An intelligent system to real time rainfall prediction using radar data

This work presents a new approach for rainfall measurements making use of weather radar data for real time application to the radar systems operated by institute of Meteorological Research (IPMET) - UNESP - Bauru - SP-Brazil. Several real time adjustment techniques has been presented being most of them based on surface rain-gauge network. However, some of these methods do not regard the effect of the integration area, time integration and distance rainfall-radar. In this paper, artificial neural networks have been applied for generate a radar reflectivity-rain relationships which regard all effects described above. To evaluate prediction procedure, cross validation was performed using data from IPMET weather Doppler radar and rain-gauge network under the radar umbrella. The preliminary results were acceptable for rainfalls prediction. The small errors observed result from the spatial density and the time resolution of the rain-gauges networks used to calibrate the radar.

Assessment of leisure-time physical activity for the prediction of inflammatory status and cardiometabolic profile

Objectives: Associations of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), commuting and total physical activity with inflammatory markers, insulin resistance and metabolic profile in individuals at high cardiometabolic risk were investigated. Design: This was a cross-sectional study. Methods: A total of 193 prediabetic adults were compared according to physical activity levels measured by the international physical activity questionnaire; p for trend and logistic regression was employed. Results: The most active subset showed lower BMI and abdominal circumference, reaching significance only for LTPA (p for trend = 0.02). Lipid profile improved with increased physical activity levels. Interleukin-6 decreased with increased total physical activity and LTPA (p for trend = 0.02 and 0.03, respectively), while adiponectin increased in more active subsets for LTPA (p for trend = 0.03). Elevation in adjusted OR for hypercholesterolemia was significant for lower LTPA durations (p for trend = 0.04). High apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A ratio was inversely associated with LTPA, commuting and total physical activity. Increase in adjusted OR for insulin resistance was found from the highest to the lowest category of LTPA (p for trend = 0.04) but significance disappeared after adjustments for BMI and energy intake. No association of increased C-reactive protein with physical activity domains was observed. Conclusions: In general, the associations of LTPA, but not commuting or total physical activity, with markers of cardiometabolic risk reinforces the importance of initiatives to increase this domain in programs for the prevention of lifestyle-related diseases. (C) 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Phase Space Box-counting based Method for Arrhythmia Prediction from Electrocardiogram Time Series

Arrhythmia is one kind of cardiovascular diseases that give rise to the number of deaths and potentially yields immedicable danger. Arrhythmia is a life threatening condition originating from disorganized propagation of electrical signals in heart resulting in desynchronization among different chambers of the heart. Fundamentally, the synchronization process means that the phase relationship of electrical activities between the chambers remains coherent, maintaining a constant phase difference over time. If desynchronization occurs due to arrhythmia, the coherent phase relationship breaks down resulting in chaotic rhythm affecting the regular pumping mechanism of heart. This phenomenon was explored by using the phase space reconstruction technique which is a standard analysis technique of time series data generated from nonlinear dynamical system. In this project a novel index is presented for predicting the onset of ventricular arrhythmias. Analysis of continuously captured long-term ECG data recordings was conducted up to the onset of arrhythmia by the phase space reconstruction method, obtaining 2-dimensional images, analysed by the box counting method. The method was tested using the ECG data set of three different kinds including normal (NR), Ventricular Tachycardia (VT), Ventricular Fibrillation (VF), extracted from the Physionet ECG database. Statistical measures like mean (μ), standard deviation (σ) and coefficient of variation (σ/μ) for the box-counting in phase space diagrams are derived for a sliding window of 10 beats of ECG signal. From the results of these statistical analyses, a threshold was derived as an upper bound of Coefficient of Variation (CV) for box-counting of ECG phase portraits which is capable of reliably predicting the impeding arrhythmia long before its actual occurrence. As future work of research, it was planned to validate this prediction tool over a wider population of patients affected by different kind of arrhythmia, like atrial fibrillation, bundle and brunch block, and set different thresholds for them, in order to confirm its clinical applicability.

Closed Time-like Curves and Inertial Frame Dragging: How to Time Travel via Spacetime Rotation

As the number of solutions to the Einstein equations with realistic matter sources that admit closed time-like curves (CTC's) has grown drastically, it has provoked some authors [10] to call for a physical interpretation of these seemingly exotic curves that could possibly allow for causality violations. A first step in drafting a physical interpretation would be to understand how CTC's are created because the recent work of [16] has suggested that, to follow a CTC, observers must counter-rotate with the rotating matter, contrary to the currently accepted explanation that it is due to inertial frame dragging that CTC's are created. The exact link between inertialframe dragging and CTC's is investigated by simulating particle geodesics and the precession of gyroscopes along CTC's and backward in time oriented circular orbits in the van Stockum metric, known to have CTC's that could be traversal, so the van Stockum cylinder could be exploited as a time machine. This study of gyroscopeprecession, in the van Stockum metric, supports the theory that CTC's are produced by inertial frame dragging due to rotating spacetime metrics.

