927 resultados para Time-series Analysis


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Coastal zooplankton have been investigated since 1984 at a Long Term Ecological Research station MC (LTER-MC) in the inner Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea, Western Mediterranean). The sampling site, located between the littoral and the open sea systems, has very active hydrography that affects plankton communities. The present work was aimed at establishing whether, in such a dynamic and variable environment, species associations and homogeneous periods could be identified as characteristic and stable features of the mesozooplankton over the period 1984–2006. Hierarchical clustering was applied to assess species associations based on a matrix of similarities between species (R-mode), and homogeneous periods based on a matrix of similarities between observations (Q-mode). The Indicator Value index [IndVal, Dufrene and Legendre (1997) Species assemblages and indicator species: the need for a flexible asymmetrical approach. Ecol. Monogr., 67, 345–366] was calculated to identify species characterizing each period. Five taxonomic groups with well-defined composition and abundance were identified as robust associations that likely reflect different modes of community functioning. The temporal course of these associations was largely shaped by strong seasonal forcing comprising both physical and biological (e.g. trophic) signals. These associations persisted over the long term, thus indicating some stable characters in the Naples zooplankton time-series, providing evidence of resilience in communities in highly variable coastal conditions.

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short doi:10/rf8 full doi:10.5285/f014becf-d6d6-3bb9-e044-000b5de50f38

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We compare the long-term and seasonal patterns of abundance and phenology of the cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis at the L4 site (1988–2013) in the North Atlantic and at the LTER-MC site (1984–2013) in the Mediterranean Sea to investigate whether high temperature limits the occurrence of this species with latitudinal cline. The two sites are well suited to testing this hypothesis as they are characterized by similar chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a) but different temperature [sea surface temperature (SST)]. The abundance of O. similis at L4 was ∼10 times higher than at LTER-MC. Moreover, this species had several peaks of abundance during the year at L4 but a single peak in spring at LTER-MC. The main mode of temporal variability in abundance was seasonal at both sites. The abundance of O. similis was negatively correlated with SST only at LTER-MC, whereas it was positively correlated with Chl a at both sites. Oithona similis had a temperature optimum between 15 and 20°C reaching maximum abundance at ∼16.5°C at LTER-MC, but showed no Chl a optimum at either site. We conclude that the abundance of O. similis increases with prey availability up to 16.5°C and that temperature >20°C represents the main limiting factor for population persistence.

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Historical GIS has the potential to re-invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long-run time-series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.