The concept of risk management in the renewable sector.

This study explores the perception of risk and the level of risk management implementation in the renewable sector. Risk management is emerging as a key issue due to the loss of confidence amongst banks, causing the attainment of financing to be difficult over the next few years. To attract financing, there is a fundamental requirement to manage risk in a way that minimizes the probability of a negative financial impact on the project. Miller and Lessard (2001) argue that successful projects are not selected but shaped with risk resolution in mind. Rather than evaluating projects at the outset based on projections of the full set of benefits, costs and risks over their lifetime, successful developers start with project ideas that have the potential of becoming viable. Therefore, this study bridges the gap that exists within the renewable sector in relation to risk management literature. This study succeeds through a detailed comparative case study analysis where two developers and two financiers were questioned through qualitative semi-structured interviews on the concept of risk management and its level implementation within the industry. It is believed that the growth in financed renewable energy projects depends on the adequate design and implementation of risk management to mitigate inherent project risks. However, this study revealed that are certain types of developers in existence within the renewable sector, which underestimate the magnitude of risk and view the development of projects as a ‘money racket’. Therefore, it can be concluded that perception of risk will also differ, causing risk and uncertainty to vary from project to project, resulting in investment reluctance to be associated with certain projects. The study originality lies in how it demonstrates to developers the concept of risk management, outlining the simplicity and benefits of implementing it in project development. Finally, this study contributes to the knowledge by enhancing the awareness and understanding of the presence and nature of risk in a RE project environment.

Treatment of Dyslipidemia with Statins and Physical Exercises: Recent Findings of Skeletal Muscle Responses

Statin treatment in association with physical exercise practice can substantially reduce cardiovascular mortality risk of dyslipidemic individuals, but this practice is associated with myopathic event exacerbation. This study aimed to present the most recent results of specific literature about the effects of statins and its association with physical exercise on skeletal musculature. Thus, a literature review was performed using PubMed and SciELO databases, through the combination of the keywords “statin” AND “exercise” AND “muscle”, restricting the selection to original studies published between January 1990 and November 2013. Sixteen studies evaluating the effects of statins in association with acute or chronic exercises on skeletal muscle were analyzed. Study results indicate that athletes using statins can experience deleterious effects on skeletal muscle, as the exacerbation of skeletal muscle injuries are more frequent with intense training or acute eccentric and strenuous exercises. Moderate physical training, in turn, when associated to statins does not increase creatine kinase levels or pain reports, but improves muscle and metabolic functions as a consequence of training. Therefore, it is suggested that dyslipidemic patients undergoing statin treatment should be exposed to moderate aerobic training in combination to resistance exercises three times a week, and the provision of physical training prior to drug administration is desirable, whenever possible.

Inequality and Risk-Taking Behaviour

This paper investigates social influences on attitudes to risk and offers an evolutionary explanation of risk-taking by young low-ranked males. Becker, Murphy and Werning (2005) found that individuals about to participate in a status tournament may take fair gambles even though they are risk averse in both wealth and status. Here their model is generalised by use of the insight of Hopkins and Kornienko (2010) that in a tournament or status competition one can consider equality in terms of the status or rewards available as well as in initial endowments. While Becker et al. found that risk-taking is increasing in the equality of initial endowments, it is found here that it is increasing in the inequality of rewards in the tournament. Further, it is shown that the poorest will be risk loving if the lowest level of status awarded is sufficiently low. Thus, the disadvantaged in society rationally engage in risky behavior when social rewards are sufficiently unequal. Finally, as greater inequality in terms of social status induces gambling, it can cause greater inequality of wealth.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

The in vitro cytopathology of a porcine and the simian (SA-11) strains of rotavirus

Rotaviruses have been implicated as the major causal agents of acute diarrhoea in mammals and fowls. Experimental rotavirus infection have been associated to a series of sub-cellular pathologic alterations leading to cell lysis which may represent key functions in the pathogenesis of the diarrhoeic disease. The current work describes the cytopathic changes in cultured MA-104 cells infected by a simian (SA-11) and a porcine (1154) rotavirus strains. Trypan blue exclusion staining showed increased cell permeability after infection by both strains, as demonstrated by cell viability. This effect was confirmed by the leakage of infected cells evaluated by chromium release. Nuclear fragmentation was observed by acridine orange and Wright staining but specific DNA cleavage was not detected. Ultrastructural changes, such as chromatin condensation, cytoplasm vacuolisation, and loss of intercellular contact were shown in infected cells for both strains. In situ terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase (Tunel) assay did not show positive result. In conclusion, we demonstrated that both strains of rotavirus induced necrosis as the major degenerative effect.

