Multicenter randomized phase II clinical trial comparing neoadjuvant oxaliplatin, capecitabine, and preoperative radiotherapy with or without cetuximab followed by total mesorectal excision in patients with high-risk rectal cancer (EXPERT-C).

PURPOSE: To evaluate the addition of cetuximab to neoadjuvant chemotherapy before chemoradiotherapy in high-risk rectal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with operable magnetic resonance imaging-defined high-risk rectal cancer received four cycles of capecitabine/oxaliplatin (CAPOX) followed by capecitabine chemoradiotherapy, surgery, and adjuvant CAPOX (four cycles) or the same regimen plus weekly cetuximab (CAPOX+C). The primary end point was complete response (CR; pathologic CR or, in patients not undergoing surgery, radiologic CR) in patients with KRAS/BRAF wild-type tumors. Secondary end points were radiologic response (RR), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety in the wild-type and overall populations and a molecular biomarker analysis. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-five eligible patients were randomly assigned. Ninety (60%) of 149 assessable tumors were KRAS or BRAF wild type (CAPOX, n = 44; CAPOX+C, n = 46), and in these patients, the addition of cetuximab did not improve the primary end point of CR (9% v 11%, respectively; P = 1.0; odds ratio, 1.22) or PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; P = .363). Cetuximab significantly improved RR (CAPOX v CAPOX+C: after chemotherapy, 51% v 71%, respectively; P = .038; after chemoradiation, 75% v 93%, respectively; P = .028) and OS (HR, 0.27; P = .034). Skin toxicity and diarrhea were more frequent in the CAPOX+C arm. CONCLUSION: Cetuximab led to a significant increase in RR and OS in patients with KRAS/BRAF wild-type rectal cancer, but the primary end point of improved CR was not met.

Gene scanning of VDJH-amplified segments is a clinically relevant technique to detect contaminating tumor cells in the apheresis products of multiple myeloma patients undergoing autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation.

Contaminating tumour cells in apheresis products have proved to influence the outcome of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation (APBSCT). The gene scanning of clonally rearranged VDJ segments of the heavy chain immunoglobulin gene (VDJH) is a reproducible and easy to perform technique that can be optimised for clinical laboratories. We used it to analyse the aphereses of 27 MM patients undergoing APBSCT with clonally detectable VDJH segments, and 14 of them yielded monoclonal peaks in at least one apheresis product. The presence of positive results was not related to any pre-transplant characteristics, except the age at diagnosis (lower in patients with negative products, P = 0.04). Moreover, a better pre-transplant response trended to associate with a negative result (P = 0.069). Patients with clonally free products were more likely to obtain a better response to transplant (complete remission, 54% vs 28%; >90% reduction in the M-component, 93% vs 43% P = 0.028). In addition, patients transplanted with polyclonal products had longer progression-free survival, (39 vs 19 months, P = 0.037) and overall survival (81% vs 28% at 5 years, P = 0.045) than those transplanted with monoclonal apheresis. In summary, the gene scanning of apheresis products is a useful and clinically relevant technique in MM transplanted patients.

Surgical Options After Fontan Failure

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this European multicenter study was to report surgical outcomes of Fontan takedown, Fontan conversion and heart transplantation (HTX) for failing Fontan patients in terms of all-cause mortality and (re-)HTX. METHODS: A retrospective international study was conducted by the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association among 22 member centres. Outcome of surgery to address failing Fontan was collected in 225 patients among which were patients with Fontan takedown (n=38; 17%), Fontan conversion (n=137; 61%) or HTX (n=50; 22%). RESULTS: The most prevalent indication for failing Fontan surgery was arrhythmia (43.6%), but indications differed across the surgical groups (p<0.001). Fontan takedown was mostly performed in the early postoperative phase after Fontan completion, while Fontan conversion and HTX were mainly treatment options for late failure. Early (30 days) mortality was high for Fontan takedown (ie, 26%). Median follow-up was 5.9 years (range 0-23.7 years). The combined end point mortality/HTX was reached in 44.7% of the Fontan takedown patients, in 26.3% of the Fontan conversion patients and in 34.0% of the HTX patients, respectively (log rank p=0.08). Survival analysis showed no difference between Fontan conversion and HTX (p=0.13), but their ventricular function differed significantly. In patients who underwent Fontan conversion or HTX ventricular systolic dysfunction appeared to be the strongest predictor of mortality or (re-)HTX. Patients with valveless atriopulmonary connection (APC) take more advantage of Fontan conversion than patients with a valve-containing APC (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Takedown surgery for failing Fontan is mostly performed in the early postoperative phase, with a high risk of mortality. There is no difference in survival after Fontan conversion or HTX.

Influence of Remote Monitoring on Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes after Cardioverter-Defibrillator Implantation

AIMS: Device-based remote monitoring (RM) has been linked to improved clinical outcomes at short to medium-term follow-up. Whether this benefit extends to long-term follow-up is unknown. We sought to assess the effect of device-based RM on long-term clinical outcomes in recipients of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients who underwent ICD implantation for primary prevention. RM was initiated with patient consent according to availability of RM hardware at implantation. Patients with concomitant cardiac resynchronization therapy were excluded. Data on hospitalizations, mortality and cause of death were systematically assessed using a nationwide healthcare platform. A Cox proportional hazards model was employed to estimate the effect of RM on mortality and a composite endpoint of cardiovascular mortality and hospital admission due to heart failure (HF). RESULTS: 312 patients were included with a median follow-up of 37.7months (range 1 to 146). 121 patients (38.2%) were under RM since the first outpatient visit post-ICD and 191 were in conventional follow-up. No differences were found regarding age, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart failure etiology or NYHA class at implantation. Patients under RM had higher long-term survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.50, CI 0.27-0.93, p=0.029) and lower incidence of the composite outcome (HR 0.47, CI 0.27-0.82, p=0.008). After multivariate survival analysis, overall survival was independently associated with younger age, higher LVEF, NYHA class lower than 3 and RM. CONCLUSION: RM was independently associated with increased long-term survival and a lower incidence of a composite endpoint of hospitalization for HF or cardiovascular mortality.

Risk Prediction In Cardiovascular Epidemiology: Considerations for Modeling Composite Endpoints

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Estimation du paramètre d'une copule archimedienne en présence de censure dépendante

Les méthodes classiques d’analyse de survie notamment la méthode non paramétrique de Kaplan et Meier (1958) supposent l’indépendance entre les variables d’intérêt et de censure. Mais, cette hypothèse d’indépendance n’étant pas toujours soutenable, plusieurs auteurs ont élaboré des méthodes pour prendre en compte la dépendance. La plupart de ces méthodes émettent des hypothèses sur cette dépendance. Dans ce mémoire, nous avons proposé une méthode d’estimation de la dépendance en présence de censure dépendante qui utilise le copula-graphic estimator pour les copules archimédiennes (Rivest etWells, 2001) et suppose la connaissance de la distribution de la variable de censure. Nous avons ensuite étudié la consistance de cet estimateur à travers des simulations avant de l’appliquer sur un jeu de données réelles.

Improving risk stratification in non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with combined assessment of GRACE and CRUSADE risk scores

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment is fundamental in the management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), enabling estimation of prognosis. AIMS: To evaluate whether the combined use of GRACE and CRUSADE risk stratification schemes in patients with myocardial infarction outperforms each of the scores individually in terms of mortality and haemorrhagic risk prediction. METHODS: Observational retrospective single-centre cohort study including 566 consecutive patients admitted for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The CRUSADE model increased GRACE discriminatory performance in predicting all-cause mortality, ascertained by Cox regression, demonstrating CRUSADE independent and additive predictive value, which was sustained throughout follow-up. The cohort was divided into four different subgroups: G1 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE<41); G2 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE≥41); G3 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE<41); G4 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE≥41). RESULTS: Outcomes and variables estimating clinical severity, such as admission Killip-Kimbal class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction, deteriorated progressively throughout the subgroups (G1 to G4). Survival analysis differentiated three risk strata (G1, lowest risk; G2 and G3, intermediate risk; G4, highest risk). The GRACE+CRUSADE model revealed higher prognostic performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.76) than GRACE alone (AUC 0.70) for mortality prediction, further confirmed by the integrated discrimination improvement index. Moreover, GRACE+CRUSADE combined risk assessment seemed to be valuable in delineating bleeding risk in this setting, identifying G4 as a very high-risk subgroup (hazard ratio 3.5; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Combined risk stratification with GRACE and CRUSADE scores can improve the individual discriminatory power of GRACE and CRUSADE models in the prediction of all-cause mortality and bleeding. This combined assessment is a practical approach that is potentially advantageous in treatment decision-making.

Outcomes of a general hospital-based Home Parenteral Nutrition (HPN) program: report of our experience from a 26-year period

Background: Home parenteral nutrition (HPN) was introduced in Spain in the late 1980s. Our hospital was a pioneering medical centre in this field. Aim: Analyze outcomes of our HPN program. Methods: Retrospective study of patients receiving HPN between 1986-2012. Study variables are expressed as frequency, mean ± SD (range), median [interquartile range]. Parametrics, non-parametrics test and survival analysis (p < 0.05) were applied. Results: 91 patients (55 females and 36 males, mean age: 50.6 ± 5 yrs.) who received HPN for an accrual period of 55,470 days (median: 211 days [range: 63-573]) were included. The most prevalent underlying condition was cancer (49.5%), with the commonest HPN indication being short bowel syndrome (41.1%). The most frequently used catheter type was the tunneled catheter (70.7%). The complication rate was 3.58/1,000 HPN days (2.68, infection; 0.07, occlusion; 0.07 thrombosis; and 0.59, metabolic complications). Complications were consistently associated with both the underlying condition and HPN length. Infections were most frequent within the first 1,000 days of HPN. Liver disease incidence was related to HPN duration. HPN could be discontinued in 42.3% of patients. Ten-year survival rate was 42%, and varied across the underlying conditions. Conclusions: In the present series, the commonest reason for HPN was cancer. Our complication rate is in keeping with that reported in the literature. The overall survival rate was 42%, and varied across the underlying conditions.

Exploring the potential role of allostatic load biomarkers in risk assessment of patients presenting with depressive symptoms

