Technical Note: Assessing a 24/7 solution for monitoring water quality loads in small river catchments

Quantifying nutrient and sediment loads in catchments is dif?cult owing to diffuse controls related to storm hydrology. Coarse sampling and interpolation methods are prone to very high uncertainties due to under-representation of high discharge, short duration events. Additionally, important low-?ow processes such as diurnal signals linked to point source impacts are missed. Here we demonstrate a solution based on a time-integrated approach to sampling with a standard 24 bottle autosampler con?gured to take a sample every 7 h over a week according to a Plynlimon design. This is evaluated with a number of other sampling strategies using a two-year dataset of sub-hourly discharge and phosphorus concentration data. The 24/7 solution is shown to be among the least uncertain in estimating load (inter-quartile range: 96% to 110% of actual load in year 1 and 97% to 104% in year 2) due to the increased frequency raising the probability of sampling storm events and point source signals. The 24/7 solution would appear to be most parsimonious in terms of data coverage and certainty, process signal representation, potential laboratory commitment, technology requirements and the ability to be widely deployed in complex catchments.

Abatement technologies for road surface run-off

Heavy metals, primarily zinc, copper, lead, and chromium, and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the main hazardous constituents of road runoff. The main sources of these contaminants are vehicle emission, mostly through wear and leakage, although erosion of the road surface and de-icing salts are also recognised pollution sources. The bioavailability of these toxic compounds, and more importantly their potential biomagnification along food chains, could affect aquatic communities persistently exposed to road runoff. Several internationally approved abatement technologies are available for the management of road runoff on new motorway schemes. Recent studies conducted in Cork and Dublin, Ireland demonstrated the efficacy of infiltration trenches as abatement technologies in the removal of both heavy metals and PAHs prior to discharge; the technology was however inefficient in mitigating first flush events. Gully traps with sedimentation chambers, another technology investigated, demonstrated to have a substantially lower removal potential but appeared to be more effective in attenuating surges of contaminants attributed to first flush events. Consequently the employment of combined abatement techniques could efficiently minimise deviations from required effluent concentrations. The studies determined a relatively stationary accumulation of heavy metals and PAHs in sediments close to the point of discharge with a rapid decline in concentration in nearby downstream sediments (<50m). Further, Microtox® Solid Phase testing reported a negligible impact on assemblages exposed to contaminated sediments for all sites investigated. This paper describes pollutant loading from road runoff and mitigation measures from a freshwater deterioration in a water quality perspective. The results and analysis of field samples collected adjacent to a number of roads and motorways in Ireland is also presented. Finally sustainable drainage systems, abatement techniques and technologies available for onsite treatment of runoff are presented to improve and mitigate impacts of vehicular transport on the environment.

Unsteady Gas Dynamic Engine Simulation

This paper provides an overview of the basic theory underlying 1D unsteady gas dynamics, the computational method developed at Queen’s University Belfast (QUB), the use of CFD as an alternative and some experimental results that demonstrate the techniques used to develop the mathematical models.

