Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

SPRING DISCHARGE MONITORING IN LOW-RESOURCE SETTINGS: A CASE STUDY OF CONCEPCIÓN CHIQUIRICHAPA, GUATEMALA

Water springs are the principal source of water for many localities in Central America, including the municipality of Concepción Chiquirichapa in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Long-term monitoring records are critical for informed water management as well as resource forecasting, though data are scarce and monitoring in low-resource settings presents special challenges. Spring discharge was monitored monthly in six municipal springs during the author’s Peace Corps assignment, from May 2011 to March 2012, and water level height was monitored in two spring boxes over the same time period using automated water-level loggers. The intention of this approach was to circumvent the need for frequent and time-intensive manual measurement by identifying a fixed relationship between discharge and water level. No such relationship was identified, but the water level record reveals that spring yield increased for four months following Tropical Depression 12E in October 2011. This suggests that the relationship between extreme precipitation events and long-term water spring yields in Concepción should be examined further. These limited discharge data also indicate that aquifer baseflow recession and catchment water balance could be successfully characterized if a long-term discharge record were established. This study also presents technical and social considerations for selecting a methodology for spring discharge measurement and highlights the importance of local interest in conducting successful community-based research in intercultural low-resource settings.

Integration of Year-round Forage Management Systems for Spring-calving and Fall-calving Beef Cows (A Progress Report)

Animal production, hay production and feeding, winter forage composition changes, and summer pasture yields and nutrient composition of a year-round grazing system for spring-calving and fall-calving cows were compared to those of a conventional, minimal land system. Cows in the year-round and minimal land systems grazed forage from smooth bromegrassorchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil (SB-O-T) pastures at 1.67 and 3.33 acres, respectively, per cow in the summer. During the summer, SB-O-T pastures in the year-round grazing system also were grazed by stockers at 1.67 stockers per acre, and spring-calving and fall-calving cows grazed smooth bromegrass–red clover (SB-RC) and endophyte-free tall fescue–red clover (TF-RC) at 2.5 acres per cow for approximately 45 days in midsummer. In the year-round grazing system, spring-calving cows grazed corn crop residues at 2.5 acres per cow and stockpiled SB-RC pastures at 2.5 acres per cow; fallcalving cows grazed stockpiled TF-RC pastures at 2.5 acres per cow during winter. In the minimal land system, in winter, cows were maintained in a drylot on first-cutting hay harvested from 62.5–75% of the pasture acres during summer. Hay was fed to maintain a body condition score of 5 on a 9-point scale for springcalving cows in both systems and a body condition score of 3 for fall-calving cows in the year-round system. Over 3 years, mean body weights of fall-calving cows in the year-round system did not differ from the body weights of spring-calving cows in either system, but fall-calving cows had higher (P < .05) body condition scores compared to spring-calving cows in either system. There were no differences among all groups of cows in body condition score changes over the winter grazing season (P > .05). During the summer grazing season, fall-calving cows in the year- round system and springcalving cows in the minimal land system gained more body condition and more weight (P < .05) than springcalving cows in the year-round grazing system. Fall calves in the year-round system had higher birth weights, lower weaning weights, and lower average preweaning daily gains compared to either group of spring calves (P < .05). However, there were no significant differences for birth weights, weaning weights, or average pre-weaning daily gains between spring calves in either system over the 3-year experiment (P > .05). The amount of total growing animal production (calves and stockers) per acre for each system did not differ in any year (P > .05). Over the 3-year experiment, 1.9 ton more hay was fed per cow and 1 ton more hay was fed per cow–calf pair in the minimal land system compared to the year-round grazing system (P < .05).

Effects of Pasture Conditions in Spring on Seasonal Forage Productivity

Fifteen beef cow-calf producers in southern Iowa were selected based on locality, management level, historical date of grazing initiation and desire to participate in the project. In 1997 and 1998, all producers kept records of production and economic data using the Integrated Resource Management-Standardized Performance Analysis (IRM-SPA) records program. At the initiation of grazing on each farm in 1997 and 1998, Julian date, degree-days, cumulative precipitation, and soil moisture, phosphorus, and potassium concentrations were determined. Also determined were pH, temperature, and load-bearing capacity; and forage mass, sward height, morphology and dry matter concentration. Over the grazing season, forage production, measured both by cumulative mass and sward height, forage in vitro digestible dry matter concentration, and crude protein concentration were determined monthly. In the fall of 1996 the primary species in pastures on farms used in this project were cool-season grasses, which composed 76% of the live forage whereas legumes and weeds composed 8.3 and 15.3%, respectively. The average number of paddocks was 4.1, reflecting a low intensity rotational stocking system on most farms. The average dates of grazing initiation were May 5 and April 29 in 1997 and 1998, respectively, with standard deviations of 14.8 and 14.1 days. Because the average soil moisture of 23% was dry and did not differ between years, it seems that most producers delayed the initiation of grazing to avoid muddy conditions by initiating grazing at a nearly equal soil moisture. However, Julian date, degree-days, soil temperature and morphology index at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as mass or sward height, in 1998. And forage mass and height at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997. Moreover, the concentrations of digestible dry matter at the initiation of and during the grazing season and the concentrations of crude protein during the grazing season were lower than desired for optimal animal performance. Because the mean seasonal digestible dry matter concentration was negatively related to initial forage mass in 1997 and mean seasonal crude proteins concentrations were negatively related to the Julian date, degree-days, and morphology indeces in both years, it seems that delaying the initiation of grazing until pasture soils are not muddy, is limiting the quality as well as the quantity of pasture forage. In 1997, forage production and digestibility were positively related to the soil phosphorus concentration. Soil potassium concentration was positively related to forage digestibility in 1997 and forage production and crude protein concentration in 1998. Increasing the number of paddocks increased forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997, and forage digestible dry matter concentration in 1998. Increasing yields or the concentrations of digestible dry matter or crude protein of pasture forage reduced the costs of purchased feed per cow.

Integrating the Use of Spring- and Fall-Calving Beef Cows in a Year-round Grazing System (A Progress Report)

Animal production, hay production and feeding, and the yields and composition of forage from summer and winter grass-legume pastures and winter corn crop residue fields from a year-round grazing system were compared with those of a conventional system. The year-round grazing system utilized 1.67 acres of smooth bromegrass-orchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil pasture per cow in the summer, and 1.25 acres of stockpiled tall fescue-red clover pasture per cow, 1.25 acres of stockpiled smooth bromegrass-red clover pasture per cow, and 1.25 acres of corn crop residues per cow during winter for spring- and fall-calving cows and stockers. First-cutting hay was harvested from the tall fescue-red clover and smooth bromegrass-red clover pastures to meet supplemental needs of cows and calves during winter. In the conventional system (called the minimal land system), spring-calving cows grazed smooth bromegrass-orchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil pastures at 3.33 acres/cow during summer with first cutting hay removed from one-half of these acres. This hay was fed to these cows in a drylot during winter. All summer grazing was done by rotational stocking for both systems, and winter grazing of the corn crop residues and stockpiled forages for pregnant spring-calving cows and lactating fall-calving cows in the year-round system was managed by strip-stocking. Hay was fed to springcalving cows in both systems to maintain a mean body condition score of 5 on a 9-point scale, but was fed to fall-calving cows to maintain a mean body condition score of greater than 3. Over winter, fall-calving cows lost more body weight and condition than spring calving cows, but there were no differences in body weight or condition score change between spring-calving cows in either system. Fall- and spring-calving cows in the yearround grazing system required 934 and 1,395 lb. hay dry matter/cow for maintenance during the winter whereas spring-calving cows in drylot required 4,776 lb. hay dry matter/cow. Rebreeding rates were not affected by management system. Average daily gains of spring-born calves did not differ between systems, but were greater than fall calves. Because of differences in land areas for the two systems, weight production of calves per acre of cows in the minimal land system was greater than those of the year-round grazing system, but when the additional weight gains of the stocker cattle were considered, production of total growing animals did not differ between the two systems.

Evaluation of Year-round Forage Management Systems for Spring- and Fall-Calving Beef Cows (A Progress Report)

