in size, which could not be resolved with satellite data. Wet tundra and small water bodies represented about half of the total ET in summer. Their contribution was reduced to 20% in fall, during which ET rates from dry tundra were highest instead. Inclusion of subpixel-scale water bodies increased the total water surface area of the Lena Delta from 13% to 20%. The actual land/water proportions within each composite satellite pixel was best captured with Landsat data using a statistical downscaling approach, which is recommended for reliable large-scale modelling of water, heat and carbon exchange from permafrost landscapes.

Troubled Waters Ahead: An Evaluation of Shoreline Land Use Policies for Water Quality Protection in Renfrew County, Ontario

Increases in the rate and extent of lakeshore development along inland lakes in Ontario are adversely impacting water quality. Despite growing awareness, there is a lack of knowledge about the land use policies and tools in place to protect inland lakes in rural Ontario. This research evaluated official plans for water quality protection policies for inland lakes in the County of Renfrew, Ontario to address this gap. The findings suggest that municipalities implicitly link water quality to land use planning policy and fail to incorporate innovative methods to protect water quality.

International Law and Land Rights in Africa: The shift from states’ territorial possessions to indigenous peoples’ ownership rights

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of a chapter published in Home, Robert, (ed.) Essays in African Land Law. Pretoria University Press, pp. 47-68. ISBN 9781920538002 Availiable at : http://www.pulp.up.ac.za/cat_2011_15.html

Irrigation scheduling using ICSWAB model.

The paper presents a simple method of irrigation scheduling using ICSWAB model for dry land crops. The main inputs to this approache are daily precipitation or irrigation amounts and open pan evaporation (US class 'A' pan-mesh covered). The fixed cumulative evapotranspiration procedure is better than fixed days or fixed percentage soil moisture procedures of irrigation scheduling. Fixed days procedures could be reasonably applied during nonrainy season.

Water stress thresholds for regulated deficit irrigation in pistachio trees

The response of "Kerman" pistachio trees budded on three different rootstocks (Pistacia terebinthus, Pista-cia atlantica and Pistacia integerrima) to regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) in shallow soils was studied for3 years. The trees were either fully irrigated (C treatment) or subjected to deficit irrigation during Stage IIof fruit growth with two water stress thresholds (T1 and T2). The irrigation scheduling for fully-irrigatedtrees and water-stressed trees was managed by means of midday stem water potential (?stem) measure-ments. The use of direct measurements of the water status allowed estimating accurately the irrigationrequirements for pistachio trees, with water reductions ranging from 46 to 205 mm in fully-irrigatedtrees. The combination of the ?stemuse and the RDI regime saved 43?70% in T1 and 48?73% in T2 ofwater compared to the calculated crop evapotranspiration (ETc) for fully irrigated treatment (C).Deficit irrigation during Stage II significantly reduced the vegetative growth of the trees. Yield and fruitquality were not affected by any irrigation regime, except during the first year of the study. Thus, theresults indicate that full irrigation scheduling and RDI can be achieved successfully using ?stemtool onpistachio trees growing in shallow soils. A ?stemthreshold of ?1.5 MPa during stage II (T1) was suggestedfor RDI scheduling, as it did not reduce the yield or the production value. However a ?stemthresholdof ?2.0 MPa (T2) resulted in a significant reduction and an extensive delay in the recovery of stomatalconductance (gl),with negative effects on long-term pistachio production.P. integerrima showed a weaker capacity of adaptation to the study conditions compared to P. atlanticaand P. terebinthus, having a tendency to get more stressed and to produce a lower quality crop.

Assessing canopy temperature patterns in two grapevine varieties subjected to deficit irrigation: a tool to optimize water management ?

A better understanding of grapevine responses to drought and high air temperatures can help to optimize vineyard management to improve water use efficiency, yield and berry quality. Faster and robust field phenotyping tools are needed in modern precision viticulture, in particular in dry and hot regions such as the Mediterranean. Canopy temperature (Tc) is commonly used to monitor water stress in plants/crops and to characterize stomatal physiology in different woody species including Vitis vinifera. Thermography permits remote determination of leaf surface or canopy temperature in the field and also to assess the range and spatial distribution of temperature from different parts of the canopies. Our hypothesis is that grapevine genotypes may show different Tc patterns along the day due to different stomatal behaviour and heat dissipation strategies. We have monitored the diurnal and seasonal course of Tc in two grapevine genotypes, Aragonez (syn. Tempranillo) and Touriga Nacional subjected to deficit irrigation under typical Mediterranean climate conditions. Temperature measurements were complemented by determination of the diurnal course of leaf water potential (ψleaf) and leaf gas exchange. Measurements were done in two seasons (2013 and 2014) at different phenological stages: i) mid-June (green berry stage), ii) mid-July (veraison), iii) early August (early ripening) and iv) before harvest (late ripening). Correlations between Tc and minimal stomatal conductance will be presented for the two genotypes along the day. Results are discussed over the use of thermal imagery to derive information on genotype physiology in response to changing environmental conditions and to mild water stress induced by deficit irrigation. Strategies to optimize the use of thermal imaging in field conditions are also proposed

Climate change and irrigation water requirement at Jaguaribe river basin, semi-arid northeast of Brazil.

