The effects of climate change on the coasts of Latin America and the Caribbean: Climate variability, dynamics and trends

This effort to study the effects of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean has been divided into four main parts in line with the comprehensive risk-assessment methodology developed. The outputs of this regional study are presented in four core documents: an analysis of coastal dynamics and climate variability, a study on the vulnerability of coastal areas, an evaluation of the impacts of climate change and an exploration of how all these different factors can be brought together in an assessment of the risks of the impacts of climate change on the region’s coastal areas. The overall objective of this study is to compile the specific types of information required in order to analyse the economic impacts of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The area covered by the study encompasses the coastlines of Latin America and the Caribbean (an area totalling approximately 72,182 km in length).

Product-portfolio management: A framework based on Methods, Organization, and Strategy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km(2), today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and local stressors on the biotechnological potential of marine macroalgae: a brief theoretical discussion of likely scenarios

Climate change can be associated with variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation events on the local and regional scales. Along coastal areas, flooding associated with increased occupation has seriously impacted products and services generated by marine life, in particular the biotechnological potential that macroalgae hold. Therefore, this paper analyzes the available information on the taxonomy, ecology and physiology of macroalgae and discusses the impacts of climate change and local stress on the biotechnological potential of Brazilian macroalgae. Based on data compiled from a series of floristic and ecological works, we note the disappearance in some Brazilian regions of major groups of biotechnological interest. In some cases, the introduction of exotic species has been documented, as well as expansion of the distribution range of economically important species. We also verify an increase in the similarities between the Brazilian phycogeographic provinces, although they still remain different. It is possible that these changes have resulted from the warming of South Atlantic water, as observed for its surface in southeastern Brazilian, mainly during the winter. However, unplanned urbanization of coastal areas can also produce similar biodiversity losses, which requires efforts to generate long-term temporal data on the composition, community structure and physiology of macroalgae.

Influence of habitat and climate change on European bird communities

Die Fragmentierung von Waldgebieten, der Verlust geeigneter Habitate, die Invasion exotischer Arten und globale Klimaveränderung haben auf Artengemeinschaften erhebliche Auswirkungen. Vögel dienen in vielen Fällen als Indikatorarten für Umweltveränderungen und, besonders, für Veränderungen im Zusammenhang mit globaler Erwärmung. In meiner Arbeit habe ich zuerst einen Literaturüberblick über die Auswirkungen globaler Klimaveränderung auf die Verbreitungsgebiete, den Artenreichtum und die Zusammensetzung von Vogelgemeinschaften dargestellt. Zahlreiche Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die Grenzen der Verbreitungsgebiete der meisten Vogelarten mit klimatischen Faktoren korrelieren. Verschiebungen der Verbreitungsgebiete in nördliche Richtung oder in höhere Regionen im Gebirge konnten bereits für viele temperate Vogelarten beobachtet werden. Weiterhin wurde ein zunehmender Artenreichtum besonders in nördlichen Breiten und in höheren Lagen für viele temperate Vogelgemeinschaften vorhergesagt. In trockenen Gebieten ist dagegen mit einer Abnahme des Artenreichtums zu rechnen. Im zweiten Teil meiner Arbeit habe ich untersucht, ob beobachtete Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung europäischer Vogelgemeinschaften tatsächlich durch aktuelle Klimaveränderungen beeinflußt werden. Das Zugverhalten der Arten war dabei ein Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung, weil zu erwarten war, daß Vogelarten mit verschiedenem Zugverhalten unterschiedlich auf Klimaveränderungen reagieren. Ich habe ein Regressionsmodell genutzt, welches die räumliche Beziehung zwischen dem Anteil von Langstreckenziehern, Kurzstreckenziehern und Standvögeln in europäischen Vogelgemeinschaften und verschiedenen Klimavariablen beschreibt. Für 21 Gebiete in Europa habe ich Daten über beobachtete Veränderungen in der Struktur der Vogelgemeinschaften und isochrone Klimaveränderungen zusammengetragen. Mit Hilfe dieser Klimaveränderungen und dem räumlichen Regressionsmodell konnte ich berechnen, welche Veränderungen in den Vogelgemeinschaften aufgrund der veränderten Klimabedingungen zu erwarten wären und sie mit beobachteten Veränderungen vergleichen. Beobachtete und berechnete Veränderungen korrelierten signifikant miteinander. Die beobachteten Veränderungen konnten nicht durch räumliche Autokorrelationseffekte oder durch alternative Faktoren, wie z.B. Veränderungen in der Landnutzung, erklärt werden. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit untersuchte ich für eine mitteleuropäische Vogelgemeinschaft welchen Einfluß Habitatveränderungen, die Invasion exotischer Arten und die Klimaveränderung auf Veränderungen der Häufigkeit und Verbreitungsgröße der 159 Vogelarten am Bodensee zwischen 1980-1981 und 2000-2002 hatten. Dabei konnte gezeigt werden, daß Veränderungen in der regionalen Abundanz sowohl durch Habitatveränderungen als auch durch Klimavänderungen hervorgerufen wurden. Exotische Arten schienen in dieser Zeit keinen bedeutenden Einfluß zu haben. Besonders bei Agrarlandarten, Arten mit nördlicheren Verbreitungsgebieten und bei Langstreckenziehern konnten signifikante Abnahmen in der Abundanz beobachtet werden. Vor allem die anhaltenden negativen Bestandsveränderungen bei Langstreckenziehern und die in den letzten zehn Jahren aufgetretenen Abnahmen nördlicher verbreiteter Vogelarten deuten darauf hin, daß die Klimaveränderung aktuell als der größte Einfluß für Vögel in Europa angesehen werden muß. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit, daß sich der anhaltende Druck auf die Umwelt in erster Linie durch Habitat- und Klimaveränderungen manifestiert.

