Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Interethnic Interaction Dynamics in the Russian Federation

The collapse of the Soviet Union at the beginning of the 1990s also meant the end of the idea of a common soviet identity incarnated in the "soviet man" and the new "historic community of the soviet people". While this idea still lives on in the generations of the 1920s to 1940s, the younger generations tend to prefer identification with family, profession, ethnic group or religion. Ms. Alexakhina set out to investigate different interethnic interaction strategies in the multi-ethnic context of the Russian Federation, with an emphasis on analysing the role of cultural and ethno-demographic characteristics of minority ethnic groups. It aimed to identify those specific patterns of interaction dynamics that have emerged in response to the political and economic transformation at present under way. The basic supposition was that the size and growth of an ethnic population are defined not only by demographic features such as fertility, mortality and net migration, but are also dependent on processes interethnic interaction and ethnic transition. The central hypothesis of the project was that the multi-ethnic and multi-cultural composition of Russia is apparently manifesting itself in the ethnic minority groups in various forms, but particularly in the form of ethnic revival and/or assimilation. The results of these complex phenomena are manifested as changes in ethnic attachments (national re-identification and language behaviour (multi-lingualism, language transition and loss of the mother tongue). The stress of the political and economic crisis has stimulated significant changes in ethnographic, social and cultural characteristics of inter-ethnic dynamics such as the rate of national re-identification, language behaviour, migration activity and the spread of mixed marriages, among both those minorities with a long history of settlement in Russia and those that were annexed during the soviet period. Patterns of language behaviour and the spread of mixed marriages were taken as the main indicators of the directions of interethnic interaction described as assimilation, ethnic revival and cultural pluralism. The first stage of the research involved a statistical analysis of census data from 1959 to 1994 in order to analyse the changing demographic composition of the largest ethnic groups of the Russian Federation. Until 1989 interethnic interaction in soviet society was distinguished by the process of russification but the political and economic transformation has stimulated the process of ethnic revival, leading to an apparent fall in the size of the Russian population due to ethnic re-identification by members of other ethnic groups who had previously identified themselves as Russian. Cross-classification of nationalities by demographic, social and cultural indicators has shown that the most important determinants of the nature of interethnic interaction are cultural factors such as religion and language affiliation. The analysis of the dynamics of language shift through the study of bilingualism and the domains of language usage for different demographic groups revealed a strong correlation between recognition of Russian as a mother tongue among some non-Russian ethnic groups and the declining size of these groups. The main conclusion from this macro-analysis of census data was the hypothesis of the growing importance of social and political factors upon ethnic succession, that ethnic identity is no longer a stable characteristic but has become dynamic in nature. In order to verify this hypothesis Ms. Alexakhina conducted a survey in four regions showing different patterns of interethnic interaction: the Karelian Republic, Buryatiya, the Nenezkii Autonomous Region and Tatarstan. These represented the west, east, north and south of the Russian Federation. Samples for the survey were prepared on the basis of census lists so as to exclude mono-Russian families in favour of mixed and ethnic-minority families. The survey confirmed the significant growth in the importance of ethnic affiliation in the everyday lives of people in the Federation following the de-centralisation of the political and economic spheres. Language was shown to be a key symbol of the consciousness of national distinction, confirmed by the fact that the process of russification has been reversed by the active mastering of the languages of titular nationalities. The results also confirmed that individual ethnic identity has ceased to be a fixed personal characteristic of one's cultural and genetic belonging, and people's social adaptation to the current political, social and economic conditions is also demonstrated in changes in individual ethnic self-identification. In general terms, the dynamic nature of national identity means that ethnic identity is at present acquiring the special features of overall social identity, for which the frequent change of priorities is an inherent feature of a person's life cycle. These are mainly linked with a multi-ethnic environment and high individual social mobility. From her results Ms. Alexakhina concludes that the development of national languages and multi-lingualism, together with the preservation of Russian as a state language, seems to be the most promising path to peaceful coexistence and the development of the national cultures of different ethnic groups within the Russian Federation.

The Process and Factors of Language Shift and Maintenance: Sociolinguistic Research into the Romanian Minority Community in Hungary

This study of the process of language shift and maintenance in the bilingual community of Romanians living in Hungary was based on 40 tape-recorded Romanian sociolinguistic interviews. These were transcribed into computerised form and provide an excellent source of sociolinguistic, contact linguistic and discourse analysis data, making it possible to show the effect of internal and external factors on the bilingual speech mode. The main topics considered were the choice of Romanian and Hungarian in community interactions, factors of language choice, code-switching: introlanguage and interlanguage, reasons for code-switching, the relationship between age and the frequency of code switching in the interview situation, and the unequal competition of minority and majority languages at school.

