Combined analysis of grey matter voxel-based morphometry and white matter tract-based spatial statistics in late-life bipolar disorder.

Background: Previous magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies in young patients with bipolar disorder indicated the presence of grey matter concentration changes as well as microstructural alterations in white matter in various neocortical areas and the corpus callosum. Whether these structural changes are also present in elderly patients with bipolar disorder with long-lasting clinical evolution remains unclear. Methods: We performed a prospective MRI study of consecutive elderly, euthymic patients with bipolar disorder and healthy, elderly controls. We conducted a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis and a tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) analysis to assess fractional anisotropy and longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity derived by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Results: We included 19 patients with bipolar disorder and 47 controls in our study. Fractional anisotropy was the most sensitive DTI marker and decreased significantly in the ventral part of the corpus callosum in patients with bipolar disorder. Longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity showed no significant between-group differences. Grey matter concentration was reduced in patients with bipolar disorder in the right anterior insula, head of the caudate nucleus, nucleus accumbens, ventral putamen and frontal orbital cortex. Conversely, there was no grey matter concentration or fractional anisotropy increase in any brain region in patients with bipolar disorder compared with controls. Limitations: The major limitation of our study is the small number of patients with bipolar disorder. Conclusion: Our data document the concomitant presence of grey matter concentration decreases in the anterior limbic areas and the reduced fibre tract coherence in the corpus callosum of elderly patients with long-lasting bipolar disorder.

Incomplete markets, labor supply and capital accumulation

In this paper we explore the accumulation of capital in the presence oflimited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, borrowing constraintsand endogenous labor supply. As in the exogenous labor supply case(e.g. Aiyagari 1994, Huggett 1997), we find that steady states arecharacterized with an interest rate smaller than the rate of timepreference. However,wealsofind that when labor supply is endogenous thepresence of uncertainty and a borrowing limit are not enough to giverise to aggregate precautionary savings .

Technology diffusion and the spatial distribution of wages in the US

What explains the spatial distribution of wages across US counties? I find that two of the most important factors are spatial technology diffusion and externalities due to the aggregate scale of production. One empirical finding supporting the importance of spatial technology diffusion is that average wages in a county decrease with the average level of schooling in neighboring counties when employment in the county and average wages in neighboring counties are held constant. All empirical results are obtained using anovel instrument for (endogenous) employment at the county-leveland take into account other factors (e.g. productivity-differencesacross states, climate) that may determine wages.

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affect economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP)and investments. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 93 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it spurs capital accumulation only with some delay and indirectly, since capital follows the rise in productivity. I control for indirect effects of financial globalization through banking crises. Such episodes depress both investments and TFP, though they are triggered by financial integration only to a minor extent. The paper also provides a discussion of a simple model on the effects of financial integration, and shows additional empirical evidence supporting it.

Measuring ecological niche overlap from occurrence and spatial environmental data

1. Aim - Concerns over how global change will influence species distributions, in conjunction with increased emphasis on understanding niche dynamics in evolutionary and community contexts, highlight the growing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences between or within taxa. We propose a statistical framework to describe and compare environmental niches from occurrence and spatial environmental data.¦2. Location - Europe, North America, South America¦3. Methods - The framework applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in gridded environmental space to calculate metrics of niche overlap and test hypotheses regarding niche conservatism. We use this framework and simulated species with predefined distributions and amounts of niche overlap to evaluate several ordination and species distribution modeling techniques for quantifying niche overlap. We illustrate the approach with data on two well-studied invasive species.¦4. Results - We show that niche overlap can be accurately detected with the framework when variables driving the distributions are known. The method is robust to known and previously undocumented biases related to the dependence of species occurrences on the frequency of environmental conditions that occur across geographic space. The use of a kernel smoother makes the process of moving from geographical space to multivariate environmental space independent of both sampling effort and arbitrary choice of resolution in environmental space. However, the use of ordination and species distribution model techniques for selecting, combining and weighting variables on which niche overlap is calculated provide contrasting results.¦5. Main conclusions - The framework meets the increasing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences. It is appropriate to study niche differences between species, subspecies or intraspecific lineages that differ in their geographical distributions. Alternatively, it can be used to measure the degree to which the environmental niche of a species or intraspecific lineage has changed over time.