Assessing the associations between mental disorders, cardiovascular risk factors, and cardiovascular disease : the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study

Background: Cardio-vascular diseases (CVD), their well established risk factors (CVRF) and mental disorders are common and co-occur more frequently than would be expected by chance. However, the pathogenic mechanisms and course determinants of both CVD and mental disorders have only been partially identified.Methods/Design: Comprehensive follow-up of CVRF and CVD with a psychiatric exam in all subjects who participated in the baseline cross-sectional CoLaus study (2003-2006) (n=6'738) which also included a comprehensive genetic assessment. The somatic investigation will include a shortened questionnaire on CVRF, CV events and new CVD since baseline and measurements of the same clinical and biological variables as at baseline. In addition, pro-inflammatory markers, persistent pain and sleep patterns and disorders will be assessed. In the case of a new CV event, detailed information will be abstracted from medical records. Similarly, data on the cause of death will be collected from the Swiss National Death Registry. The comprehensive psychiatric investigation of the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study will use contemporary epidemiological methods including semi-structured diagnostic interviews, experienced clinical interviewers, standardized diagnostic criteria including threshold according to DSM-IV and sub-threshold syndromes and supplementary information on risk and protective factors for disorders. In addition, screening for objective cognitive impairment will be performed in participants older than 65 years.Discussion: The combined CoLaus/PsyCoLaus sample provides a unique opportunity to obtain prospective data on the interplay between CVRF/CVD and mental disorders, overcoming limitations of previous research by bringing together a comprehensive investigation of both CVRF and mental disorders as well as a large number of biological variables and a genome-wide genetic assessment in participants recruited from the general population.

A large study of androgen receptor germline variants and their relation to sex hormone levels and prostate cancer risk. Results from the National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium

Background: Androgens are key regulators of prostate gland maintenance and prostate cancer growth, and androgen deprivation therapy has been the mainstay of treatment for advanced prostate cancer for many years. A long-standing hypothesis has been that inherited variation in the androgen receptor (AR) gene plays a role in prostate cancer initiation. However, studies to date have been inconclusive and often suffered from small sample sizes. Objective and Methods: We investigated the association of AR sequence variants with circulating sex hormone levels and prostate cancer risk in 6058 prostate cancer cases and 6725 controls of Caucasian origin within the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium. We genotyped a highly polymorphic CAG microsatellite in exon 1 and six haplotype tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms and tested each genetic variant for association with prostate cancer risk and with sex steroid levels. Results: We observed no association between AR genetic variants and prostate cancer risk. However, there was a strong association between longer CAG repeats and higher levels of testosterone (P = 4.73 × 10−5) and estradiol (P = 0.0002), although the amount of variance explained was small (0.4 and 0.7%, respectively). Conclusions: This study is the largest to date investigating AR sequence variants, sex steroid levels, and prostate cancer risk. Although we observed no association between AR sequence variants and prostate cancer risk, our results support earlier findings of a relation between the number of CAG repeats and circulating levels of testosterone and estradiol.

Neuroanatomical and neuropsychological features of euthymic patients with bipolar disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies reported that the severity of cognitive deficits in euthymic patients with bipolar disorder (BD) increases with the duration of illness and postulated that progressive neuronal loss or shrinkage and white matter changes may be at the origin of this phenomenon. To explore this issue, the authors performed a case-control study including detailed neuropsychological and magnetic resonance imaging analyses in 17 euthymic elderly patients with BD and 17 healthy individuals. METHODS: Neuropsychological evaluation concerned working memory, episodic memory, processing speed, and executive functions. Volumetric estimates of the amygdala, hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex were obtained using both voxel-based and region of interest morphometric methods. Periventricular and deep white matter were assessed semiquantitatively. Differences in cognitive performances and structural data between BD and comparison groups were analyzed using paired t-test or analysis of variance. Wilcoxon test was used in the absence of normal distribution. RESULTS: Compared with healthy individuals, patients with BD obtained significantly lower performances in processing speed, working memory, and episodic memory but not in executive functions. Morphometric analyses did not show significant volumetric or white matter differences between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results revealed impairment in verbal memory, working memory, and processing speed in euthymic older adults with BD. These cognitive deficits are comparable both in terms of affected functions and size effects to those previously reported in younger cohorts with BD. Both this observation and the absence of structural brain abnormalities in our cohort do not support a progressively evolving neurotoxic effect in BD.

