Títulos públicos indexados à inflação e a ancoragem das expectativas no Brasil

O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar a ancoragem das expectativas de inflação de longo prazo no Brasil, medidas por intermédio das taxas de inflação implícitas nos títulos indexados ao IPCA. Para isso, são extraídas as curvas de juros reais e nominais dos preços do mercado secundário de títulos públicos, e uma vez de posse destes valores, são calculadas as taxas de inflação implícitas observadas diariamente no mercado brasileiro. Utilizando um modelo simples, estimado por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO) robusto, testa-se a sensibilidade de alguns vértices das taxas de inflação implícita em relação às variações mensais de indicadores macroeconômicos relevantes para a trajetória de curto prazo da inflação e política monetária. Desta maneira, pretende-se avaliar se o comportamento da inflação implícita nos preços de mercado dos títulos públicos pode oferecer evidências de que as expectativas estão bem ancoradas no Brasil, no âmbito do regime de metas de inflação.

Organismi acquatici e ambiente: meccanismi biochimici di interazione, risposta e adattamento

The research is focused on the relationship between some Mg2+-dependent ATPase activities of plasma- and mitochondrial membranes from tissues of cultured marine bivalve molluscs and potentially stressful environmental conditions, such as the exposure to contaminants both of natural origin (ammonia nitrogen, the main contaminant of aquaculture plants) and of anthropic source (alkyltins). The two filter-feeding bivalve species selected colonize different habitats: the common mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis binds to hard substrates and the Philippine clam Tapes philippinarum burrows into sea bottom sandy beds. The choice of typical species of coastal waters, extremely suitable for environmental studies due to their features of poor motility, resistance to transport and great filtering efficiency, may constitute a model to evaluate responses to contaminants of membrane-bound enzyme activities involved in key biochemical mechanisms, namely cell ionic regulation and mitochondrial energy production. In vitro and in vitro approaches have been pursued. In vitro assays were carried out by adding the contaminants (NH4Cl and alkyltins) directly to the ATPase reaction media. In vivo experiments were carried out by exposing mussels to various tributyl tin (TBT) concentrations under controlled conditions in aquaria. ATPase activities were determined spectrophotometrically according to the principles of the method of Fiske and Subbarow (1925). The main results obtained are detailed below. In Tapes philippinarum the interaction of NH4 +, the main form of ammonia nitrogen at physiological and seawater pHs, with the Na,K-ATPase and the ouabaininsensitive Na-ATPase was investigated in vitro on gill and mantle microsomal membranes. The proven replacement by NH4 +of K+ in the activation of the Na,KATPase and of Na+ in the activation of the ouabain-insensitive ATPase displayed similar enzyme affinity for the substituted cation. on the one hand this finding may represent one of the possible mechanisms of ammonia toxicity and, on the other, it supports the hypothesis that NH4 + can be transported across the plasma membrane through the two ATPases. In this case both microsomal ATPases may be involved and co-operate, at least under peculiar circumstances, to nitrogen excretion and ammonia detoxification mechanisms in bivalve molluscs. The two ATPase activities stimulated by NH4 + maintained their typical response to the glycoside ouabain, specific inhibitor of the Na,K-ATPase, being the Na++ NH4 +-activated ATPase even more susceptive to the inhibitor and the ouabain-insensitive ATPase activity activated indifferently by Na+ or NH4 + unaffected by up to 10-2 M ouabain. In vitro assays were carried out to evaluate the response of the two Na-dependent ATPases to organotins in clams and mussels and to investigate the interaction of TBT with mussel mitochondrial oligomycin-sensitive Mg-ATPase. Since no literature data were available, the optimal assay conditions and oligomycin sensitivity of mussel mitochondrial MgATPase were determined. In T. philippinarum the ouabain-insensitive Na-ATPase was found to be refractory to TBT both in the gills and in the mantle, whereas the Na,K-ATPase was progressively inhibited by increasing TBT doses; the enzyme inhibition was more pronounced in the gills than in the mantle. In both tissues of M. galloprovincialis the Na,K-ATPase inhibition by alkyltins decreased in the order TBT>DBT(dibutyltin)>>MBT(monobutyltin)=TeET(tetraethyltin) (no effect). Mussel Na-ATPase confirmed its refractorimess to TBT and derivatives both in the gills and in the mantle. These results indicate that the Na,K-ATPase inhibition decreases as the number of alkyl chains bound to tin decreases; however a certain polarity of the organotin molecule is required to yield Na,K-ATPase inhibition, since no enzyme inhibition occurred in the presence of tetraalkyl-substituted derivatives such as TeET . Assays carried out in the presence of the dithioerythritol (DTE) pointed out that the sulphhydrylic agent is capable to prevent the Na,K-ATPase inhibition by TBT, thus suggesting that the inhibitor may link to -SH groups of the enzyme complex.. Finally, the different effect of alkyltins on the two Na-dependent ATPases may constitute a further tool to differentiate between the two enzyme activities. These results add to the wealth of literature data describing different responses of the two enzyme activities to endogenous and exogenous modulators . Mussel mitochondrial Mg-ATPase was also found to be in vitro inhibited by TBT both in the gills and in the mantle: the enzyme inhibition followed non competitive kinetics. The failed effect of DTE pointed out that in this case the interaction of TBT with the enzyme complex is probably different from that with the Na,K-ATPase. The results are consistent with literature data showing that alkyltin may interact with enzyme structures with different mechanisms. Mussel exposure to different TBT sublethal doses in aquaria was carried out for 120 hours. Two samplings (after 24 and 120 hrs) were performed in order to evaluate a short-term response of gill and mantle Na,K-ATPase, ouabain-insensitive Na-ATPase and Mg-ATPase activities. The in vivo response to the contaminants of the enzyme activities under study was shown to be partially different from that pointed out in the in vitro assays. Mitochondrial Mg-ATPase activity appeared to be activated in TBTexposed mussels with respect to control ones, thus confirming the complexity of evaluating in vivo responses of the enzyme activities to contaminants, due to possible interactions of toxicants with molluscan metabolism. Concluding, the whole of data point out that microsomal and mitochondrial ATPase activities of bivalve molluscs are generally responsive to environmental contaminants and suggest that in some cases membrane-bound enzyme activities may represent the molecular target of their toxicity. Since the Na,K-ATPase, the Na-ATPase and the Mg-ATPase activities are poorly studied in marine bivalves, this research may contribute to enlarge knowledge in this quite unexplored field.

Tooth loss over five years

Objectives: To assess the ability to predict tooth loss on the basis of clinical and radiographic parameters. Methods: Clinical and radiographic data from a five year prospective cohort were studied to identify cause of progressive tooth loss in older subjects. Results: 363 subjects with a baseline mean age of 67.1 years (S.D. + 4.7, range : 60-75), and 51.4% women were studied including 59.5% never smokers, and 33.0% current smokers. At baseline the subjects had, on average, 22.4 teeth (S.D. + 6.4). Self-assessed tooth loss risk was identified by 16.0 % of subjects while 34% of subjects lost teeth. Tooth loss due to caries was found in 24.7% (178 teeth), periodontitis in 15.4% (133 teeth), peri-apical lesions 5.9% (32 teeth), combined periodontal/peri-apical in 3.4% (18 teeth), and teeth irrational to treat in 7.5% (58 teeth) of the subjects. 122 of the extracted teeth (34%) should have been possible to save but were extracted. At year five severe caries, periodontitis, peri-apical lesions, periodontal/peri-apical, irrational to treat were found in 6.3%, 7.2%, 2.6%, 4.6%, and 1.2% of subjects, respectively. Signs of osteoporosis increased by 11.2 % (Klemetti index). Linear regression analysis failed to include smoking habits as being explanatory. Explanatory factors were researcher prediction of extraction needs, subject self assessment of risk and change in ostoporosis status (r2 = 0.39, ANOVA, F=22.6, p< 0.001). Conclusions: Caries and periodontitis are primary causes for extraction. Progressive osteoporosis is associated with tooth loss. Radiographs, and subjects self-assessment of risk for tooth loss are robust predictors.

Estratégias de comercialização e investimento, com ênfase em energias renováveis, suportadas por modelos de otimização especializados para avaliação estocástica de risco x retorno.

