The Spanish motor industry in the first third of the 20th Century: A lost opportunity

The Spanish automobile industry had a late start. Although the country proved capable of short production runs of high-quality vehicles during the first third of the century it never managed to build up its own industry, unlike Great Britain, France, or Italy. What then, were the critical shortcomings that prevented the establishment of large Spanish motor manufacturers? Put another way, why did all of the companies set up during the first half-century fail to survive? This paper attempts to shed some light on these questions, employing a wide-ranging analysis of both internal and external factors affecting the industry. A feeble internal market, lack of resources and production factors are usually adduced as reasons, as are Spain's general economic backwardness and the role played by the public authorities. However, this paper mainly focuses on the internal factors concerning company strategy and organisation. A comparison with the Italian case helps put the traditional arguments in proper perspective and highlights those covering business strategies. Finally, we argue that a broad range of factors needs to be analysed to fully understand why Spain failed to establish a motor industry.

Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Alexithymia in patients recently diagnosed with cancer

Background: Contrary to the frequent assumption that alexithymia is a rather static personality trait hampering psychotherapeutic approaches, we have observed that cancer patients who qualify for the criteria of alexithymia may benefit from psychotherapy. Therefore, in patients facing a cancer diagnosis, alexithymia can often be considered as a state due to the threat of the disease (secondary alexithymia).Aims: To identify prevalence of alexithymia in newly diagnosed cancer patients and to document its evolution with and without psychotherapeutic interventions.Methods: Between 2006 and summer 2009, every newpatient of the Oncology Service of the University Hospital Lausanne was invited to benefit from psychotherapeutic support. Accepting patients were randomly assigned to a psychotherapeutic intervention or to a 4-month waiting list. Psychotherapies were formalized as psychodynamic-oriented short interventions (1-4 sessions) or brief psychodynamic psychotherapies (16 sessions). Patients who declined psychotherapeutic support were asked to participate in an observational group. Socio-demographic and medical data, alexithymia (TAS), anxiety and depression (SCL-90, HADS) and quality of life (EORTC) of participants of all groups were recorded at base line and at 1, 4, 8 and 12-months follow-up. Results: Of the 419 patients included, 190 desired psychotherapeutic support (94 were assigned to an immediate and 96 to a delayed intervention) and 229 patients accepted to be followed in the observational group. A very high proportion, almost 2/3 of the patients in all groups, qualified for alexithymia. With regard to the evolution of alexithymia, no significant changes were observed within and between groups and psychological symptoms also remained almost stable.Conclusions: Secondary alexithymia seems to be highly prevalent in newly diagnosed cancer patients. This raises important clinical and scientific questions: are these patients deprived from psychological support? How should interventions be conceptualized? Are interventions necessary and beneficial? Does alexithymia neutralize the effect of interventions on symptoms of anxiety and depression? Which outcome should be chosen for patients with secondary alexithymia?Keywords: Alexithymia, cancer, psycho-oncology, psychotherapy, secondary alexithymia

On the short-time behavior of the implied volatility for jump-diffusion models with stochastic volatility

In this paper we use Malliavin calculus techniques to obtain an expression for the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew for a generalization of the Bates model, where the volatility does not need to be neither a difussion, nor a Markov process as the examples in section 7 show. This expression depends on the derivative of the volatility in the sense of Malliavin calculus.

Short term variation in the vertical distribution of copepods off the coast of northern Peru

Analiza los datos colectados de la clorofila frente al Peru cerca de 9°S. Determinandose la profundidad a la que se enuentran y la concentración de oxigeno durante el dia y la noche.