TNF-alpha-dependent loss of IKKbeta-deficient myeloid progenitors triggers a cytokine loop culminating in granulocytosis.

Loss of IκB kinase (IKK) β-dependent NF-κB signaling in hematopoietic cells is associated with increased granulopoiesis. Here we identify a regulatory cytokine loop that causes neutrophilia in Ikkβ-deficient mice. TNF-α-dependent apoptosis of myeloid progenitor cells leads to the release of IL-1β, which promotes Th17 polarization of peripheral CD4(+) T cells. Although the elevation of IL-17 and the consecutive induction of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor compensate for the loss of myeloid progenitor cells, the facilitated induction of Th17 cells renders Ikkβ-deficient animals more susceptible to the development of experimental autoimmune encephalitis. These results unravel so far unanticipated direct and indirect functions for IKKβ in myeloid progenitor survival and maintenance of innate and Th17 immunity and raise concerns about long-term IKKβ inhibition in IL-17-mediated diseases.

Modulation of the Endocannabinoids N-Arachidonoylethanolamine (AEA) and 2-Arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) on Executive Functions in Humans.

Animal studies point to an implication of the endocannabinoid system on executive functions. In humans, several studies have suggested an association between acute or chronic use of exogenous cannabinoids (Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol) and executive impairments. However, to date, no published reports establish the relationship between endocannabinoids, as biomarkers of the cannabinoid neurotransmission system, and executive functioning in humans. The aim of the present study was to explore the association between circulating levels of plasma endocannabinoids N-arachidonoylethanolamine (AEA) and 2-Arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) and executive functions (decision making, response inhibition and cognitive flexibility) in healthy subjects. One hundred and fifty seven subjects were included and assessed with the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test; Stroop Color and Word Test; and Iowa Gambling Task. All participants were female, aged between 18 and 60 years and spoke Spanish as their first language. Results showed a negative correlation between 2-AG and cognitive flexibility performance (r = -.37; p<.05). A positive correlation was found between AEA concentrations and both cognitive flexibility (r = .59; p<.05) and decision making performance (r = .23; P<.05). There was no significant correlation between either 2-AG (r = -.17) or AEA (r = -.08) concentrations and inhibition response. These results show, in humans, a relevant modulation of the endocannabinoid system on prefrontal-dependent cognitive functioning. The present study might have significant implications for the underlying executive alterations described in some psychiatric disorders currently associated with endocannabinoids deregulation (namely drug abuse/dependence, depression, obesity and eating disorders). Understanding the neurobiology of their dysexecutive profile might certainly contribute to the development of new treatments and pharmacological approaches.

CYR61 and alphaVbeta5 integrin cooperate to promote invasion and metastasis of tumors growing in preirradiated stroma.

