A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Von Willebrand Factor Improves Risk Prediction in Addition to N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients Referred to Coronary Angiography and Signs and Symptoms of Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a growing health burden associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Consequently, risk prediction is of highest importance. Endothelial dysfunction has been recently shown to play an important role in the complex pathophysiology of HFpEF. We therefore aimed to assess von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of endothelial damage, as potential biomarker for risk assessment in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Concentrations of vWF were assessed in 457 patients with HFpEF enrolled as part of the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. All-cause mortality was observed in 40% of patients during a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. vWF significantly predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) per increase of 1 SD of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.68; P<0.001) and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), renal function, and frequent HFpEF-related comorbidities (adjusted HR per 1 SD, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.42; P=0.001). Most notably, vWF showed additional prognostic value beyond that achievable with NT-proBNP indicated by improvements in C-Statistic (vWF×NT-proBNP: 0.65 versus NT-proBNP: 0.63; P for comparison, 0.004) and category-free net reclassification index (37.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS vWF is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with HFpEF, which is in line with endothelial dysfunction as potential mediator in the pathophysiology of HFpEF. In particular, combined assessment of vWF and NT-proBNP improved risk prediction in this vulnerable group of patients.

In vitro-ex vivo model systems for nanosafety assessment

Engineered nanomaterials have unique and novel properties enabling wide-ranging new applications in nearly all fields of research. As these new properties have raised concerns about potential adverse effects for the environment and human health, extensive efforts are underway to define reliable, cost- and time-effective, as well as mechanistic-based testing strategies to replace the current method of animal testing, which is still the most prevalent model used for the risk assessment of chemicals. Current approaches for nanomaterials follow this line. The aim of this review is to explore and qualify the relevance of new in vitro and ex vivo models in (nano)material safety assessment, a crucial prerequisite for translation into applications.

Improving the health and well-being of women at risk for neural tube defect recurrence

There is growing interest in providing women with internatal care, a package of healthcare and ancillary services that can improve their health during the period after the termination of one pregnancy but before the conception of the next pregnancy. Women who have had a pregnancy affected by a neural tube defect can especially benefit from internatal care because they are at increased risk for recurrence and improvements to their health during the inter-pregnancy period can prevent future negative birth outcomes. The dissertation provides three papers that inform the content of internatal care for women at risk for recurrence by examining descriptive epidemiology to develop an accurate risk profile of the population, assessing whether women at risk for recurrence would benefit from a psychosocial intervention, and determining how to improve health promotion efforts targeting folic acid use.^ Paper one identifies information relevant for developing risk profiles and conducting risk assessments. A number of investigations have found that the risk for neural tube defects differs between non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics. To understand the risk difference, the descriptive epidemiology of spina bifida and anencephaly was examined for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites based on data from the Texas Birth Defects Registry for the years 1999 through 2004. Crude and adjusted birth prevalence ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated between descriptive epidemiologic characteristics and anencephaly and spina bifida for non-Hispanic Whites and for Hispanics. In both race/ethnic groups, anencephaly expressed an inverse relationship with maternal age and a positive linear relationship with parity. Both relationships were stronger in non-Hispanic Whites. Female infants had a higher risk for anencephaly in non-Hispanic Whites. Lower maternal education was associated with increased risk for spina bifida in Hispanics.^ Paper two assesses the need for a psychosocial intervention. For mothers who have children with spina bifida, the transition to motherhood can be stressful. This qualitative study explored the process of becoming a mother to a child with spina bifida focusing particularly on stress and coping in the immediate postnatal environment. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six mothers who have children with spina bifida. Mothers were asked about their initial emotional and problem-based coping efforts, the quality and kind of support provided by health providers, and the characteristics of their meaning-based coping efforts; questions matched Transactional Model of Stress and Coping (TMSC) constructs. Analysis of the responses revealed a number of modifiable stress and coping transactions, the most salient being: health providers are in a position to address beliefs about self-causality and prevent mothers from experiencing the repercussions that stem from maintaining these beliefs. ^ Paper three identifies considerations when creating health promotion materials targeting folic acid use. A brochure was designed using concepts from the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM). Three focus groups comprising 26 mothers of children with spina bifida evaluated the brochure. One focus group was conducted in Spanish-only, the other two focus groups were conducted in English and Spanish combined. Qualitative analysis of coded transcripts revealed that a brochure is a helpful adjunct. Questions about folic acid support the inclusion of an insert with basic information. There may be a need to develop different educational material for Hispanics so the importance of folic acid is provided in a situational context. Some participants blamed themselves for their pregnancy outcome which may affect their receptivity to messages in the brochure. The women's desire for photographs that affect their perception of threat and their identification with the second role model indicate they belong to PAPM Stage 2 and 3. Participants preferred colorful envelopes, high quality paper, intimidating photographs, simple words, conversational style sentences, and positive messages.^ These papers develop the content of risk assessment, psychosocial intervention, and health promotion components of internatal care as they apply to women at risk for recurrence. The findings provided evidence for considering parity and maternal age when assessing nutritional risk. The two dissimilarities between the two race/ethnic groups, infant sex and maternal education lent support to creating separate risk profiles. Interviews with mothers of children with spina bifida revealed the existence of unmet needs-suggesting that a psychosocial intervention provided as part of internatal care can strengthen and support women's well-being. Segmenting the audience according to race/ethnicity and PAPM stage can improve the relevance of print materials promoting folic acid use.^

