Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Reversibility of cardiac fibrosis in mice chronically infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, under specific chemotherapy

This investigation was performed to verify the effect of specific chemotherapy (Benznidazole or MK-346) on the inflammatory and fibrotic cardiac alterations in mice chronically infected with the strains 21 SF (Type II) and Colombian (Type III) of Trypanosoma cruzi. To obtain chronically infected mice, two groups of 100 Swiss mice each, were infected with either the 21 SF or the Colombian strain (2x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 and 5x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 blood forms respectively). The rate of morality in the acute phase was of 80% for both groups. Twenty surviving mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 20 with the Colombian strain were then divided in treated and untreated groups. Excluding those that died during the course of treatment, 14 mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 15 with the Colombian strain were evaluated in the present study. Chemotherapy was performed with Benznidazole (N-benzil-2-nitro-1-imidazolacetamide) in the dose of 100mg/k.b.w/day, for 60 days, or with the MK-436(3(1-methyl-5 nitroimidazol-2-yl) in two daily doses of 250 mg/k.b.w, for 20 days. Parasitological cure tests were performed (xenodiagnosis, haemoculture, subinovulation of the blood into newborn mice), and serological indirect immunofluorescence test. The treated and untreated mice as well as intact controls were killed at different periods after treatment and the heart were submitted to histopathological study with hematoxilineosin and picrosirius staining; ultrastructural study; collagen immunotyping, fibronectin and laminin identification by immunofluorescence tests. Results: the untreated controls either infected with 21 SF or Colombian strain, showed inflammatory and fibrotic alterations that were mild to moderate with the 21 SF strain and intense with the Colombian strain. Redpicrosirius staining showed bundles of collagen in the interstitial space and around cardiac fibers. Increased deposits of mitritial components and collagen fibers, macrophages and fibroblasts appeared at the ultra structural examination. Deposits of fibronectin, laminin, pro-III and IV collagens were seen, most intense in those infected with the Colombian strain. Treated nice, parasitologically cured, presented clear-cut regression of the inflammatory lesions and of the interstitial matrix thickening. Mice infected with the Colombian strain and treated with MK-436, was parasitologically cured in 5/6 cases and showed mild inflammatory infiltration and fibrosis. The mice treated with Benznidazole (Colombian strain) did not cure and showed moderate fibrosis and inflammation. Treatment of the nice infected with the 21 SF with Benznidazole determined parasitological cure of all animals, that showed mild inflammation and fibrosis of the myocardium. The cured mice of all groups and treated but uncured showed collagen degradation at electronmicroscopy and decrease of immunofluorescence pattern of the matrix.

Displacement of Biomfhalaria glabrata by thiara granifera under natural conditions in the Dominican Republic

After a study of the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata snails in several breeding places in the Dominican Republic, the snail Thiara granifera was introduced in some B. glabrata habitats. T. granifera became established in one point in one habitat in the townof Quisqueya, in the east of the country. Around this point of establishment 6 points were selected in order to observe the population dynamics of both species of snails and the chemical and biological characteristics at each point. Four of these points already harbored B. glabrata. One control point was selected also harboring B. glabrata. After 14 months of observations, the results showed that T. granifera was competing with and displacing B. glabrata. This competition does not seem to be competition for food or vital space. Rather, B. glabrata avoids the presence of T. granifera and moves away to new areas, and this is possibly due to a chemical substance(s) secreted by T. granifera or by physical contact with the large number of individuals of T. granifera.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Development of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Vianna, 1911 in Lutzomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) under experimental conditions

The development of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis in experimentally infected Lutzomyia intermedia, showed colonization of the hindgut from 48h after the infective blood-meal, and the migration flagellates to the foregut, with a massive infection of the cardia at the 5th day post infection. Up to 10 days following the infective blood-meal, very few parasites were seen in the pharynx and cibarium. The role of L. intermedia as a vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis is discussed according to the estabilished criteria.

Large-scale imatinib dose-concentration-effect study in CML patients under routine care conditions.

This observational study analyzed imatinib pharmacokinetics and response in 2478 chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. Data were obtained through centralized therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) at median treatment duration of ≥2 years. First, individual initial trough concentrations under 400mg/day imatinib starting dose were estimated. Second, their correlation (C^min(400mg)) with reported treatment response was verified. Low imatinib levels were predicted in young male patients and those receiving P-gp/CYP3A4 inducers. These patients had also lower response rates (7% lower 18-months MMR in male, 17% lower 1-year CCyR in young patients, Kaplan-Meier estimates). Time-point independent multivariate regression confirmed a correlation of individual C^min(400mg) with response and adverse events. Possibly due to confounding factors (e.g. dose modifications, patient selection bias), the relationship seemed however flatter than previously reported from prospective controlled studies. Nonetheless, these observational results strongly suggest that a subgroup of patients could benefit from early dosage optimization assisted by TDM, because of lower imatinib concentrations and lower response rates.

