Review ["Telling the Evolutionary Time : Molecular Clocks and the Fossil Record" edited by Philip C. J. Donoghue and M. Paul Smith]

Determining the temporal scale of biological evolution has traditionally been the preserve of paleontology, with the timing of species originations and major diversifications all being read from the fossil record. However, the ages of the earliest (correctly identified) records will underestimate actual origins due to the incomplete nature of the fossil record and the necessity for lineages to have evolved sufficiently divergent morphologies in order to be distinguished. The possibility of inferring divergence times more accurately has been promoted by the idea that the accumulation of genetic change between modern lineages can be used as a molecular clock (Zuckerkandl and Pauling, 1965). In practice, though, molecular dates have often been so old as to be incongruent even with liberal readings of the fossil record. Prominent examples include inferred diversifications of metazoan phyla hundreds of millions of years before their Cambrian fossil record appearances (e.g., Nei et al., 2001) and a basal split between modern birds (Neoaves) that is almost double the age of their earliest recognizable fossils (e.g., Cooper and Penny, 1997).

Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and systematic overestimation of recent divergence times

Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (<1–2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222–705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70–156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47–110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.

Evidence for time dependency of molecular rate estimates

Long-term changes in the genetic composition of a population occur by the fixation of new mutations, a process known as substitution. The rate at which mutations arise in a population and the rate at which they are fixed are expected to be equal under neutral conditions (Kimura, 1968). Between the appearance of a new mutation and its eventual fate of fixation or loss, there will be a period in which it exists as a transient polymorphism in the population (Kimura and Ohta, 1971). If the majority of mutations are deleterious (and nonlethal), the fixation probabilities of these transient polymorphisms are reduced and the mutation rate will exceed the substitution rate (Kimura, 1983). Consequently, different apparent rates may be observed on different time scales of the molecular evolutionary process (Penny, 2005; Penny and Holmes, 2001). The substitution rate of the mitochondrial protein-coding genes of birds and mammals has been traditionally recognized to be about 0.01 substitutions/site/million years (Myr) (Brown et al., 1979; Ho, 2007; Irwin et al., 1991; Shields and Wilson, 1987), with the noncoding D-loop evolving several times more quickly (e.g., Pesole et al., 1992; Quinn, 1992). Over the past decade, there has been mounting evidence that instantaneous mutation rates substantially exceed substitution rates, in a range of organisms (e.g., Denver et al., 2000; Howell et al., 2003; Lambert et al., 2002; Mao et al., 2006; Mumm et al., 1997; Parsons et al., 1997; Santos et al., 2005). The immediate reaction to the first of these findings was that the polymorphisms generated by the elevated mutation rate are short-lived, perhaps extending back only a few hundred years (Gibbons, 1998; Macaulay et al., 1997). That is, purifying selection was thought to remove these polymorphisms very rapidly.

Computationally efficient methods for solving time-variable-order time-space fractional reaction-diffusion equation

Fractional differential equations are becoming more widely accepted as a powerful tool in modelling anomalous diffusion, which is exhibited by various materials and processes. Recently, researchers have suggested that rather than using constant order fractional operators, some processes are more accurately modelled using fractional orders that vary with time and/or space. In this paper we develop computationally efficient techniques for solving time-variable-order time-space fractional reaction-diffusion equations (tsfrde) using the finite difference scheme. We adopt the Coimbra variable order time fractional operator and variable order fractional Laplacian operator in space where both orders are functions of time. Because the fractional operator is nonlocal, it is challenging to efficiently deal with its long range dependence when using classical numerical techniques to solve such equations. The novelty of our method is that the numerical solution of the time-variable-order tsfrde is written in terms of a matrix function vector product at each time step. This product is approximated efficiently by the Lanczos method, which is a powerful iterative technique for approximating the action of a matrix function by projecting onto a Krylov subspace. Furthermore an adaptive preconditioner is constructed that dramatically reduces the size of the required Krylov subspaces and hence the overall computational cost. Numerical examples, including the variable-order fractional Fisher equation, are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the approach.