Micro-organic compounds in the Humber rivers

The concentrations of a range of micro-organic compounds in the Humber rivers have been measured at weekly intervals over a period of 1 year. The compounds include the triazine herbicides (simazine, atrazine, propazine, desmetryn and prometryn), selected organophosphorus insecticides (fenitrothion, malathion and parathion), phenylurea (chlorotoluron, diuron, isoproturon and linuron) and phenoxyacid herbicides (2,4-D, MCPA, MCPB and mecoprop), phenol derivatives (phenol, 2-ethylphenol, 2-chlorophenol, 4-nitrophenol, 2-methylphenol, 4-ethylphenol and 2,4-dichlorophenol), organochlorine insecticides (HEOD, DDT, TDE, DDE, HCB, alpha-BHC and lindane), PCB's and some synthetic pyrethroid insecticides (cis/trans-permethrin, fenvalerate and cypermethrin). The results indicate the high frequency of occurrence of many compounds in the southern Humber rivers Aire, Calder, Trent and Don compared with the more occasional concentrations found in the upland rivers with catchments dominated by low intensity agriculture. The more water soluble herbicides, atrazine, simazine, isoproturon and diuron are detected frequently in the southern rivers with the highest concentrations and abundance in the rivers Aire, Calder and Trent. The most abundant phenolic compound is 2,4-dichlorophenol usually occurring at concentrations <1 mu g/l. The organochlorine insecticides and PCB's are generally at concentrations <0.01 mu g/l, cis/trans-permethrin are the only synthetic pyrethroids detected and these are found in the rivers Aire and Calder at about equal concentrations of between 0.01 and 0.11 mu g/l. The results of the occurrence of simazine and atrazine in the rivers Trent, Don and Aire illustrate peaks in concentration in the spring and then later in the year during the early autumn coinciding with the first major storm after the summer. In the rivers Trent and Don, the annual exports (March 1994-95) of atrazine are lower than for simazine whereas in the R. Calder the yield of atrazine is higher than for simazine suggesting differences in use in these catchments. The maximum triazine concentration observed, i.e. 8 mu g/l of atrazine in the R. Calder, could have inhibiting effects on the phytoplankton and algal growth, although because of the transient nature of the peaks, recovery is expected to be rapid. The only other compounds measured at concentrations likely to produce detrimental ecotoxicological effects are cis/trans permethrin in the rivers Aire and Calder. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Field and Laboratory Tests of Flow-Proportional Passive Samplers for Determining Average Phosphorus and Nitrogen Concentration in Rivers

Flow responsive passive samplers offer considerable potential in nutrient monitoring in catchments; bridging the gap between the intermittency of grab sampling and the high cost of automated monitoring systems. A commercially available passive sampler was evaluated in a number of river systems encapsulating a gradient in storm response, combinations of diffuse and point source pressures, and levels of phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations. Phosphorus and nitrogen are sequestered to a resin matrix in a permeable cartridge positioned in line with streamflow. A salt tracer dissolves in proportion to advective flow through the cartridge. Multiple deployments of different cartridge types were undertaken and the recovery of P and N compared with the flow-weighted mean concentration (FWMC) from high-resolution bank-side analysers at each site. Results from the passive samplers were variable and largely underestimated the FWMC derived from the bank-side analysers. Laboratory tests using ambient river samples indicated good replication of advective throughflow using pumped water, although this appeared not to be a good analogue of river conditions where flow divergence was possible. Laboratory tests also showed good nutrient retention but not elution and these issues appeared to combine to limit the utility in ambient river systems at the small catchment scale.

Dietary Restriction Induced Longevity is Mediated by Nuclear Receptor NHR-62 in Caenorhabditis elegans

Dietary restriction (DR) extends lifespan in a wide variety of species, yet the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here we show that the C. elegans HNF4a- related nuclear hormone receptor NHR-62 is required for metabolic and physiologic responses associated with DR-induced longevity. nhr-62 mediates the longevity of eat- 2 mutants, a genetic mimetic of dietary restriction, and blunts the longevity response of DR induced by bacterial food dilution at low nutrient levels. Metabolic changes associated with DR, including decreased Oil Red O staining, increased autophagy, and changes in fatty acid composition are partly reversed by mutation of nhr-62. Expression profiles reveal that several hundred genes induced by DR depend on the activity of NHR-62, including a putative lipase required for the DR response. This study provides critical evidence that nuclear hormone receptors regulate the DR response, suggesting hormonal and metabolic control of life span.

Linking watershed terrain and hydrology to soil chemical properties, microbial communities and impacts on soil organic C in a humid mid-latitude forested watershed

