Global snow mass measurements and the effect of stratigraphic detail on inversion of microwave brightness temperatures

Snow provides large seasonal storage of freshwater, and information about the distribution of snow mass as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is important for hydrological planning and detecting climate change impacts. Large regional disagreements remain between estimates from reanalyses, remote sensing and modelling. Assimilating passive microwave information improves SWE estimates in many regions but the assimilation must account for how microwave scattering depends on snow stratigraphy. Physical snow models can estimate snow stratigraphy, but users must consider the computational expense of model complexity versus acceptable errors. Using data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cold Land Processes Experiment (NASA CLPX) and the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) microwave emission model of layered snowpacks, it is shown that simulations of the brightness temperature difference between 19 GHz and 37 GHz vertically polarised microwaves are consistent with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals once known stratigraphic information is used. Simulated brightness temperature differences for an individual snow profile depend on the provided stratigraphic detail. Relative to a profile defined at the 10 cm resolution of density and temperature measurements, the error introduced by simplification to a single layer of average properties increases approximately linearly with snow mass. If this brightness temperature error is converted into SWE using a traditional retrieval method then it is equivalent to ±13 mm SWE (7% of total) at a depth of 100 cm. This error is reduced to ±5.6 mm SWE (3 % of total) for a two-layer model.

On a resurgence of management simulations and games

The past few years have seen a significant resurgence of interest in ‘management games’ and ‘management flight simulators’, one particularly active source of such work being the system dynamics community. After proposing a distinction between games and simulations, this paper provides some background to these developments by briefly describing the historical roots of the field and the fundamental ideas of the system dynamics community, which are now giving rise to ‘microworlds’. The training advantages of management simulations and games are then discussed. The paper closes with a note on the research and findings of the system dynamics field and by offering some words of warning on the perils of simulation and game use. Two scenarios for how the use of simulations and games as management education devices might develop in the future are proposed. An Appendix describes five examples of very different types of management simulations and games.

Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations

The Fennec climate program aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include: (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sized up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in-situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as CCN and IN at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold-pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse mode size distributions and AERONET sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.

Molecular insights of p47phox phosphorylation dynamics in the regulation of NADPH oxidase activation and superoxide production

Phagocyte superoxide production by a multicomponent NADPH oxidase is important in host defense against microbial invasion. However inappropriate NADPH oxidase activation causes inflammation. Endothelial cells express NADPH oxidase and endothelial oxidative stress due to prolonged NADPH oxidase activation predisposes many diseases. Discovering the mechanism of NADPH oxidase activation is essential for developing novel treatment of these diseases. The p47phox is a key regulatory subunit of NADPH oxidase; however, due to the lack of full protein structural information, the mechanistic insight of p47phox phosphorylation in NADPH oxidase activation remains incomplete. Based on crystal structures of three functional domains, we generated a computational structural model of the full p47phox protein. Using a combination of in silico phosphorylation, molecular dynamics simulation and protein/protein docking, we discovered that the C-terminal tail of p47phox is critical for stabilizing its autoinhibited structure. Ser-379 phosphorylation disrupts H-bonds that link the C-terminal tail to the autoinhibitory region (AIR) and the tandem Src homology 3 (SH3) domains, allowing the AIR to undergo phosphorylation to expose the SH3 pocket for p22phox binding. These findings were confirmed by site-directed mutagenesis and gene transfection of p47phox_/_ coronary microvascular cells. Compared with wild-type p47phoxcDNAtransfected cells, the single mutation of S379A completely blocked p47phox membrane translocation, binding to p22phox and endothelial O2 . production in response to acute stimulation of PKC. p47phox C-terminal tail plays a key role in stabilizing intramolecular interactions at rest. Ser-379 phosphorylation is a molecular switch which initiates p47phox conformational changes and NADPH oxidase-dependent superoxide production by cells.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

Kazakhstan: long-term economic growth and the role of the oil sector

This study combines a narrative and modelling framework to analyse the development of Kazakhstan’s oil sector since its takeoff following separation from the USSR. As in the case of other emerging or transitional countries with large natural resource endowments, a key question is whether the exploitation of the natural resource is a benefit to longer term economic development: is it a curse, a blessing – or neither? Narrative evidence suggests that the establishment of good governance, in terms of institutions and policies, provides a background to sound long-term development, especially if combined with the development of sectors outside the natural resource sector, for example diversification into manufacturing and services, often through attracting FDI. The narrative is supported by econometric modelling of the relationship between domestic output, overseas output and exports of oil, which finds in favour of a sustained positive effect of oil exports on GDP. The model then provides a basis for projection of the growth in GDP given a consensus view of likely developments in the oil price.