Effects of temperature and acidity on Mediterranean benthic calcifiers, in the face of globale climate change

The Mediterranean Sea is expected to react faster to global change compared to the ocean and is already showing more pronounced warming and acidification rates. A study performed along the Italian western coast showed that porosity of the skeleton increases with temperature in the zooxanthellate (i.e. symbiotic with unicellular algae named zooxanthellae) solitary scleractinian Balanophyllia europaea while it does not vary with temperature in the solitary non-zooxanthellate Leptopsammia pruvoti. These results were confirmed by another study that indicated that the increase in porosity was accompanied by an increase of the fraction of the largest pores in the pore-space, perhaps due to an inhibition of the photosynthetic process at elevated temperatures, causing an attenuation of calcification. B. europaea, L. pruvoti and the colonial non-zooxanthellate Astroides calycularis, transplanted along a natural pH gradient, showed that high temperature exacerbated the negative effect of lowered pH on their mortality rates. The growth of the zooxanthellate species did not react to reduced pH, while the growth of the two non-zooxanthellate species was negatively affected. Reduced abundance of naturally occurring B. europaea, a mollusk, a calcifying and a non-calcifying macroalgae were observed along the gradient while no variation was seen in the abundance of a calcifying green alga. With decreasing pH, the mineralogy of the coral and mollusk did not change, while the two calcifying algae decreased the content of aragonite in favor of the less soluble calcium sulphates and whewellite (calcium oxalate), possibly as a mechanism of phenotypic plasticity. Increased values of porosity and macroporosity with CO2 were observed in B. europaea specimens, indicating reduces the resistance of its skeletons to mechanical stresses with increasing acidity. These findings, added to the negative effect of temperature on various biological parameters, generate concern on the sensitivity of this zooxanthellate species to the envisaged global climate change scenarios.

