Predicting HCl concentrations in fire enclosures using an HCl decay model coupled to a CFD-based fire field model

The amount of atmospheric hydrogen chloride (HCl) within fire enclosures produced from the combustion of chloride-based materials tends to decay as the fire effluent is transported through the enclosure due to mixing with fresh air and absorption by solids. This paper describes an HCl decay model, typically used in zone models, which has been modified and applied to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based fire field model. While the modified model still makes use of some empirical formulations to represent the deposition mechanisms, these have been reduced from the original three to two through the use of the CFD framework. Furthermore, the effect of HCl flow to the wall surfaces on the time to reach equilibrium between HCl in the boundary layer and on wall surfaces is addressed by the modified model. Simulation results using the modified HCl decay model are compared with data from three experiments. The model is found to be able to reproduce the experimental trends and the predicted HCl levels are in good agreement with measured values

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

Coupled fire/evacuation analysis of the Station Nightclub fire

In this paper, coupled fire and evacuation simulation tools are used to simulate the Station Nightclub fire. This study differs from the analysis conducted by NIST in three key areas; (1)an enhanced flame spread model and (2)a toxicity generation model are used, (3)the evacuation is coupled to the fire simulation. Predicted early burning locations in the full-scale fire simulation are in line with photographic evidence and the predicted onset of flashover is similar to that produced by NIST. However, it is suggested that both predictions of the flashover time are approximately 15 sec earlier than actually occurred. Three evacuation scenarios are then considered, two of which are coupled with the fire simulation. The coupled fire and evacuation simulation suggests that 180 fatalities result from a building population of 460. With a 15 sec delay in the fire timeline, the evacuation simulation produces 84 fatalities which are in good agreement with actual number of fatalities. An important observation resulting from this work is that traditional fire engineering ASET/RSET calculations which do not couple the fire and evacuation simulations have the potential to be considerably over optimistic in terms of the level of safety achieved by building designs.

The use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model for selecting the fire origin room

Over the last three decades, the fire safety codes have been changing from a prescriptive approach to a performance-based one. Some countries, such as the USA, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia and the UK, are in an advanced stage of development and implementation of the performance-based codes. However, there are some difficulties in this process. Most of them are due to the uncertainties associated with fire design. For instance, one of the questions that need to be answered is how to select the most probable fire origin room (FOR)? On the other hand, to know where the FOR is located is also an important aspect in terms of forensic issues. Given that, to address this question is an important step for the establishment of fire designs (i.e., pre-fire phases) and also for fire investigations (i.e., post-fire phases). This paper proposes a methodology for selecting the FOR through the use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model: the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The proposed method is then applied to a hypothetical study case. The results are presented and discussed in this paper.

Peat, pine stumps and people: interactions behind climate, vegetation change and human activity in wetland archaeology at Loch Farlary, Northern Scotland

First paragraph: In 1993, a peat-cutter, Bruce Field, working on the blanket peat bank he rented from the Sutherland Estate by Loch Farlary, above Golspie in Sutherland (fig 1), reported to Scottish Natural Heritage and Historic Scotland several pieces of pine wood bearing axe marks. Their depth in the peat suggested the cut marks to be prehistoric. This paper summarizes the work undertaken to understand the age and archaeological significance of this find (see also Tipping et al 2001 in press). The pine trees were initially thought to be part of a population that flourished briefly across northern Scotland in the middle of the Holocene period from c 4800 cal BP (Huntley, Daniell & Allen 1997). The subsequent collapse across northernmost Scotland of this population, the pine decline, at around 4200-4000 cal BP is unexplained: climate change has been widely assumed (Dubois & Ferguson 1985; Bridge, Haggart & Lowe 1990; Gear & Huntley 1991) but anthropogenic activity has not been disproved (Birks 1975; Bennett 1995). It was hypothesized that the Farlary find would allow for the first time the direct link between human woodland clearance and the Early Bronze Age pine decline.

Diversity of functional groups in the vegetation sandy seashore of the Grande, Anclitas and Caguamas Cays (Jardines de la Reina Archipelago, Cuba)

Sandy shores are known to be extreme ecosystems where the vegetation has evolved many morphological and physiological adaptations for its survival. With the aim of identify possible relationships between the vegetation´s functional diversity with abiotic factors and its corresponding quantification, we collected data on the abundance and richness of the sandy coast vegetation complex in Grande, Anclitas and Caguamas keys. Its flora is largely characterized by the dominance of hemicryptophytes and chamaephytes plants with nanophyllous leaves and displaying dispersal syndromes such as zoochory and anemochory. However, the functional groups´ richness, in the present study, varies from one key to another. Functional diversity is similar between the wet and dry seasons, and its spatial variation is influenced by the interplay of the set of abiotic factors herein studied.

