Development and Testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A Composite Indicator to Measure Social Vulnerability in the Jamaican Elderly Population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Extending the Theory of Planned Behavior in the Exercise Domain: A Study of Community College Students in an Urban Multicultural Setting

The purpose of this study was to assess the intention to exercise among ethnically and racially diverse community college students using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). In addition to identifying the variables associated with motivation or intention of college students to engage in physical activity, this study tested the model of the Theory of Planned Behavior, asking: Does the TPB model explain intention to exercise among a racially/ethnically diverse group of college students? The relevant variables were the TPB constructs (behavioral beliefs, normative beliefs, and control beliefs), which combined to form a measure of intention to exercise. Structural Equation Modeling was used to test the predictive power of the TPB constructs for predicting intention to exercise. Following procedures described by Ajzen (2002), the researcher developed a questionnaire encompassing the external variables of student demographics (age, gender, work status, student status, socio-economic status, access to exercise facilities, and past behavior), major constructs of the TPB, and two questions from the Godin Leisure Time Questionnaire (GLTQ; Godin & Shephard, 1985). Participants were students (N = 255) who enrolled in an on-campus wellness course at an urban community college. The demographic profile of the sample revealed a racially/ethnically diverse study population. The original model that was used to reflect the TPB as developed by Ajzen was not supported by the data analyzed using SEM; however, a revised model that the researcher thought was theoretically a more accurate reflection of the causal relations between the TPB constructs was supported. The GLTQ questions were problematic for some students; those data could not be used in the modeling efforts. The GLTQ measure, however, revealed a significant correlation with intention to exercise (r = .27, p = .001). Post-hoc comparisons revealed significant differences in normative beliefs and attitude toward exercising behavior between Black students and Hispanic students. Compared to Black students, Hispanic students were more likely to (a) perceive “friends” as approving of them being physically active and (b) rate being physically active for 30 minutes per day as “beneficial”. No statistically significant difference was found among groups on overall intention to exercise.

Juniperus navicularis - a study of Portuguese population structure and fitness

Juniperus navicularis Gand. is a dioecious endemic conifer that constitutes the understory of seaside pine forests in Portugal, areas currently threatened by increasing urban expansion. The aim of this study is to assess the conservation status of previously known populations of this species located on its core area of distribution. The study was performed in south-west coast of Portugal. Three populations varying in size and pine density were analyzed. Number of individuals, population density, spatial distribution and individual characteristics of junipers were estimated. Female cone, seed characteristics and seed viability were also evaluated. Results suggest that J. navicularis populations are vulnerable because seminal recruitment is scarce, what may lead to a reduction of genetic variability due solely to vegetative propagation. This vulnerability seems to be strongly determined by climatic constraints toward increasing aridity. Ratio between male and female shrubs did not differ from 1:1 in any population. Deviations from 1:1 between mature and non-mature plants were found in all populations, denoting population ageing. Very low seed viability was observed. A major part of described Juniperus navicularis populations have disappeared through direct habitat loss to urban development, loss of fitness in drier and warmer locations and low seed viability. This study is the first to address J. navicularis conservation, and represents a valuable first step toward this species preservation. 

Return Migration in the Ecuadorian and Bolivian population: motivations, strategies and discourses

This article analyses the motivations for return migration among the Ecuadorians and Bolivians who, after living in Spain, returned to their countries of origin during the economic crisis that started in 2008. From the analysis of 22 interviews in-depth which took place in Ecuador and 38 in Bolivia to women, men and young people from migrant families, this decision-making process is shown to be embedded into a gendered dynamics of relationships. Particular detail is given to affective and economic elements that had an influence on the decision to return, as well as to the strategies deployed to project their readjustment back in origin. Males and females occupy differential positions within the family, work and social circle, their expectations being built in a gendered manner. Despite the fact migration has brought women greater economic power within the family group, their reintegration upon return redefines their role as main managers in the household and the dynamics that allow their social reproduction. Men, for their part, aspire to refresh their role as providers in spite of their frail labour position upon return. Social mobility for females is passed on through generations by a strong investment on education for their daughters and sons, while for males this mobility revolves around setting up family businesses and around their demonstrative abilities.

