Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Aggravation of chronic stress effects on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory in LPA₁ receptor knockout mice.

BACKGROUND The lysophosphatidic acid LPA₁ receptor regulates plasticity and neurogenesis in the adult hippocampus. Here, we studied whether absence of the LPA₁ receptor modulated the detrimental effects of chronic stress on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Male LPA₁-null (NULL) and wild-type (WT) mice were assigned to control or chronic stress conditions (21 days of restraint, 3 h/day). Immunohistochemistry for bromodeoxyuridine and endogenous markers was performed to examine hippocampal cell proliferation, survival, number and maturation of young neurons, hippocampal structure and apoptosis in the hippocampus. Corticosterone levels were measured in another a separate cohort of mice. Finally, the hole-board test assessed spatial reference and working memory. Under control conditions, NULL mice showed reduced cell proliferation, a defective population of young neurons, reduced hippocampal volume and moderate spatial memory deficits. However, the primary result is that chronic stress impaired hippocampal neurogenesis in NULLs more severely than in WT mice in terms of cell proliferation; apoptosis; the number and maturation of young neurons; and both the volume and neuronal density in the granular zone. Only stressed NULLs presented hypocortisolemia. Moreover, a dramatic deficit in spatial reference memory consolidation was observed in chronically stressed NULL mice, which was in contrast to the minor effect observed in stressed WT mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These results reveal that the absence of the LPA₁ receptor aggravates the chronic stress-induced impairment to hippocampal neurogenesis and its dependent functions. Thus, modulation of the LPA₁ receptor pathway may be of interest with respect to the treatment of stress-induced hippocampal pathology.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.

Passive lipoidal diffusion and carrier-mediated cell uptake are both important mechanisms of membrane permeation in drug disposition.

Recently, it has been proposed that drug permeation is essentially carrier-mediated only and that passive lipoidal diffusion is negligible. This opposes the prevailing hypothesis of drug permeation through biological membranes, which integrates the contribution of multiple permeation mechanisms, including both carrier-mediated and passive lipoidal diffusion, depending on the compound's properties, membrane properties, and solution properties. The prevailing hypothesis of drug permeation continues to be successful for application and prediction in drug development. Proponents of the carrier-mediated only concept argue against passive lipoidal diffusion. However, the arguments are not supported by broad pharmaceutics literature. The carrier-mediated only concept lacks substantial supporting evidence and successful applications in drug development.

Imagerie de diffusion (DWI) dans la caractérisation de l'échinococcose alvéolaire hépatique.

Objectifs: Etudier l'utilité de DWI dans l'échinococcose alveolaire (EA) hépatique. Matériels et méthodes: Dix-sept patients (10 hommes, âge moyen 64.3) avec 55 lésions hépatiques ont été examinés par IRM. La sémiologie des lésions a été étudiée après classification selon Kodama. Les coefficients apparent de diffusion (ADCmax, ADCmin, ADCtot) ont été mesurés. Résultats: Trois lésions de Kodama de type 1, 13 de type 2, 15 de type 3, 3 de type 4, et 21 de type 5. L'ADCtot des lésions mesurait 1.23±0.18 x 10-3 mm2/s. L'ADCtot de Kodama type 1, 2, 3, 4 et 5 mesuraient 1.97±0.27, 1.66±0.13, 1.73±0.12, 1.15±0.27 et 1.76±0.10 x 10-3 mm2/s, respectivement. Il n'y avait pas de différence significative de l'ADCtot entre les types (p=0.25) hormis le type 4 qui représente une lésion solide (p=0.035). Conclusion: Les valeurs d'ADC des lésions d'EA ne se révèlent pas utiles pour différencier les différents types selon Kodama, hormis pour le type 4 ce qui suggère la présence d'une composante solide. Celles-ci sont relativement basses comparées à d'autres lésions kystiques hépatiques, ce qui peut aider à suggérer le diagnostic.

Spatial learning by rats across visually disconnected environments

Experiments were designed to examine some properties of spatial representations in rats. Adult subjects were trained to escape through a hole at a fixed position in a large circular arena (see Schenk 1989). The experiments were conducted in the dark, with a limited number of controlled visual light cues in order to assess the minimal cue requirement for place learning. Three identical light cues (shape, height and distance from the table) were used. Depending on the condition, they were either permanently on, or alternatively on or off, depending on the position of the rat in the field. Two questions were asked: a) how many identical visual cues were necessary for spatial discrimination in the dark, and b) could rats integrate the relative positions of separate cues, under conditions in which the rat was never allowed to perceive all three cues simultaneously. The results suggest that rats are able to achieve a place discrimination task even if the three cues necessary for efficient orientation can never be seen simultaneously. A dissociation between the discrimination of the spatial position of the goal and the capacity to reach it by a direct path suggests that a reduced number of cues might require prolonged locomotion to allow an accurate orientation in the environment.

Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance in the city of Posadas, northeastern Argentina: variations at different spatial scales

The distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis is heterogeneous with a pattern of high abundance areas (HAAs) embedded in a matrix of low abundance areas (LAAs). The objective of this study was to describe the variability in the abundance of Lu. longipalpis at two different spatial levels and to analyse the relationship between the abundance and multiple environmental variables. Of the environmental variables analysed in each household, the condition that best explained the differences in vector abundance between HAA-LAA was the variable "land_grass", with greater average values in the peridomestic environments within the LAA, and the variables "#sp tree", "#pots" and "dist_water" that were higher in the HAA. Of the environmental variables analysed in the patches, the variable "unpaved_streets" was higher in the LAAs and the variable "prop_inf_dogs" was higher in the HAAs. An understanding of the main environmental variables that influence the vector distribution could contribute to the development of strategies for the prevention and control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). This is the first work in which environmental variables are analysed at the micro-scale in urban areas at the southern edge of the current range of Lu. longipalpis. Our results represent a significant contribution to the understanding of the abundance of the vector in the peridomestic habitats of the region.

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST): a pilot study on the assessment of treatment response in comparison with 18F-FDG PET/CT.

BACKGROUND: Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is increasingly being used for assessing the treatment succes in oncology, but the real clinical value needs to evaluated by comparison with other, already established, metabolic imaging techniques. PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate the clinical potential of diffusion-weighted MRI with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) mapping for gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) response to targeted therapy compared with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Eight patients (mean age, 56 ± 11 years) known to have metastatic GIST underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT and MRI (T1Gd, DWI [b = 50,300,600], ADC mapping) simultaneously, before and after change in targeted therapy. MR and PET/CT examinations were first analyzed blindly. Second, PET/CT images were co-registered with T1Gd-MR images for lesion detection. Only 18F-FDG avid lesions were considered. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and the corresponding minimum ADCmin were measured for the six largest lesions per patient, if any, on baseline and follow-up examinations. The relationship between changes in SUVmax and ADCmin was analyzed (Spearman's correlation). RESULTS: Twenty-four metastases (12 hepatic, 12 extra-hepatic) were compared on PET/CT and MR images. SUVmax decreased from 7.7 ± 8.1 g/mL to 5.5 ± 5.4 g/mL (P = 0.20), while ADCmin increased from 1.2 ± 0.3 × 10(-3)mm(2)/s to 1.5 ± 0.3 × 10(-3)mm(2)/s (P = 0.0002). There was a significant association between changes in SUVmax and ADCmin (rho = - 0.62, P = 0.0014), but not between changes in lesions size (P = 0.40). CONCLUSION: Changes in ADCmin correlated with the response of 18F-FDG avid GIST to targeted therapy. Thus, diffusion-weighted MRI may represent a radiation-free alternative for follow-up treatment for metastatic GIST patients.

Spatial and temporal changes in Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance, a Leishmania infantum vector in an urban area in northeastern Argentina

This study aimed to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Posadas, an urban area located in northeastern Argentina. Data were obtained during the summer of 2007 and 2009 through two entomological surveys of peridomiciles distributed around the city. The abundance distribution pattern for 2009 was computed and compared with the previous pattern obtained in 2007, when the first human visceral leishmaniasis cases were reported in the city. Vector abundance was also examined in relation to micro and macrohabitat characteristics. In 2007 and 2009, Lu. longipalpis was distributed among 41.5% and 31% of the households in the study area, respectively. In both years, the abundance rates at most of the trapping sites were below 30 Lu. longipalpis per trap per night; however, for areas exhibiting 30-60 Lu. longipalpis and more than 60 Lu. longipalpis, the areas increased in both size and number from 2007-2009. Lu. longipalpis was more abundant in areas with a higher tree and bush cover (a macrohabitat characteristic) and in peridomiciles with accumulated unused material (a microhabitat characteristic). These results will help to prioritise and focus control efforts by defining which peridomiciles display a potentially high abundance of Lu. longipalpis.

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

Mapping complex tissue architecture with diffusion spectrum magnetic resonance imaging.

Methods are presented to map complex fiber architectures in tissues by imaging the 3D spectra of tissue water diffusion with MR. First, theoretical considerations show why and under what conditions diffusion contrast is positive. Using this result, spin displacement spectra that are conventionally phase-encoded can be accurately reconstructed by a Fourier transform of the measured signal's modulus. Second, studies of in vitro and in vivo samples demonstrate correspondence between the orientational maxima of the diffusion spectrum and those of the fiber orientation density at each location. In specimens with complex muscular tissue, such as the tongue, diffusion spectrum images show characteristic local heterogeneities of fiber architectures, including angular dispersion and intersection. Cerebral diffusion spectra acquired in normal human subjects resolve known white matter tracts and tract intersections. Finally, the relation between the presented model-free imaging technique and other available diffusion MRI schemes is discussed.