A comercialização de energia elétrica de fontes renováveis, ordinariamente, constitui-se uma atividade em que as operações são estruturadas sob condições de incerteza, por exemplo, em relação ao preço \"spot\" no mercado de curto prazo e a geração de energia dos empreendimentos. Deriva desse fato a busca dos agentes pela formulação de estratégias e utilização de ferramentais para auxiliá-los em suas tomadas de decisão, visando não somente o retorno financeiro, mas também à mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. Análises de investimentos em fontes renováveis compartilham de desafios similares. Na literatura, o estudo da tomada de decisão considerada ótima sob condições de incerteza se dá por meio da aplicação de técnicas de programação estocástica, que viabiliza a modelagem de problemas com variáveis randômicas e a obtenção de soluções racionais, de interesse para o investidor. Esses modelos permitem a incorporação de métricas de risco, como por exemplo, o Conditional Value-at-Risk, a fim de se obter soluções ótimas que ponderem a expectativa de resultado financeiro e o risco associado da operação, onde a aversão ao risco do agente torna-se um condicionante fundamental. O objetivo principal da Tese - sob a ótica dos agentes geradores, consumidores e comercializadores - é: (i) desenvolver e implementar modelos de otimização em programação linear estocástica com métrica CVaR associada, customizados para cada um desses agentes; e (ii) aplicá-los na análise estratégica de operações como forma de apresentar alternativas factíveis à gestão das atividades desses agentes e contribuir com a proposição de um instrumento conceitualmente robusto e amigável ao usuário, para utilização por parte das empresas. Nesse contexto, como antes frisado, dá-se ênfase na análise do risco financeiro dessas operações por meio da aplicação do CVaR e com base na aversão ao risco do agente. Considera-se as fontes renováveis hídrica e eólica como opções de ativos de geração, de forma a estudar o efeito de complementaridade entre fontes distintas e entre sites distintos da mesma fonte, avaliando-se os rebatimentos nas operações.

Does the World Bank have any impact on human development in the poorest countries? Some preliminary evidence from Africa

In an attempt to better understand the impact of the World Bank on human development in poor countries, we use cross-country data on African countries for the 1990–2002 period to examine this relationship. The coefficient estimates of our parsimonious fixed-effects models indicate that while loans and grants of the Bank have had a positive impact on some relatively short-term indicators of health and education in an average African country, there is little evidence to suggest that such loans and grants have helped these countries to consolidate on the short-term gains.

Short-term functional outcome and premorbid adjustment in clinical high-risk patients. Results of the EPOS project

PURPOSE In patients with schizophrenia, premorbid psychosocial adjustment is an important predictor of functional outcome. We studied functional outcome in young clinical high-risk (CHR) patients and how this was predicted by their childhood to adolescence premorbid adjustment. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed with the Premorbid Adjustment Scale, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A). The SIPS assesses positive, negative, disorganised, general symptoms, and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), the SPI-A self-experienced basic symptoms; they were carried out at baseline, at 9-month and 18-month follow-up. Transitions to psychosis were identified. In the hierarchical linear model, associations between premorbid adjustment, background data, symptoms, transitions to psychosis and GAF scores were analysed. RESULTS During the 18-month follow-up, GAF scores improved significantly, and the proportion of patients with poor functioning decreased from 74% to 37%. Poor premorbid adjustment, single marital status, poor work status, and symptoms were associated with low baseline GAF scores. Low GAF scores were predicted by poor premorbid adjustment, negative, positive and basic symptoms, and poor baseline work status. The association between premorbid adjustment and follow-up GAF scores remained significant, even when baseline GAF and transition to psychosis were included in the model. CONCLUSION A great majority of help-seeking CHR patients suffer from deficits in their functioning. In CHR patients, premorbid psychosocial adjustment, baseline positive, negative, basic symptoms and poor working/schooling situation predict poor short-term functional outcome. These aspects should be taken into account when acute intervention and long-term rehabilitation for improving outcome in CHR patients are carried out.

