Bayesian Analysis of a Superimposed Renewal Process

Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.

Lubricated Tribology of a Eutectic Aluminium-Silicon Alloy in the Ultra-Mild Wear and Mild Wear Regimes for Long Sliding Times

Aluminium-silicon alloy, an important material used for the construction of internal combustion engines, exhibit pressure induced distinct regimes of wear and friction; ultra-mild and mild. In this work the alloy is slid lubricated against a spherical steel pin at contact pressures characteristic of the two test regimes, at a very low sliding velocity. In both cases, the friction is controlled at the initial stages of sliding by the abrasion of the steel pin by the protruding silicon particles of the disc. The generation of nascent steel chips helps to breakdown the additive in the oil by a cationic exchange that yields chemical products of benefits to the tribology. The friction is initially controlled by abrasion, but the chemical products gain increasing importance in controlling friction with sliding time. After long times, depending on contact pressure, the chemical products determine sliding friction exclusively. In this paper, a host of mechanical and spectroscopic techniques are used to identify and characterize mechanical damage and chemical changes. Although the basic dissipation mechanisms are the same in the two regimes, the matrix remains practically unworn in the low-pressure ultra-mild wear regime. In the higher pressure regime at long sliding times a small but finite wear rate prevails. Incipient plasticity in the subsurface controls the mechanism of wear.

Fuel drop size measurement in a carburetted induction system with 2 throttling methods

A new throttling system far SI engines is examined. The SMD of the fuel droplets in the induction system is measured to evaluate the performance of the new device with respect to the conventional throttle plate arrangement. The measurements are conducted at steady now conditions. A forward angular scattering technique with a He-Ne laser beam is used for droplet size measurement. The experiments are carried out with different mixture strength, stream velocity and throttle positions. It is observed that A/F ratio has no effect on SMD. However, stream velocity and throttle position have a significant influence on SMD. The new throttling method is found to be more effective in reducing the SMD, particularly at low throttle opening and high stream velocity compared to the conventional throttle plate.

Three- and Seven-Point Optimally Weighted Recursive Median Filters for Gas Turbine Diagnostics

Measured health signals incorporate significant details about any malfunction in a gas turbine. The attenuation of noise and removal of outliers from these health signals while preserving important features is an important problem in gas turbine diagnostics. The measured health signals are a time series of sensor measurements such as the low rotor speed, high rotor speed, fuel flow, and exhaust gas temperature in a gas turbine. In this article, a comparative study is done by varying the window length of acausal and unsymmetrical weighted recursive median filters and numerical results for error minimization are obtained. It is found that optimal filters exist, which can be used for engines where data are available slowly (three-point filter) and rapidly (seven-point filter). These smoothing filters are proposed as preprocessors of measurement delta signals before subjecting them to fault detection and isolation algorithms.

Spontaneously Igniting Hybrid Fuel-Oxidizer Systems

After briefly outlining the recent developments in hybrid rockets, the work carried out by the author on self-igniting (hypergolic) solid fuel-liquid oxidiser systems has been reviewed. A major aspect relates to the solid derivatives of hydrazines, which have been conceived as fuels for hybrid rockets. Many of these N-N bonded compounds ignite readily, with very short ignition delays, on coming into contact with liquid oxidisers, like HNO3 and N2O4. The ignition characteristics have been examined as a function of the nature of the functional group in the fuel molecule, in an attempt to establish a basis for the hypergolic ignition in terms of chemical reactivity of the fuel-oxidiser combination. Important chemical reactions occurring in the pre-ignition stage have been identified by examining the quenched reaction products. Hybrid systems exhibiting synergistic hypergolicity in the presence of metal powders have been investigated. An estimation of the rocket performance parameters, experimental determination of the heats of combustion in HNO3, thermal decomposition characteristics, temperature profile by thin film thermometry and and product identification by the rapid scan FT-IR, are among the other relevant studies made on these systems. A significant recent development has been the synthesis of new N-N bonded viscous binders, capable of retaining the hypergolicity of the fuel powders embedded therein as well as providing the required mechanical strength to the grain. Several of these resins have been characterised. Metallised fuel composites of these resins having high loading of magnesium are found to have short ignition delays and high performance parameters.