The Process and Factors of Language Shift and Maintenance: Sociolinguistic Research into the Romanian Minority Community in Hungary"

This study of the process of language shift and maintenance in the bilingual community of Romanians living in Hungary was based on 40 tape-recorded Romanian sociolinguistic interviews. These were transcribed into computerised form and provide an excellent source of sociolinguistic, contact linguistic and discourse analysis data, making it possible to show the effect of internal and external factors on the bilingual speech mode. The main topics considered were the choice of Romanian and Hungarian in community interactions, factors of language choice, code-switching: introlanguage and interlanguage, reasons for code-switching, the relationship between age and the frequency of code switching in the interview situation, and the unequal competition of minority and majority languages at school.

A Sociological Study of the Political Subsystem in Yugoslavia

In this critical analysis of sociological studies of the political subsystem in Yugoslavia since the fall of communism Mr. Ilic examined the work of the majority of leading researchers of politics in the country between 1990 and 1996. Where the question of continuity was important, he also looked at previous research by the writers in question. His aim was to demonstrate the overall extent of existing research and at the same time to identify its limits and the social conditions which defined it. Particular areas examined included the problems of defining basic concepts and selecting the theoretically most relevant indicators; the sources of data including the types of authentic materials exploited; problems of research work (contacts, field control, etc.); problems of analysisl and finally the problems arising from different relations with the people who commission the research. In the first stage of the research, looking at methods of defining key terms, special attention was paid to the analysis of the most frequently used terms such as democracy, totalitarianism, the political left and right, and populism. Numerous weaknesses were noted in the analytic application of these terms. In studies of the possibilities of creating a democratic political system in Serbia and its possible forms (democracy of the majority or consensual democracy), the profound social division of Serbian society was neglected. The left-right distinction tends to be identified with the government-opposition relation, in the way of practical politics. The idea of populism was used to pass responsibility for the policy of war from the manipulator to the manipulated, while the concept of totalitarianism is used in a rather old-fashioned way, with echoes of the cold war. In general, the terminology used in the majority of recent research on the political subsystem in Yugoslavia is characterised by a special ideological style and by practical political material, rather than by developed theoretical effort. The second section of analysis considered the wider theoretical background of the research and focused on studies of the processes of transformation and transition in Yugoslav society, particularly the work of Mladen Lazic and Silvano Bolcic, who he sees as representing the most important and influential contemporary Yugoslav sociologists. Here Mr. Ilic showed that the meaning of empirical data is closely connected with the stratification schemes towards which they are oriented, so that the same data can have different meanings in shown through different schemes. He went on to show the observed theoretical frames in the context of wider ideological understanding of the authors' ideas and research. Here the emphasis was on the formalistic character of such notions as command economy and command work which were used in analysing the functioning and the collapse of communist society, although Mr. Ilic passed favourable judgement on the Lazic's critique of political over-determination in its various attempts to explain the disintegration of the communist political (sub)system. The next stage of the analysis was devoted to the problem of empirical identification of the observed phenomena. Here again the notions of the political left and right were of key importance. He sees two specific problems in using these notion in talking about Yugoslavia, the first being that the process of transition in the FR Yugoslavia has hardly begun. The communist government has in effect remained in power continuously since 1945, despite the introduction of a multi-party system in 1990. The process of privatisation of public property was interrupted at a very early stage and the results of this are evident on the structural level in the continuous weakening of the social status of the middle class and on the political level because the social structure and dominant form of property direct the majority of votes towards to communists in power. This has been combined with strong chauvinist confusion associated with the wars in Croatia and Bosnia, and these ideas were incorporated by all the relevant Yugoslav political parties, making it more difficult to differentiate between them empirically. In this context he quotes the situation of the stream of political scientists who emerged in the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade. During the time of the one-party regime, this faculty functioned as ideological support for official communist policy and its teachers were unable to develop views which differed from the official line, but rather treated all contrasting ideas in the same way, neglecting their differences. Following the introduction of a multi-party system, these authors changed their idea of a public enemy, but still retained an undifferentiated and theoretically undeveloped approach to the issue of the identification of political ideas. The fourth section of the work looked at problems of explanation in studying the political subsystem and the attempts at an adequate causal explanation of the triumph of Slobodan Milosevic's communists at four subsequent elections was identified as the key methodological problem. The main problem Mr. Ilic isolated here was the neglect of structural factors in explaining the voters' choice. He then went on to look at the way empirical evidence is collected and studied, pointing out many mistakes in planning and determining the samples used in surveys as well as in the scientifically incorrect use of results. He found these weaknesses particularly noticeable in the works of representatives of the so-called nationalistic orientation in Yugoslav sociology of politics, and he pointed out the practical political abuses which these methodological weaknesses made possible. He also identified similar types of mistakes in research by Serbian political parties made on the basis of party documentation and using methods of content analysis. He found various none-sided applications of survey data and looked at attempts to apply other sources of data (statistics, official party documents, various research results). Mr. Ilic concluded that there are two main sets of characteristics in modern Yugoslav sociological studies of political subsystems. There are a considerable number of surveys with ambitious aspirations to explain political phenomena, but at the same time there is a clear lack of a developed sociological theory of political (sub)systems. He feels that, in the absence of such theory, most researcher are over-ready to accept the theoretical solutions found for interpretation of political phenomena in other countries. He sees a need for a stronger methodological bases for future research, either 1) in complementary usage of different sources and ways of collecting data, or 2) in including more of a historical dimension in different attempts to explain the political subsystem in Yugoslavia.

