Understanding volcanic processes using UV camera measurements of sulfur dioxide and coincident infrasound and seismicity

The exsolution of volatiles from magma maintains an important control on volcanic eruption styles. The nucleation, growth, and connectivity of bubbles during magma ascent provide the driving force behind eruptions, and the rate, volume, and ease of gas exsolution can affect eruptive activity. Volcanic plumes are the observable consequence of this magmatic degassing, and remote sensing techniques allow us to quantify changes in gas exsolution. However, until recently the methods used to measure volcanic plumes did not have the capability of detecting rapid changes in degassing on the scale of standard geophysical observations. The advent of the UV camera now makes high sample rate gas measurements possible. This type of dataset can then be compared to other volcanic observations to provide an in depth picture of degassing mechanisms in the shallow conduit. The goals of this research are to develop a robust methodology for UV camera field measurements of volcanic plumes, and utilize this data in conjunction with seismoacoustic records to illuminate degassing processes. Field and laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the effects of imaging conditions, vignetting, exposure time, calibration technique, and filter usage on the UV camera sulfur dioxide measurements. Using the best practices determined from these studies, a field campaign was undertaken at Volcán de Pacaya, Guatemala. Coincident plume sulfur dioxide measurements, acoustic recordings, and seismic observations were collected and analyzed jointly. The results provide insight into the small explosive features, variations in degassing rate, and plumbing system of this complex volcanic system. This research provides useful information for determining volcanic hazard at Pacaya, and demonstrates the potential of the UV camera in multiparameter studies.

DIFFERENTIATING PATH AND SOURCE PROCESSES IN COMPLEX GEOLOGIC STRUCTURE THROUGH PASSIVE SEISMIC STUDIES: BERING GLACIER, ALASKA AND VILLARRICA VOLCANO, CHILE

Measuring shallow seismic sources provides a way to reveal processes that cannot be directly observed, but the correct interpretation and value of these signals depend on the ability to distinguish source from propagation effects. Furthermore, seismic signals produced by a resonating source can look almost identical to those produced by impulsive sources, but modified along the path. Distinguishing these two phenomena can be accomplished by examining the wavefield with small aperture arrays or by recording seismicity near to the source when possible. We examine source and path effects in two different environments: Bering Glacier, Alaska and Villarrica Volcano, Chile. Using three 3-element seismic arrays near the terminus of the Bering Glacier, we have identified and located both terminus calving and iceberg breakup events. We show that automated array analysis provided a robust way to locate icequake events using P waves. This analysis also showed that arrivals within the long-period codas were incoherent within the small aperture arrays, demonstrating that these codas previously attributed to crack resonance were in fact a result of a complicated path rather than a source effect. At Villarrica Volcano, seismometers deployed from near the vent to ~10 km revealed that a several cycle long-period source signal recorded at the vent appeared elongated in the far-field. We used data collected from the stations nearest to the vent to invert for the repetitive seismic source, and found it corresponded to a shallow force within the lava lake oriented N75°E and dipping 7° from horizontal. We also used this repetitive signal to search the data for additional seismic and infrasonic properties which included calculating seismic-acoustic delay times, volcano acoustic-seismic ratios and energies, event frequency, and real-time seismic amplitude measurements. These calculations revealed lava lake level and activity fluctuations consistent with lava lake level changes inferred from the persistent infrasonic tremor.