Summary: Climate change has a potential to impact rainfall, temperature and air humidity, which have relation to plant evapotranspiration and crop water requirement. The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on future scenarios derived from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), using boundary conditions of the HadCM3 submitted to a dynamic downscaling nested to the Hadley Centre regional circulation model HadRM3P. Monthly time series for average temperature and rainfall were generated for 1961-90 (baseline) and the future (2040). The reference evapotranspiration was estimated using monthly average temperature. Projected climate change impact on irrigation water demand demonstrated to be a result of evapotranspiration and rainfall trend. Impacts were mapped over the target region by using geostatistical methods. An increase of the average crop water needs was estimated to be 18.7% and 22.2% higher for 2040 A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Objective ? To analyze the climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements, using downscaling techniques of a climate change model, at the river basin scale. Method: The study area was delimited between 4º39?30? and 5º40?00? South and 37º35?30? and 38º27?00? West. The crop pattern in the target area was characterized, regarding type of irrigated crops, respective areas and cropping schedules, as well as the area and type of irrigation systems adopted. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system (Jones et al., 2004) was used for generating climate predictions for the target area, using the boundary conditions of the Hadley Centre model HadCM3 (Johns et al., 2003). The considered time scale of interest for climate change impacts evaluation was the year of 2040, representing the period of 2025 to 2055. The output data from the climate model was interpolated, considering latitude/longitude, by applying ordinary kriging tools available at a Geographic Information System, in order to produce thematic maps.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Analysis of Land Use Change as a Method of Predicting Water Demands in an Urbanizing Environment: Redland, Miami-Dade County, Florida

The fluctuation in water demand in the Redland community of Miami-Dade County was examined using land use data from 2001 and 2011 and water estimation techniques provided by local and state agencies. The data was converted to 30 m mosaicked raster grids that indicated land use change, and associated water demand measured in gallons per day per acre. The results indicate that, first, despite an increase in population, water demand decreased overall in Redland from 2001 to 2011. Second, conversion of agricultural lands to residential lands actually caused a decrease in water demand in most cases while acquisition of farmland by public agencies also caused a sharp decline. Third, conversion of row crops and groves to nurseries was substantial and resulted in a significant increase in water demand in all such areas converted. Finally, estimating water demand based on land use, rather than population, is a more accurate approach.

Water Delivery Quality and Automatic Control Modes in Irrigation Canals. A Case Study.

Regarding canal management modernization, water savings and water delivery quality, the study presents two automatic canal control approaches of the PI (Proportional and Integral) type: the distant and the local downstream control modes. The two PI controllers are defined, tuned and tested using an hydraulic unsteady flow simulation model, particularly suitable for canal control studies. The PI control parameters are tuned using optimization tools. The simulations are done for a Portuguese prototype canal and the PI controllers are analyzed and compared considering a demand-oriented-canal operation. The paper presents and analyzes the two control modes answers for five different offtake types – gate controlled weir, gate controlled orifice, weir with or without adjustable height and automatic flow adjustable offtake. The simulation results are compared using water volumes performance indicators (considering the demanded, supplied and the effectives water volumes) and a time indicator, defined taking into account the time during which the demand discharges are effective discharges. Regarding water savings, the simulation results for the five offtake types prove that the local downstream control gives the best results (no water operational losses) and that the distant downstream control presents worse results in connection with the automatic flow adjustable offtakes. Considering the water volumes and time performance indicators, the best results are obtained for the automatic flow adjustable offtakes and the worse for the gate controlled orifices, followed by the weir with adjustable height.

Leaf water potential and sap flow as indicators of water stress in Crimson ‘seedless’ grapevines under different irrigation strategies

Vitis vinifera L. cv. Crimson Seedless is a late season red table grape developed in 1989, with a high market value and increasingly cultivated under protected environments to extend the availability of seedless table grapes into the late fall. The purpose of this work was to evaluate leaf water potential and sap flow as indicators of water stress in Crimson Seedless vines under standard and reduced irrigation strategy, consisting of 70 % of the standard irrigation depth. Additionally, two sub-treatments were applied, consisting of normal irrigation throughout the growing season and a short irrigation induced stress period between veraison and harvest. Leaf water potential measurements coherently signaled crop-available water variations caused by different irrigation treatments, suggesting that this plant-based method can be reliably used to identify water-stress conditions. The use of sap flow density data to establish a ratio based on a reference ‘well irrigated vine’ and less irrigated vines can potentially be used to signal differences in the transpiration rates, which may be suitable for improving irrigation management strategies while preventing undesirable levels of water stress. Although all four irrigation strategies resulted in the production of quality table grapes, significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) were found in both berry weight and sugar content between the standard irrigation and reduced irrigation treatments. Reduced irrigation increased slightly the average berry size as well as sugar content and technical maturity index. The 2-week irrigation stress period had a negative effect on these parameters.

Leaf water potential and sap flow as indicators of water stress in Crimson 'seedless' grapevines under different irrigation strategies

Abstract Vitis vinifera L. cv. Crimson Seedless is a late season red table grape developed in 1989, with a high market value and increasingly cultivated under protected environments to extend the availability of seedless table grapes into the late fall. The purpose of this work was to evaluate leaf water potential and sap flow as indicators of water stress in Crimson Seedless vines under standard and reduced irrigation strategy, consisting of 70 % of the standard irrigation depth. Additionally, two sub-treatments were applied, consisting of normal irrigation throughout the growing season and a short irrigation induced stress period between veraison and harvest. Leaf water potential measurements coherently signaled crop-available water variations caused by different irrigation treatments, suggesting that this plant-based method can be reliably used to identify water-stress conditions. The use of sap flow density data to establish a ratio based on a reference ‘well irrigated vine’ and less irrigated vines can potentially be used to signal differences in the transpiration rates, which may be suitable for improving irrigation management strategies while preventing undesirable levels of water stress. Although all four irrigation strategies resulted in the production of quality table grapes, significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) were found in both berry weight and sugar content between the standard irrigation and reduced irrigation treatments. Reduced irrigation increased slightly the average berry size as well as sugar content and technical maturity index. The 2-week irrigation stress period had a negative effect on these parameters.