Seasonal and spatial species richness variation of dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae s. str.) in the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil

The knowledge on Atlantic Forest scarab beetle fauna is quite limited. This biome is strongly degraded and these insects can be used as bioindicators since they are sensitive to forest destruction and show distinct organizational patterns in forest fragments or in areas that have been deteriorated by human activity. Thus, a study of the Scarabaeidae (sensu stricto) dung beetles fauna that inhabit Serra do Japi, São Paulo, Brazil (23º12'-23º22' S and 46º53'-47º03'W) was carried out; the monthly species richness was analyzed in six areas during one year and the vegetation's structural physiognomy was described. The areas included a conserved and a degraded valley, a northward and a southward hillside, a hilltop, and an area of secondary forest growing under eucalyptus trees. The specimens were collected using four pitfall traps baited with human feces, which remained at each spot during 48 hours. Between September, 1997 and August, 1998, 3524 individuals of 39 species were collected; the most abundant were: Canthidium trinodosum, Eurysternus cyanescens, Uroxys kratochvili, Scybalocanthon nigriceps, Uroxys lata, Canthonella sp., Dichotomius assifer, Deltochilum furcatum, Canthidium sp.2, Canthon latipes, Deltochilum rubripenne, Eurysternus sp., and Dichotomius sp.1. The number of individuals and species was greater in the hot, rainy season, when there was a correlation between the number of species and the mean annual temperature [r²= 0.69; p<0.01]. The lower winter richness was most pronounced in the conserved valley, while richness remained relatively constant in the degraded valley; abundance was much higher in the degraded valley. The cluster analysis showed that the valleys and hillsides are the most similar in relation to species composition and abundance, yet different from the secondary forest with eucalypts and the hilltop.

Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Effects of uncertain lifetime and annuity insurance on capital accumulation and growth

This paper studies the effects of uncertain lifetime on capitalaccumulation and growth and also the sensitivity of thoseeffects to the existence of a perfect annuities market. Themodel is an overlapping generations model with uncertainlifetimes. The technology is convex and such that the marginalproduct of capital is bounded away from zero. A contribution ofthis paper is to show that the existence of accidental bequestsmay lead the economy to an equilibrium that exhibits asymptoticgrowth, which is impossible in an economy with a perfect annuitiesmarket or with certain lifetimes. This paper also shows that ifindividuals face a positive probability of surviving in everyperiod, they may be willing to save at any age. This effect ofuncertain lifetime on savings may also lead the economy to anequilibrium exhibiting asymptotic growth even if there exists aperfect annuities market.

Growth accounting in items of turbulence and death: efficiency, technology, capital accumulation and human capital 1929-1950

We employ a non-parametrical approach to growth accounting (Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA) to disentangle the proximate sources of labour productivity growth in 41 nationsbetween 1929 and 1950 by decomposing productivity growth into four components:technological change; efficiency catch-up (movements towards the production frontier),capital accumulation and human capital accumulation. We show that efficiency catch-upgenerally explains productivity growth, whereas technological change and factoraccumulation were limited and distorted by the effects of war. War clearly hamperedefficiency. Moreover, an unbalanced ratio of human capital to physical capital (a gap to thetechnological leader) was crucial for efficiency catching-up.

Tracking individuals shows spatial fidelity is a key regulator of ant social organization.

Ants live in organized societies with a marked division of labor among workers, but little is known about how this division of labor is generated. We used a tracking system to continuously monitor individually tagged workers in six colonies of the ant Camponotus fellah over 41 days. Network analyses of more than 9 million interactions revealed three distinct groups that differ in behavioral repertoires. Each group represents a functional behavioral unit with workers moving from one group to the next as they age. The rate of interactions was much higher within groups than between groups. The precise information on spatial and temporal distribution of all individuals allowed us to calculate the expected rates of within- and between-group interactions. These values suggest that the network of interaction within colonies is primarily mediated by age-induced changes in the spatial location of workers.