Reducing vulnerability to climate change in the Swiss Alps: a study of adaptive planning

The Swiss Alps will experience pronounced effects of climate change due to the combination of their latitudinal positioning, altitude and unique ecosystems, placing socio-economic stresses on alpine communities, many of which rely on seasonal tourism. Studies into tourism adaptation within the Swiss Alps have so far focused on the technical adaptation options of alpine stakeholders, rather than perceptions of adaptation to climate change at the operational and community level. This article investigates attitudes to adaptation in two alpine regions within Switzerland's well-established decentralized political framework, through semi-structured qualitative interviews. Stakeholders focused almost entirely on maintaining the status quo of winter tourism, through technical or marketing measures, with mixed attitudes towards climatic impacts. A matrix based on the relative internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats of adaptation measures (a SWOT framework) was used to assess the measures and suggest how stakeholders could capitalize on the new opportunities thrown up by climate change to create a competitive advantage. A comprehensive and collaborative planning approach is vital to enable policy makers and stakeholders to maximize opportunities, minimize the adverse effects of climate change on the local economy, and develop inclusive adaptation measures that benefit the entire region in order to create more sustainable social, economic and environmental structures.

Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation: Mid-Atlantic Region Case Study

Transportation has contributed to climate change and will most likely be impacted by changes in sea level, temperature, precipitation, and wind, for example. As the risk of climate change impacts become more imminent, pressure for adaptation within transportation agencies to address these impacts continues to rise. The most logical strategy is to integrate consideration of adaptation projects into the long-range transportation planning (LRTP) process. To do this, tools and experience are needed to assist transportation agencies. The Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation (CCATT) is a step-by-step method to evaluate climate change scenarios and impacts, inventory at-risk existing and proposed infrastructure, and assess mitigation practices to identify supporting adaptation efforts. This paper focuses on the application of CCATT to the Mid-Atlantic region using a case study on the Wilmington Area Planning Council (WILMAPCO), the Metropolitan Planning Organization for northern Delaware. The results of the application and case study demonstrate the importance of climate change adaptation practices in long-range transportation planning. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000515. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Macroevolutionary patterns in the diversification of parrots: effects of climate change, geological events and key innovations

Aim Parrots are thought to have originated on Gondwana during the Cretaceous. The initial split within crown group parrots separated the New Zealand taxa from the remaining extant species and was considered to coincide with the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana 82-85 Ma, assuming that the diversification of parrots was mainly shaped by vicariance. However, the distribution patterns of several extant parrot groups cannot be explained without invoking transoceanic dispersal, challenging this assumption. Here, we present a temporal and spatial framework for the diversification of parrots using external avian fossils as calibration points in order to evaluate the relative importance of the influences of past climate change, plate tectonics and ecological opportunity. Location Australasian, African, Indo-Malayan and Neotropical regions. Methods Phylogenetic relationships were investigated using partial sequences of the nuclear genes c-mos, RAG-1 and Zenk of 75 parrot and 21 other avian taxa. Divergence dates and confidence intervals were estimated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. Biogeographic patterns were evaluated taking temporal connectivity between areas into account. We tested whether diversification remained constant over time and if some parrot groups were more species-rich than expected given their age. Results Crown group diversification of parrots started only about 58 Ma, in the Palaeogene, significantly later than previously thought. The Australasian lories and possibly also the Neotropical Arini were found to be unexpectedly species-rich. Diversification rates probably increased around the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene, during two periods of major global climatic aberrations characterized by global cooling. Main conclusions The diversification of parrots was shaped by climatic and geological events as well as by key innovations. Initial vicariance events caused by continental break-up were followed by transoceanic dispersal and local radiations. Habitat shifts caused by climate change and mountain orogenesis may have acted as a catalyst to the diversification by providing new ecological opportunities and challenges as well as by causing isolation as a result of habitat fragmentation. The lories constitute the only highly nectarivorous parrot clade, and their diet shift, associated with morphological innovation, may have acted as an evolutionary key innovation, allowing them to explore underutilized niches and promoting their diversification.