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Dipole polarizability and Rayleigh light scattering by the hydrated electron

Assuming the existence of a confined state of the electron in bulk water the polarizability of the hydrated electron is analyzed. Statistically uncorrelated supermolecular structures composed of seven water molecules (first solvation shell) with an extra electron were extracted from classical Monte Carlo simulation and used in quantum mechanical second-order Moller-Plesset calculations. It is found that the bound excess electron contributes with 274 a.u. to the total dipole polarizability of 345 a.u. for (H(2)O)(7)(-). From the calculated polarizabilities the Rayleigh elastic light scattering properties are inferred and found to considerably enhance activity and light depolarization. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polarization and Spectral Shift of Benzophenone in Supercritical Water

Monte Carlo simulation and quantum mechanics calculations based on the INDO/CIS and TD-DFT methods were utilized to study the solvatochromic shift of benzophenone when changing the environment from normal water to supercritical (P = 340.2 atm and T = 673 K) condition. Solute polarization increases the dipole moment of benzophenone, compared to gas phase, by 88 and 35% in normal and supercritical conditions, giving the in-solvent dipole value of 5.8 and 4.2 D, respectively. The average number of solute-solvent hydrogen bonds was analyzed, and a large decrease of 2.3 in normal water to only 0.8 in the supercritical environment was found. By using these polarized models of benzophenone in the two different conditions of water, we performed MC simulations to generate statistically uncorrelated configurations of the solute surrounded by the solvent molecules and subsequent quantum mechanics calculations on these configurations. When changing from normal to supercritical water environment, INDO/CIS calculations explicitly considering all valence electrons of the 235 solvent water molecules resulted in a solvatochromic shift of 1425 cm(-1) for the most intense transition of benzophenone, that is, slightly underestimated in comparison with the experimentally inferred result of 1700 cm(-1). TD-B3LYP/6-311+G(2d,p) calculations on the same configurations but with benzophenone electrostatically embedded in the 320 water molecules resulted in a solvatochromic shift of 1715 cm(-1) for this transition, in very good agreement with the experimental result. When using the unpolarized model of the benzophenone, this calculated solvatochromic shift was only 640 cm(-1). Additional calculations were also made by using BHandHLYP/6-311+G(2d,p) to analyze the effect of the asymptotic decay of the exchange functional. This study indicates that, contrary to the general expectation, there is a sizable solute polarization even in the low-density regime of supercritical condition and that the inclusion of this polarization is important for a reliable description of the spectral shifts considered here.

Self-assembling of phenothiazine compounds investigated by small-angle X-ray scattering and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) have been carried out to investigate the structure of the self-aggregates of two phenothiazine drugs, chlorpromazine (CPZ) and trifluoperazine (TFP), in aqueous solution. In the SAXS studies, drug solutions of 20 and 60 mM, at pH 4.0 and 7.0, were investigated and the best data fittings were achieved assuming several different particle form factors with a homogeneous electron density distribution in respect to the water environment. Because of the limitation of scattering intensity in the q range above 0.15 angstrom(-1), precise determination of the aggregate shape was not possible and all of the tested models for ellipsoids, cylinders, or parallelepipeds fitted the experimental data equally well. The SAXS data allows inferring, however, that CPZ molecules might self-assemble in a basis set of an orthorhombic cell, remaining as nanocrystallites in solution. Such nanocrystals are composed of a small number of unit cells (up to 10, in c-direction), with CPZ aggregation numbers of 60-80. EPR spectra of 5- and 16-doxyl stearic acids bound to the aggregates were analyzed through simulation, and the dynamic and magnetic parameters were obtained. The phenothiazine concentration in EPR experiments was in the range of 5-60 mM. Critical aggregation concentration of TFP is lower than that for CPZ, consistent with a higher hydrophobicity of TFP. At acidic pH 4.0 a significant residual motion of the nitroxide relative to the aggregate is observed, and the EPR spectra and corresponding parameters are similar to those reported for aqueous surfactant micelles. However, at pH 6.5 a significant motional restriction is observed, and the nitroxide rotational correlation times correlate very well with those estimated for the whole aggregated particle from SAXS data. This implies that the aggregate is densely packed at this pH and that the nitroxide is tightly bound to it producing a strongly immobilized EPR spectrum. Besides that, at pH 6.5 the differences in motional restriction observed between 5- and 16-DSA are small, which is different from that observed for aqueous surfactant micelles.