Civil Society and Political Parties in the Period of Transition

The major aim of Mr. Marada's project was to investigate the role of political parties on the one hand, and various institutional forms of civil society on the other, in the process of establishing mechanisms of political decision-making and policy-formation in Czechoslovakia and the Czech Republic, after November 1989. Mr. Marada wanted to examine what consequences the interplay and tensions between political parties and institutions of civil society had on the status and practical understanding of citizenship and civil society. At the beginning of his research Mr. Marada found that, while the sphere of the political was relatively clearly defined, the phenomenon of civil society required a conceptual clarification. He devoted a great deal of time to analysing the emergence, development, and disintegration of Civic Forum as the major agent of the regime change and subsequent political reforms. Alongside this analysis is a commentary on Czech society in general, drawing on established research to show how, as yet, a kind of civic incompetence reigns within the country, and how this situation has its roots in the belief, promoted by politicians themselves, that politics is an activity for experts only. The final outcome of his research took the form of a series of articles, in English, totalling 40 pages.

Bayes Factors Based on Test Statistics

Traditionally, the use of Bayes factors has required the specification of proper prior distributions on model parameters implicit to both null and alternative hypotheses. In this paper, I describe an approach to defining Bayes factors based on modeling test statistics. Because the distributions of test statistics do not depend on unknown model parameters, this approach eliminates the subjectivity normally associated with the definition of Bayes factors. For standard test statistics, including the _2, F, t and z statistics, the values of Bayes factors that result from this approach can be simply expressed in closed form.

Endothelial survival factors and spatial completion, but not pericyte coverage of retinal capillaries determine vessel plasticity

Pericyte loss and capillary regression are characteristic for incipient diabetic retinopathy. Pericyte recruitment is involved in vessel maturation, and ligand-receptor systems contributing to pericyte recruitment are survival factors for endothelial cells in pericyte-free in vitro systems. We studied pericyte recruitment in relation to the susceptibility toward hyperoxia-induced vascular remodeling using the pericyte reporter X-LacZ mouse and the mouse model of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Pericytes were found in close proximity to vessels, both during formation of the superficial and the deep capillary layers. When exposure of mice to the ROP was delayed by 24 h, i.e., after the deep retinal layer had formed [at postnatal (p) day 8], preretinal neovascularizations were substantially diminished at p18. Mice with a delayed ROP exposure had 50% reduced avascular zones. Formation of the deep capillary layers at p8 was associated with a combined up-regulation of angiopoietin-1 and PDGF-B, while VEGF was almost unchanged during the transition from a susceptible to a resistant capillary network. Inhibition of Tie-2 function either by soluble Tie-2 or by a sulindac analog, an inhibitor of Tie-2 phosphorylation, resensitized retinal vessels to neovascularizations due to a reduction of the deep capillary network. Inhibition of Tie-2 function had no effect on pericyte recruitment. Our data indicate that the final maturation of the retinal vasculature and its resistance to regressive signals such as hyperoxia depend on the completion of the multilayer structure, in particular the deep capillary layers, and are independent of the coverage by pericytes.