A year-round grazing system for spring- and fall-calving cows was developed to compare animal production and performance, hay production and feeding, winter forage composition changes, and summer pasture yield and nutrient composition to that from a conventional, or minimal land system. Systems compared forage from smooth bromegrass-orchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil pastures for both systems in the summer and corn crop residues and stockpiled grass-legume pastures for the year-round system to drylot hay feeding during winter for the minimal land system. The year-round grazing system utilized 1.67 acres of smooth bromegrassorchardgrass- birdsfoot trefoil (SB-O-T) pasture per cow in the summer, compared with 3.33 acres of (SB-O-T) pasture per cow in the control (minimal land) system. In addition to SB-O-T pastures, the year-round grazing system utilized 2.5 acres of tall fescue-red clover (TFRC) and 2.5 acres of smooth bromegrass-red clover (SBRC) per cow for grazing in both mid-summer and winter for fall- and spring-calving cows, respectively. First-cutting hay was harvested from the TF-RC and SB-RC pastures, and regrowth was grazed for approximately 45 days in the summer. These pastures were then fertilized with 40 lbs N/acre and stockpiled for winter grazing. Also utilized during the winter for spring-calving cows in the year-round grazing system were corn crop residue (CCR) pastures at an allowance of 2.5 acres per cow. In the minimal land system, hay was harvested from three-fourths of the area in SB-O-T pastures and stored for feeding in a drylot through the winter. Summer grazing was managed with rotational stocking for both systems, and winter grazing of stockpiled forages and corn crop residues by year-round system cows was managed by strip-stocking. Hay was fed to maintain a body condition score of 5 on a 9 point scale for spring-calving cows in both systems. Hay was supplemented as needed to maintain a body condition score of 3 for fall-calving cows nursing calves through the winter. Although initial condition scores for cows in both systems were different at the initiation of grazing for both winter and summer, there were no significant differences (P > .05) in overall condition score changes throughout both grazing seasons. In year 1, fall-calving cows in the year-round grazing system lost more (P < .05) body weight during winter than spring-calving cows in either system. In year 2, there were no differences seen in weight changes over winter for any group of cows. Average daily gains of fall calves in the yearround system were 1.9 lbs/day compared with weight gains of 2.5 lbs/day for spring calves from both systems. Yearly growing animal production from pastures for both years did not differ between systems when weight gains of stockers that grazed summer pastures in the year-round grazing system were added to weight gains of suckling calves. Carcass characteristics for all calves finished in the feedlot for both systems were similar. There were no significant differences in hay production between systems for year 1; however, amounts of hay needed to maintain cows were 923, 1373, 4732 lbs dry matter/cow for year-round fall-calving, year-round spring-calving, and minimal land spring-calving cows, respectively. In year 2, hay production per acre in the minimal land system was greater (P < .05) than for the year-round system, but the amounts of hay required per cow were 0, 0, and 4720 lbs dry matter/cow for yearround fall-calving, year-round spring-calving, and minimal land spring-calving cows, respectively.

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars: I. Spring sublimation activity and processes

Spring sublimation of the seasonal CO2 northern polar cap is a dynamic process in the current Mars climate. Phenomena include dark fans of dune material propelled out onto the seasonal ice layer, polygonal cracks in the seasonal ice, sand flow down slipfaces, and outbreaks of gas and sand around the dune margins. These phenomena are concentrated on the north polar erg that encircles the northern residual polar cap. The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has been in orbit for three Mars years, allowing us to observe three northern spring seasons. Activity is consistent with and well described by the Kieffer model of basal sublimation of the seasonal layer of ice applied originally in the southern hemisphere. Three typical weak spots have been identified on the dunes for escape of gas sublimed from the bottom of the seasonal ice layer: the crest of the dune, the interface of the dune with the interdune substrate, and through polygonal cracks in the ice. Pressurized gas flows through these vents and carries out material entrained from the dune. Furrows in the dunes channel gas to outbreak points and may be the northern equivalent of southern radially-organized channels ("araneiform" terrain), albeit not permanent. Properties of the seasonal CO2 ice layer are derived from timing of seasonal events such as when final sublimation occurs. Modification of dune morphology shows that landscape evolution is occurring on Mars today, driven by seasonal activity associated with sublimation of the seasonal CO2 polar cap.

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars II: HiRISE photometric analysis of evolution of northern polar dunes in spring

We present an overview of our analyses of HiRISE observations of spring evolution of selected dune areas of the north polar erg. The north polar erg is covered annually by seasonal volatile ice layer, a mixture of CO2 and H2O with mineral dust contamination. In spring, this layer sublimes creating visually enigmatic phenomena, e.g. dark and bright fan-shaped deposits, dark–bright–dark bandings, dark down-slope streaks, and seasonal polygonal cracks. Similar phenomena in southern polar areas are believed to be related to the specific process of solid-state greenhouse effect. In the north, it is currently unclear if the solid-state greenhouse effect is able to explain all the observed phenomena especially because the increased influence of H2O on the time scales of this process has not yet been quantified. HiRISE observations of our selected locations show that the ground exhibits a temporal behaviour similar to the one observed in the southern polar areas: a brightening phase starting close to the spring equinox with a subsequent darkening towards summer solstice. The resolution of HiRISE enabled us to study dunes and substrate individually and even distinguish between different developments on windward and slip face sides of single dunes. Differences in the seasonal evolution between steep slip faces and flatter substrate and windward sides of dunes have been identified and compared to CRISM data of CO2 and H2O distributions on dunes. We also observe small scale dark blotches that appear in early observations and tend to sustain a low reflectivity throughout the spring. These blotches can be regarded as the analogue of dark fan deposits in southern polar areas, leading us to the conclusion that both martian polar areas follow similar spring evolutions.