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT IN REMOTE SENSING AND INNOVATIVE APPLICATION TO VOLCANOLOGY

The integration of remote monitoring techniques at different scales is of crucial importance for monitoring of volcanoes and assessment of the associated hazard. In this optic, technological advancement and collaboration between research groups also play a key role. Vhub is a community cyberinfrastructure platform designed for collaboration in volcanology research. Within the Vhub framework, this dissertation focuses on two research themes, both representing novel applications of remotely sensed data in volcanology: advancement in the acquisition of topographic data via active techniques and application of passive multi-spectral satellite data to monitoring of vegetated volcanoes. Measuring surface deformation is a critical issue in analogue modelling of Earth science phenomena. I present a novel application of the Microsoft Kinect sensor to measurement of vertical and horizontal displacements in analogue models. Specifically, I quantified vertical displacement in a scaled analogue model of Nisyros volcano, Greece, simulating magmatic deflation and inflation and related surface deformation, and included the horizontal component to reconstruct 3D models of pit crater formation. The detection of active faults around volcanoes is of importance for seismic and volcanic hazard assessment, but not a simple task to be achieved using analogue models. I present new evidence of neotectonic deformation along a north-south trending fault from the Mt Shasta debris avalanche deposit (DAD), northern California. The fault was identified on an airborne LiDAR campaign of part of the region interested by the DAD and then confirmed in the field. High resolution LiDAR can be utilized also for geomorphological assessment of DADs, and I describe a size-distance analysis to document geomorphological aspects of hummock in the Shasta DAD. Relating the remote observations of volcanic passive degassing to conditions and impacts on the ground provides an increased understanding of volcanic degassing and how satellite-based monitoring can be used to inform hazard management strategies in nearreal time. Combining a variety of satellite-based spectral time series I aim to perform the first space-based assessment of the impacts of sulfur dioxide emissions from Turrialba volcano, Costa Rica, on vegetation in the surrounding environment, and establish whether vegetation indices could be used more broadly to detect volcanic unrest.

TIME LAPSE SEISMIC OBSERVATIONS AND EFFECTS OF RESERVOIR COMPRESSIBILITY AT TEAL SOUTH OIL FIELD

One of the original ocean-bottom time-lapse seismic studies was performed at the Teal South oil field in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1990’s. This work reexamines some aspects of previous work using modern analysis techniques to provide improved quantitative interpretations. Using three-dimensional volume visualization of legacy data and the two phases of post-production time-lapse data, I provide additional insight into the fluid migration pathways and the pressure communication between different reservoirs, separated by faults. This work supports a conclusion from previous studies that production from one reservoir caused regional pressure decline that in turn resulted in liberation of gas from multiple surrounding unproduced reservoirs. I also provide an explanation for unusual time-lapse changes in amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) data related to the compaction of the producing reservoir which, in turn, changed an isotropic medium to an anisotropic medium. In the first part of this work, I examine regional changes in seismic response due to the production of oil and gas from one reservoir. The previous studies primarily used two post-production ocean-bottom surveys (Phase I and Phase II), and not the legacy streamer data, due to the unavailability of legacy prestack data and very different acquisition parameters. In order to incorporate the legacy data in the present study, all three poststack data sets were cross-equalized and examined using instantaneous amplitude and energy volumes. This approach appears quite effective and helps to suppress changes unrelated to production while emphasizing those large-amplitude changes that are related to production in this noisy (by current standards) suite of data. I examine the multiple data sets first by using the instantaneous amplitude and energy attributes, and then also examine specific apparent time-lapse changes through direct comparisons of seismic traces. In so doing, I identify time-delays that, when corrected for, indicate water encroachment at the base of the producing reservoir. I also identify specific sites of leakage from various unproduced reservoirs, the result of regional pressure blowdown as explained in previous studies; those earlier studies, however, were unable to identify direct evidence of fluid movement. Of particular interest is the identification of one site where oil apparently leaked from one reservoir into a “new” reservoir that did not originally contain oil, but was ideally suited as a trap for fluids leaking from the neighboring spill-point. With continued pressure drop, oil in the new reservoir increased as more oil entered into the reservoir and expanded, liberating gas from solution. Because of the limited volume available for oil and gas in that temporary trap, oil and gas also escaped from it into the surrounding formation. I also note that some of the reservoirs demonstrate time-lapse changes only in the “gas cap” and not in the oil zone, even though gas must be coming out of solution everywhere in the reservoir. This is explained by interplay between pore-fluid modulus reduction by gas saturation decrease and dry-frame modulus increase by frame stiffening. In the second part of this work, I examine various rock-physics models in an attempt to quantitatively account for frame-stiffening that results from reduced pore-fluid pressure in the producing reservoir, searching for a model that would predict the unusual AVO features observed in the time-lapse prestack and stacked data at Teal South. While several rock-physics models are successful at predicting the time-lapse response for initial production, most fail to match the observations for continued production between Phase I and Phase II. Because the reservoir was initially overpressured and unconsolidated, reservoir compaction was likely significant, and is probably accomplished largely by uniaxial strain in the vertical direction; this implies that an anisotropic model may be required. Using Walton’s model for anisotropic unconsolidated sand, I successfully model the time-lapse changes for all phases of production. This observation may be of interest for application to other unconsolidated overpressured reservoirs under production.