Systematic review of genetic risk score in coronary heart disease and other diseases

In order to better take advantage of the abundant results from large-scale genomic association studies, investigators are turning to a genetic risk score (GRS) method in order to combine the information from common modest-effect risk alleles into an efficient risk assessment statistic. The statistical properties of these GRSs are poorly understood. As a first step toward a better understanding of GRSs, a systematic analysis of recent investigations using a GRS was undertaken. GRS studies were searched in the areas of coronary heart disease (CHD), cancer, and other common diseases using bibliographic databases and by hand-searching reference lists and journals. Twenty-one independent case-control studies, cohort studies, and simulation studies (12 in CHD, 9 in other diseases) were identified. The underlying statistical assumptions of the GRS using the experience of the Framingham risk score were investigated. Improvements in the construction of a GRS guided by the concept of composite indicators are discussed. The GRS will be a promising risk assessment tool to improve prediction and diagnosis of common diseases.^

A modelling language for the resilience assessment of networked systems of systems

Systems of Systems (SoS) present challenging features and existing tools result often inadequate for their analysis, especially for heteregeneous networked infrastructures. Most accident scenarios in networked systems cannot be addressed by a simplistic black or white (i.e. functioning or failed) approach. Slow deviations from nominal operation conditions may cause degraded behaviours that suddenly end up into unexpected malfunctioning, with large portions of the network affected. In this paper,we present a language for modelling networked SoS. The language makes it possible to represent interdependencies of various natures, e.g. technical, organizational and human. The representation of interdependencies is based on control relationships that exchange physical quantities and related information. The language also makes it possible the identification of accident scenarios, by representing the propagation of failure events throughout the network. The results can be used for assessing the effectiveness of those mechanisms and measures that contribute to the overall resilience, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. The presented modelling methodology is general enough to be applied in combination with already existing system analysis techniques, such as risk assessment, dependability and performance evaluation

Probabilistic meta-analysis of risk from the exposure to Hg in artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia

Colombia is one of the largest per capita mercury polluters in the world as a consequence of its artisanal gold mining activities. The severity of this problem in terms of potential health effects was evaluated by means of a probabilistic risk assessment carried out in the twelve departments (or provinces) in Colombia with the largest gold production. The two exposure pathways included in the risk assessment were inhalation of elemental Hg vapors and ingestion of fish contaminated with methyl mercury. Exposure parameters for the adult population (especially rates of fish consumption) were obtained from nation-wide surveys and concentrations of Hg in air and of methyl-mercury in fish were gathered from previous scientific studies. Fish consumption varied between departments and ranged from 0 to 0.3 kg d?1. Average concentrations of total mercury in fish (70 data) ranged from 0.026 to 3.3 lg g?1. A total of 550 individual measurements of Hg in workshop air (ranging from menor queDL to 1 mg m?3) and 261 measurements of Hg in outdoor air (ranging from menor queDL to 0.652 mg m?3) were used to generate the probability distributions used as concentration terms in the calculation of risk. All but two of the distributions of Hazard Quotients (HQ) associated with ingestion of Hg-contaminated fish for the twelve regions evaluated presented median values higher than the threshold value of 1 and the 95th percentiles ranged from 4 to 90. In the case of exposure to Hg vapors, minimum values of HQ for the general population exceeded 1 in all the towns included in this study, and the HQs for miner-smelters burning the amalgam is two orders of magnitude higher, reaching values of 200 for the 95th percentile. Even acknowledging the conservative assumptions included in the risk assessment and the uncertainties associated with it, its results clearly reveal the exorbitant levels of risk endured not only by miner-smelters but also by the general population of artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia.