Binding under Conflict Conditions: State-Space Analysis of Multivariate EEG Synchronization.

Real-world objects are often endowed with features that violate Gestalt principles. In our experiment, we examined the neural correlates of binding under conflict conditions in terms of the binding-by-synchronization hypothesis. We presented an ambiguous stimulus ("diamond illusion") to 12 observers. The display consisted of four oblique gratings drifting within circular apertures. Its interpretation fluctuates between bound ("diamond") and unbound (component gratings) percepts. To model a situation in which Gestalt-driven analysis contradicts the perceptually explicit bound interpretation, we modified the original diamond (OD) stimulus by speeding up one grating. Using OD and modified diamond (MD) stimuli, we managed to dissociate the neural correlates of Gestalt-related (OD vs. MD) and perception-related (bound vs. unbound) factors. Their interaction was expected to reveal the neural networks synchronized specifically in the conflict situation. The synchronization topography of EEG was analyzed with the multivariate S-estimator technique. We found that good Gestalt (OD vs. MD) was associated with a higher posterior synchronization in the beta-gamma band. The effect of perception manifested itself as reciprocal modulations over the posterior and anterior regions (theta/beta-gamma bands). Specifically, higher posterior and lower anterior synchronization supported the bound percept, and the opposite was true for the unbound percept. The interaction showed that binding under challenging perceptual conditions is sustained by enhanced parietal synchronization. We argue that this distributed pattern of synchronization relates to the processes of multistage integration ranging from early grouping operations in the visual areas to maintaining representations in the frontal networks of sensory memory.

Interleukin-28B polymorphisms, IP-10, viral load and age predict the outcome of therapy in genotype 1 hepatitis C virus under real-life conditions

Background and Aims: IL28B polymorphisms, interferon (IFN)-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score have been reported to predict rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), but it is not known whether these factors represent independent, clinically useful predictors. The aim of the study was to assess factors (including IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 levels and HOMA-IR score) independently predicting response to therapy in CHC under real life conditions.Methods: Multivariate analysis of factors predicting RVR and SVR in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with pegylated IFN alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicenter study.Results: Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (vs. AG/GG) (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age < 40 yrs (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age < 40 yrs (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (32 of 33, 97%; OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99; p=0.009) or 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67; p=0.01).Conclusions: In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pretreatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Egalitarian equivalence under asymmetric information

We propose a definition of egalitarian equivalence that extends Pazner and Schmeidler's (1978) concept to environments with incomplete information. If every feasible allocation rule can be implemented by an incentive compatible mechanism (as, for instance, in the case of non-exclusive information), then interim egalitarian equivalence and interim incentive efficiency remain compatible, as they were under complete information. When incentive constraints are more restrictive, on the other hand, the two criteria may become incompatible.

In vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells on laminin and collagen type I-coated membranes under static and dynamic conditions.

This study investigates in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells under static conditions and mechanical stimulation. The cells were cultured on collagen type I- and laminin-coated silicon membranes. Using a Flexcell device for mechanical stimulation, a cyclic strain of 0-20% was applied in a strain-stress-time model (stretch, 104 min relaxation, 15 s), imitating physiological bladder filling and voiding. Cell proliferation and alpha-actin, calponin, and caldesmon phenotype marker expression were analyzed. Nonstretched cells showed significant better growth on laminin during the first 8 days, thereafter becoming comparable to cells grown on collagen type I. Cyclic strain significantly reduced cell growth on both surfaces; however, better growth was observed on laminin. Neither the type of surface nor mechanical stimulation influenced the expression pattern of phenotype markers; alpha-actin was predominantly expressed. Coating with the extracellular matrix protein laminin improved in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells.

Development of Colombian isolates of Leishmania (Viannia) panamensis, Le. (V.) guyanensis and Le. (V.) braziliensis in the sandfly Lutzomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) under experimental conditions

The development of Colombian Leishmania species of the subgenus Viannia in Lutzomyia intermedia was similar to that observed with Brazilian Le. (V.) braziliensis: colonization of the pylorus by paramastigotes; promastigotes in the midgut and massive infection of stomodeal valve. Difference was observed in the number of paramastigotes colonizing the pylorus, which was smaller in Colombian Leishmania species than Brazilian Le. braziliensis.

Possible absence of attraction to odor in Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under laboratory conditions

We tested the attraction of Panstrongylus megistus odor under laboratory conditons, between males and females of this species and by individuals of each sex on recently fed virgin couples. We employed a system of choice boxes both with or without aeration over the stimuli in the tested situations. We also observed a clear trend among the insects to remain in the central box where they had been placed in the beginning of the tests.