TUNING, AVO, AND FLAT-SPOT EFFECTS IN A SEISMIC ANALYSIS OF NORTH SEA BLOCK F3

Reflection seismic data from the F3 block in the Dutch North Sea exhibits many large-amplitude reflections at shallow horizons, typically categorized as “brightspots ” (Schroot and Schuttenhelm, 2003), mainly because of their bright appearance. In most cases, these bright reflections show a significant “flatness” contrasting with local structural trends. While flatspots are often easily identified in thick reservoirs, we have often occasionally observed apparent flatspot tuning effects at fluid contacts near reservoir edges and in thin reservoir beds, while only poorly understanding them. We conclude that many of the shallow large-amplitude reflections in block F3 are dominated by flatspots, and we investigate the thin-bed tuning effects that such flatspots cause as they interact with the reflection from the reservoir’s upper boundary. There are two possible effects to be considered: (1) the “wedge-model” tuning effects of the flatspot and overlying brightspots, dimspots, or polarity-reversals; and (2) the stacking effects that result from possible inclusion of post-critical flatspot reflections in these shallow sands. We modeled the effects of these two phenomena for the particular stratigraphic sequence in block F3. Our results suggest that stacking of post-critical flatspot reflections can cause similar large-amplitude but flat reflections, in some cases even causing an interface expected to produce a ‘dimspot’ to appear as a ‘brightspot’. Analysis of NMO stretch and muting shows the likely exclusion of critical offset data in stacked output. If post-critical reflections are included in stacking, unusual results will be observed. In the North Sea case, we conclude the tuning effect was the primary reason causing for the brightness and flatness of these reflections. However, it is still important to note that care should be taken while applying muting on reflections with wide range of incidence angles and the inclusion of critical offset data may cause some spurious features in the stacked section.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

USING AUTO- AND CROSS-CORRELATIONS FROM SEISMIC NOISE TO MONITOR VELOCITY CHANGES AT VILLARRICA VOLCANO, CHILE

We used the Green's functions from auto-correlations and cross-correlations of seismic ambient noise to monitor temporal velocity changes in the subsurface at Villarrica volcano in the Southern Andes of Chile. Campaigns were conducted from March to October 2010 and February to April 2011 with 8 broadband and 6 short-period stations, respectively. We prepared the data by removing the instrument response, normalizing with a root-mean-square method, whitening the spectra, and filtering from 1 to 10 Hz. This frequency band was chosen based on the relatively high background noise level in that range. Hour-long auto- and cross-correlations were computed and the Green's functions stacked by day and total time. To track the temporal velocity changes we stretched a 24 hour moving window of correlation functions from 90% to 110% of the original and cross correlated them with the total stack. All of the stations' auto-correlations detected what is interpreted as an increase in velocity in 2010, with an average increase of 0.13%. Cross-correlations from station V01, near the summit, to the other stations show comparable changes that are also interpreted as increases in velocity. We attribute this change to the closing of cracks in the subsurface due either to seasonal snow loading or regional tectonics. In addition to the common increase in velocity across the stations, there are excursions in velocity on the same order lasting several days. Amplitude decreases as the station's distance from the vent increases suggesting these excursions may be attributed to changes within the volcanic edifice. In at least two occurrences the amplitudes at stations V06 and V07, the stations farthest from the vent, are smaller. Similar short temporal excursions were seen in the auto-correlations from 2011, however, there was little to no increase in the overall velocity.

