Modelling biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems: a Bayesian approach

Forest models are tools for explaining and predicting the dynamics of forest ecosystems. They simulate forest behavior by integrating information on the underlying processes in trees, soil and atmosphere. Bayesian calibration is the application of probability theory to parameter estimation. It is a method, applicable to all models, that quantifies output uncertainty and identifies key parameters and variables. This study aims at testing the Bayesian procedure for calibration to different types of forest models, to evaluate their performances and the uncertainties associated with them. In particular,we aimed at 1) applying a Bayesian framework to calibrate forest models and test their performances in different biomes and different environmental conditions, 2) identifying and solve structure-related issues in simple models, and 3) identifying the advantages of additional information made available when calibrating forest models with a Bayesian approach. We applied the Bayesian framework to calibrate the Prelued model on eight Italian eddy-covariance sites in Chapter 2. The ability of Prelued to reproduce the estimated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) was tested over contrasting natural vegetation types that represented a wide range of climatic and environmental conditions. The issues related to Prelued's multiplicative structure were the main topic of Chapter 3: several different MCMC-based procedures were applied within a Bayesian framework to calibrate the model, and their performances were compared. A more complex model was applied in Chapter 4, focusing on the application of the physiology-based model HYDRALL to the forest ecosystem of Lavarone (IT) to evaluate the importance of additional information in the calibration procedure and their impact on model performances, model uncertainties, and parameter estimation. Overall, the Bayesian technique proved to be an excellent and versatile tool to successfully calibrate forest models of different structure and complexity, on different kind and number of variables and with a different number of parameters involved.

Temporal dynamics of benthic assemblages along a gradient of ocean acidification at a CO2 vent’s system of the Ischia Island

Global warming and ocean acidification, due to rising atmospheric levels of CO2, represent an actual threat to terrestrial and marine environments. Since Industrial Revolution, in less of 250 years, pH of surface seawater decreased on average of 0.1 unit, and is expected to further decreases of approximately 0.3-0.4 units by the end of this century. Naturally acidified marine areas, such as CO2 vent systems at the Ischia Island, allow to study acclimatation and adaptation of individual species as well as the structure of communities, and ecosystems to OA. The main aim of this thesis was to study how hard bottom sublittoral benthic assemblages changed trough time along a pH gradient. For this purpose, the temporal dynamics of mature assemblages established on artificial substrates (volcanic tiles) over a 3 year- period were analysed. Our results revealed how composition and dynamics of the community were altered and highly simplified at different level of seawater acidification. In fact, extreme low values of pH (approximately 6.9), affected strongly the assemblages, reducing diversity both in terms of taxa and functional groups, respect to lower acidification levels (mean pH 7.8) and ambient conditions (8.1 unit). Temporal variation was observed in terms of species composition but not in functional groups. Variability was related to species belonging to the same functional group, suggesting the occurrence of functional redundancy. Therefore, the analysis of functional groups kept information on the structure, but lost information on species diversity and dynamics. Decreasing in ocean pH is only one of many future global changes that will occur at the end of this century (increase of ocean temperature, sea level rise, eutrophication etc.). The interaction between these factors and OA could exacerbate the community and ecosystem effects showed by this thesis.

DTN discovery and routing: from space applications to terrestrial networks.

L'argomento di questa tesi è l'architettura di rete Delay-/Disruption-Tolerant Networking (DTN), progettata per operare nelle reti “challenged”, dove la suite di protocolli TCP/IP risulta inefficace a causa di lunghi ritardi di propagazione del segnale, interruzioni e disturbi di canale, ecc. Esempi di reti “challenged” variano dalle reti interplanetarie alle Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks (MANETs). Le principali implementazioni dell'architettura DTN sono DTN2, implementazione di riferimento, e ION, sviluppata da NASA JPL per applicazioni spaziali. Una grande differenza tra reti spaziali e terrestri è che nello spazio i movimenti dei nodi sono deterministici, mentre non lo sono per i nodi mobili terrestri, i quali generalmente non conoscono la topologia della rete. Questo ha portato allo sviluppo di diversi algoritmi di routing: deterministici per le reti spaziali e opportunistici per quelle terrestri. NASA JPL ha recentemente deciso di estendere l'ambito di applicazione di ION per supportare anche scenari non deterministici. Durante la tesi, svolta presso NASA JPL, mi sono occupato di argomenti diversi, tutti finalizzati a questo obiettivo. Inizialmente ho testato la nuova implementazione dell'algoritmo IP Neighbor Discovery (IPND) di ION, corretti i bug e prodotta la documentazione ufficiale. Quindi ho contribuito ad integrare il Contact Graph Routing (CGR) di ION nel simulatore DTN “ONE” utilizzando la Java Native Interface (JNI) come ponte tra il codice Java di ONE e il codice C di ION. In particolare ho adattato tutte le librerie di ION necessarie per far funzionare CGR all'interno dell'ambiente di ONE. Infine, dopo aver analizzato un dataset di tracce reali di nodi mobili, ho contribuito a progettare e a sviluppare OCGR, estensione opportunistica del CGR, quindi ne ho curato l'integrazione in ONE. I risultati preliminari sembrano confermare la validità di OCGR che, una volta messo a punto, può diventare un valido concorrente ai più rinomati algoritmi opportunistici.

The Small Project Observatory: Visualizing Software Ecosystems

Software evolution research has focused mostly on analyzing the evolution of single software systems. However, it is rarely the case that a project exists as standalone, independent of others. Rather, projects exist in parallel within larger contexts in companies, research groups or even the open-source communities. We call these contexts software ecosystems, and on this paper we present The Small Project Observatory, a prototype tool which aims to support the analysis of project ecosystems through interactive visualization and exploration. We present a case-study of exploring an ecosystem using our tool, we describe about the architecture of the tool, and we distill the lessons learned during the tool-building experience.

Terrestrial feeding in aquatic turtles: environment-dependent feeding behavior modulation and the evolution of terrestrial feeding in Emydidae

Evolutionary transitions between aquatic and terrestrial environments are common in vertebrate evolution. These transitions require major changes in most physiological functions, including feeding. Emydid turtles are ancestrally aquatic, with most species naturally feeding only in water, but some terrestrial species can modulate their feeding behavior appropriately for both media. In addition, many aquatic species can be induced to feed terrestrially. A comparison of feeding in both aquatic and terrestrial environments presents an excellent opportunity to investigate the evolution of terrestrial feeding from aquatic feeding, as well as a system within which to develop methods for studying major evolutionary transitions between environments. Individuals from eight species of emydid turtles (six aquatic, two terrestrial) were filmed while feeding underwater and on land. Bite kinematics were analyzed to determine whether aquatic turtles modulated their feeding behavior in a consistent and appropriate manner between environments. Aquatic turtles showed consistent changes between environments, taking longer bites and using more extensive motions of the jaw and hyoid when feeding on land. However, these motions differ from those shown by species that naturally feed in both environments and mostly do not seem to be appropriate for terrestrial feeding. For example, more extensive motions of the hyoid are only effective during underwater suction feeding. Emydids evolving to feed on land probably would have needed to evolve or learn to overcome many, but not all, aspects of the intrinsic emydid response to terrestrial feeding. Studies that investigate major evolutionary transitions must determine what responses to the new environment are shown by naïve individuals in order to fully understand the evolutionary patterns and processes associated with these transitions.

Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

CO2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation.