An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism.

The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups to much larger groups with increased stratification. But, the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quantitative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the coevolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: (i) surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; (ii) high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were probably met, for the first time, during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.

Optimal public rationing and price response.

We study optimal public health care rationing and private sector price responses. Consumers differ in their wealth and illness severity (defined as treatment cost). Due to a limited budget, some consumers must be rationed. Rationed consumers may purchase from a monopolistic private market. We consider two information regimes. In the first, the public supplier rations consumers according to their wealth information (means testing). In equilibrium, the public supplier must ration both rich and poor consumers. Rationing some poor consumers implements price reduction in the private market. In the second information regime, the public supplier rations consumers according to consumers' wealth and cost information. In equilibrium, consumers are allocated the good if and only if their costs are below a threshold (cost effectiveness). Rationing based on cost results in higher equilibrium consumer surplus than rationing based on wealth.

The optimal dividend barrier in the Gamma-Omega model

In the traditional actuarial risk model, if the surplus is negative, the company is ruined and has to go out of business. In this paper we distinguish between ruin (negative surplus) and bankruptcy (going out of business), where the probability of bankruptcy is a function of the level of negative surplus. The idea for this notion of bankruptcy comes from the observation that in some industries, companies can continue doing business even though they are technically ruined. Assuming that dividends can only be paid with a certain probability at each point of time, we derive closed-form formulas for the expected discounted dividends until bankruptcy under a barrier strategy. Subsequently, the optimal barrier is determined, and several explicit identities for the optimal value are found. The surplus process of the company is modeled by a Wiener process (Brownian motion).

Variations pondérales dans un contexte d'hyperthyroïdie

Introduction :¦L'hyperthyroïdie est la dysfonction thyroïdienne la plus fréquemment symptomatique et diagnostiquée. Son étiologie la plus fréquente chez l'adulte est la maladie de Basedow. Dans sa pratique le médecin se concentre sur les variables spécifiques à la maladie qui sont liées à une augmentation de la mortalité chez les patients. D'autres variables, comme la perte de poids accompagnant la maladie et le risque de reprise de ce poids suite au traitement, semblent peu prises en compte. Ce travail est une étude rétrospective¦portant sur 31 patients hyperthyroïdiens suivis ambulatoirement dans le service d'endocrinologie, diabétologie et métabolisme (EDM) du centre hospitalier universitaire vaudois (CHUV) durant 18 à 24 mois.¦Objectifs :¦Déterminer la variation de poids chez ces patients, la relation qui existe entre l'évolution des résultats des examens de laboratoire et la variation de poids, évaluer les facteurs de risque pour une prise pondérale excessive suite au traitement et comparer la variation de poids en fonction du poids de forme.¦Limites :¦Le caractère rétrospectif de l'étude, le petit nombre de patients inclus le fait que les statistiques n'ont pas été réalisées par un statisticien expérimenté limitent l'interprétation des résultats.¦Résultats et discussion :¦Il existe une perte de poids accompagnant un épisode inaugural dans 71% des cas. Les patients ont tendance à prendre du poids suite au traitement (médiane : + 7.3 kg). Le poids pris consiste en une compensation du poids perdu avant le diagnostic, avec un surplus de reprise pondérale (médiane : + 0.150 kg). Le poids de forme manque dans 41.9% des cas. Après 18 à 24 mois de suivi, la catégorie d'IMC dans¦laquelle les patients se trouvent correspond dans 73.3% des cas à la catégorie d'IMC de forme. Ni le sexe ni l'âge influencent la variation pondérale initiale (sexe : p=0.429 ; âge : p=0.241). L'importance de la perturbation des concentrations hormonales n'influe pas sur l'importance de la perte pondérale au diagnostic (TSH : R2=0.001 ; T4l : R2=0.0037). Les patients avec 6 symptômes et plus présents au moment du diagnostic ont tendance à avoir une T4 libre plus élevée (médiane : 51.26 pmol/l) que ceux qui ont moins de 6 symptômes (médiane : 40.00 pmol/l). Des facteurs prédisposants à un surplus de reprise n'ont¦pas pu être déterminés, mais des tendances peuvent être décrites. Une sur-correction iatrogène¦de l'hyperthyroïdie, avec un passage en hypothyroïdie après 18-24 mois de suivi est possiblement liée à une reprise de poids nette élevée. La reprise de poids est moindre si un suivi diététique a eu lieu (médiane : 0 kg versus 1.8 kg sans suivi diététique).