Fuzzy logic intelligent system for gas turbine module and system fault isolation

A fuzzy logic intelligent system is developed for gas-turbine fault isolation. The gas path measurements used for fault isolation are exhaust gas temperature, low and high rotor speed, and fuel flow. These four measurements are also called the cockpit parameters and are typically found in almost all older and newer jet engines. The fuzzy logic system uses rules developed from a model of performance influence coefficients to isolate engine faults while accounting for uncertainty in gas path measurements. It automates the reasoning process of an experienced powerplant engineer. Tests with simulated data show that the fuzzy system isolates faults with an accuracy of 89% with only the four cockpit measurements. However, if additional pressure and temperature probes between the compressors and before the burner, which are often found in newer jet engines, are considered, the fault isolation accuracy rises to as high as 98%. In addition, the additional sensors are useful in keeping the fault isolation system robust as quality of the measured data deteriorates.

Noise and outlier removal from jet engine health signals using weighted FIR median hybrid filters

The removal of noise and outliers from measurement signals is a major problem in jet engine health monitoring. Topical measurement signals found in most jet engines include low rotor speed, high rotor speed. fuel flow and exhaust gas temperature. Deviations in these measurements from a baseline 'good' engine are often called measurement deltas and the health signals used for fault detection, isolation, trending and data mining. Linear filters such as the FIR moving average filter and IIR exponential average filter are used in the industry to remove noise and outliers from the jet engine measurement deltas. However, the use of linear filters can lead to loss of critical features in the signal that can contain information about maintenance and repair events that could be used by fault isolation algorithms to determine engine condition or by data mining algorithms to learn valuable patterns in the data, Non-linear filters such as the median and weighted median hybrid filters offer the opportunity to remove noise and gross outliers from signals while preserving features. In this study. a comparison of traditional linear filters popular in the jet engine industry is made with the median filter and the subfilter weighted FIR median hybrid (SWFMH) filter. Results using simulated data with implanted faults shows that the SWFMH filter results in a noise reduction of over 60 per cent compared to only 20 per cent for FIR filters and 30 per cent for IIR filters. Preprocessing jet engine health signals using the SWFMH filter would greatly improve the accuracy of diagnostic systems. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

The promise of fuel cell-based automobiles

Fuel cell-based automobiles have gained attention in the last few years due to growing public concern about urban air pollution and consequent environmental problems. From an analysis of the power and energy requirements of a modern car, it is estimated that a base sustainable power of ca. 50 kW supplemented with short bursts up to 80 kW will suffice in most driving requirements. The energy demand depends greatly on driving characteristics but under normal usage is expected to be 200 Wh/km. The advantages and disadvantages of candidate fuel-cell systems and various fuels are considered together with the issue of whether the fuel should be converted directly in the fuel cell or should be reformed to hydrogen onboard the vehicle. For fuel cell vehicles to compete successfully with conventional internal-combustion engine vehicles, it appears that direct conversion fuel cells using probably hydrogen, but possibly methanol, are the only realistic contenders for road transportation applications. Among the available fuel cell technologies, polymer-electrolyte fuel cells directly fueled with hydrogen appear to be the best option for powering fuel cell vehicles as there is every prospect that these will exceed the performance of the internal-combustion engine vehicles but for their first cost. A target cost of $ 50/kW would be mandatory to make polymer-electrolyte fuel cells competitive with the internal combustion engines and can only be achieved with design changes that would substantially reduce the quantity of materials used. At present, prominent car manufacturers are deploying important research and development efforts to develop fuel cell vehicles and are projecting to start production by 2005.

Multi-Armed Bandit Mechanisms for Multi-Slot Sponsored Searth Auctions

In pay-per click sponsored search auctions which are currently extensively used by search engines, the auction for a keyword involves a certain number of advertisers (say k) competing for available slots (say m) to display their ads. This auction is typically conducted for a number of rounds (say T). There are click probabilities mu_ij associated with agent-slot pairs. The search engine's goal is to maximize social welfare, for example, the sum of values of the advertisers. The search engine does not know the true value of an advertiser for a click to her ad and also does not know the click probabilities mu_ij s. A key problem for the search engine therefore is to learn these during the T rounds of the auction and also to ensure that the auction mechanism is truthful. Mechanisms for addressing such learning and incentives issues have recently been introduced and would be referred to as multi-armed-bandit (MAB) mechanisms. When m = 1,characterizations for truthful MAB mechanisms are available in the literature and it has been shown that the regret for such mechanisms will be O(T^{2/3}). In this paper, we seek to derive a characterization in the realistic but nontrivial general case when m > 1 and obtain several interesting results.