Diagnostic yield of short-term video-EEG monitoring for epilepsy and PNESs: a European assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Although long-term video-EEG monitoring (LVEM) is routinely used to investigate paroxysmal events, short-term video-EEG monitoring (SVEM) lasting <24 h is increasingly recognized as a cost-effective tool. Since, however, relatively few studies addressed the yield of SVEM among different diagnostic groups, we undertook the present study to investigate this aspect. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 226 consecutive SVEM recordings over 6 years. All patients were referred because routine EEGs were inconclusive. Patients were classified into 3 suspected diagnostic groups: (1) group with epileptic seizures, (2) group with psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNESs), and (3) group with other or undetermined diagnoses. We assessed recording lengths, interictal epileptiform discharges, epileptic seizures, PNESs, and the definitive diagnoses obtained after SVEM. RESULTS: The mean age was 34 (±18.7) years, and the median recording length was 18.6 h. Among the 226 patients, 127 referred for suspected epilepsy - 73 had a diagnosis of epilepsy, none had a diagnosis of PNESs, and 54 had other or undetermined diagnoses post-SVEM. Of the 24 patients with pre-SVEM suspected PNESs, 1 had epilepsy, 12 had PNESs, and 11 had other or undetermined diagnoses. Of the 75 patients with other diagnoses pre-SVEM, 17 had epilepsy, 11 had PNESs, and 47 had other or undetermined diagnoses. After SVEM, 15 patients had definite diagnoses other than epilepsy or PNESs, while in 96 patients, diagnosis remained unclear. Overall, a definitive diagnosis could be reached in 129/226 (57%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that in nearly 3/5 patients without a definitive diagnosis after routine EEG, SVEM allowed us to reach a diagnosis. This procedure should be encouraged in this setting, given its time-effectiveness compared with LVEM.

The assessment of visual short-term memory in considering the underlying processes and their relation to psychometric intelligence

By means of fixed-links modeling the present study assessed processes involved in visual short-term memory functioning and investigates how these processes are related to intelligence. Using a color change detection task, short-term memory demands increased across three experimental conditions as a function of number of presented stimuli. We measured amount of information retained in visual short-term memory by hit rate as well as speed of visual short-term memory scanning by reaction time. For both measures, fixed-links modeling revealed a constant process reflecting processes irrespective of task manipulation as well as two increasing processes reflecting the increasing short-term memory demands. For visual short-term memory scanning, a negative association between intelligence and the constant process was found but no relationship between intelligence and the increasing processes. Thus, basic processing speed, rather than speed influenced by visual short-term memory demands, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. Intelligence was positively related to the experimental processes of shortterm memory retention but not to the constant process. In sum, significant associations with intelligence were only obtained when the specific processes of short-term memory were decomposed emphasizing the importance of a thorough assessment of cognitive processes when investigating their relation to intelligence.

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM MUTAGENICITY AND CYTOTOXICITY BIOASSAYS FOR INTEGRATED HEALTH ASSESSMENT STUDIES OF COAL FLY ASH EMISSIONS

Two respirable coal fly ash samples ((LESSTHEQ) 3(mu)m), one from a pressurized fluidized-bed combustion miniplant and one from a conventional combustion power plant, were investigated for physical properties, chemical composition and biological activity. Electron microscopy illustrated irregularity in fluidized-bed combustion fly ash and sphericity in conventional combustion fly ash. Elemental analysis of these samples showed differences in trace elements. Both fly ash samples were toxic in rabbit alveolar macrophage and Chinese hamster ovary cell systems in vitro. The macrophages were more sensitive to toxicity of fly ash than the ovary cells. For measuring the cytotoxicity of fly ash, the most sensitive parameters were adenosine triphosphate in the alveolar macrophage system and viability index in the hamster ovary system. Intact fluidized-bed combustion fly-ash particles showed mutagenicity only in strains TA98 and TA1538 without metabolic activation in the Ames Salmonella assay. No mutagenicity was detected in bioassay of conventional combustion fly ash particles. Solvent extraction yielded more mass from fluidized-bed combustion fly ash than from conventional combustion fly ash. The extracts of fluidized-bed combustion fly ash showed higher mutagenic activity than conventional combustion fly ash. These samples contained direct-acting, frameshift mutagens.^ Fly ash samples collected from the same fluidized-bed source by cyclones, a fabric filter, and a electrostatic precipitator at various temperatures were compared for particle size, toxicity, and mutagenicity. Results demonstrated that the biological activity of coal fly ash were affected by the collection site, device, and temperature.^ Coal fly ash vapor-coated with 1-nitropyrene was developed as a model system to study the bioavailability and recovery of nitroaromatic compounds in fly ash. The effects of vapor deposition on toxicity and mutagenicity of fly ash were examined. The nitropyrene coating did not significantly alter the ash's cytotoxicity. Nitropyrene was bioavailable in the biological media, and a significant percentage was not recovered after the coated fly ash was cultured with alveolar macrophages. 1-Nitropyrene loss increased as the number of macrophages was increased, suggesting that the macrophages are capable of metabolizing or binding 1-nitropyrene present in coal fly ash. ^