Assessment of damage domains of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR)

This paper presents an assessment analysis of damage domains of the 30 MWth prototype High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) operated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). For this purpose, an in-house deterministic risk assessment computational tool was developed based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD). To illustrate the methodology and applicability of the developed modelling approach, assessment results of a control rod (CR) withdrawal accident during subcritical conditions are presented and compared with those obtained by the JAEA.

Estudio de los parámetros necesarios para establecer las medidas de actuación por tipos de buques en situaciones de emergencia después de un accidente

La “Actuación en la Crisis”, objetivo principal de esta tesis, trata de establecer y concretar los procedimientos y apoyos desde tierra y a bordo de los buques, tanto técnicos como operacionales, a seguir por el Capitán y tripulación de un buque después de un accidente, en especial cuando el buque tiene un riesgo importante de hundimiento o necesidad de abandono. La aparición de este concepto es relativamente reciente, es decir desde el año 1995, después de los estudios y propuestas realizados, por el Panel de Expertos de IMO, como consecuencia del hundimiento del buque de pasaje y carga rodada, Estonia, en el que perdieron la vida más de 850 personas a finales de Septiembre de 1994. Entre las propuestas recomendadas y aceptadas por los gobiernos en la Conferencia Internacional SOLAS 1995, figuraba este concepto novedoso, que luego fue adoptado de una forma generalizada para todos los tipos de buques, que hasta entonces sólo disponían de documentos dispersos y a veces contradictorios para la actuación en estos momentos de peligro, que dio lugar a un profundo tratamiento de este problema, que iba a afectar a los buques, tanto en los conceptos y parámetros de proyecto, como a la propia operación del buque. La tesis desarrolla los fundamentos, estado del arte, implantación y consecuencias sobre la configuración y explotación del buque, que han dado lugar a una serie de documentos, que se han incluido en diversos Convenios Internacionales, Códigos y otros documentos de obligada aplicación en la industria naval generados en IMO (SOLAS, Retorno Seguro a Puerto, Plano y Libro de Control de Averías, ISM). La consecuencia más novedosa e interesante de este concepto ha sido la necesidad de disponer cada compañía explotadora del buque, de un servicio importante de “apoyo en la crisis”, que ha dado lugar a implantar un “servicio de emergencia especial”, disponible las 24 horas del día y 365 de año que ofrecen las Sociedades de Clasificación. El know-how de los accidentes que tratan estos servicios, hacen que se puedan establecer ciertas recomendaciones, que se centran, en que el buque tenga, por sus propios medios, una posibilidad de aumentar el KM después de una avería, la garantía de la resistencia estructural adecuada y el aumento del tiempo de hundimiento o el tiempo de mantenimiento a flote (otro tipo de averías vinculadas con la maquinaria, equipo o protección y lucha contra incendios, no son objeto de tesis). Las conclusiones obtenidas, son objeto de discusión especialmente en IACS e IMO, con el fin de establecer las aplicaciones pertinentes, que permitan dar al buque una mayor seguridad. Como objetivo principal de esta tesis es establecer estos puntos de mejora consecuencia de esta actuación en la crisis, con la aportación de varias soluciones que mejorarían los problemas mencionados para los tres tipos de buques que consideramos más importantes (pasaje, petroleros y bulkcarriers) La tesis recorre, desde el principio en 1995, la evolución de esta actuación en la crisis, hasta el momento actual., los puntos básicos que se establecen, que van muy de la mano de la llamada “cultura de seguridad”, objetivo nacido durante los años 90, con el fin de implantar una filosofía distinta para abordar el tratamiento de la seguridad del buque, a la que se venía aplicando hasta el momento, en donde se contemplaba tratar el tema de forma singular y específica para cada caso. La nueva filosofía, trataba de analizar el problema, desde un aspecto global y por tanto horizontal, realizando un estudio exhaustivo de las consecuencias que tendría la aplicación de una nueva medida correctora, en los restantes equipos y sistemas del buque., relativos al proyecto, configuración, operación y explotación del buque. Se describen de manera sucinta las profundas investigaciones a que dio lugar todo lo anterior, estando muchas de ellas, vinculadas a grandes proyectos europeos. La mayor parte de estos proyectos fueron subvencionados por la Comunidad Económica Europea durante la primera década del siglo actual. Dentro de estas investigaciones, donde hay que destacar la participación de todos los agentes del sector marítimo europeo, se hacen imprescindibles la utilización de dos herramientas novedosas para nuestro sector, como son el “Estudio de Riesgos” y la “Evaluación de la Seguridad”, más conocida técnicamente por su nombre ingles “Safety Assessment”, cuyos principios también son incluidos en la tesis. Además se especifican las bases sobre las que se establecen la estabilidad intacta y en averías, con nuevos conceptos, no tratados nunca hasta entonces, como la “altura crítica de agua en cubierta” para la cual el buque se hundiría sin remisión, “estado de la mar” en la que se puede encontrar el buque averiado, el cálculo del tiempo de hundimiento, u otros aspectos como el corrimiento de la carga, o bien el tratamiento de los problemas dinámicos en el nuevo “Código de Estabilidad Intacta”. Con respecto a la resistencia estructural, especialmente el estudio de la “resistencia estructural después de la avería”, que tiene en cuenta el estado de la mar en la que se encontraría el buque afectado. Se analizan los tipos de buques mencionados uno por uno y se sacan, como aportación fundamental de esta tesis, separadamente, las acciones y propuestas a aplicar a estos buques. En primer lugar, las relativas al proyecto y configuración del buque y en segundo lugar, las de operación, explotación y mantenimiento, con el fin de