Understanding the response of humid mid-latitude forests to changes in precipitation, temperature, nutrient cycling, and disturbance is critical to improving our predictive understanding of changes in the surface-subsurface energy balance due to climate change. Mechanistic understanding of the effects of long-term and transient moisture conditions are needed to quantify
linkages between changing redox conditions, microbial activity, and soil mineral and nutrient interactions on C cycling and greenhouse gas releases. To illuminate relationships between the soil chemistry, microbial communities and organic C we established transects across hydraulic and topographic gradients in a small watershed with transient moisture conditions. Valley bottoms tend to be more frequently saturated than ridge tops and side slopes which generally are only saturated when shallow storm flow zones are active. Fifty shallow (~36”) soil cores were collected during timeframes representative of low CO2, soil winter conditions and high CO2, soil summer conditions. Cores were subdivided into 240 samples based on pedology and analyses of the geochemical (moisture content, metals, pH, Fe species, N, C, CEC, AEC) and microbial (16S rRNA gene
amplification with Illumina MiSeq sequencing) characteristics were conducted and correlated to watershed terrain and hydrology. To associate microbial metabolic activity with greenhouse gas emissions we installed 17 soil gas probes, collected gas samples for 16 months and analyzed them for CO2 and other fixed and greenhouse gasses. Parallel to the experimental efforts our data is being used to support hydrobiogeochemical process modeling by coupling the Community Land Model (CLM) with a subsurface process model (PFLOTRAN) to simulate processes and interactions from the molecular to watershed scales. Including above ground processes (biogeophysics, hydrology, and vegetation dynamics), CLM provides mechanistic water, energy, and organic matter inputs to the surface/subsurface models, in which coupled biogeochemical reaction
networks are used to improve the representation of below-ground processes. Preliminary results suggest that inclusion of above ground processes from CLM greatly improves the prediction of moisture response and water cycle at the watershed scale.

Heating Mechanisms for Intermittent Loops in Active Region Cores from AIA/SDO EUV Observations

We investigate intensity variations and energy deposition in five coronal loops in active region cores. These were selected for their strong variability in the AIA/SDO 94 Å intensity channel. We isolate the hot Fe XVIII and Fe XXI components of the 94 Å and 131 Å by modeling and subtracting the "warm" contributions to the emission. HMI/SDO data allow us to focus on "inter-moss" regions in the loops. The detailed evolution of the inter-moss intensity time series reveals loops that are impulsively heated in a mode compatible with a nanoflare storm, with a spike in the hot 131 Å signals leading and the other five EUV emission channels following in progressive cooling order. A sharp increase in electron temperature tends to follow closely after the hot 131 Å signal confirming the impulsive nature of the process. A cooler process of growing emission measure follows more slowly. The Fourier power spectra of the hot 131 Å signals, when averaged over the five loops, present three scaling regimes with break frequencies near 0.1 min–1 and 0.7 min–1. The low frequency regime corresponds to 1/f noise; the intermediate indicates a persistent scaling process and the high frequencies show white noise. Very similar results are found for the energy dissipation in a 2D "hybrid" shell model of loop magneto-turbulence, based on reduced magnetohydrodynamics, that is compatible with nanoflare statistics. We suggest that such turbulent dissipation is the energy source for our loops

The Environmental Fate of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in western Taiwan and coastal waters: evaluation with a fugacity based model

The environmental fate of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), a group of flame retardants that are considered to be persistent organic pollutants (POPs), around the Zhuoshui River and Changhua County regions of Taiwan was assessed. An investigation into emissions, partitioning, and fate of selected PBDEs was conducted based on the equilibrium constant (EQC) fugacity model developed at Trent University, Canada. Emissions for congeners PBDE 47, PBDE 99, and PBDE 209 to air (4.9–92 × 10−3 kg/h), soil (0.91–17.4 × 10−3 kg/h), and water (0.21–4.04 × 10−3 kg/h), were estimated by modifying previous models on PBDE emission rates by considering both industrial and domestic rates. It was found that fugacity modeling can give a reasonable estimation of the behavior, partitioning, and concentrations of PBDE congeners in and around Taiwan. Results indicate that PBDE congeners have a high affinity for partitioning into sediments then soils. As congener number decreases, the PBDEs then partition more readily into air. As the degree of bromination increases, congeners more readily partition to sediments. Sediments may then act as a long-term source of PBDEs which can be released back into the water column due to resuspension during storm events.

