Geochemical analysis of nine sections from the Nama Group, Namibia

The first appearance of skeletal metazoans in the late Ediacaran (~550 million years ago; Ma) has been linked to the widespread development of oxygenated oceanic conditions, but a precise spatial and temporal reconstruction of their evolution has not been resolved. Here we consider the evolution of ocean chemistry from ~550 to ~541 Ma across shelf-to-basin transects in the Zaris and Witputs Sub-Basins of the Nama Group, Namibia. New carbon isotope data capture the final stages of the Shuram/Wonoka deep negative C-isotope excursion, and these are complemented with a reconstruction of water column redox dynamics utilising Fe-S-C systematics and the distribution of skeletal and soft-bodied metazoans. Combined, these inter-basinal datasets provide insight into the potential role of ocean redox chemistry during this pivotal interval of major biological innovation. The strongly negative d13C values in the lower parts of the sections reflect both a secular, global change in the C-isotopic composition of Ediacaran seawater, as well as the influence of 'local' basinal effects as shown by the most negative d13C values occurring in the transition from distal to proximal ramp settings. Critical, though, is that the transition to positive d13C values postdates the appearance of calcified metazoans, indicating that the onset of biomineralization did not occur under post-excursion conditions. Significantly, we find that anoxic and ferruginous deeper water column conditions were prevalent during and after the transition to positive d13C that marks the end of the Shuram/Wonoka excursion. Thus, if the C isotope trend reflects the transition to global-scale oxygenation in the aftermath of the oxidation of a large-scale, isotopically light organic carbon pool, it was not sufficient to fully oxygenate the deep ocean. Both sub-basins reveal highly dynamic redox structures, where shallow, inner ramp settings experienced transient oxygenation. Anoxic conditions were caused either by episodic upwelling of deeper anoxic waters or higher rates of productivity. These settings supported short-lived and monospecific skeletal metazoan communities. By contrast, microbial (thrombolite) reefs, found in deeper inner- and mid-ramp settings, supported more biodiverse communities with complex ecologies and large skeletal metazoans. These long-lived reef communities, as well as Ediacaran soft-bodied biotas, are found particularly within transgressive systems, where oxygenation was persistent. We suggest that a mid-ramp position enabled physical ventilation mechanisms for shallow water column oxygenation to operate during flooding and transgressive sea-level rise. Our data support a prominent role for oxygen, and for stable oxygenated conditions in particular, in controlling both the distribution and ecology of Ediacaran skeletal metazoan communities.

Can FDI promote export diversification and sophistication of host countries? : dynamic panel system GMM analysis

Recent trade literature highlights the importance of export diversification and upgrading in fostering faster and sustainable economic growth. This study investigates the impact of FDI inflow and stock on the level of export diversification and sophistication in host country's export baskets. By utilizing the dynamic panel data model, we find that the five-year lagged FDI inflow correlates positively with both export diversification and sophistication, and FDI stock makes the positive contribution to export sophistication. These findings provide support for the possibility of successful capabilities transfer to and building by local firms. We also find that these positive impacts of FDI exist only in developing countries.

The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Dynamic stiffness analysis of bridge abutments

Strong motion records obtained in instrumented short-span bridges show the importance of the abutments in the dynamic response of the structure. Existing models study the pier foundation influence but not the abutment performance. This work proposes two and three dimensional boundary element models in the frequency domain and studies the dimensionless dynamic stiffness of standard bridge abutments.

A computer program for the analysis of the dynamic bending-torsion coupling in bridges using a mini-computer

The analysis of modes and natural frequencies is of primary interest in the computation of the response of bridges. In this article the transfer matrix method is applied to this problem to provide a computer code to calculate the natural frequencies and modes of bridge-like structures. The Fortran computer code is suitable for running on small computers and results are presented for a railway bridge.

Resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on structural and dynamic interdependencies

Critical infrastructures support everyday activities in modern societies, facilitating the exchange of services and quantities of various nature. Their functioning is the result of the integration of diverse technologies, systems and organizations into a complex network of interconnections. Benefits from networking are accompanied by new threats and risks. In particular, because of the increased interdependency, disturbances and failures may propagate and render unstable the whole infrastructure network. This paper presents a methodology of resilience analysis of networked systems of systems. Resilience generalizes the concept of stability of a system around a state of equilibrium, with respect to a disturbance and its ability of preventing, resisting and recovery. The methodology provides a tool for the analysis of off-equilibrium conditions that may occur in a single system and propagate through the network of dependencies. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage of the analysis is qualitative. It identifies the resilience scenarios, i.e. the sequence of events, triggered by an initial disturbance, which include failures and the system response. The second stage is quantitative. The most critical scenarios can be simulated, for the desired parameter settings, in order to check if they are successfully handled, i.e recovered to nominal conditions, or they end into the network failure. The proposed methodology aims at providing an effective support to resilience-informed design.