VISSIM Calibration for Urban Freeways, 2015

In urban areas, interchange spacing and the adequacy of design for weaving, merge, and diverge areas can significantly influence available capacity. Traffic microsimulation tools allow detailed analyses of these critical areas in complex locations that often yield results that differ from the generalized approach of the Highway Capacity Manual. In order to obtain valid results, various inputs should be calibrated to local conditions. This project investigated basic calibration factors for the simulation of traffic conditions within an urban freeway merge/diverge environment. By collecting and analyzing urban freeway traffic data from multiple sources, specific Iowa-based calibration factors for use in VISSIM were developed. In particular, a repeatable methodology for collecting standstill distance and headway/time gap data on urban freeways was applied to locations throughout the state of Iowa. This collection process relies on the manual processing of video for standstill distances and individual vehicle data from radar detectors to measure the headways/time gaps. By comparing the data collected from different locations, it was found that standstill distances vary by location and lead-follow vehicle types. Headways and time gaps were found to be consistent within the same driver population and across different driver populations when the conditions were similar. Both standstill distance and headway/time gap were found to follow fairly dispersed and skewed distributions. Therefore, it is recommended that microsimulation models be modified to include the option for standstill distance and headway/time gap to follow distributions as well as be set separately for different vehicle classes. In addition, for the driving behavior parameters that cannot be easily collected, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of these parameters on the capacity of the facility. The sensitivity analysis results can be used as a reference to manually adjust parameters to match the simulation results to the observed traffic conditions. A well-calibrated microsimulation model can enable a higher level of fidelity in modeling traffic behavior and serve to improve decision making in balancing need with investment.

Consumerism in urban Russia in the 1880s and 90s: Exploring conceptions of time, space, and modernity through bicycle and watch advertisements

This paper discusses the urban consumer culture in Moscow and Petersburg during the 1880s and 1890s and uses the consumption of bicycles and watches as a lens through which to explore changing perceptions of time and space within the experience of modernity at the end of the nineteenth century. Specifically, I argue that the way in which consumers and merchants constructed a dialogue of meaning around particular objects; the way in which objects are consumed by a culture gives insight into the values, morals, and tenure of that culture. The paper preferences newspaper ads and photographs as the mouthpieces of merchants and consumers respectively as they constructed a dialogue in the language of consumerism, and explores the ways in which both parties sought to assign meaning to objects during the experience of modernity. I am particularly interested in the way consumers perform elements of cultural modernity in photographs and how these instances of performance relate to their negotiation of modernity. The paper takes as its focus large section of the urban Russian population, much of whom can traditionally be called “middle class” but whose diversity has led me to the adoption of the term “consumer community,” and whose makeup is described in detail. The paper contributes to the continuing scholarly discourse on the makeup of the middle class in Russia and the social boundaries of late tsarist society. It speaks to the the developing sensibilities and values of a generation struggling to define itself in a rapidly changing world, to the ways in which conceptualizations of public and private space, as well as feminine and masculine space were redefined, and to the developing visual culture of the Russian consumer society, largely predicated on the display of objects to signify socially desirable traits. Whereas other explorations of consumer culture and advertisements have portrayed the relationship between merchants and consumers as a one-sided monologue in which merchants convince consumers that certain objects have cultural value, I emphasis the dialogue between merchants and consumers, and their mutual negotiation of cultural meaning through objects.

Economic Development of Urban Areas

In this dissertation I study the development of urban areas. At the aggregate level I investigate how they may be affected by climate change policies and by being designated the seat of governmental power. At the household level I study with coauthors how microfinance could improve the health of urban residents. In Chapter 1, I investigate how local employment may be affected by electricity price increases, which is a likely consequence of climate change policies. I outline how previous studies that find large, negative effects may be biased. To overcome these biases I develop a novel estimation strategy that blends border-pair regressions with the synthetic control methodology. I show the conditions for consistent estimation. Using this estimator, I find no effect of contemporaneous price changes on employment. Consistent with the longer time-frame for manufacturing decisions, I do find evidence for negative effects from perceived permanent price shocks. These estimates are much smaller than previous research has found. National capital cities are often substantially larger than other cities in their countries. In Chapter 2, I investigate whether there is a causal effect from being a capital by studying the 1960 relocation of the Brazilian capital from Rio de Janeiro to Brasília. Using a synthetic controls strategy I find that losing the capital had no significant effects on Rio de Janeiro in terms of population, employment, or gross domestic product (GDP). I find that Brasília experienced large and significant increases in population, employment, and GDP. I find evidence of large spillovers from the public to the private sector. Chapter 3 investigates how microfinance could increase the uptake of costly health goods. We study the effect of time payments (micro-loans or micro-savings) on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a water filter among households in the slums of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We find that time payments significantly increase WTP: compared to a lump-sum up-front purchase, median WTP increases 83% with a six-month loan and 115% with a 12-month loan. We find that households are quite patient with respect to consumption of health inputs. We find evidence for the presence of credit and savings constraints.

EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT EVENTS AND CHRONIC RESPIRATORY DISEASES AMONG A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

Previous studies have shown that extreme weather events are on the rise in response to our changing climate. Such events are projected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. A consistent exposure metric for measuring these extreme events as well as information regarding how these events lead to ill health are needed to inform meaningful adaptation strategies that are specific to the needs of local communities. Using federal meteorological data corresponding to 17 years (1997-2013) of the National Health Interview Survey, this research: 1) developed a location-specific exposure metric that captures individuals’ “exposure” at a spatial scale that is consistent with publicly available county-level health outcome data; 2) characterized the United States’ population in counties that have experienced higher numbers of extreme heat events and thus identified population groups likely to experience future events; and 3) developed an empirical model describing the association between exposure to extreme heat events and hay fever. This research confirmed that the natural modes of forcing (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), seasonality, urban-rural classification, and division of country have an impact on the number extreme heat events recorded. Also, many of the areas affected by extreme heat events are shown to have a variety of vulnerable populations including women of childbearing age, people who are poor, and older adults. Lastly, this research showed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared to those in the lowest quartile, suggesting that exposure to extreme heat events increases risk of hay fever among US adults.

Spatial distribution of triatomines in domiciles of an urban area of the Brazilian Southeast Region

Reports of triatomine infestation in urban areas have increased. We analysed the spatial distribution of infestation by triatomines in the urban area of Diamantina, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Triatomines were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance. Spatial patterns of infestation were analysed by Ripley’s K function and Kernel density estimator. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land cover derived from satellite imagery were compared between infested and uninfested areas. A total of 140 adults of four species were captured (100 Triatoma vitticeps, 25 Panstrongylus geniculatus, 8 Panstrongylus megistus, and 7 Triatoma arthurneivai specimens). In total, 87.9% were captured within domiciles. Infection by trypanosomes was observed in 19.6% of 107 examined insects. The spatial distributions of T. vitticeps, P. geniculatus, T. arthurneivai, and trypanosome-positive triatomines were clustered, occurring mainly in peripheral areas. NDVI values were statistically higher in areas infested by T. vitticeps and P. geniculatus. Buildings infested by these species were located closer to open fields, whereas infestations of P. megistus and T. arthurneivai were closer to bare soil. Human occupation and modification of natural areas may be involved in triatomine invasion, exposing the population to these vectors.

Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis in urban households as risk factor of transmission of visceral leishmaniasis

Urban occurrence of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is linked to households with characteristics conducive to the presence of sand flies. This study proposes an ad hoc classification of households according to the environmental characteristics of receptivity to phlebotominae and an entomological study to validate the proposal. Here we describe the phlebotominae population found in intra- and peridomiciliary environments and analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the VL vector Lutzomyia longipalpis of households receptive to VL. In the region, 153 households were classified into levels of receptivity to VL followed by entomological surveys in 40 of those properties. Kruskal-Wallis verified the relationship between the households’ classification and sand fly abundance and Kernel analysis evaluated L. longipalpis spatial distribution: of the 740 sand flies were captured, 91% were L. longipalpis; 82% were found peridomiciliary whilst the remaining 18% were found intradomiciliary. No statistically significant association was found between sandflies and households levels. L. longipalpis counts were concentrated in areas of high vulnerability and some specific households were responsible for the persistence of the infestation. L. longipalpis prevails over other sand fly species for urban VL transmission. The entomological study may help target the surveillance and vector control strategies to domiciles initiating and/or maintaining VL outbreaks.

Leprosy in children and adolescents under 15 years old in an urban centre in Brazil

This original study describes the intra-urban distribution of cases of leprosy in residents under 15 years old in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil; the study also identifies the environment in which Mycobacterium leprae is being transmitted. The cases were distributed by operational classification, clinical forms, type of contact and the addresses were geo-referenced by neighborhood. Between 2007 and 2011, were reported 145 cases of leprosy in target population living in Salvador, corresponding to detection rates of 6.21, 6.14, 5.58, 5.41 and 6.88/100,000 inhabitants, respectively. The spatial distribution of the disease was focal. Of the 157 neighborhoods of Salvador, 44 (28.6%) notified cases of leprosy and in 22 (50%) of these were detected more than 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The infectious forms were found in 40% of cases. Over 90% of cases had been living in Salvador for more than five years. Overall, 52.6% reported having had contact with another infected individual inside the household and 25% in their social circle. In Salvador, M. leprae transmission is established. The situation is a major concern, since transmission is intense at an early age, indicating that this endemic disease is expanding and contacts extend beyond individual households.