acometer, con garantías de éxito, la respuesta a la ayuda en emergencia y la solución a la difícil situación que pueden tener lugar en condiciones extremas. Para ver el efecto de algunas de las propuestas que se incluyen, se realizan y aplican concretamente, a un buque de pasaje de carga rodada, a un petrolero y a un bulkcarrier, para demostrar el mejor comportamiento de estos buques en situación de emergencia. Para ello se han elegido un buque ejemplo para cada tipo, efectuándose los cálculos de estabilidad y resistencia longitudinal y comparar la situación, en la que quedaría el buque averiado, antes y después de la avería. La tesis se completa con una estadística real de buques averiados de cada uno de estos tres tipos, distinguiendo el tipo de incidente y el número de los buques que lo han sufrido, considerándose como más importantes los incidentes relacionados con varadas, colisiones y fuego resumiéndose lo más relevante de esta aportación también importante de esta tesis. ABSTRACT The "Response in an emergency" is the main objective of this thesis, it seeks to establish and define procedures for technical and operational support onboard and shore, to be followed by the captain and crew on of a ship after an accident, especially when the ship has a significant risk of sinking or a need to abandon it. The emergence of this concept is relatively recent, in 1995, after studies and proposals made by the Panel of Experts IMO, following the sinking of the “Estonia” vessel, where more than 850 people died in late September 1994. In the International Convention SOLAS 1995, among the recommended proposals and accepted regulations, this new concept was included, which was later adopted for all types of ships which until then had only scattered some documents, sometimes including contradictory actions in emergency situations. This led to a profound treatment of this problem, which would affect the vessels in both the concepts and design parameters, as to the proper operation of the vessel. The thesis develops the foundations, state of the art, implementation and consequences on the design and operation of the vessel, this has led to a series of Circulars and Regulations included in several International Codes and Conventions issued by IMO which are required to be complied with (SOLAS Safe Return to Port, Damage Control Plan and Booklet, ISM). The most novel and interesting consequence of this concept has been the need for every company operating the ship to have a shore based support service in emergency situations which has led to implement special emergency services offered by Class Societies which are available 24 hours a day, 365 days per year. The know-how of these services dealing with all types of accidents can establish certain recommendations, which focus on the ship capability to increase the KM after damage. It can also be determined adequate structural strength and the increase of the capsizing time or time afloat (other types of damages associated with the machinery, equipment or firefighting, are not the subject of this thesis). The conclusions are discussed especially in IACS and IMO, in order to establish appropriate applications to improve the security of the vessels. The main objective of this thesis is to establish actions to improve emergency actions, resulting from different responses in the crisis, with the contribution of several solutions that improve the problems mentioned for three types of ships that we consider most important (passenger vessels, tankers and bulk carriers) The thesis runs from the beginning in 1995 to date, the evolution of the response on the crisis. The basics established during the 90s with the "safety culture" in order to implement a different philosophy to address the treatment of the safety of the ship, which was being previously implemented, as something singular and specific to each case. The new philosophy tried to analyse the problem from a global perspective, doing an exhaustive study of the consequences of the implementation of the new regulation in the ship systems and equipment related to the design, configuration and operation of the vessel. Extensive investigations which led to the above are described, many of them being linked to major European projects. Most of these projects were funded by the European Union during the first decade of this century. Within these investigations, which it must be highlighted the participation of all players in the European maritime sector, a necessity to use two new tools for our industry, such as the "Risk Assessment" and "Safety Assessment" whose principles are also included in the thesis. The intact and damage stability principles are established including new concepts, never treated before, as the "critical height of water on deck" for which the ship would sink without remission, "sea state" where the damaged vessel can be found, calculation of capsizing time, or other aspects such cargo shifting or treatment of dynamic problems in the new Intact Stability Code in development. Regarding the structural strength, it has to be especially considered the study of the "residual strength after damage", which takes into account the state of the sea where the vessel damaged can be found. Ship types mentioned are analysed one by one, as a fundamental contribution of this thesis, different actions and proposals are established to apply to these types of vessels. First, those ones relating to the design and configuration of the vessel and also the ones related to the operation and maintenance in order to support successfully responses to emergency situations which may occur in extreme situations. Some of the proposals are applied specifically to a RoRo passenger ship, an oil tanker and a bulkcarrier, to demonstrate the improved performance of these vessels damaged. An example for each type vessel has been chosen, carrying out stability and longitudinal strength calculations comparing the situation of the ship before and after damage. The thesis is completed with incidents statics for each of these three types, distinguishing the type of incident and the number of ships having it. The most important incidents considered are the ones related to groundings, collisions and fire being this other relevant contribution of this thesis.