Materials-Handling Hazard Controls: Assessment of Haddon’s Injury Control Strategies

This investigation assessed the applicability of Dr. William Haddon’s strategies for controlling hazards involving materials-handling operations in industrial and mining workplaces. Published over 20 years ago, Haddon’s strategies purport to include all strategies for preventing and mitigating harm to people, property, and the environment. Students in an undergraduate class were assigned to find tactical examples of each of Haddon’s strategies applicable to material handling. Haddon’s tenth strategy involving medical care and rehabilitation was not included. Their classifications were analyzed to identify points of confusion as well as points of general agreement. Students found numerous tactics for strategies involving engineering and behavioral strategies. Fewer tactics were identified for strategies involving damage control through effective and timely response.

Communicating Severity of Hazard with the Signal Word on a Safety Sign

An experiment examined five signal words on safety signs for effectiveness at communicating information about severity of a hazard. Perceived severity was rated by 59 college students for the signal words Deadly, Danger, Warning, Caution, and Notice. Results indicated that Deadly communicated the highest ratings for severity. Danger was second. Warning and Caution were tied for third. The lowest ratings were for Notice.

Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Seismic stratigraphy of the Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize), a late Holocene climate and storm archive

Five seismic units may be identified in the similar to 8 m thick Holocene sediment package at the bottom of the Blue Hole, a 120 m deep sinkhole located in the atoll lagoon of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. These units may be correlated with the succession of an existing 5.85-m-long sediment core that reaches back to 1385 kyrs BP. The identification of seismic units is based on the fact that uniform, fine-grained background sediments show weak reflections while alternating background and coarser-grained event (storm) beds exhibit strong reflections in the seismic profiles. The main source of sediments is the marginal atoll reef and adjacent lagoon area to the east and north. Northeasterly winds and storms transport sediment into the Blue Hole, as seen in the eastward increase in sediment thickness, i.e., the eastward shallowing of the Blue Hole. Previous assumptions of much thicker Holocene sediment packages in the Blue Hole could not be confirmed. So far, close to 6-m-long cores were retrieved from the Blue Hole but the base of the sedimentary succession remains to be recovered. The nature of the basal sediments is unknown but mid-Holocene and possibly older, Pleistocene sinkhole deposits can be expected. The number of event beds identified in the Blue Hole (n = 37) during a 1.385 kyr-long period and the number of cyclones listed in historical databases suggest that only strong hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) left event beds in the Blue Hole sedimentary succession. Storm beds are numerous during 13-0.9 kyrs BP and 0.8-0.5 kyrs BP.

Seismic anisotropy in the Morcles nappe shear zone: Implications for seismic imaging of crustal scale shear zones

Microstructures and textures of calcite mylonites from the Morcles nappe large-scale shear zone in southwestern Switzerland develop principally as a function of 1) extrinsic physical parameters including temperature, stress, strain, strain rate and 2) intrinsic parameters, such as mineral composition. We collected rock samples at a single location from this shear zone, on which laboratory ultrasonic velocities, texture and microstructures were investigated and quantified. The samples had different concentration of secondary mineral phases (< 5 up to 40 vol.%). Measured seismic P wave anisotropy ranges from 6.5% for polyphase mylonites (~ 40 vol.%) to 18.4% in mylonites with < 5 vol.% secondary phases. Texture strength of calcite is the main factor governing the seismic P wave anisotropy. Measured S wave splitting is generally highest in the foliation plane, but its origin is more difficult to explain solely by calcite texture. Additional texture measurements were made on calcite mylonites with low concentration of secondary phases (≤ 10 vol.%) along the metamorphic gradient of the shear zone (15 km distance). A systematic increase in texture strength is observed moving from the frontal part of the shear zone (anchimetamorphism; 280 °C) to the higher temperature, basal part (greenschist facies; 350–400 °C). Calculated P wave velocities become increasingly anisotropic towards the high-strain part of the nappe, from an average of 5.8% in the frontal part to 13.2% in the root of the basal part. Secondary phases raise an additional complexity, and may act either to increase or decrease seismic anisotropy of shear zone mylonites. In light of our findings we reinterpret the origin of some seismically reflective layers in the Grône–Zweisimmen line in southwestern Switzerland (PNR20 Swiss National Research Program). We hypothesize that reflections originate in part from the lateral variation in textural and microstructural arrangement of calcite mylonites in shear zones.