Background: Depression is a major health problem worldwide and the majority of patients presenting with depressive symptoms are managed in primary care. Current approaches for assessing depressive symptoms in primary care are not accurate in predicting future clinical outcomes, which may potentially lead to over or under treatment. The Allostatic Load (AL) theory suggests that by measuring multi-system biomarker levels as a proxy of measuring multi-system physiological dysregulation, it is possible to identify individuals at risk of having adverse health outcomes at a prodromal stage. Allostatic Index (AI) score, calculated by applying statistical formulations to different multi-system biomarkers, have been associated with depressive symptoms. Aims and Objectives: To test the hypothesis, that a combination of allostatic load (AL) biomarkers will form a predictive algorithm in defining clinically meaningful outcomes in a population of patients presenting with depressive symptoms. The key objectives were: 1. To explore the relationship between various allostatic load biomarkers and prevalence of depressive symptoms in patients, especially in patients diagnosed with three common cardiometabolic diseases (Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Diabetes and Stroke). 2 To explore whether allostatic load biomarkers predict clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially in patients with three common cardiometabolic diseases (CHD, Diabetes and Stroke). 3 To develop a predictive tool to identify individuals with depressive symptoms at highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Methods: Datasets used: ‘DepChron’ was a dataset of 35,537 patients with existing cardiometabolic disease collected as a part of routine clinical practice. ‘Psobid’ was a research data source containing health related information from 666 participants recruited from the general population. The clinical outcomes for 3 both datasets were studied using electronic data linkage to hospital and mortality health records, undertaken by Information Services Division, Scotland. Cross-sectional associations between allostatic load biomarkers calculated at baseline, with clinical severity of depression assessed by a symptom score, were assessed using logistic and linear regression models in both datasets. Cox’s proportional hazards survival analysis models were used to assess the relationship of allostatic load biomarkers at baseline and the risk of adverse physical health outcomes at follow-up, in patients with depressive symptoms. The possibility of interaction between depressive symptoms and allostatic load biomarkers in risk prediction of adverse clinical outcomes was studied using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. Finally, the value of constructing a risk scoring scale using patient demographics and allostatic load biomarkers for predicting adverse outcomes in depressed patients was investigated using clinical risk prediction modelling and Area Under Curve (AUC) statistics. Key Results: Literature Review Findings. The literature review showed that twelve blood based peripheral biomarkers were statistically significant in predicting six different clinical outcomes in participants with depressive symptoms. Outcomes related to both mental health (depressive symptoms) and physical health were statistically associated with pre-treatment levels of peripheral biomarkers; however only two studies investigated outcomes related to physical health. Cross-sectional Analysis Findings: In DepChron, dysregulation of individual allostatic biomarkers (mainly cardiometabolic) were found to have a non-linear association with increased probability of co-morbid depressive symptoms (as assessed by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score HADS-D≥8). A composite AI score constructed using five biomarkers did not lead to any improvement in the observed strength of the association. In Psobid, BMI was found to have a significant cross-sectional association with the probability of depressive symptoms (assessed by General Health Questionnaire GHQ-28≥5). BMI, triglycerides, highly sensitive C - reactive 4 protein (CRP) and High Density Lipoprotein-HDL cholesterol were found to have a significant cross-sectional relationship with the continuous measure of GHQ-28. A composite AI score constructed using 12 biomarkers did not show a significant association with depressive symptoms among Psobid participants. Longitudinal Analysis Findings: In DepChron, three clinical outcomes were studied over four years: all-cause death, all-cause hospital admissions and composite major adverse cardiovascular outcome-MACE (cardiovascular death or admission due to MI/stroke/HF). Presence of depressive symptoms and composite AI score calculated using mainly peripheral cardiometabolic biomarkers was found to have a significant association with all three clinical outcomes over the following four years in DepChron patients. There was no evidence of an interaction between AI score and presence of depressive symptoms in risk prediction of any of the three clinical outcomes. There was a statistically significant interaction noted between SBP and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular outcome, and also between HbA1c and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of all-cause mortality for patients with diabetes. In Psobid, depressive symptoms (assessed by GHQ-28≥5) did not have a statistically significant association with any of the four outcomes under study at seven years: all cause death, all cause hospital admission, MACE and incidence of new cancer. A composite AI score at baseline had a significant association with the risk of MACE at seven years, after adjusting for confounders. A continuous measure of IL-6 observed at baseline had a significant association with the risk of three clinical outcomes- all-cause mortality, all-cause hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular event. Raised total cholesterol at baseline was associated with lower risk of all-cause death at seven years while raised waist hip ratio- WHR at baseline was associated with higher risk of MACE at seven years among Psobid participants. There was no significant interaction between depressive symptoms and peripheral biomarkers (individual or combined) in risk prediction of any of the four clinical outcomes under consideration. Risk Scoring System Development: In the DepChron cohort, a scoring system was constructed based on eight baseline demographic and clinical variables to predict the risk of MACE over four years. The AUC value for the risk scoring system was modest at 56.7% (95% CI 55.6 to 57.5%). In Psobid, it was not possible to perform this analysis due to the low event rate observed for the clinical outcomes. Conclusion: Individual peripheral biomarkers were found to have a cross-sectional association with depressive symptoms both in patients with cardiometabolic disease and middle-aged participants recruited from the general population. AI score calculated with different statistical formulations was of no greater benefit in predicting concurrent depressive symptoms or clinical outcomes at follow-up, over and above its individual constituent biomarkers, in either patient cohort. SBP had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with cardiometabolic disease; HbA1c had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes. Peripheral biomarkers may have a role in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially for those with existing cardiometabolic disease, and this merits further investigation.

Does prenatal diagnosis modify neonatal treatment and early outcome of children with esophageal atresia?