Time-varying bispectral analysis of auditory evoked multi-channel scalp EEG

Time-varying bispectra, computed using a classical sliding window short-time Fourier approach, are analyzed for scalp EEG potentials evoked by an auditory stimulus and new observations are presented. A single, short duration tone is presented from the left or the right, direction unknown to the test subject. The subject responds by moving the eyes to the direction of the sound. EEG epochs sampled at 200 Hz for repeated trials are processed between -70 ms and +1200 ms with reference to the stimulus. It is observed that for an ensemble of correctly recognized cases, the best matching timevarying bispectra at (8 Hz, 8Hz) are for PZ-FZ channels and this is also largely the case for grand averages but not for power spectra at 8 Hz. Out of 11 subjects, the only exception for time-varying bispectral match was a subject with family history of Alzheimer’s disease and the difference was in bicoherence, not biphase.

Real-time detection of concealed chemical hazards under ambient light conditions using Raman spectroscopy

Current concerns regarding terrorism and international crime highlight the need for new techniques for detecting unknown and hazardous substances. A novel Raman spectroscopy-based technique, spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS), was recently devised for non-invasively probing the contents of diffusely scattering and opaque containers. Here, we demonstrate a modified portable SORS sensor for detecting concealed substances in-field under different background lighting conditions. Samples including explosive precursors, drugs and an organophosphate insecticide (chemical warfare agent surrogate) were concealed inside diffusely scattering packaging including plastic, paper and cloth. Measurements were carried out under incandescent and fluorescent light as well as under daylight to assess the suitability of the probe for different real-life conditions. In each case, it was possible to identify the substances against their reference Raman spectra in less than one minute. The developed sensor has potential for rapid detection of concealed hazardous substances in airports, mail distribution centers and customs checkpoints.

Exposure to hot and cold temperatures and ambulance attendances in Brisbane, Australia: A time series study

ABSTRACT Objectives: To investigate the effect of hot and cold temperatures on ambulance attendances. Design: An ecological time series study. Setting and participants: The study was conducted in Brisbane, Australia. We collected information on 783 935 daily ambulance attendances, along with data of associated meteorological variables and air pollutants, for the period of 2000–2007. Outcome measures: The total number of ambulance attendances was examined, along with those related to cardiovascular, respiratory and other non-traumatic conditions. Generalised additive models were used to assess the relationship between daily mean temperature and the number of ambulance attendances. Results: There were statistically significant relationships between mean temperature and ambulance attendances for all categories. Acute heat effects were found with a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.86%, 1.48%) increase in total attendances for 1 °C increase above threshold (0–1 days lag). Cold effects were delayed and longer lasting with a 1.30% (0.87%, 1.73%) increase in total attendances for a 1 °C decrease below the threshold (2–15 days lag). Harvesting was observed following initial acute periods of heat effects, but not for cold effects. Conclusions: This study shows that both hot and cold temperatures led to increases in ambulance attendances for different medical conditions. Our findings support the notion that ambulance attendance records are a valid and timely source of data for use in the development of local weather/health early warning systems.

Repeat speeding offenders : time to stop thinking of them as just ‘unlucky normal’ drivers

- Speeding and crash involvement in Australia - Speeding recidivist research in Queensland - Challenges from an Australian perspective - Defining speeding - Community attitudes to speeding - Auditor-General reviews of speed camera programs - Implications for future speed management

Identifying customer behaviour and dwell time using soft biometrics

In a commercial environment, it is advantageous to know how long it takes customers to move between different regions, how long they spend in each region, and where they are likely to go as they move from one location to another. Presently, these measures can only be determined manually, or through the use of hardware tags (i.e. RFID). Soft biometrics are characteristics that can be used to describe, but not uniquely identify an individual. They include traits such as height, weight, gender, hair, skin and clothing colour. Unlike traditional biometrics, soft biometrics can be acquired by surveillance cameras at range without any user cooperation. While these traits cannot provide robust authentication, they can be used to provide identification at long range, and aid in object tracking and detection in disjoint camera networks. In this chapter we propose using colour, height and luggage soft biometrics to determine operational statistics relating to how people move through a space. A novel average soft biometric is used to locate people who look distinct, and these people are then detected at various locations within a disjoint camera network to gradually obtain operational statistics