Does social vulnerability for caries predict caries status of children in sub-urban Nigeria?

It is important to identify groups of people vulnerable to a disease condition. Aim: To determine the association between social vulnerability to caries and caries status of children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Methods: A composite vulnerability index for caries was developed using data generated for 992 children. Wilks’ Lambda test to verify relationship between vulnerability and its variables. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine if the social vulnerability for caries index was a good predictor for caries status. Results: The social vulnerability to caries index could not predict caries status. The study found that sex, age and number of siblings were the significant predictors of caries status in the study population. Females (AOR: 1.63; 95%CI: 1.08 – 2.46; p=0.02) and children with more than two siblings had higher odds of having caries (AOR: 2.61; 95%CI: 1.61 – 4.24; p<0.001) while children below 5 years had lower odds of having caries (AOR: 0.62; 95%CI: 0.39 – 1.00; p=0.05) Conclusions: The social vulnerability index for caries could not predict the caries status of children in the study population. Sensitive tools to identify children with caries in the study population should be developed.

L’analyse de la vulnérabilité d’une population déplacée suite à un désastre naturel : le cas du site planifié Corail à Port-au-Prince

À travers l’augmentation des désastres dits « naturels » au cours de la dernière décennie, des populations se sont retrouvées soudainement sans maison, sans endroit où loger. L’absence d’endroit où loger amènera donc les populations affectées à se déplacer temporairement et parfois de façon permanente. Cette étude s’intéresse à un cas spécifique de relocalisation dans un site organisé, Corail-Cesselesse, créé quelques mois après le tremblement de terre dévastateur de janvier 2010, en Haïti. Initialement occupé par des ménages provenant surtout des quartiers de Delmas et Port-au-Prince et qui s’étaient réfugiés sur le vaste terrain de golf de Pétionville après avoir perdu leurs habitations, le site de Corail est ainsi étudié de façon descriptive et comparative pour évaluer l’évolution de la vulnérabilité des ménages qui y vivent. Pour ce faire, une revue du concept portant sur la vulnérabilité et la gestion des risques est nécessaire pour y dégager les indicateurs clés servant à l’analyse de l’évolution des états précédant et succédant à une catastrophe naturelle. En particulier, une approche combinant trois méthodes ralliant le qualitatif et quantitatif est utile pour conduire cette évaluation. À travers des questionnaires, des données géospatiales et d’entrevues auprès de professionnels en aménagement dans les pays en développement, on analyse dans quelle mesure la vulnérabilité sociale a évolué. On constate que la prise de décision sur la création de Corail a négligé plusieurs dimensions sociales nécessaires pour permettre aux familles de se rétablir d’un aléa d’une telle amplitude.

L’analyse de la vulnérabilité d’une population déplacée suite à un désastre naturel : le cas du site planifié Corail à Port-au-Prince

À travers l’augmentation des désastres dits « naturels » au cours de la dernière décennie, des populations se sont retrouvées soudainement sans maison, sans endroit où loger. L’absence d’endroit où loger amènera donc les populations affectées à se déplacer temporairement et parfois de façon permanente. Cette étude s’intéresse à un cas spécifique de relocalisation dans un site organisé, Corail-Cesselesse, créé quelques mois après le tremblement de terre dévastateur de janvier 2010, en Haïti. Initialement occupé par des ménages provenant surtout des quartiers de Delmas et Port-au-Prince et qui s’étaient réfugiés sur le vaste terrain de golf de Pétionville après avoir perdu leurs habitations, le site de Corail est ainsi étudié de façon descriptive et comparative pour évaluer l’évolution de la vulnérabilité des ménages qui y vivent. Pour ce faire, une revue du concept portant sur la vulnérabilité et la gestion des risques est nécessaire pour y dégager les indicateurs clés servant à l’analyse de l’évolution des états précédant et succédant à une catastrophe naturelle. En particulier, une approche combinant trois méthodes ralliant le qualitatif et quantitatif est utile pour conduire cette évaluation. À travers des questionnaires, des données géospatiales et d’entrevues auprès de professionnels en aménagement dans les pays en développement, on analyse dans quelle mesure la vulnérabilité sociale a évolué. On constate que la prise de décision sur la création de Corail a négligé plusieurs dimensions sociales nécessaires pour permettre aux familles de se rétablir d’un aléa d’une telle amplitude.

Normative reference values for the 20-meter shuttlerun test in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk.