ICES and PICES Strategies for Coordinating Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

The social, economic, and ecological consequences of projected climate change on fish and fisheries are issues of global concern. In 2012, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) established a Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to synthesize and to promote innovative, credible, and objective science-based advice on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. SICCME takes advantage of the unique and complementary strengths of the two organizations to develop a research initiative that focuses on their shared interests. A phased implementation will ensure that SICCME will be responsive to a rapidly evolving research area while delivering ongoing syntheses of existing knowledge, thereby advancing new science and methodologies and communicating new insights at each phase.

Climate change and marine benthos: a review of existing research and future directions in the North Atlantic

There is growing evidence that climate change could affect marine benthic systems. This review provides information of climate change‐related impacts on the marine benthos in the North Atlantic. We cover a number of related research aspects, mainly in connection to two key issues. First, is the relationship between different physical aspects of climate change and the marine benthos. This section covers: (a) the responses to changes in seawater temperature (biogeographic shifts and phenology); (b) altered Hydrodynamics; (c) ocean acidification (OA); and (d) sea‐level rise‐coastal squeeze. The second major issue addressed is the possible integrated impact of climate change on the benthos. This work is based on relationships between proxies for climate variability, notably the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and the long‐term marine benthos. The final section of our review provides a series of conclusions and future directions to support climate change research on marine benthic systems. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:203–223. doi: 10.1002/wcc.330

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Holocene climate change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.

Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Mineralogy of selected geological deposits from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland as possible capping materials for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities

Solid low-level radioactive waste (LLW) is currently being disposed at a number of facilities in the United Kingdom (UK). The safety of these facilities relies to some extent on the use of engineered barriers, such as a cap, to isolate the waste and protect the environment. Generally, the material used as the barrier layer within such a cap should be of low permeability and it should retain this property over long timescales (beyond a few decades normally required for facilities containing non-radioactive wastes). The objective of this research is to determine the mineralogy of selected geological deposits from the UK and Ireland as part of a larger project to examine their suitability as a capping material, particularly on LLW sites. Mineral transformations, as a result of future climate change, may impact on the long-term performance of the cap and even the disposal facility. X-ray diffraction (XRD) was carried-out on the sand, silt and clay fractions of the London Clay, Belfast Upper Boulder Clay, Irish Glacial Till, Belfast Sleech, and Ampthill Clay geological deposits. Minerals were present that could pose both positive and negative effects on the long-term performance of the cap. Smectite, which has a high shrink swell potential, may produce cracks in London Clay, Belfast Upper Boulder Clay and Ampthill Clay capping material during dry, hotter periods as a possible consequence of future climate change; thus, resulting in higher permeability. Ampthill Clay and Belfast Sleech had elevated amounts of organic matter (OM) at 5.93% and 5.88%, respectively, which may also contribute to cracking. Over time, this OM may decompose and result in increased permeability. Gypsum (CaSO4) in the silt and sand fractions of Ampthill Clay may reduce the impact of erosion during wetter periods if it is incorporated into the upper portion of the cap. There are potential negative effects from the acidity created by the weathering of pyrite (FeS2) present in the silt and sand fractions of Belfast Sleech and Ampthill Clay that could impede the growth of grasses used to stabilize the surface of the capping material if this material is used as part of the vegetative soil layer. Additionally, acidic waters generated from pyrite weathering could negatively impact the lower lying capping layers and the disposal facility in general. However, the calcium carbonate (CaCO3) present in the silt and sand fractions of these deposits, and dolomite (CaMg(CO3)2) in Belfast Sleech, may counter act the acidity.