Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal changes in the diving performance of the bimodally respiring freshwater turtle Rheodytes leukops in a natural setting

The objective of this study was to investigate how seasonally fluctuating environmental conditions influence the diving performance of the highly aquatic, bimodally respiring turtle Rheodytes leukops in a natural setting. Over four consecutive seasons (Austral autumn 2000 to summer 2001), the diving behaviour of adult turtles was recorded via pressure-sensitive time-depth recorders within Marlborough Creek, central Queensland, Australia. Short surfacing intervals recorded for R. leukops in winter suggest that the species utilizes aquatic respiration as an overwintering strategy to prevent the development of a metabolic acidosis during the long inactive dives observed during the season. As water temperature increases and aquatic P-O 2 decreases, R. leukops switches from facultative to obligate air-breathing, presumably because of the increased metabolic cost associated with aquatic respiration under summer conditions. Increases in mean surfacing time from winter to spring and summer are attributed to seasonal changes in behaviour possibly associated with foraging rather than to the physiological state of the turtle, given that no difference in median surfacing time among seasons was observed.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Structural variations and formation constants of first-row transition metal complexes of biologically active aroylhydrazones

Iron chelators of the 2-pyridinecarbaldehyde isonicotinoylhydrazone (HPCIH) class show high potential for the treatment of iron overload diseases. In the present study, selected first-row transition metal (from Mn to Zn) complexes with HPCIH and 2-pyridinecarbaldehyde (4'-aminobenzoyl)hydrazone (HPCAH) were synthesised and characterised. Crystallography reveals that HPCAH exclusively forms bis complexes with divalent transition metals, with each ligand coordinating meridionally through its pyridine-N, imine-N and carbonyl-O atoms, forming distorted octahedral cis-MN4O2 complexes. Complexes of HPCIH were more varied and unpredictable, with metal/ligand ratios of 1:1, 1:2, 2:2 and 3:2 obtained with different metal ions. The isonicotinoyl ring N-atom in HPCIH was found to be an effective ligand, and this resulted in the varied metal/ligand ratios observed. The formation constants of divalent metal complexes with HPCIH were determined by potentiometric titrations and the values obtained were consistent with similar tridentate ligands and with the Irving-Williams order. ((C) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2003).

Caracterização da matéria orgânica nas zonas ripárias em diferentes condições de preservação no Cerrado do Planalto Central do Brasil

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, 2016.

Tillering and forage accumulation in Marandu grass under different grazing intensities

Studies of plant responses to defoliation are important to develop pasture management strategies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the population density of basal, aerial and reproductive tillers, tiller appearance and mortality rates, forage accumulation and sward structure in Marandu grass pastures under different grazing intensities. The experimental period was from January to June 2006, divided in three seasons: summer, autumn and winter. The pastures were continuously grazed using variable stocking rates. The grazing intensities corresponded to 15, 30 and 45 cm of sward height. The experiment was arranged in a complete randomized block design with three treatments and two replicates. The sward heights were measured twice a week. The response variables were: forage accumulation, forage mass and its morphological components; and population densities of basal (TPDb), aerial (TPDa) and reproductive (TPDr) tillers. The highest TPDb (P > 0.05) was recorded for the shortest sward pasture, and the highest TPDr (P<0.05) for the tallest sward pasture. Swards showed a tiller size/density compensation mechanism and, consequently, the forage accumulation was similar (P > 0.05) among the grazing intensities. Pasture with a sward height of 35 cm had 94% of sun light interception. The highest variations in forage accumulation and sward structure were more influenced by seasonal differences than by grazing intensities. Pastures of Marandu grass showed large flexibility in grazing management, which allowed it to be maintained at sward heights between 15 and 35 cm.

Variations of the soft tissue thicknesses external to the ribs in Pectus Excavatum patients

Background: Surgical repair of pectus excavatum (PE) has become more popular due to improvements in the minimally invasive Nuss procedure. The pre-surgical assessment of PE patients requires Computerized Tomography (CT), as the malformation characteristics vary from patient to patient. Objective: This work aims to characterize soft tissue thickness (STT) external to the ribs among PE patients. It also presents a comparative analysis between the anterior chest wall surface before and after surgical correction. Methods: Through surrounding tissue segmentation in CT data, STT values were calculated at different lines along the thoracic wall, with a reference point in the intersection of coronal and median planes. The comparative analysis between the two 3D anterior chest surfaces sets a surgical correction influence area (SCIA) and a volume of interest (VOI) based on image processing algorithms, 3D surface algorithms, and registration methods. Results: There are always variations between left and right side STTs (2.54±2.05 mm and 2.95±2.97 mm for female and male patients, respectively). STTs are dependent on age, sex, and body mass index of each patient. On female patients, breast tissue induces additional errors in bar manual

Variations of the soft tissue thicknesses external to the ribs in pectus excavatum patients

Background: Surgical repair of pectus excavatum (PE) has become more popular due to improvements in the minimally invasive Nuss procedure. The pre-surgical assessment of PE patients requires Computerized Tomography (CT), as the malformation characteristics vary from patient to patient. Objective: This work aims to characterize soft tissue thickness (STT) external to the ribs among PE patients. It also presents a comparative analysis between the anterior chest wall surface before and after surgical correction. Methods: Through surrounding tissue segmentation in CT data, STT values were calculated at different lines along the thoracic wall, with a reference point in the intersection of coronal and median planes. The comparative analysis between the two 3D anterior chest surfaces sets a surgical correction influence area (SCIA) and a volume of interest (VOI) based on image processing algorithms, 3D surface algorithms, and registration methods. Results: There are always variations between left and right side STTs (2.54±2.05 mm and 2.95±2.97 mm for female and male patients, respectively). STTs are dependent on age, sex, and body mass index of each patient. On female patients, breast tissue induces additional errors in bar manual