Packet Reordering in Network Processors

Network processors today consist of multiple parallel processors (micro engines) with support for multiple threads to exploit packet level parallelism inherent in network workloads. With such concurrency, packet ordering at the output of the network processor cannot be guaranteed. This paper studies the effect of concurrency in network processors on packet ordering. We use a validated Petri net model of a commercial network processor, Intel IXP 2400, to determine the extent of packet reordering for IPv4 forwarding application. Our study indicates that in addition to the parallel processing in the network processor, the allocation scheme for the transmit buffer also adversely impacts packet ordering. In particular, our results reveal that these packet reordering results in a packet retransmission rate of up to 61%. We explore different transmit buffer allocation schemes namely, contiguous, strided, local, and global which reduces the packet retransmission to 24%. We propose an alternative scheme, packet sort, which guarantees complete packet ordering while achieving a throughput of 2.5 Gbps. Further, packet sort outperforms the in-built packet ordering schemes in the IXP processor by up to 35%.

On the Production of Anorexic Plan Diagrams

A "plan diagram" is a pictorial enumeration of the execution plan choices of a database query optimizer over the relational selectivity space. We have shown recently that, for industrial-strength database engines, these diagrams are often remarkably complex and dense, with a large number of plans covering the space. However, they can often be reduced to much simpler pictures, featuring significantly fewer plans, without materially affecting the query processing quality. Plan reduction has useful implications for the design and usage of query optimizers, including quantifying redundancy in the plan search space, enhancing useability of parametric query optimization, identifying error-resistant and least-expected-cost plans, and minimizing the overheads of multi-plan approaches. We investigate here the plan reduction issue from theoretical, statistical and empirical perspectives. Our analysis shows that optimal plan reduction, w.r.t. minimizing the number of plans, is an NP-hard problem in general, and remains so even for a storage-constrained variant. We then present a greedy reduction algorithm with tight and optimal performance guarantees, whose complexity scales linearly with the number of plans in the diagram for a given resolution. Next, we devise fast estimators for locating the best tradeoff between the reduction in plan cardinality and the impact on query processing quality. Finally, extensive experimentation with a suite of multi-dimensional TPCH-based query templates on industrial-strength optimizers demonstrates that complex plan diagrams easily reduce to "anorexic" (small absolute number of plans) levels incurring only marginal increases in the estimated query processing costs.

Single Cavity Trapped Vortex Combustor Simulations

The present work describes steady and unsteady computation of reacting flow in a Trapped Vortex Combustor. The primary motivation of this study is to develop this concept into a working combustor in modern gas turbines. The present work is an effort towards development of an experimental model test rig for further understanding dynamics of a single cavity trapped vortex combustor. The steady computations with and without combustion have been done for L/D of 0.8, 1 and 1.2; also unsteady non-reacting flow simulation has been done for L/D of 1. Fuel used for the present study is methane and Eddy-Dissipation model has been used for combustion-turbulence interactions. For L/D of 0.8, combustion efficiency is maximum and pattern factor is minimum. Also, primary vortex in the cavity is more stable and symmetric for L/D of 0.8. From unsteady non-reacting flow simulations, it is found that there is no vortex shedding from the cavity but there are oscillations in the span-wise direction of the combustor.

Fuel Cell Efficiency Redefined; Carnot Limit Reassessed

There are deficiencies in current definition of thermodynamic efficiency of fuel cells (ηcth = ΔG/ΔH); efficiency greater than unity is obtained when AS for the cell reaction is positive, and negative efficiency is obtained for endothermic reactions. The origin of the flow is identified. A new definition of thennodynamic efficiency is proposed that overcomes these limitations. Consequences of the new definition are examined. Against the conventional view that fuel cells are not Carnot limited, several recent articles have argued that the second law of thermodynamics restricts fuel cell energy conversion in the same way as heat engines. This controversy is critically examined. A resolution is achieved in part from an understanding of the contextual assumptions in the different approaches and in part from identifying some conceptual limitations.

Exceptional activity of mesoporous beta-MnO2 in the catalytic thermal sensitization of ammonium perchlorate

Mesoporous beta-MnO2 has been prepared, characterized and demonstrated to possess excellent catalytic activity in the thermal decomposition of ammonium perchlorate. The observed unprecedentedly low decomposition temperatures, fast reaction rates and enhanced heat releases in the catalysed formulations make mesoporous beta-MnO2 promising as a high-performing ballistic modifier in AP-based composite solid rocket propellants.