Vertical Syndication-Proof Competitive Prices in Multilateral Markets

[eng] A multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment game (Tejada, to appear) is a model for a multilateral market with a finite number of perfectly complementary indivisible commodities owned by different sellers, and inflexible demand and support functions. We show that for each such market game there is a unique vector of competitive prices for the commodities that is vertical syndication-proof, in the sense that, at those prices, syndication of sellers each owning a different commodity is neither beneficial nor detrimental for the buyers. Since, moreover, the benefits obtained by the agents at those prices correspond to the nucleolus of the market game, we provide a syndication-based foundation for the nucleolus as an appropriate solution concept for market games. For different solution concepts a syndicate can be disadvantageous and there is no escape to Aumman’s paradox (Aumann, 1973). We further show that vertical syndicationproofness and horizontal syndication-proofness – in which sellers of the same commodity collude – are incompatible requirements under some mild assumptions. Our results build on a self-interesting link between multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and bankruptcy games (O’Neill, 1982). We identify a particular subset of Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and we show that it is isomorphic to the whole class of bankruptcy games. This isomorphism enables us to show the uniqueness of the vector of vertical syndication-proof prices for the whole class of Böhm-Bawerk assignment market using well-known results of bankruptcy problems.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Auction theory, sequential local service privatization, and the effects of geographical scale economies on effective competition

A sequential weakly efficient two-auction game with entry costs, interdependence between objects, two potential bidders and IPV assumption is presented here in order to give some theoretical predictions on the effects of geographical scale economies on local service privatization performance. It is shown that the first object seller takes profit of this interdependence. The interdependence externality rises effective competition for the first object, expressed as the probability of having more than one final bidder. Besides, if there is more than one final bidder in the first auction, seller extracts the entire bidder¿s expected future surplus differential between having won the first auction and having lost. Consequences for second object seller are less clear, reflecting the contradictory nature of the two main effects of object interdependence. On the one hand, first auction winner becomes ¿stronger¿, so that expected payments rise in a competitive environment. On the other hand, first auction loser becomes relatively ¿weaker¿, hence (probably) reducing effective competition for the second object. Additionally, some contributions to static auction theory with entry cost and asymmetric bidders are presented in the appendix

Objetivo: cuantificar la reproducción

Se estudian en este trabajo algunas magnitudes relacionadas con el enfoque de la reproducción social. Ante todo se hace hincapié en tres ideas fundamentales, las nociones de: a) Salidas menos entradas; b) Salidas dividido por entradas; c) Subsistemas. A continuación se subrayan los obstáculos para la cuantificación directa de estos conceptos, y se repasan las vías sugeridas para sortear las dificultades (por medio de constructos teóricos propuestos por Leontief, von Neumann y Sraffa). Luego se examinan dos nuevos indicadores: la ¿tasaespecífica de excedente¿, que se refiere a los bienes autorreproducibles, y el ¿coeficiente neto de reproducción¿, que se predica de todos los bienes básicos. De pasada se apuntan algunas pistas para establecer indicadores del mismogénero en campos como la economía ecológica y la economía feminista. Por último, se anotan algunas conjeturas relacionadas con la dirección adecuada del cambio técnico

2009 Iowa’s Rail System Background Prepared by the Office of Systems Planning December 2010

Iowa’s Rail Environment Iowa’s rail transportation system provides both freight and passenger service. Rail serves a variety of trips, including those within Iowa and those to other states as well as to foreign markets. While rail competes with other modes, it also cooperates with those modes to provide intermodal services to Iowans. In 2009 Iowa’s rail transportation system could be described as follows: Freight Iowa’s 130,000-mile freight transportation system includes an extensive railroad network, a well-developed highway system, two bordering navigable waterways, and a pipeline network as well as air cargo facilities. While rail accounts for only 3 percent of the freight network, it carries 43 percent of Iowa’s freight tonnage. A great variety of commodities ranging from fresh fish to textiles to optical products are moved by rail. However, most of the Iowa rail shipments consist of bulk commodities, including grain, grain products, coal, ethanol, and fertilizers. The railroad network performs an important role in moving bulk commodities produced and consumed in the state to local processors, livestock feeders, river terminals and ports for foreign export. The railroad’s ability to haul large volumes, long distances at low costs will continue to be a major factor in moving freight and improving the economy of Iowa. Key 2008 Facts • 3,945 miles of track • 18 railroads • 49.5 million tons shipped • 39.7 million tons received • 2 Amtrak routes • 6 Amtrak stations • 66,286 rail passenger rides Key Rail Trends • slightly fewer miles being operated; • railroads serving Iowa has remained the same; • more rail freight traffic; • more tons hauled per car; • higher average rail rates per ton-mile since 2002; • more car and tons hauled per locomotive; and • more ton miles per gallon of fuel consumed. Iowa’s rail system and service has been evolving over time relative to its size, financial conditions, and competition from other modes.

Cyclooxygenase-2 controls energy homeostasis in mice by de novo recruitment of brown adipocytes.

Obesity results from chronic energy surplus and excess lipid storage in white adipose tissue (WAT). In contrast, brown adipose tissue (BAT) efficiently burns lipids through adaptive thermogenesis. Studying mouse models, we show that cyclooxygenase (COX)-2, a rate-limiting enzyme in prostaglandin (PG) synthesis, is a downstream effector of beta-adrenergic signaling in WAT and is required for the induction of BAT in WAT depots. PG shifted the differentiation of defined mesenchymal progenitors toward a brown adipocyte phenotype. Overexpression of COX-2 in WAT induced de novo BAT recruitment in WAT, increased systemic energy expenditure, and protected mice against high-fat diet-induced obesity. Thus, COX-2 appears integral to de novo BAT recruitment, which suggests that the PG pathway regulates systemic energy homeostasis.

