Reviewing the EU ETS review? Report of the CEPS TAsk Force on "Does the ETS market produce the 'right' price signal"? CEPS Task Force Report, 12 November 2012

Drawing on discussions within a CEPS Task Force on the revised EU emissions trading system, this report provides a comprehensive assessment of the pros and cons of the various measures put forward by different stakeholders to address the level and stability of the price of carbon in the EU. It argues that the European Commission, the member states, the European Parliament and other stakeholders need to give serious consideration to introducing some kind of ‘dynamic’ adjustment provision to address the relatively inelastic supply. The report also suggests that there is a need to improve communication of market-sensitive information, for example by leaving the management of the ETS to a specialised body.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

Using triangulation to identify word senses

Word sense disambiguation is the task of determining which sense of a word is intended from its context. Previous methods have found the lack of training data and the restrictiveness of dictionaries' choices of senses to be major stumbling blocks. A robust novel algorithm is presented that uses multiple dictionaries, the Internet, clustering and triangulation to attempt to discern the most useful senses of a given word and learn how they can be disambiguated. The algorithm is explained, and some promising sample results are given.

Mechanisms and dynamics of protein clustering on a solid surface

A methodology for discovering the mechanisms and dynamics of protein clustering on solid surfaces is presented. In situ atomic force microscopy images are quantitatively compared to Monte Carlo simulations using cluster statistics to differentiate various models. We study lysozyme adsorption on mica as a model system and find that all surface-supported clusters are mobile, not just the monomers, with diffusion constant inversely related to cluster size. The surface monomer diffusion constant is measured to be D1∼9×10-16  cm2 s-1, such a low value being difficult to measure using other techniques.

Learning a procedural task: effectiveness of multimedia presentations

Three experiments investigated the effectiveness of presenting procedural information through different media and their combinations. Experiment 1 examined the effectiveness of text, line drawings, text and line drawings, video. and video stills for learning a first aid task. The results showed an advantage of text and line drawings and of the video presentation over the other three conditions for both bandaging performance and answering questions about the task. Experiment 2 showed that the beneficial effect of the combination of text and pictures could not be accounted for simply in terms of a dual coding explanation. Rather, the effectiveness of the media and their combinations was influenced by the extent to which they conveyed action information. Finally, Experiment 3 showed no evidence of a contiguity effect: text and pictures were as effective when presented together on the same screen as when they were presented separately. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Implicit and explicit processes in a second-language learning task

Two experiments examined the learning of a set of Greek pronunciation rules through explicit and implicit modes of rule presentation. Experiment 1 compared the effectiveness of implicit and explicit modes of presentation in two modalities, visual and auditory. Subjects in the explicit or rule group were presented with the rule set, and those in the implicit or natural group were shown a set of Greek words, composed of letters from the rule set, linked to their pronunciations. Subjects learned the Greek words to criterion and were then given a series of tests which aimed to tap different types of knowledge. The results showed an advantage of explicit study of the rules. In addition, an interaction was found between mode of presentation and modality. Explicit instruction was more effective in the visual than in the auditory modality, whereas there was no modality effect for implicit instruction. Experiment 2 examined a possible reason for the advantage of the rule groups by comparing different combinations of explicit and implicit presentation in the study and learning phases. The results suggested that explicit presentation of the rules is only beneficial when it is followed by practice at applying them.

New strings for old : the role of similarity processing in an incidental learning task

This paper reports three experiments that examine the role of similarity processing in McGeorge and Burton's (1990) incidental learning task. In the experiments subjects performed a distractor task involving four-digit number strings, all of which conformed to a simple hidden rule. They were then given a forced-choice memory test in which they were presented with pairs of strings and were led to believe that one string of each pair had appeared in the prior learning phase. Although this was not the case, one string of each pair did conform to the hidden rule. Experiment 1 showed that, as in the McGeorge and Burton study, subjects were significantly more likely to select test strings that conformed to the hidden rule. However, additional analyses suggested that rather than having implicitly abstracted the rule, subjects may have been selecting strings that were in some way similar to those seen during the learning phase. Experiments 2 and 3 were designed to try to separate out effects due to similarity from those due to implicit rule abstraction. It was found that the results were more consistent with a similarity-based model than implicit rule abstraction per se.

Understanding the dimensional change card sort: Perspectives from task success and failure

Four experiments consider some of the circumstances under which children follow two different rule pairs when sorting cards. Previous research has repeatedly found that 3-year-olds encounter substantial difficulties implementing the second of two conflicting rule sets, despite their knowledge of these rules. One interpretation of this phenomenon [Cognitive Complexity and Control (CCC) theory] is that 3-year-olds have problems establishing an appropriate hierarchical ordering for rules. The present data suggest an alternative account of children's card sorting behaviour, according to which the cognitive salience of test card features may be more important than inflexibility with respect to rule representation.

Soft topographic map for clustering and classification of bacteria

In this work a new method for clustering and building a topographic representation of a bacteria taxonomy is presented. The method is based on the analysis of stable parts of the genome, the so-called “housekeeping genes”. The proposed method generates topographic maps of the bacteria taxonomy, where relations among different type strains can be visually inspected and verified. Two well known DNA alignement algorithms are applied to the genomic sequences. Topographic maps are optimized to represent the similarity among the sequences according to their evolutionary distances. The experimental analysis is carried out on 147 type strains of the Gammaprotebacteria class by means of the 16S rRNA housekeeping gene. Complete sequences of the gene have been retrieved from the NCBI public database. In the experimental tests the maps show clusters of homologous type strains and present some singular cases potentially due to incorrect classification or erroneous annotations in the database.

Bayesian clustering of farm types using the mixtures model

A Bayesian method of classifying observations that are assumed to come from a number of distinct subpopulations is outlined. The method is illustrated with simulated data and applied to the classification of farms according to their level and variability of income. The resultant classification shows a greater diversity of technical charactersitics within farm types than is conventionally the case. The range of mean farm income between groups in the new classification is wider than that of the conventional method and the variability of income within groups is narrower. Results show that the highest income group in 2000 included large specialist dairy farmers and pig and poultry producers, whilst in 2001 it included large and small specialist dairy farms and large mixed dairy and arable farms. In both years the lowest income group is dominated by non-milk producing livestock farms.