The effectiveness of a short-term group music therapy intervention for young parents and their children

The quality of early life experiences are known to influence a child’s capacities for emotional, social, cognitive and physical competence throughout their life (Peterson, 1996; Zubrick et al., 2008). These early life experiences are directly affected by parenting and family environments. A lack of positive parenting has significant implications both for children, and the broader communities in which they live (Davies & Cummings, 1994; Dryfoos, 1990; Sanders, 1995). Young parents are known to be at risk of experiencing adverse circumstances that affect their ability to provide positive parenting to their children (Milan et al., 2004; Trad, 1995). There is a need to provide parenting support programs to young parents that offer opportunities for them to come together, support each other and learn ways to provide for their children’s developmental needs in a friendly, engaging and non-judgemental environment. This research project examines the effectiveness of a 10 week group music therapy program Sing & Grow as an early parenting intervention for 535 young parents. Sing & Grow is a national early parenting intervention program funded by the Australian Government and delivered by Playgroup Queensland. It is designed and delivered by Registered Music Therapists for families at risk of marginalisation with children aged from birth to three years. The aim of the program is to improve parenting skills and parent-child interactions, and increase social support networks through participation in a group that is strengths-based and structured in a way that lends itself to modelling, peer learning and facilitated learning. During the 10 weeks parents have opportunities to learn practical, hands-on ways to interact and play with their children that are conducive to positive parent-child relationships and ongoing child development. A range of interactive, nurturing, stimulating and developmental music activities provide the framework for parents to interact and play with their children. This research uses data collected through the Sing & Grow National Evaluation Study to examine outcomes for all participants aged 25 years and younger, who attended programs during the Sing & Grow pilot study and main study from mid-2005 to the end of 2007. The research examines the change from pre to post in self-reported parent behaviours, parent mental health and parent social support, and therapist observed parent-child interactions. A range of statistical analyses are used to address each Research Objective for the young parent population, and for subgroups within this population. Research Objective 1 explored the patterns of attendance in the Sing & Grow program for young parents, and for subgroups within this population. Results showed that levels of attendance were lower than expected and influenced by Indigenous status and source of family income. Patterns of attendance showed a decline over time and incomplete data rates were high which may indicate high dropout rates. Research Objective 2 explored perceived satisfaction, benefits and social support links made. Satisfaction levels with the program and staff were very high. Indigenous status was associated with lower levels of reported satisfaction with both the program and staff. Perceived benefits from participation in the program were very high. Employment status was associated with perceived benefits: parents who were not employed were more likely than employed parents to report that their understanding of child development had increased as a result of participation in the program. Social support connections were reported for participants with other professionals, services and parents. In particular, families were more likely to link up with playgroup staff and services. Those parents who attended six or more sessions were significantly more likely to attend a playgroup than those who attended five sessions or less. Social support connections were related to source of family income, level of education, Indigenous status and language background. Research Objective 3 investigated pre to post change on self-report parenting skills and parent mental health. Results indicated that participation in the Sing & Grow program was associated with improvements in parent mental health. No improvements were found for self-reported parenting skills. Research Objective 4 investigated pre to post change in therapist observation measures of parent-child interactions. Results indicated that participation in the Sing & Grow program was associated with large and significant improvements in parent sensitivity to, engagement with and acceptance of the child. There were significant interactions across time (pre to post) for the parent characteristics of Indigenous status, family income and level of education. Research Objective 5 explored the relationship between the number of sessions attended and extent of change on self-report outcomes and therapist observed outcomes, respectively. For each, an overall change score was devised to ascertain those parents who had made any positive changes over time. Results showed that there was no significant relationship between high attendance and positive change in either the self-report or therapist observed behavioural measures. A risk index was also constructed to test for a relationship between the risk status of the parent. Parents with the highest risk status were significantly more likely to attend six or more sessions than other parents, but risk status was not associated with any differences in parent reported outcomes or therapist observations. The results of this research study indicate that Sing & Grow is effective in improving outcomes for young parents’ mental health, parent-child interactions and social support connections. High attendance by families in the highest category for risk factors may indicate that the program is effective at engaging and retaining parents who are most at-risk and therefore traditionally hard to reach. Very high levels of satisfaction and perceived benefits support this. Further research is required to help confirm the promising evidence from the current study that a short term group music therapy program can support young parents and improve their parenting outcomes. In particular, this needs to address the more disappointing outcomes of the current research study to improve attendance and engagement of all young parents in the program and especially the needs of young Indigenous parents.

