Impact of passenger group dynamics on an airport evacuation process using an agent-based model

The safety of passengers is a major concern to airports. In the event of crises, having an effective and efficient evacuation process in place can significantly aid in enhancing passenger safety. Hence, it is necessary for airport operators to have an in-depth understanding of the evacuation process of their airport terminal. Although evacuation models have been used in studying pedestrian behaviour for decades, little research has been done in considering the evacuees’ group dynamics and the complexity of the environment. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger evacuation process. Different exits were allocated to passengers based on their location and security level. The simulation results show that the evacuation time can be influenced by passenger group dynamics. This model also provides a convenient way to design airport evacuation strategy and examine its efficiency. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

THE quest for alpha : can artificial neural networks help?

The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in finance is relatively new area of research. We employed ANNs that used both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and used these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a 10-year period (2001-2011). We found that the ANNs generally do well in predicting the direction of stock price movements. The stock portfolios selected by the ANNs with median accuracy are able to generate positive alpha over the 10-year period. More importantly, we found that a portfolio based on randomly selected network configuration had zero chance of resulting in a significantly negative alpha but a 27% chance of yielding a significantly positive alpha. This is in stark contrast to the findings of the research on mutual fund performance where active fund managers with negative alphas outnumber those with positive alphas.

Defining the spatiotemporal surveillance space for alien species’ invasions using approximate Bayesian computation

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.

On the effect of topology on cellular automata rule spaces

This thesis presents an empirical study of the effects of topology on cellular automata rule spaces. The classical definition of a cellular automaton is restricted to that of a regular lattice, often with periodic boundary conditions. This definition is extended to allow for arbitrary topologies. The dynamics of cellular automata within the triangular tessellation were analysed when transformed to 2-manifolds of topological genus 0, genus 1 and genus 2. Cellular automata dynamics were analysed from a statistical mechanics perspective. The sample sizes required to obtain accurate entropy calculations were determined by an entropy error analysis which observed the error in the computed entropy against increasing sample sizes. Each cellular automata rule space was sampled repeatedly and the selected cellular automata were simulated over many thousands of trials for each topology. This resulted in an entropy distribution for each rule space. The computed entropy distributions are indicative of the cellular automata dynamical class distribution. Through the comparison of these dynamical class distributions using the E-statistic, it was identified that such topological changes cause these distributions to alter. This is a significant result which implies that both global structure and local dynamics play a important role in defining long term behaviour of cellular automata.

A contextualised general systems theory

A system is something that can be separated from its surrounds, but this definition leaves much scope for refinement. Starting with the notion of measurement, we explore increasingly contextual system behaviour, and identify three major forms of contextuality that might be exhibited by a system: (a) between components; (b) between system and experimental method, and; (c) between a system and its environment. Quantum Theory is shown to provide a highly useful formalism from which all three forms of contextuality can be analysed, offering numerous tests for contextual behaviour, as well as modelling possibilities for systems that do indeed display it. I conclude with the introduction of a Contextualised General Systems Theory based upon an extension of this formalism.

Editorial

The 2nd International Digital Human Modeling (DHM) Symposium was held at the renowned University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) in Ann Arbor, Michigan in June 11–13, 2013. The symposium was co-organised by the UMTRI and Penn State University, and endorsed by the IEA Technical Committee on Human Simulation and Virtual Environments. The conference built on the very successful inaugural event DHM2011 held in Lyon two years before; and a decade of digital human modelling conferences held under the auspices of SAE International. Practitioners and scientists from 13 countries gathered to present their state-of-the-art developments and applied research, besides discussing the most recent advances in human modelling and directions for future work in DHM...

Evaluation of knowledge management performance: An organic approach

Knowledge management (KM) strategy is the planned or actual coordination of a firm's major goals and learning in time; this coordination continually co-aligns the firm's knowledge-based resources with the environment. Based on the organic perspective of strategy, a KM performance evaluation approach should be able to 1) review the knowledge governance mechanisms and learning routines that underpin the KM strategy, as well as the performance outcomes driven by the strategy, and 2) predict the evolution of performance drivers and outcomes into the future to facilitate strategic planning. This study combined a survey study and a system dynamics (SD) simulation to demonstrate the transformation from a mechanistic to an organic perspective on KM strategy and performance evaluation. The survey study was conducted based on a sample of 143 construction contractors and used structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques to develop a KM performance index for reviewing the key elements that underpin KM strategy. The SD simulation predicted the development of KM strategy configurations and the evolution of KM performance over time. The organic KM performance evaluation approach demonstrated by this study has significant potential to improve the alignment of KM strategy within an increasingly dynamic business environment.

Cell type-dependent, infection-induced, aberrant DNA methylation in gastric cancer

Epigenetic changes correspond to heritable modifications of the chromatin structure, which do not involve any alteration of the DNA sequence but nonetheless affect gene expression. These mechanisms play an important role in cell differentiation, but aberrant occurrences are also associated with a number of diseases, including cancer and neural development disorders. In particular, aberrant DNA methylation induced by H. Pylori has been found to be a significant risk factor in gastric cancer. To investigate the sensitivity of different genes and cell types to this infection, a computational model of methylation in gastric crypts is developed. In this article, we review existing results from physical experiments and outline their limitations, before presenting the computational model and investigating the influence of its parameters.