In-House Risk

Over the last thirty years or so, as the number of in-house counsel rose and their role increased in scope and prominence, increased attention has been given the various challenges these lawyers face under the ABA Model Rules of Professional Conduct, from figuring out who is the client the in-house lawyer represents, to navigating conflicts of interest, maintaining independence, and engaging in a multijurisdictional practice of law. Less attention, to date, has been given to business risk assessment, perhaps in part because that function appears to be part of in-house counsel’s role as a business person rather than as a lawyer. Overlooking the role of in-house counsel in assessing risk, however, is a risky proposition, because risk assessment constitutes for some in-house counsel a significant aspect of their role, a role that in turn informs and shapes how in-house counsel perform other more overtly legal tasks. For example, wearing her hat as General Counsel, a lawyer for the entity-client may opine and explain issues of compliance with the law. Wearing her hat as the Chief Legal Officer, however, the same lawyer may now be called upon as a member of business management to participate in the decision whether to comply with the law. After outlining some of the traditional challenges faced by in-house counsel under the Rules, this short essay explores risk assessment by in-house counsel and its impact on their role and function under the Rules. It argues that the key to in-house lawyers’ successful navigation of multiple roles, and, in particular, to their effective assessment of business risk is keen awareness of the various hats they are called upon to wear. Navigating these various roles may not be easy for lawyers, whose training and habits of mind often teach them to zoom in on legal risks to the exclusion of business risks. Indeed, law schools continue to teach law students “to think like a lawyer” and law firms, the historical breeding grounds for in-house counsel positions, in a world of increased specialization master the narrower contemplation of legal questions. Yet the present and future of in-house counsel practice demand of its practitioners the careful and gradual coming to terms, buildup and mastery of business risk analysis skills, alongside the cultivation of traditional legal risk analysis tools.

Health assessment document for 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related compounds.

"Draft, do not quote or cite."

Environmental equity : reducing risk for all communities /

"This report to the Administrator reviews existing data on the distribution of environmental exposures and risks across population groups. It also summarizes the Workgroup's review of EPA programs with respect to racial minority and low-income populations."--Introduction.

Risk management recommendations for dioxin contamination at Midland, Michigan.

Project manager: Gary Amendola

Public health assessment, Kessman/Cross County Landfill, Patterson, Putnam County, New York /

"CERCLIS no. NYD980528491."