Real-time adaptive models for the personalized prediction of glycemic profile in type 1 diabetes patients

Prediction of glycemic profile is an important task for both early recognition of hypoglycemia and enhancement of the control algorithms for optimization of insulin infusion rate. Adaptive models for glucose prediction and recognition of hypoglycemia based on statistical and artificial intelligence techniques are presented.

Prediction of PA12 melt viscosity in Laser Sintering by a Time and Temperature dependent rheological model

Ein auf Basis von Prozessdaten kalibriertes Viskositätsmodell wird vorgeschlagen und zur Vorhersage der Viskosität einer Polyamid 12 (PA12) Kunststoffschmelze als Funktion von Zeit, Temperatur und Schergeschwindigkeit angewandt. Im ersten Schritt wurde das Viskositätsmodell aus experimentellen Daten abgeleitet. Es beruht hauptsächlich auf dem drei-parametrigen Ansatz von Carreau, wobei zwei zusätzliche Verschiebungsfaktoren eingesetzt werden. Die Temperaturabhängigkeit der Viskosität wird mithilfe des Verschiebungsfaktors aT von Arrhenius berücksichtigt. Ein weiterer Verschiebungsfaktor aSC (Structural Change) wird eingeführt, der die Strukturänderung von PA12 als Folge der Prozessbedingungen beim Lasersintern beschreibt. Beobachtet wurde die Strukturänderung in Form einer signifikanten Viskositätserhöhung. Es wurde geschlussfolgert, dass diese Viskositätserhöhung auf einen Molmassenaufbau zurückzuführen ist und als Nachkondensation verstanden werden kann. Abhängig von den Zeit- und Temperaturbedingungen wurde festgestellt, dass die Viskosität als Folge des Molmassenaufbaus exponentiell gegen eine irreversible Grenze strebt. Die Geschwindigkeit dieser Nachkondensation ist zeit- und temperaturabhängig. Es wird angenommen, dass die Pulverbetttemperatur einen Molmassenaufbau verursacht und es damit zur Kettenverlängerung kommt. Dieser fortschreitende Prozess der zunehmenden Kettenlängen setzt molekulare Beweglichkeit herab und unterbindet die weitere Nachkondensation. Der Verschiebungsfaktor aSC drückt diese physikalisch-chemische Modellvorstellung aus und beinhaltet zwei zusätzliche Parameter. Der Parameter aSC,UL entspricht der oberen Viskositätsgrenze, wohingegen k0 die Strukturänderungsrate angibt. Es wurde weiterhin festgestellt, dass es folglich nützlich ist zwischen einer Fließaktivierungsenergie und einer Strukturänderungsaktivierungsenergie für die Berechnung von aT und aSC zu unterscheiden. Die Optimierung der Modellparameter erfolgte mithilfe eines genetischen Algorithmus. Zwischen berechneten und gemessenen Viskositäten wurde eine gute Übereinstimmung gefunden, so dass das Viskositätsmodell in der Lage ist die Viskosität einer PA12 Kunststoffschmelze als Folge eines kombinierten Lasersinter Zeit- und Temperatureinflusses vorherzusagen. Das Modell wurde im zweiten Schritt angewandt, um die Viskosität während des Lasersinter-Prozesses in Abhängigkeit von der Energiedichte zu berechnen. Hierzu wurden Prozessdaten, wie Schmelzetemperatur und Belichtungszeit benutzt, die mithilfe einer High-Speed Thermografiekamera on-line gemessen wurden. Abschließend wurde der Einfluss der Strukturänderung auf das Viskositätsniveau im Prozess aufgezeigt.

Eye movements during mental time travel follow a diagonal line

Recent research showed that past events are associated with the back and left side, whereas future events are associated with the front and right side of space. These spatial-temporal associations have an impact on our sensorimotor system: thinking about one's past and future leads to subtle body sways in the sagittal dimension of space (Miles, Nind, & Macrae, 2010). In this study we investigated whether mental time travel leads to sensorimotor correlates in the horizontal dimension of space. Participants were asked to mentally displace themselves into the past or future while measuring their spontaneous eye movements on a blank screen. Eye gaze was directed more rightward and upward when thinking about the future than when thinking about the past. Our results provide further insight into the spatial nature of temporal thoughts, and show that not only body, but also eye movements follow a (diagonal) "time line" during mental time travel.

An analysis of urban area travel by time of day /

Prepared for U.S. Federal Highway Administration.

Time of travel and dispersion of solutes in a 36.4-mile reach of the North Platte River downstream from Casper, Wyoming /

Bibliography: p. 17.

Initial assessment of time of travel and mixing through Gulf Island Pond and the lower Androscoggin River, Maine /

Bibliography: p. 29.

Time series forecasting and prediction : a bibliography with abstracts.

Includes indexes.

The life work of Henri René Guy de Maupassant, embracing romance, travel, comedy and verse, for the first time complete in English.

Library has number 378.