Simulated joint and muscle forces in reversed and anatomic shoulder prostheses.

Reversed shoulder prostheses are increasingly being used for the treatment of glenohumeral arthropathy associated with a deficient rotator cuff. These non-anatomical implants attempt to balance the joint forces by means of a semi-constrained articular surface and a medialised centre of rotation. A finite element model was used to compare a reversed prosthesis with an anatomical implant. Active abduction was simulated from 0 degrees to 150 degrees of elevation. With the anatomical prosthesis, the joint force almost reached the equivalence of body weight. The joint force was half this for the reversed prosthesis. The direction of force was much more vertically aligned for the reverse prosthesis, in the first 90 degrees of abduction. With the reversed prosthesis, abduction was possible without rotator cuff muscles and required 20% less deltoid force to achieve it. This force analysis confirms the potential mechanical advantage of reversed prostheses when rotator cuff muscles are deficient.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

Possible solution of some essential zero problems in compositional data analysis

One of the tantalising remaining problems in compositional data analysis lies in how to deal with data sets in which there are components which are essential zeros. By anessential zero we mean a component which is truly zero, not something recorded as zero simply because the experimental design or the measuring instrument has not been sufficiently sensitive to detect a trace of the part. Such essential zeros occur inmany compositional situations, such as household budget patterns, time budgets,palaeontological zonation studies, ecological abundance studies. Devices such as nonzero replacement and amalgamation are almost invariably ad hoc and unsuccessful insuch situations. From consideration of such examples it seems sensible to build up amodel in two stages, the first determining where the zeros will occur and the secondhow the unit available is distributed among the non-zero parts. In this paper we suggest two such models, an independent binomial conditional logistic normal model and a hierarchical dependent binomial conditional logistic normal model. The compositional data in such modelling consist of an incidence matrix and a conditional compositional matrix. Interesting statistical problems arise, such as the question of estimability of parameters, the nature of the computational process for the estimation of both the incidence and compositional parameters caused by the complexity of the subcompositional structure, the formation of meaningful hypotheses, and the devising of suitable testing methodology within a lattice of such essential zero-compositional hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated by application to both simulated and real compositional data

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 differentcompositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression modelsolely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions areapplied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating theunknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephrasinto samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples isproposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets.This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as theirfocus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age ofunknown tephra.Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

Generation of Simulated Daily Precipitation and Air and Soil Temperatures, January 2000

This paper describes a maximum likelihood method using historical weather data to estimate a parametric model of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperatures. Parameter estimates are reported for Brookings, SD, and Boone, IA, to illustrate the procedure. The use of this parametric model to generate stochastic time series of daily weather is then summarized. A soil temperature model is described that determines daily average, maximum, and minimum soil temperatures based on air temperatures and precipitation, following a lagged process due to soil heat storage and other factors.

Surface deterioration of dental materials after simulated toothbrushing in relation to brushing time and load.

OBJECTIVES: (1) To evaluate the changes in surface roughness and gloss after simulated toothbrushing of 9 composite materials and 2 ceramic materials in relation to brushing time and load in vitro; (2) to assess the relationship between surface gloss and surface roughness. METHODS: Eight flat specimens of composite materials (microfilled: Adoro, Filtek Supreme, Heliomolar; microhybrid: Four Seasons, Tetric EvoCeram; hybrid: Compoglass F, Targis, Tetric Ceram; macrohybrid: Grandio), two ceramic materials (IPS d.SIGN and IPS Empress polished) were fabricated according to the manufacturer's instructions and optimally polished with up to 4000 grit SiC. The specimens were subjected to a toothbrushing (TB) simulation device (Willytec) with rotating movements, toothpaste slurry and at three different loads (100g/250g/350g). At hourly intervals from 1h to 10h TB, mean surface roughness Ra was measured with an optical sensor and the surface gloss (Gl) with a glossmeter. Statistical analysis was performed for log-transformed Ra data applying two-way ANOVA to evaluate the interaction between load and material and load and brushing time. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between material and load as well as between load and brushing time (p<0.0001). The microhybrid and hybrid materials demonstrated more surface deterioration with higher loads, whereas with the microfilled resins Heliomolar and Adoro it was vice versa. For ceramic materials, no or little deterioration was observed over time and independent of the load. The ceramic materials and 3 of the composite materials (roughness) showed no further deterioration after 5h of toothbrushing. Mean surface gloss was the parameter which discriminated best between the materials, followed by mean surface roughness Ra. There was a strong correlation between surface gloss and surface roughness for all the materials except the ceramics. The evaluation of the deterioration curves of individual specimens revealed a more or less synchronous course suspecting hinting specific external conditions and not showing the true variability in relation to the tested material. SIGNIFICANCE: The surface roughness and gloss of dental materials changes with brushing time and load and thus results in different material rankings. Apart from Grandio, the hybrid composite resins were more prone to surface changes than microfilled composites. The deterioration potential of a composite material can be quickly assessed by measuring surface gloss. For this purpose, a brushing time of 10h (=72,000 strokes) is needed. In further comparative studies, specimens of different materials should be tested in one series to estimate the true variability.