A stranger's touch : effects of accidental interpersonal touch on consumer evaluations and shopping time

This article examines an unexplored area of consumer research—the effect of accidental interpersonal touch (AIT) from a stranger on consumer evaluations and shopping times. The research presents a field experiment in a retail setting. This study shows that men and women who have been touched by another consumer when examining products report more negative brand evaluations, negative product beliefs, less willingness to pay, and spend less time in-store than their control (no-touch) counterparts. Our findings indicate that the AIT effect is especially negative for touch from a male stranger for both men (same-sex touch) and women (opposite-sex touch). Directions are provided for future study that highlight potential moderators and process explanations underlying the AIT effect.

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

Alternating direction implicit numerical method for the space and time fractional Bloch-Torrey equation in 3-D

Recently, some authors have considered a new diffusion model–space and time fractional Bloch-Torrey equation (ST-FBTE). Magin et al. (2008) have derived analytical solutions with fractional order dynamics in space (i.e., _ = 1, β an arbitrary real number, 1 < β ≤ 2) and time (i.e., 0 < α < 1, and β = 2), respectively. Yu et al. (2011) have derived an analytical solution and an effective implicit numerical method for solving ST-FBTEs, and also discussed the stability and convergence of the implicit numerical method. However, due to the computational overheads necessary to perform the simulations for nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) in three dimensions, they present a study based on a two-dimensional example to confirm their theoretical analysis. Alternating direction implicit (ADI) schemes have been proposed for the numerical simulations of classic differential equations. The ADI schemes will reduce a multidimensional problem to a series of independent one-dimensional problems and are thus computationally efficient. In this paper, we consider the numerical solution of a ST-FBTE on a finite domain. The time and space derivatives in the ST-FBTE are replaced by the Caputo and the sequential Riesz fractional derivatives, respectively. A fractional alternating direction implicit scheme (FADIS) for the ST-FBTE in 3-D is proposed. Stability and convergence properties of the FADIS are discussed. Finally, some numerical results for ST-FBTE are given.

A new implicit numerical method for the space and time fractional Bloch-Torrey equation

In recent years, it has been found that many phenomena in engineering, physics, chemistry and other sciences can be described very successfully by models using mathematical tools from fractional calculus. Recently, noted a new space and time fractional Bloch-Torrey equation (ST-FBTE) has been proposed (see Magin et al. (2008)), and successfully applied to analyse diffusion images of human brain tissues to provide new insights for further investigations of tissue structures. In this paper, we consider the ST-FBTE on a finite domain. The time and space derivatives in the ST-FBTE are replaced by the Caputo and the sequential Riesz fractional derivatives, respectively. Firstly, we propose a new effective implicit numerical method (INM) for the STFBTE whereby we discretize the Riesz fractional derivative using a fractional centered difference. Secondly, we prove that the implicit numerical method for the ST-FBTE is unconditionally stable and convergent, and the order of convergence of the implicit numerical method is ( T2 - α + h2 x + h2 y + h2 z ). Finally, some numerical results are presented to support our theoretical analysis.

Numerical methods for solving the multi-term time-fractional wave-diffusion equations

In this paper, the multi-term time-fractional wave diffusion equations are considered. The multiterm time fractional derivatives are defined in the Caputo sense, whose orders belong to the intervals [0,1], [1,2), [0,2), [0,3), [2,3) and [2,4), respectively. Some computationally effective numerical methods are proposed for simulating the multi-term time-fractional wave-diffusion equations. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis. These methods and techniques can also be extended to other kinds of the multi-term fractional time-space models with fractional Laplacian.