Livelihoods in Transition: Changing Land Use Strategies and Ecological Implications in a Post Soviet Setting (Kyrgyzstan)

The sudden independence of Kyrgyzstan from the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a total rupture of industrial and agricultural production. Based on empirical data, this study seeks to identify key land use transformation processes since the late 1980s, their impact on people's livelihoods and the implication for natural resources in the communes of Tosh Bulak and Saz, located in the Sokuluk River Basin on the northern slope of the Kyrgyz Range. Using the concept of the sustainable livelihood approach as an analytical framework, three different livelihood strategies were identified: (1) An accumulation strategy applied by wealthy households where renting and/or buying of land is a key element; they are the only household category capable of venturing into rain fed agriculture. (2) A preserving strategy involving mainly intermediate households who are not able to buy or rent additional agricultural land; very often they are forced to return their land to the commune or sell it to wealthier households. (3) A coping strategy including mainly poor households consisting of elderly pensioners or headed by single mothers; due to their limited labour and economic power, agricultural production is very low and hardly covers subsistence needs; pensions and social allowances form the backbone of these livelihoods. Ecological assessments have shown that the forage productivity of remote high mountain pastures has increased from 5 to 22 per cent since 1978. At the same time forage productivity on pre-mountain and mountain pastures close to villages has generally decreased from 1 to 34 per cent. It seems that the main avenues for livelihoods to increase their wealth are to be found in the agricultural sector by controlling more and mainly irrigated land as well as by increasing livestock. The losers in this process are thus those households unable to keep or exploit their arable land or to benefit from new agricultural land. Ensuring access to land for the poor is therefore imperative in order to combat rural poverty and socio-economic disparities in rural Kyrgyzstan.

ANIMATED TRANSITION IN SIMILARITY-BASED TILED IMAGE LAYOUT

Effective techniques for organizing and visualizing large image collections are in growing demand as visual search gets increasingly popular. iMap is a treemap representation for visualizing and navigating image search and clustering results based on the evaluation of image similarity using both visual and textual information. iMap not only makes effective use of available display area to arrange images but also maintains stable update when images are inserted or removed during the query. A key challenge of using iMap lies in the difficult to follow and track the changes when updating the image arrangement as the query image changes. For many information visualization applications, showing the transition when interacting with the data is critically important as it can help users better perceive the changes and understand the underlying data. This work investigates the effectiveness of animated transition in a tiled image layout where the spiral arrangement of the images is based on their similarity. Three aspects of animated transition are considered, including animation steps, animation actions, and flying paths. Exploring and weighting the advantages and disadvantages of different methods for each aspect and in conjunction with the characteristics of the spiral image layout, we present an integrated solution, called AniMap, for animating the transition from an old layout to a new layout when a different image is selected as the query image. To smooth the animation and reduce the overlap among images during the transition, we explore different factors that might have an impact on the animation and propose our solution accordingly. We show the effectiveness of our animated transition solution by demonstrating experimental results and conducting a comparative user study.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Host- rather than virus-related factors reduce health-related quality of life in hepatitis C virus infection

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with decreased health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Although HCV has been suggested to directly impair neuropsychiatric functions, other factors may also play a role. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we assessed the impact of various host-, disease- and virus-related factors on HRQOL in a large, unselected population of anti-HCV-positive subjects. All individuals (n = 1736) enrolled in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS) were asked to complete the Short Form 36 (SF-36) and the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: 833 patients (48%) returned the questionnaires. Survey participants had significantly worse scores in both assessment instruments when compared to a general population. By multivariable analysis, reduced HRQOL (mental and physical summary scores of SF-36) was independently associated with income. In addition, a low physical summary score was associated with age and diabetes, whereas a low mental summary score was associated with intravenous drug use. HADS anxiety and depression scores were independently associated with income and intravenous drug use. In addition, HADS depression score was associated with diabetes. None of the SF-36 or HADS scores correlated with either the presence or the level of serum HCV RNA. In particular, SF-36 and HADS scores were comparable in 555 HCV RNA-positive and 262 HCV RNA-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-HCV-positive subjects have decreased HRQOL compared to controls. The magnitude of this decrease was clinically important for the SF-36 vitality score. Host and environmental, rather than viral factors, seem to impact on HRQOL level.