International audience

Análise comportamental : um estudo por análise de sobrevivência, aplicada a cartões de crédito

A capacidade de adaptação e rapidez de decisão, distinguem as empresas que melhor conseguem competir e crescer no mercado global. Para atuar rapidamente, as organizações precisam de sistemas de informação cada vez mais eficazes, surgindo recentemente uma nova função considerada fundamental para as empresas, que é a de Cientista de Dados. É neste contexto e para responder aos desafios atuais e futuros, que surgem sistemas de informação cada vez mais avançados, suportados por modelos de análise e visualização estatística. Este trabalho consiste em criar uma metodologia de desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão de incumprimento e perfil do consumidor, aplicado a cartões de crédito, com base numa exposição de análise comportamental, utilizando técnicas de análise de sobrevivência. São definidas técnicas de tratamento dos dados recolhidos, estimado modelo não-paramétrico de Kaplan-Meier e vários modelos de Cox de riscos proporcionais. Com recurso à curva ROC, dependente do tempo, à AUC e ao índice de Gini, conclui-se que o modelo final apresenta um desempenho positivo para identificar os clientes em situação de incumprimento ou com propensão a incumprir.

Análise de sobrevivência ao cancro colo-retal nos períodos 2000-2001 e 2007-2008 na região norte de Portugal

O cancro colo-retal é um dos tipos de cancro mais comuns, em ambos os sexos, tendo em conta os dados existentes nos registos oncológicos nas mais diversas regiões do globo, facto que acontece também na região Norte de Portugal. O objetivo desta dissertação foi utilizar métodos de análise de sobrevivência tradicional e de análise de sobrevivência relativa, em dados do cancro colo-retal, considerando um período de observação de 5 anos. Os dados analisados são provenientes do Registo Oncológico Regional do Norte (RORENO), obtendo-se, após inspeção e tratamento prévio, um total de 2855 pacientes aos quais foi diagnosticado cancro colo-retal em dois períodos distintos, 2000-2001 e 2007- 2008. Pretendeu-se também determinar de que forma as covariáveis influenciam a sobrevivência, e como esta evoluiu entre essas duas coortes. Dado não existir informação sobre as causas de morte, foi objetivo deste estudo estimar que parte da mortalidade observada se deve à doença em questão e que parte se deve a outras causas que afetam a mortalidade da população geral. Foram, também, estimados os coeficientes das covariáveis consideradas para os modelos adotados. Todos os resultados foram obtidos utilizando como recurso o software R e seus pacotes adequados. Utilizaram-se diversos métodos tais como Kaplan-Meier, Cox, Ederer II e Net Survival, sendo este último considerado o mais adequado a este tipo de estudo pois é considerado pela comunidade científica o único estimador centrado para análise de sobrevivência relativa e cujas propriedades estatísticas permitem a sua utilização em estudos comparativos entre países. Verificou-se, por este estimador, que não existem diferenças significativas na sobrevivência em função do sexo, idade, distrito ou localização do cancro (cólon ou reto). Por outro lado verificaram-se diferenças significativas para a sobrevivência em função do estadio e das coortes, registando-se um acréscimo global de 8.5% na sobrevivência aos 5 anos de 2000-2001 para 2007-2008. Por fim destacam-se alguns aspetos que merecem atenção em estudos futuros.

Critical energy deficit and mortality in critically ill patients

Objective: We investigate the influence of caloric and protein deficit on mortality and length of hospital stay of critically ill patients. Methods: A cohort prospective study including 100 consecutive patients in a tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) receiving enteral or parenteral nutrition. The daily caloric and protein deficit were collected each day for a maximum of 30 days. Energy deficits were divided into critical caloric deficit (≥ 480 kcal/day) and non-critical caloric deficit (≤ 480 kcal/day); and in critical protein deficit (≥ 20 g/day) and non-critical protein deficit (≤ 20 g/day). The findings were correlated with hospital stay and mortality. Results: The mortality rate was 33%. Overall, the patients received 65.4% and 67.7% of the caloric and protein needs. Critical caloric deficit was found in 72% of cases and critical protein deficit in 70% of them. There was a significant correlation between length of stay and accumulated caloric deficit (R = 0.37; p < 0.001) and protein deficit (R = 0.28; p < 0.001). The survival analysis showed that mortality was greater in patients with both critical caloric (p < 0.001) and critical protein deficits (p < 0.01). The Cox regression analysis showed that critical protein deficit was associated with higher mortality (HR 0.25, 95% CI 0.07-0.93, p = 0.03). Conclusions: The incidence of caloric and protein deficit in the ICU is high. Both caloric and protein deficits increase the length of hospital stay, and protein deficit greater than 20 g/day is an independent factor for mortality in critical care unit.