Performance of GEANT4 in dosimetry applications: Calculation of X-ray spectra and kerma-to-dose equivalent conversion coefficients

In order to validate the Geant4 toolkit for dosimetry applications, simulations were performed to calculate conversion coefficients h(10, alpha) from air kerma free-in-air to personal dose equivalent Hp(10, a). The simulations consisted of two parts: the production of X-rays with radiation qualities of narrow and wide spectra, and the interaction of radiation with ICRU tissue-equivalent and ISO water slab phantoms. The half-value layers of the X-ray spectra obtained by simulation were compared with experimental results. Mean energy, spectral resolution, half-value layers and conversion coefficients were compared with ISO reference values. The good agreement between results from simulation and reference data shows that the Geant4 is suitable for dosimetry applications which involve photons with energies in the range of ten to a few hundreds of keV. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

City Of Toronto’S Approach On Implementing The New Federal Wastewater Effluent Regulations Using A GIS-Based Hydrologic And Hydraulic Model

Canada releases over 150 billion litres of untreated and undertreated wastewater into the water environment every year1. To clean up urban wastewater, new Federal Wastewater Systems Effluent Regulations (WSER) on establishing national baseline effluent quality standards that are achievable through secondary wastewater treatment were enacted on July 18, 2012. With respect to the wastewater from the combined sewer overflows (CSO), the Regulations require the municipalities to report the annual quantity and frequency of effluent discharges. The City of Toronto currently has about 300 CSO locations within an area of approximately 16,550 hectares. The total sewer length of the CSO area is about 3,450 km and the number of sewer manholes is about 51,100. A system-wide monitoring of all CSO locations has never been undertaken due to the cost and practicality. Instead, the City has relied on estimation methods and modelling approaches in the past to allow funds that would otherwise be used for monitoring to be applied to the reduction of the impacts of the CSOs. To fulfill the WSER requirements, the City is now undertaking a study in which GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling is the approach. Results show the usefulness of this for 1) determining the flows contributing to the combined sewer system in the local and trunk sewers for dry weather flow, wet weather flow, and snowmelt conditions; 2) assessing hydraulic grade line and surface water depth in all the local and trunk sewers under heavy rain events; 3) analysis of local and trunk sewer capacities for future growth; and 4) reporting of the annual quantity and frequency of CSOs as per the requirements in the new Regulations. This modelling approach has also allowed funds to be applied toward reducing and ultimately eliminating the adverse impacts of CSOs rather than expending resources on unnecessary and costly monitoring.

A Serious Gaming Approach For Serious Stakeholder Participation

Serious games are a category of games which are designed for a specific purpose other than for pure entertainment. It is not a new concept but serious games using real data, coupled with real time modelling and combining model results with social and economic factors opens up a new paradigm for active stakeholder participation. DHI and UNEP-DHI Centre initiated a project called Aqua Republica where a virtual world is developed which allows participants to develop a river basin and visualise the consequences of their decisions. The aim of this project is to raise awareness of the interconnectivity of water and educate on integrated water resources management. Aqua Republica combines a game layer with a water allocation model, MIKE BASIN, to create an interactive, realistic virtual environment where players play the role of a catchment manager of an undeveloped river catchment. Their main objective is to develop the river catchment to be as prosperous as it can be. To achieve that, they will need to generate a good economy in the catchment to provide the funds needed for development, have a steady food supply for their population and enough energy and water for the catchment. Through these actions by the player, a meaningful play is established to engage players and to educate them about the complex relationships between developmental actions in a river basin and the natural environment as well as their consequences. The game layer also consists of a reward system to encourage learning. People can play and replay the game, get rewarded from performing the right principles and penalised from failures in the game. This abstract will explain the concept of the game and how it has been used in a stakeholder participation environment.