Evaluating the SEVIRI Fire Thermal Anomaly Detection Algorithm across the Central African Republic Using the MODIS Active Fire Product

Satellite-based remote sensing of active fires is the only practical way to consistently and continuously monitor diurnal fluctuations in biomass burning from regional, to continental, to global scales. Failure to understand, quantify, and communicate the performance of an active fire detection algorithm, however, can lead to improper interpretations of the spatiotemporal distribution of biomass burning, and flawed estimates of fuel consumption and trace gas and aerosol emissions. This work evaluates the performance of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) Fire Thermal Anomaly (FTA) detection algorithm using seven months of active fire pixels detected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) across the Central African Republic (CAR). Results indicate that the omission rate of the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm relative to MODIS varies spatially across the CAR, ranging from 25% in the south to 74% in the east. In the absence of confounding artifacts such as sunglint, uncertainties in the background thermal characterization, and cloud cover, the regional variation in SEVIRI's omission rate can be attributed to a coupling between SEVIRI's low spatial resolution detection bias (i.e., the inability to detect fires below a certain size and intensity) and a strong geographic gradient in active fire characteristics across the CAR. SEVIRI's commission rate relative to MODIS increases from 9% when evaluated near MODIS nadir to 53% near the MODIS scene edges, indicating that SEVIRI errors of commission at the MODIS scene edges may not be false alarms but rather true fires that MODIS failed to detect as a result of larger pixel sizes at extreme MODIS scan angles. Results from this work are expected to facilitate (i) future improvements to the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm; (ii) the assimilation of the SEVIRI and MODIS active fire products; and (iii) the potential inclusion of SEVIRI into a network of geostationary sensors designed to achieve global diurnal active fire monitoring.

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Place et rôle de Juniperus thurifera dans les structures de vegetation des Alpes du Sud

Les formations a genévrier thurifère des Alpes françcaises du sud, présentent un intérêt biogeographique et historique de première importance. Les auteurs étudient les structures de végétation que le genevrier organise dans les étages supraméditerranéen et montagnards.

Nomenclature and syntaxonomic notes on some high-rank syntaxa of the European grassland vegetation

We present descriptions of a new order (Ranunculo cortusifolii-Geranietalia reuteri and of a new alliance (Stachyo lusitanicae-Cheirolophion sempervirentis) for the herbaceous fringe communities of Macaronesia and of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, respectively. A new alliance, the Polygalo mediterraneae-Bromion erecti (mesophilous post-cultural grasslands), was introduced for the Peninsular Italy. We further validate and typify the Armerietalia rumelicae (perennial grasslands supported by nutrient-poor on siliceous bedrocks at altitudes characterized by the submediterranean climate of central-southern Balkan Peninsula), the Securigero-Dasypyrion villosae (lawn and fallow-land tall-grass annual vegetation of Italy), and the Cirsio vallis-demoni-Nardion (acidophilous grasslands on siliceous substrates of the Southern Italy). Nomenclatural issues (validity, legitimacy, synonymy, formal corrections) have been discussed and clarified for the following names: Brachypodio-Brometalia, Bromo pannonici-Festucion csikhegyensis, Corynephoro-Plantaginion radicatae, Heleochloion, Hieracio-Plantaginion radicatae, Nardetea strictae, Nardetalia strictae, Nardo-Callunetea, Nardo-Galion saxatilis, Oligo-Bromion, Paspalo-Heleochloetalia, Plantagini-Corynephorion and Scorzoneret alia villosae. 

Validations and descriptions of European syntaxa of vegetation dominated by lichens, bryophytes and algae

Fourty-two high-rank syntaxa and seven associations of the thallophyte system of syntaxa are either described as new or validated in this paper. Among those, there are the following nine classes: Aspicilietea candidae, Caulerpetea racemosae, Desmococcetea olivacei, Entophysalidetea deustae, Gloeocapsetea sanguineae, Mesotaenietea berggrenii, Naviculetea gregariae, Porpidietea zeoroidis, Roccelletea phycopsis. Eleven orders and ten alliances as well as three associations are described or validated: the Aspicilietalia verruculosae (incl. Aspicilion mashiginensis and Teloschistion contortuplicati), the Caulerpetalia racemosae (incl. Caulerpion racemosae), the Desmococcetalia olivacei (incl. Desmococcion olivacei), the Dirinetalia massiliensis, the Fucetalia vesiculosi (incl. Ascophyllion nodosi), the Gloeocapsetalia sanguineae, the Lecideetalia confluescentis (incl. Lecideion confluescentis), the Mesotaenietalia berggrenii (incl. Mesotaenion berggrenii, Mesotaenietum berggrenii and Chloromonadetum nivalis), the Naviculetalia gregariae (incl. Oscillatorion limosae and Oscillatorietum limosae), the Porpidietalia zeoroidis (incl. Porpidion zeoroidis), and the Roccelletalia fuciformis (incl. Paralecanographion grumulosae). Further, five orders, seven alliances and four associations, classified in known classes, were described as well. These include: the Bacidinetalia phacodis, the Agonimion octosporae and the Dendrographetalia decolorantis (all in the Arthonio radiatae-Lecidelletea elaeochromae), the Staurothelion solventis (in the Aspicilietea lacustris), the Pediastro duplicis-Scenedesmion quadricaudae and the Pediastro duplicis-Scenedesmetum quadricaudae (both in the Asterionelletea formosae), the Peccanion coralloidis and the Peltuletalia euplocae (both in the Collematetea cristati), the Laminarion hyperboreae, the Saccorhizo polyschidi-Laminarietum and the Alario esculenti-Himanthalietum elongatae (all in the Cystoseiretea crinitae), the Delesserietalia sanguinei, the Delesserion sanguinei and the Delesserietum sanguineae (all in the Lithophylletea soluti), as well as the the Rinodino confragosae-Rusavskietalia elegantis and the Rhizocarpo geographici-Rusavskion elegantis (both in the Rhizocarpetea geographici).