Growth curves for cardio-metabolic risk factors in children and adolescents

OBJECTIVE: This study developed percentile curves for anthropometric (waist circumference) and cardiovascular (lipid profile) risk factors for US children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A representative sample of US children and adolescents from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1988 to 1994 (NHANES III) and the current national series (NHANES 1999-2006) were combined. Percentile curves were constructed, nationally weighted, and smoothed using the Lambda, Mu, and Sigma method. The percentile curves included age- and sex-specific percentile values that correspond with and transition into the adult abnormal cut-off values for each of these anthropometric and cardiovascular components. To increase the sample size, a second series of percentile curves was also created from the combination of the 2 NHANES databases, along with cross-sectional data from the Bogalusa Heart Study, the Muscatine Study, the Fels Longitudinal Study and the Princeton Lipid Research Clinics Study. RESULTS: These analyses resulted in a series of growth curves for waist circumference, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol from a combination of pediatric data sets. The cut-off for abnormal waist circumference in adult males (102 cm) was equivalent to the 94(th) percentile line in 18-year-olds, and the cut-off in adult females (88 cm) was equivalent to the 84(th) percentile line in 18-year-olds. Triglycerides were found to have a bimodal pattern among females, with an initial peak at age 11 and a second at age 20; the curve for males increased steadily with age. The HDL curve for females was relatively flat, but the male curve declined starting at age 9 years. Similar curves for total and LDL cholesterol were constructed for both males and females. When data from the additional child studies were added to the national data, there was little difference in their patterns or rates of change from year to year. CONCLUSIONS: These curves represent waist and lipid percentiles for US children and adolescents, with identification of values that transition to adult abnormalities. They could be used conditionally for both epidemiological and possibly clinical applications, although they need to be validated against longitudinal data.

Mitochondrial Outer Membrane Proteome of Trypanosoma brucei Reveals Novel Factors Required to Maintain Mitochondrial Morphology

Trypanosoma brucei is a unicellular parasite that causes devastating diseases in humans and animals. It diverged from most other eukaryotes very early in evolution and, as a consequence, has an unusual mitochondrial biology. Moreover, mitochondrial functions and morphology are highly regulated throughout the life cycle of the parasite. The outer mitochondrial membrane defines the boundary of the organelle. Its properties are therefore key for understanding how the cytosol and mitochondria communicate and how the organelle is integrated into the metabolism of the whole cell. We have purified the mitochondrial outer membrane of T. brucei and characterized its proteome using label-free quantitative mass spectrometry for protein abundance profiling in combination with statistical analysis. Our results show that the trypanosomal outer membrane proteome consists of 82 proteins, two-thirds of which have never been associated with mitochondria before. 40 proteins share homology with proteins of known functions. The function of 42 proteins, 33 of which are specific to trypanosomatids, remains unknown. 11 proteins are essential for the disease-causing bloodstream form of T. brucei and therefore may be exploited as novel drug targets. A comparison with the outer membrane proteome of yeast defines a set of 17 common proteins that are likely present in the mitochondrial outer membrane of all eukaryotes. Known factors involved in the regulation of mitochondrial morphology are virtually absent in T. brucei. Interestingly, RNAi-mediated ablation of three outer membrane proteins of unknown function resulted in a collapse of the network-like mitochondrion of procyclic cells and for the first time identified factors that control mitochondrial shape in T. brucei.

Successful Careers in Football – Findings of a Person-Oriented Study

A successful career in football is the result of the appropriate interaction between different aspects of an individual’s life, since the various areas and phases of one’s life depend on each other. An endogenous causal relationship exists throughout a person’s entire history (Mayer, 1990). In particular, their family, work and sports career must be tuned to each other. The transition from the initial stages of education (compulsory schooling) to vocational training, which coincides with the beginning of the selection for the national youth teams, is a particularly critical phase (Wylleman, Theeboom, & Lavallee, 2004). In order to do justice to the overall life situation of a young sports talent during this transition phase, we have adopted a holistic perspective and follow Bergman, Magnusson and El-Khouri (2003) in using a person-oriented and systemic approach. In doing so, our main focus lies on the person-environment system. This overall system is made up of various subsystems, consisting of several operating factors which interact with one another. The different levels to which these operating factors are expressed lead to observable patterns, which can be summarised in the form of types. Particularly promising types can therefore be identified and the developmental process can be described. Former players on the Swiss U16 to U21 national football teams, born between 1981 and 1987 (n=159), were interviewed concerning their careers, and the operating factors school/vocational training, family support and sports environment were examined. With the help of the LICUR method (Linking of Clusters after removal of Residue) (Bergman et al., 2003), developmental types were identified which were promising in terms of achieving top performance in adulthood. A range of developmental types and anti-types emerge for the transition from the under-15 phase to the over-16 phase. One particularly promising type is observed in the over-16 phase, for which the operating factors education, family support and participation in national U16 to U18 teams have slightly above-average scores, with scores that are well above average in the sports environment.