Mapping, organic matter mass and water volume of a peatland in Serra do Espinhaço Meridional

Peatlands form in areas where net primary of organic matter production exceeds losses due to the decomposition, leaching or disturbance. Due to their chemical and physical characteristics, bogs can influence water dynamics because they can store large volumes of water in the rainy season and gradually release this water during the other months of the year. In Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil, a peatland in the environmental protection area of Pau-de-Fruta ensures the water supply of 40,000 inhabitants. The hypothesis of this study is that the peat bogs in Pau-de-Fruta act as an environment for carbon storage and a regulator of water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The objective of this study was to estimate the water volume and organic matter mass in this peatland and to study the influence of this environment on the water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The peatland was mapped using 57 transects, at intervals of 100 m. Along all transects, the depth of the peat bog, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates and altitude were recorded every 20 m and used to calculate the area and volume of the peatland. The water volume was estimated, using a method developed in this study, and the mass of organic matter based on samples from 106 profiles. The peatland covered 81.7 hectares (ha), and stored 497,767 m³ of water, representing 83.7 % of the total volume of the peat bog. The total amount of organic matter (OM) was 45,148 t, corresponding to 552 t ha-1 of OM. The peat bog occupies 11.9 % of the area covered by the Córrego das Pedras basin and stores 77.6 % of the annual water surplus, thus controlling the water flow in the basin and consequently regulating the water course.

Sustained antipsychotic effect of metacognitive training in psychosis: a randomized-controlled study.

Persistent psychotic symptoms represent a major challenge for psychiatric care. Basic research has shown that psychotic symptoms are associated with cognitive biases. Metacognitive training (MCT) aims at helping patients to become aware of these biases and to improve problem-solving. Fifty-two participants fulfilling diagnostic criteria of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders and persistent delusions and stabilized antipsychotic medication were enrolled in this study. Following baseline assessment patients were randomized either to treatment as usual (TAU) conditions or TAU+MCT. The intervention consisted of eight weekly 1-hour sessions (maximum: 8 hours). Participants were assessed at 8 weeks and 6-months later by blind assessors. Participants were assessed with the Psychotic Symptoms Rating Scales (PSYRATS) and the positive subscale of the PANSS. Between-group differences in post- and pre-test values were significant at a medium effect size in favor of the MCT for the PSYRATS delusion scale and the positive scale of the PANSS both at post and follow-up. The results of this study indicate that MCT training has a surplus antipsychotic effect for patients suffering from schizophrenia-related disorders who demonstrate only a partial response to antipsychotic treatment and that the effect of the intervention persists for at least 6 months after the intervention.

Part I. Iowa Railroad Investment Plan, 2009

The 2009 Iowa Railroad System Plan details the state’s role in providing and preserving adequate, safe and efficient rail transportation services to Iowans. The plan is intended to serve as a guide for decision makers and provides a basis for future Iowa DOT policy, funding priorities and programming decisions that affect rail transportation service in Iowa. The primary purpose of the 2009 Iowa Railroad System Plan is to guide the Iowa DOT in pursuing actions that maintain and improve railroad transportation in Iowa. The plan is a component of the Iowa Statewide Transportation Plan known as “Iowa in Motion.” This plan considers railroads from an intermodal perspective. Many commodities that move by rail also move by other modes (principally trucks) during part of their journey from origin to destination. The same is true of persons who use rail passenger service to make trips and who must also rely on other modes to access rail service. Therefore, railroads are part of larger intermodal freight and passenger transportation systems.

Vertical Syndication-Proof Competitive Prices in Multilateral Markets

[eng] A multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment game (Tejada, to appear) is a model for a multilateral market with a finite number of perfectly complementary indivisible commodities owned by different sellers, and inflexible demand and support functions. We show that for each such market game there is a unique vector of competitive prices for the commodities that is vertical syndication-proof, in the sense that, at those prices, syndication of sellers each owning a different commodity is neither beneficial nor detrimental for the buyers. Since, moreover, the benefits obtained by the agents at those prices correspond to the nucleolus of the market game, we provide a syndication-based foundation for the nucleolus as an appropriate solution concept for market games. For different solution concepts a syndicate can be disadvantageous and there is no escape to Aumman’s paradox (Aumann, 1973). We further show that vertical syndicationproofness and horizontal syndication-proofness – in which sellers of the same commodity collude – are incompatible requirements under some mild assumptions. Our results build on a self-interesting link between multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and bankruptcy games (O’Neill, 1982). We identify a particular subset of Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and we show that it is isomorphic to the whole class of bankruptcy games. This isomorphism enables us to show the uniqueness of the vector of vertical syndication-proof prices for the whole class of Böhm-Bawerk assignment market using well-known results of bankruptcy problems.

Occurrence of patulin in organic and conventional apple juice. Risk assessment

Organic foods are promoted as environmentally friendly and its consumption has become increasingly popular. Nevertheless,organic farming practices could produce commodities more susceptible to fungal attack and as a result, food with higher levels of mycotoxins. Patulin is a mycotoxin mainly present in apples and apple-based products. In this paper, we report our recent results and an update of the patulin occurrence and their risk in conventional and organic apple juices around Europe.