Spatial distribution of a spherical gall (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae) on Caryocar brasiliense (Caryocaraceae)

We obtained the first data on spatial distribution of a spherical galling insect (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae) at the Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae) tree level. This work was developed in two pastures in Montes Claros, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The areas studied were: pasture 1 (in activity) and pasture 2 (abandoned pasture = savanna in recovery). We evaluated the distribution of spherical galls in: foliage orientation (slope), among leaves (border and interior of the tree crown), among leaflets (right, central, left), distal, median, and proximal as well as border, central area, and adjacent to the mid leaf vein of the leaflet, and difference between areas in 10 infested trees per area. The smaller number of spherical gall/leaflet was observed in pasture 1 than in pasture 2. More spherical galls were found on the northern in pasture 1, but in the pasture 2, the lower spherical galls were observed on the northeast than other slopes. The average number of spherical galls did not differ statistically among the three leaflets of C. brasiliense in pasture 2. However, in pasture 1, we observed highest number of spherical galls in the central leaflet. More spherical galls were found in the border than interior of the tree crown. The average number of spherical galls did not differ statistically among the longitudinal region on leaflet of C. brasiliense. The spherical gall insect preferred to colonize the leaf margin than the central portion or near mid vein on transversal regions on a leaflet.

Dispersion of natural arsenic in the Malcantone watershed, Southern Switzerland: field evidence for repeated sorption-desorption and oxidation-reduction processes

In recent years, elevated arsenic concentrations have been found in waters and soils of many, countries, often resulting in a health threat for the local population. Switzerland is not an exception and this paper deals with the release and subsequent fate of arsenic in a 200-km(2) mountainous watershed, characterized by crystalline silicate rocks (gneisses, schists, amphibolites) that contain abundant As-bearing sulfide ore deposits, some of which have been mined for iron and gold in the past. Using analytical methods common for mineralogical, ground water and soil studies (XRD, XRF, XAS-XANES and -EXAFS, electron microprobe, extraction, ICP, AAS with hydride generator, ion chromatography), seven different field situations and related dispersion processes of natural arsenic have been studied: (1) release by rock weathering, (2) transport and deposition by water and ice; (3) release of As to the ground and surface water due to increasing pH; (4) accumulation in humic soil horizons; (5) remobilization by reduction in water-saturated soils and stagnant ground waters; (6) remobilization by using P-rich fertilizers or dung and (7) oxidation, precipitation and dilution in surface waters. Comparison of the results with experimental adsorption studies and speciation diagrams from the literature allows us to reconstruct and identify the typical behavior of arsenic in a natural environment under temperate climatic conditions. The main parameters identified are: (a) once liberated from the primary minerals, sorption processes on Fe-oxy-hydroxides dominate over Al-phases, such as Al-hydroxides or clay minerals and limit the As concentrations in the spring and well waters between 20 and 300 mug/l. (b) Precipitation as secondary minerals is limited to the weathering domain, where the As concentrations are still high and not yet too diluted by rain and soils waters. (c) Although neutral and alkaline pH conditions clearly increase the mobility of As, the main factor to mobilize As is a low redox potential (Eh close or below 0 mV), which favors the dissolution of the Fe-oxy-hydroxides on which the As is sorbed. (d) X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) of As in water-logged humic forest soils indicates that the reduction to As III only occurs at the solid-water interface and that the solid contains As as As V (e) A and Bh horizons of humic cambisols can effectively capture As when As-rich waters flow through them. Complex spatial and temporal variation of the various parameters in a watershed results in repeated mobilization and immobilization of As, which continuously transports As from the upper to the lower part of a watershed and ultimately to the ocean. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll distributions and geostrophic estimates on the Peru shelf at 9°S

Estudio del perfil de la plataforma del Peru a los 9°S. Datos colectados mediante Batfish en zig zag