O Currículo de Matemática do 1º ciclo do Ensino Secundário de Cabo Verde na perspectiva de professores.

Este estudo tem por objectivo compreender a perspectiva de professores sobre o currículo de Matemática do 1º ciclo do Ensino Secundário cabo-verdiano e conhecer necessidades de formação que identificam, para um melhor desempenho na sua actividade profissional. As questões de estudo são: 1) Como se revêem os professores de Matemática no currículo do 1º ciclo do Ensino Secundário, enquanto agentes que interpretam e implementam esse currículo? 2) Que potencialidades e dificuldades reconhecem nesse currículo? 3) Que áreas consideram haver necessidade de formação, para a melhoria da sua prática docente, nesse nível de ensino? O desenvolvimento do referencial teórico integra duas áreas temáticas como eixos centrais: o currículo, o professor e o professor de Matemática. Foi feita uma análise de normativos cabo-verdianos para a educação, entre os quais se destacam a Lei de Bases do Sistema Educativo, o Plano de estudos para o ensino secundário e o Programa de Matemática do 1º ciclo do Ensino Secundário. A metodologia adoptada na investigação segue uma abordagem interpretativa e descritiva, suportada por um design de estudo de caso. São estudados três casos, relativos a professores de Matemática cabo-verdianos do 1º ciclo do Ensino Secundário. A recolha de dados recorre a uma entrevista semi-estruturada a cada professor, à observação de três aulas por professor participante e à recolha documental. A análise de dados foi feita utilizando principalmente a técnica de análise de conteúdos. Os professores revêem-se como executores de um currículo uniforme, de cumprimento obrigatório, normativo, emanado centralmente e do qual procuram interpretar as intenções. A sua visão de currículo é centrada nos conteúdos do programa, um dos motivos para que o enquadramento ao nível do meios institucionais e as competências esperadas ao nível do saber fazer e ao nível do saber ser nem sempre serem conhecidas e/ou cumpridas. Em acção, revêem-se como figuras centrais do currículo. Todos se revêem com mais competência na implementação curricular à medida que vão adquirindo experiência profissional. Concordam com os temas do programa e um deles sugere a inclusão de um tema. Consideram que os conteúdos nem sempre estão bem organizados e mostram a necessidade de a metodologia do programa ser mais detalhada, evidenciando claramente os seus propósitos. Eventualmente, podem não concordar com a estrutura de currículo em espiral do programa. Os professores identificam mais formação com melhor desempenho. As necessidades de formação são: Metodologia do Ensino da Matemática, Resolução de Problemas, Avaliação e a Geometria ligada à utilização de materiais pedagógicos. O estudo parece indicar que os professores não desenvolvem práticas diferentes por não terem essa vivência e aponta os professores mais jovens como mais abertos à mudança.

Evaporation from a shallow water table: Diurnal dynamics of measured and simulated water and heat regime at the vicinity of a drying sand surface

Accurate estimates of water losses by evaporation from shallow water tables are important for hydrological, agricultural, and climatic purposes. An experiment was conducted in a weighing lysimeter to characterize the diurnal dynamics of evaporation under natural conditions. Sampling revealed a completely dry surface sand layer after 5 days of evaporation. Its thickness was <1 cm early in the morning, increasing to reach 4?5 cm in the evening. This evidence points out fundamental limitations of the approaches that assume hydraulic connectivity from the water table up to the surface, as well as those that suppose monotonic drying when unsteady conditions prevail. The computed vapor phase diffusion rates from the apparent drying front based on Fick's law failed to reproduce the measured cumulative evaporation during the sampling day. We propose that two processes rule natural evaporation resulting from daily fluctuations of climatic variables: (i) evaporation of water, stored during nighttime due to redistribution and vapor condensation, directly into the atmosphere from the soil surface during the early morning hours, that could be simulated using a mass transfer approach and (ii) subsurface evaporation limited by Fickian diffusion, afterward. For the conditions prevailing during the sampling day, the amount of water stored at the vicinity of the soil surface was 0.3 mm and was depleted before 11:00. Combining evaporation from the surface before 11:00 and subsurface evaporation limited by Fickian diffusion after that time, the agreement between the estimated and measured cumulative evaporation was significantly improved.