The ghost in the machine: Legal challenges of neural interface devices

Neural interface devices and the melding of mind and machine, challenge the law in determining where civil liability for injury, damage or loss should lie. The ability of the human mind to instruct and control these devices means that in a negligence action against a person with a neural interface device, determining the standard of care owed by him or her will be of paramount importance. This article considers some of the factors that may influence the court’s determination of the appropriate standard of care to be applied in this situation, leading to the conclusion that a new standard of care might evolve.

Applying POVM to model non-orthogonality in quantum cognition

Much of the work currently occurring in the field of Quantum Interaction (QI) relies upon Projective Measurement. This is perhaps not optimal, cognitive states are not nearly as well behaved as standard quantum mechanical systems; they exhibit violations of repeatability, and the operators that we use to describe measurements do not appear to be naturally orthogonal in cognitive systems. Here we attempt to map the formalism of Positive Operator Valued Measure (POVM) theory into the domain of semantic memory, showing how it might be used to construct Bell-type inequalities.

Impact of automatic region-of-interest coding on perceived quality in mobile video

At present, the most reliable method to obtain end-user perceived quality is through subjective tests. In this paper, the impact of automatic region-of-interest (ROI) coding on perceived quality of mobile video is investigated. The evidence, which is based on perceptual comparison analysis, shows that the coding strategy improves perceptual quality. This is particularly true in low bit rate situations. The ROI detection method used in this paper is based on two approaches: - (1) automatic ROI by analyzing the visual contents automatically, and; - (2) eye-tracking based ROI by aggregating eye-tracking data across many users, used to both evaluate the accuracy of automatic ROI detection and the subjective quality of automatic ROI encoded video. The perceptual comparison analysis is based on subjective assessments with 54 participants, across different content types, screen resolutions, and target bit rates while comparing the two ROI detection methods. The results from the user study demonstrate that ROI-based video encoding has higher perceived quality compared to normal video encoded at a similar bit rate, particularly in the lower bit rate range.

Development of germanium/silicon integration for near infrared detection

Silicon (Si) is the base material for electronic technologies and is emerging as a very attractive platform for photonic integrated circuits (PICs). PICs allow optical systems to be made more compact with higher performance than discrete optical components. Applications for PICs are in the area of fibre-optic communication, biomedical devices, photovoltaics and imaging. Germanium (Ge), due to its suitable bandgap for telecommunications and its compatibility with Si technology is preferred over III-V compounds as an integrated on-chip detector at near infrared wavelengths. There are two main approaches for Ge/Si integration: through epitaxial growth and through direct wafer bonding. The lattice mismatch of ~4.2% between Ge and Si is the main problem of the former technique which leads to a high density of dislocations while the bond strength and conductivity of the interface are the main challenges of the latter. Both result in trap states which are expected to play a critical role. Understanding the physics of the interface is a key contribution of this thesis. This thesis investigates Ge/Si diodes using these two methods. The effects of interface traps on the static and dynamic performance of Ge/Si avalanche photodetectors have been modelled for the first time. The thesis outlines the original process development and characterization of mesa diodes which were fabricated by transferring a ~700 nm thick layer of p-type Ge onto n-type Si using direct wafer bonding and layer exfoliation. The effects of low temperature annealing on the device performance and on the conductivity of the interface have been investigated. It is shown that the diode ideality factor and the series resistance of the device are reduced after annealing. The carrier transport mechanism is shown to be dominated by generation–recombination before annealing and by direct tunnelling in forward bias and band-to-band tunnelling in reverse bias after annealing. The thesis presents a novel technique to realise photodetectors where one of the substrates is thinned by chemical mechanical polishing (CMP) after bonding the Si-Ge wafers. Based on this technique, Ge/Si detectors with remarkably high responsivities, in excess of 3.5 A/W at 1.55 μm at −2 V, under surface normal illumination have been measured. By performing electrical and optical measurements at various temperatures, the carrier transport through the hetero-interface is analysed by monitoring the Ge band bending from which a detailed band structure of the Ge/Si interface is proposed for the first time. The above unity responsivity of the detectors was explained by light induced potential barrier lowering at the interface. To our knowledge this is the first report of light-gated responsivity for vertically illuminated Ge/Si photodiodes. The wafer bonding approach followed by layer exfoliation or by CMP is a low temperature wafer scale process. In principle, the technique could be extended to other materials such as Ge on GaAs, or Ge on SOI. The unique results reported here are compatible with surface normal illumination and are capable of being integrated with CMOS electronics and readout units in the form of 2D arrays of detectors. One potential future application is a low-cost Si process-compatible near infrared camera.

"System in package technology" - design for manufacture challenges

Purpose – To present key challenges associated with the evolution of system-in-package technologies and present technical work in reliability modeling and embedded test that contributes to these challenges. Design/methodology/approach – Key challenges have been identified from the electronics and integrated MEMS industrial sectors. Solutions to optimising the reliability of a typical assembly process and reducing the cost of production test have been studied through simulation and modelling studies based on technology data released by NXP and in collaboration with EDA tool vendors Coventor and Flomerics. Findings – Characterised models that deliver special and material dependent reliability data that can be used to optimize robustness of SiP assemblies together with results that indicate relative contributions of various structural variables. An initial analytical model for solder ball reliability and a solution for embedding a low cost test for a capacitive RF-MEMS switch identified as an SiP component presenting a key test challenge. Research limitations/implications – Results will contribute to the further development of NXP wafer level system-in-package technology. Limitations are that feedback on the implementation of recommendations and the physical characterisation of the embedded test solution. Originality/value – Both the methodology and associated studies on the structural reliability of an industrial SiP technology are unique. The analytical model for solder ball life is new as is the embedded test solution for the RF-MEMS switch.