Development and validation of the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score and 2h accelerated diagnostic protocol

Objective Risk scores and accelerated diagnostic protocols can identify chest pain patients with low risk of major adverse cardiac event who could be discharged early from the ED, saving time and costs. We aimed to derive and validate a chest pain score and accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) that could safely increase the proportion of patients suitable for early discharge. Methods Logistic regression identified statistical predictors for major adverse cardiac events in a derivation cohort. Statistical coefficients were converted to whole numbers to create a score. Clinician feedback was used to improve the clinical plausibility and the usability of the final score (Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score [EDACS]). EDACS was combined with electrocardiogram results and troponin results at 0 and 2 h to develop an ADP (EDACS-ADP). The score and EDACS-ADP were validated and tested for reproducibility in separate cohorts of patients. Results In the derivation (n = 1974) and validation (n = 608) cohorts, the EDACS-ADP classified 42.2% (sensitivity 99.0%, specificity 49.9%) and 51.3% (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 59.0%) as low risk of major adverse cardiac events, respectively. The intra-class correlation coefficient for categorisation of patients as low risk was 0.87. Conclusion The EDACS-ADP identified approximately half of the patients presenting to the ED with possible cardiac chest pain as having low risk of short-term major adverse cardiac events, with high sensitivity. This is a significant improvement on similar, previously reported protocols. The EDACS-ADP is reproducible and has the potential to make considerable cost reductions to health systems.

Comparative productivity of irrigated short-term ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) pasture receiving nitrogen, grown alone or in a mixture with white (Trifolium repens) and Persian (T. resupinatum) clovers

Dairy farms in subtropical Australia use irrigated, annually sown short-term ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) or mixtures of short-term ryegrass and white (Trifolium repens) and Persian (shaftal) (T. resupinatum) clover during the winter-spring period in all-year-round milk production systems. A series of small plot cutting experiments was conducted in 3 dairying regions (tropical upland, north Queensland, and subtropical southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales) to determine the most effective rate and frequency of application of nitrogen (N) fertiliser. The experiments were not grazed, nor was harvested material returned to the plots, after sampling. Rates up to 100 kg N/ha.month (as urea or calcium ammonium nitrate) and up to 200 kg N/ha every 2 months (as urea) were applied to pure stands of ryegrass in 1991. In 1993 and 1994, urea, at rates up to 150 kg N/ha.month and to 200 kg N/ha every 2 months, was applied to pure stands of ryegrass; urea, at rates up to 50 kg N/ha.month, was also applied to ryegrass-clover mixtures. The results indicate that applications of 50-85 kg N/ha.month can be recommended for short-term ryegrass pastures throughout the subtropics and tropical uplands of eastern Australia, irrespective of soil type. At this rate, dry matter yields will reach about 90% of their potential, forage nitrogen concentration will be increased, there is minimal risk to stock from nitrate poisoning and there will be no substantial increase in soil N. The rate of N for ryegrass-clover pastures is slightly higher than for pure ryegrass but, at these rates, the clover component will be suppressed. However, increased ryegrass yields and higher forage nitrogen concentrations will compensate for the reduced clover component. At application rates up to 100 kg N/ha.month, build-up of NO3--N and NH4+-N in soil was generally restricted to the surface layers (0-20 cm) of the soil, but there was a substantial increase throughout the soil profile at 150 kg N/ha.month. The build-up of NO3--N and NH4+-N was greater and was found at lower rates on the lighter soil compared with heavy clays. Generally, most of the soil N was in the NO3--N form and most was in the top 20 cm.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.