A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation

‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.

Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

Cerebrospinal fluid antimicroglial antibodies in Alzheimer disease: a putative marker of an ongoing inflammatory process.

Immunocompetent microglia play an important role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Antimicroglial antibodies in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in clinically diagnosed AD patients have been previously recorded. Here, we report the results of the analysis of the CSF from 38 autopsy cases: 7 with definite AD; 14 with mild and 10 with moderate Alzheimer's type pathology; and 7 controls. Antimicroglial antibodies were identified in 70% of patients with definite AD, in 80% of patients with moderate and in 28% of patients with mild Alzheimer's type pathology. CSF antimicroglial antibodies were not observed in any of the control cases. The results show that CSF antimicroglial antibodies are present in the majority of patients with definite AD and also in cases with moderate Alzheimer's type changes. They may also indicate dysregulation of microglial function. Together with previous observations, these findings indicate that compromised immune defense mechanisms play an important role in the pathogenesis of AD.

The Monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

'Modern' Phillips Curves and the Implications For The Statistical Process of Inflation

'Modern' theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated process. This paper explains this implication and why these 'modern' theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation.

Reforms of the pre-graduate curriculum for medical students: the Bologna process and beyond.

For several years, all five medical faculties of Switzerland have embarked on a reform of their training curricula for two reasons: first, according to a new federal act issued in 2006 by the administration of the confederation, faculties needed to meet international standards in terms of content and pedagogic approaches; second, all Swiss universities and thus all medical faculties had to adapt the structure of their curriculum to the frame and principles which govern the Bologna process. This process is the result of the Bologna Declaration of June 1999 which proposes and requires a series of reforms to make European Higher Education more compatible and comparable, more competitive and more attractive for Europeans students. The present paper reviews some of the results achieved in the field, focusing on several issues such as the shortage of physicians and primary care practitioners, the importance of public health, community medicine and medical humanities, and the implementation of new training approaches including e-learning and simulation. In the future, faculties should work on several specific challenges such as: students' mobility, the improvement of students' autonomy and critical thinking as well as their generic and specific skills and finally a reflection on how to improve the attractiveness of the academic career, for physicians of both sexes.

Macrophages induce neutrophil apoptosis through membrane TNF, a process amplified by Leishmania major.

Neutrophils are recruited to the site of parasite inoculation within a few hours of infection with the protozoan parasite Leishmania major. In C57BL/6 mice, which are resistant to infection, neutrophils are cleared from the site of s.c. infection within 3 days, whereas they persist for at least 10 days in susceptible BALB/c mice. In the present study, we investigated the role of macrophages (MPhi) in regulating neutrophil number. Inflammatory cells were recruited by i.p. injection of either 2% starch or L. major promastigotes. Neutrophils were isolated and cultured in the presence of increasing numbers of MPhi. Extent of neutrophil apoptosis positively correlated with the number of MPhi added. This process was strictly dependent on TNF because MPhi from TNF-deficient mice failed to induce neutrophil apoptosis. Assays using MPhi derived from membrane TNF knock-in mice or cultures in Transwell chambers revealed that contact with MPhi was necessary to induce neutrophil apoptosis, a process requiring expression of membrane TNF. L. major was shown to exacerbate MPhi-induced apoptosis of neutrophils, but BALB/c MPhi were not as potent as C57BL/6 MPhi in this induction. Our results emphasize the importance of MPhi-induced neutrophil apoptosis, and membrane TNF in the early control of inflammation.

Analysing the innovation process in the EU Integrated Programme, ISAFRUIT

ISAFRUIT is an integrated European Union Project focussed on increasing fruit consumption as a means to improve human health, through evaluating the fruit chain and addressing bottlenecks therein.The innovations which are being developed throughout the ISAFRUIT Project have been analysed to determine both the success factors and the obstacles in reaching the commercialisation stage. Only 9.58% of the deliverables planned within the Project were focussed on developing technological innovations.There is evidence, however, of successes in the development of new innovations arising from the ISAFRUIT Project, with several other potential innovations in the pipeline. Of the technologies identified, 67% are still at the “invention stage”; that is, the stage prior to bridging the so-called “valley of death”, the stage between an invention and an innovation. Those which are considered to have moved over the “valley of death” either had industry partners included in the Project, or had consulted with industry to ensure that the technology was relevant, or met a recognised industry need. Many of the technologies which made less progress did not have the same interactions with industry. A number of other issues were identified which prevented further progress towards innovation. The need for scientists to publish scientific papers, both for their career pathways and to increase their chances of future funding, was identified as one issue, although the filing of patents is now becoming more accepted and recognised. The patenting system is considered complex by many scientists and is not well-understood. Finally, agreements between partners on the sharing of intellectual property rights can cause a delay in the innovation process.