Analysing Web-Orchestrations Under Stress Using Uncertainty Profiles

An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation that invokes a number of remote services. In practice, the responsiveness of a web-service fluctuates with demand; during surges in activity service responsiveness may be degraded, perhaps even to the point of failure. An uncertainty profile formalizes a user's perception of the effects of stress on an orchestration of web-services; it describes a strategic situation, modelled by a zero-sum angel–daemon game. Stressed web-service scenarios are analysed, using game theory, in a realistic way, lying between over-optimism (services are entirely reliable) and over-pessimism (all services are broken). The ‘resilience’ of an uncertainty profile can be assessed using the valuation of its associated zero-sum game. In order to demonstrate the validity of the approach, we consider two measures of resilience and a number of different stress models. It is shown how (i) uncertainty profiles can be ordered by risk (as measured by game valuations) and (ii) the structural properties of risk partial orders can be analysed.

Divergent androgen regulation of unfolded protein response pathways drives prostate cancer

The unfolded protein response (UPR) is a homeostatic mechanism to maintain endoplasmic reticulum (ER) function. The UPR is activated by various physiological conditions as well as in disease states, such as cancer. As androgens regulate secretion and development of the normal prostate and drive prostate cancer (PCa) growth, they may affect UPR pathways. Here, we show that the canonical UPR pathways are directly and divergently regulated by androgens in PCa cells, through the androgen receptor (AR), which is critical for PCa survival. AR bound to gene regulatory sites and activated the IRE1α branch, but simultaneously inhibited PERK signaling. Inhibition of the IRE1α arm profoundly reduced PCa cell growth in vitro as well as tumor formation in preclinical models of PCa in vivo. Consistently, AR and UPR gene expression were correlated in human PCa, and spliced XBP-1 expression was significantly upregulated in cancer compared with normal prostate. These data establish a genetic switch orchestrated by AR that divergently regulates the UPR pathways and suggest that targeting IRE1α signaling may have therapeutic utility in PCa.

Synapsin- and actin-dependent frequency enhancement in mouse hippocampal mossy fiber synapses

The synapsin proteins have different roles in excitatory and inhibitory synaptic terminals. We demonstrate a differential role between types of excitatory terminals. Structural and functional aspects of the hippocampal mossy fiber (MF) synapses were studied in wild-type (WT) mice and in synapsin double-knockout mice (DKO). A severe reduction in the number of synaptic vesicles situated more than 100 nm away from the presynaptic membrane active zone was found in the synapsin DKO animals. The ultrastructural level gave concomitant reduction in F-actin immunoreactivity observed at the periactive endocytic zone of the MF terminals. Frequency facilitation was normal in synapsin DKO mice at low firing rates (approximately 0.1 Hz) but was impaired at firing rates within the physiological range (approximately 2 Hz). Synapses made by associational/commissural fibers showed comparatively small frequency facilitation at the same frequencies. Synapsin-dependent facilitation in MF synapses of WT mice was attenuated by blocking F-actin polymerization with cytochalasin B in hippocampal slices. Synapsin III, selectively seen in MF synapses, is enriched specifically in the area adjacent to the synaptic cleft. This may underlie the ability of synapsin III to promote synaptic depression, contributing to the reduced frequency facilitation observed in the absence of synapsins I and II.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control.

METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease.

INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems.

Computing probable maximum loss in catastrophe reinsurance portfolios on multi-core and many-core architectures

In the reinsurance market, the risks natural catastrophes pose to portfolios of properties must be quantified, so that they can be priced, and insurance offered. The analysis of such risks at a portfolio level requires a simulation of up to 800 000 trials with an average of 1000 catastrophic events per trial. This is sufficient to capture risk for a global multi-peril reinsurance portfolio covering a range of perils including earthquake, hurricane, tornado, hail, severe thunderstorm, wind storm, storm surge and riverine flooding, and wildfire. Such simulations are both computation and data intensive, making the application of high-performance computing techniques desirable.

In this paper, we explore the design and implementation of portfolio risk analysis on both multi-core and many-core computing platforms. Given a portfolio of property catastrophe insurance treaties, key risk measures, such as probable maximum loss, are computed by taking both primary and secondary uncertainties into account. Primary uncertainty is associated with whether or not an event occurs in a simulated year, while secondary uncertainty captures the uncertainty in the level of loss due to the use of simplified physical models and limitations in the available data. A combination of fast lookup structures, multi-threading and careful hand tuning of numerical operations is required to achieve good performance. Experimental results are reported for multi-core processors and systems using NVIDIA graphics processing unit and Intel Phi many-core accelerators.