Radiotherapy is widely used to treat human cancer. Patients locally recurring after radiotherapy, however, have increased risk of metastatic progression and poor prognosis. The clinical management of postradiation recurrences remains an unresolved issue. Tumors growing in preirradiated tissues have an increased fraction of hypoxic cells and are more metastatic, a condition known as tumor bed effect. The transcription factor hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1 promotes invasion and metastasis of hypoxic tumors, but its role in the tumor bed effect has not been reported. Here, we show that tumor cells derived from SCCVII and HCT116 tumors growing in a preirradiated bed, or selected in vitro through repeated cycles of severe hypoxia, retain invasive and metastatic capacities when returned to normoxia. HIF activity, although facilitating metastatic spreading of tumors growing in a preirradiated bed, is not essential. Through gene expression profiling and gain- and loss-of-function experiments, we identified the matricellular protein CYR61 and alphaVbeta5 integrin as proteins cooperating to mediate these effects. The anti-alphaV integrin monoclonal antibody 17E6 and the small molecular alphaVbeta3/alphaVbeta5 integrin inhibitor EMD121974 suppressed invasion and metastasis induced by CYR61 and attenuated metastasis of tumors growing within a preirradiated field. These results represent a conceptual advance to the understanding of the tumor bed effect and identify CYR61 and alphaVbeta5 integrin as proteins that cooperate to mediate metastasis. They also identify alphaV integrin inhibition as a potential therapeutic approach for preventing metastasis in patients at risk for postradiation recurrences.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Patients' and physicians' preferences for type 2 diabetes mellitus treatments in Spain and Portugal: a discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE To assess Spanish and Portuguese patients' and physicians' preferences regarding type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) treatments and the monthly willingness to pay (WTP) to gain benefits or avoid side effects. METHODS An observational, multicenter, exploratory study focused on routine clinical practice in Spain and Portugal. Physicians were recruited from multiple hospitals and outpatient clinics, while patients were recruited from eleven centers operating in the public health care system in different autonomous communities in Spain and Portugal. Preferences were measured via a discrete choice experiment by rating multiple T2DM medication attributes. Data were analyzed using the conditional logit model. RESULTS Three-hundred and thirty (n=330) patients (49.7% female; mean age 62.4 [SD: 10.3] years, mean T2DM duration 13.9 [8.2] years, mean body mass index 32.5 [6.8] kg/m(2), 41.8% received oral + injected medication, 40.3% received oral, and 17.6% injected treatments) and 221 physicians from Spain and Portugal (62% female; mean age 41.9 [SD: 10.5] years, 33.5% endocrinologists, 66.5% primary-care doctors) participated. Patients valued avoiding a gain in bodyweight of 3 kg/6 months (WTP: €68.14 [95% confidence interval: 54.55-85.08]) the most, followed by avoiding one hypoglycemic event/month (WTP: €54.80 [23.29-82.26]). Physicians valued avoiding one hypoglycemia/week (WTP: €287.18 [95% confidence interval: 160.31-1,387.21]) the most, followed by avoiding a 3 kg/6 months gain in bodyweight and decreasing cardiovascular risk (WTP: €166.87 [88.63-843.09] and €154.30 [98.13-434.19], respectively). Physicians and patients were willing to pay €125.92 (73.30-622.75) and €24.28 (18.41-30.31), respectively, to avoid a 1% increase in glycated hemoglobin, and €143.30 (73.39-543.62) and €42.74 (23.89-61.77) to avoid nausea. CONCLUSION Both patients and physicians in Spain and Portugal are willing to pay for the health benefits associated with improved diabetes treatment, the most important being to avoid hypoglycemia and gaining weight. Decreased cardiovascular risk and weight reduction became the third most valued attributes for physicians and patients, respectively.

ROCK Inhibitor Enhances Adhesion and Wound Healing of Human Corneal Endothelial Cells.

Maintenance of corneal transparency is crucial for vision and depends mainly on the endothelium, a non-proliferative monolayer of cells covering the inner part of the cornea. When endothelial cell density falls below a critical threshold, the barrier and "pump" functions of the endothelium are compromised which results in corneal oedema and loss of visual acuity. The conventional treatment for such severe disorder is corneal graft. Unfortunately, there is a worldwide shortage of donor corneas, necessitating amelioration of tissue survival and storage after harvesting. Recently it was reported that the ROCK inhibitor Y-27632 promotes adhesion, inhibits apoptosis, increases the number of proliferating monkey corneal endothelial cells in vitro and enhance corneal endothelial wound healing both in vitro and in vivo in animal models. Using organ culture human cornea (N = 34), the effect of ROCK inhibitor was evaluated in vitro and ex vivo. Toxicity, corneal endothelial cell density, cell proliferation, apoptosis, cell morphometry, adhesion and wound healing process were evaluated by live/dead assay standard cell counting method, EdU labelling, Ki67, Caspase3, Zo-1 and Actin immunostaining. We demonstrated for the first time in human corneal endothelial cells ex vivo and in vitro, that ROCK inhibitor did not induce any toxicity effect and did not alter cell viability. ROCK inhibitor treatment did not induce human corneal endothelial cells proliferation. However, ROCK inhibitor significantly enhanced adhesion and wound healing. The present study shows that the selective ROCK inhibitor Y-27632 has no effect on human corneal endothelial cells proliferative capacities, but alters cellular behaviours. It induces changes in cell shape, increases cell adhesion and enhances wound healing ex vivo and in vitro. Its absence of toxicity, as demonstrated herein, is relevant for its use in human therapy.