Seasonal variation of total particulate matter and children respiratory diseases at Lisbon primary schools using passive methods

In this work, 14 primary schools of Lisbon city, Portugal, followed a questionnaire of the ISAAC - International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood Program, in 2009/2010. The questionnaire contained questions to identify children with respiratory diseases (wheeze, asthma and rhinitis). Total particulate matter (TPM) was passively collected inside two classrooms of each of 14 primary schools. Two types of filter matrices were used to collect TPM: Millipore (IsoporeTM) polycarbonate and quartz. Three campaigns were selected for the measurement of TPM: Spring, Autumn and Winter. The highest difference between the two types of filters is that the mass of collected particles was higher in quartz filters than in polycarbonate filters, even if their correlation is excellent. The highest TPM depositions occurred between October 2009 and March 2010, when related with rhinitis proportion. Rhinitis was found to be related to TPM when the data were grouped seasonally and averaged for all the schools. For the data of 2006/2007, the seasonal variation was found to be related to outdoor particle deposition (below 10 μm).

Occurrence of suicide and seasonal variation

OBJECTIVE: To review the estimated suicide rates for the Region Metropolitan, the main socio-political center in Chile, for the period 1979-1994, and to determine whether they follow a seasonal pattern. METHOD: Data available for the period 1979-94 at the Forensic Services in Chile was analyzed using ANOVA. RESULTS: It was register 5.386 suicides. While the "warm" months (October, November, December & January) concentrated 39.0% of cases, the so called "cold" months reported 28,7%. This contrast is made even clearer by the month-to-month analysis, showing the highest suicide rate in December (10.9%) against the lowest rate in June (7.0%). Further statistical analysis revealed these differences to be significant. CONCLUSION: The study shows that in Chile, representing as it does the Southern Hemisphere, the suicide rates tend to present a seasonal variation as has elsewhere been determined for in the North Hemisphere.

Temporal and spatial variability of fin whale's (Balaenoptera physalus) distribution in the Pelagos Sanctuary: Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 20 de Março de 2014, Universidade dos Açores.

Legal and health variations in drug litigation injunctions granted in Minas Gerais

OBJECTIVE To investigate the factors related to the granting of preliminary court orders [injunctions] in drug litigations. METHODS A retrospective descriptive study of drug lawsuits in the State of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil, was conducted from October 1999 to 2009. The database consists of 6,112 lawsuits, out of which 6,044 had motions for injunctions and 5,167 included the requisition of drugs. Those with more than one beneficiary were excluded, which totaled 5,072 examined suits. The variables for complete, partial, and suppressed motions were treated as dependent and assessed in relation to those that were independent – lawsuits (year, type, legal representation, defendant, court in which it was filed, adjudication time), drugs (level five of the anatomical therapeutic chemical classification), and diseases (chapter of the International Classification of Diseases). Statistical analyses were performed using the Chi-square test. RESULTS Out of the 5,072 lawsuits with injunctions, 4,184 (82.5%) had the injunctions granted. Granting varied from 95.8% of the total lawsuits in 2004 to 76.9% in 2008. Where there was legal representation, granting exceeded 80.0% and in lawsuits without representation, it did not exceed 66.9%. In public civil actions (89.1%), granting was higher relative to ordinary lawsuits (82.8%) and injunctions (80.1%). Federal courts granted only 68.6% of the injunctions, while the state courts granted 84.8%. Diseases of the digestive system and neoplasms received up to 87.0% in granting, while diseases of the nervous system, mental and behavioral disorders, and diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue received granting below 78.6% and showed a high proportion of suspended injunctions (10.9%). Injunctions involving paroxetine, somatropin, and ferrous sulfate drugs were all granted, while less than 54.0% of those involving escitalopram, sodium diclofenac, and nortriptyline were granted. CONCLUSIONS There are significant differences in the granting of injunctions, depending on the procedural and clinical variances. Important trends in the pattern of judicial action were observed, particularly, in the reduced granting [of injunctions] over the period.

Market power analysis in the Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations model

In the last years the electricity industry has faced a restructuring process. Among the aims of this process was the increase in competition, especially in the generation activity where firms would have an incentive to become more efficient. However, the competitive behavior of generating firms might jeopardize the expected benefits of the electricity industry liberalization. The present paper proposes a conjectural variations model to study the competitive behavior of generating firms acting in liberalized electricity markets. The model computes a parameter that represents the degree of competition of each generating firm in each trading period. In this regard, the proposed model provides a powerful methodology for regulatory and competition authorities to monitor the competitive behavior of generating firms. As an application of the model, a study of the day-ahead Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) was conducted to analyze the impact of the integration of the Portuguese and Spanish electricity markets on the behavior of generating firms taking into account the hourly results of the months of June and July of 2007. The advantages of the proposed methodology over other methodologies used to address market power, namely Residual Supply index and Lerner index are highlighted. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Ostracodes; witnesses of the Plio-Quaternary boundary in the North Eastern Atlantic preliminary results

Proceedings of the 1" R.C.A.N.S. Congress, Lisboa, October 1992