Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Statistical modeling to determine resonant frequency information present in combustion chamber pressure signals

A statistical modeling method to accurately determine combustion chamber resonance is proposed and demonstrated. This method utilises Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) through the use of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm to yield a probability density function for the combustion chamber frequency and find the best estimate of the resonant frequency, along with uncertainty. The accurate determination of combustion chamber resonance is then used to investigate various engine phenomena, with appropriate uncertainty, for a range of engine cycles. It is shown that, when operating on various ethanol/diesel fuel combinations, a 20% substitution yields the least amount of inter-cycle variability, in relation to combustion chamber resonance.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Azoporphyrin : the porphyrin analogue of azobenzene

Azobenzenes (1,2-diaryldiazenes) are very important organic pigments, and they have a unique place in the field of photoresponsive conjugated molecules due to their (usually) reversible E/Z photoisomerisation. The current intense interest in molecular analogues of mechanical components and information storage and processing elements has stimulated research into conjugated molecules whose shape and/or optical properties can be switched electro- or photochemically. Among the classes of conjugated pigments being explored in these contexts are the porphyrinoids, which offer advantages of intense light absorption, a variety of accessible oxidation states, and synthetic control of properties through peripheral or central substitution. Extension of porphyrinoid conjugation can be achieved by linking the peripheral carbons either by three direct bonds (as in the “porphyrin tapes” of Osuka et al.) or through potentially conjugating bridges such as alkenes or, even better, alkynes.

Fast hole surface conduction observed for indoline sensitizer dyes immobilized at fluorine-doped tin oxide - TiO2 surfaces

The indoline dyes D102, D131, D149, and D205 have been characterized when adsorved on fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) and TiO2 electrode surfaces. Adsorption from 50:50 acetonitrile - tert-butanol onto flourine-doped tin oxide (FTO) allows approximate Langmuirian binding constants of 6.5 x 10(4), 2.01 x 10(3), 2.0 x 10(4), and 1.5 x 10(4) mol-1 dm3, respectively, to be determined. Voltammetric data obtained in acetonitrile/0.1 M NBu4PF6 indicate reversible on-electron oxidation at Emid = 0.94, 0.91, 0.88, and 0.88 V vs Ag/AgCI(3 M KCI), respectively, with dye aggregation (at high coverage) causing additional peak features at more positive potentials. Slow chemical degradation processes and electron transfer catalysis for iodine oxidation were observed for all four oxidezed indolinium cations. When adsorbed onto TiO2 nanoparticle films (ca. 9nm particle diameter and ca.3/um thickness of FTO0, reversible voltammetric responses with Emid = 1.08, 1.156, 0.92 and 0.95 V vs Ag/AgCI(3 M KCI), respectively, suggest exceptionally fast hole hopping diffusion (with Dapp > 5 x 10(-9) m2 s-1) for adsorbed layers of four indoline dyes, presumably due to pie-pie stacking in surface aggregates. Slow dye degradation is shown to affect charge transport via electron hopping. Spectrelectrochemical data for the adsorbed indoline dyes on FTO-TiO2 revealed a red-shift of absorption peaks after oxidation and the presence of a strong charge transfer band in the near-IR region. The implications of the indoline dye reactivity and fast hole mobility for solar cell devices are discussed.

Probabilistic subgroup identification using Bayesian finite mixture modelling : a case study in Parkinson’s disease phenotype identification

This article explores the use of probabilistic classification, namely finite mixture modelling, for identification of complex disease phenotypes, given cross-sectional data. In particular, if focuses on posterior probabilities of subgroup membership, a standard output of finite mixture modelling, and how the quantification of uncertainty in these probabilities can lead to more detailed analyses. Using a Bayesian approach, we describe two practical uses of this uncertainty: (i) as a means of describing a person’s membership to a single or multiple latent subgroups and (ii) as a means of describing identified subgroups by patient-centred covariates not included in model estimation. These proposed uses are demonstrated on a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), where latent subgroups are identified using multiple symptoms from the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS).

Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.

A Python package for Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation provides a solution to the complex integration problems that are faced in the Bayesian analysis of statistical problems. The implementation of MCMC algorithms is, however, code intensive and time consuming. We have developed a Python package, which is called PyMCMC, that aids in the construction of MCMC samplers and helps to substantially reduce the likelihood of coding error, as well as aid in the minimisation of repetitive code. PyMCMC contains classes for Gibbs, Metropolis Hastings, independent Metropolis Hastings, random walk Metropolis Hastings, orientational bias Monte Carlo and slice samplers as well as specific modules for common models such as a module for Bayesian regression analysis. PyMCMC is straightforward to optimise, taking advantage of the Python libraries Numpy and Scipy, as well as being readily extensible with C or Fortran.

Homodimerization controls the fibroblast growth factor 9 subfamily's receptor binding and heparan sulfate-dependent diffusion in the extracellular matrix

Uncontrolled fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signaling can lead to human diseases, necessitating multiple layers of self-regulatory control mechanisms to keep its activity in check. Herein, we demonstrate that FGF9 and FGF20 ligands undergo a reversible homodimerization, occluding their key receptor binding sites. To test the role of dimerization in ligand autoinhibition, we introduced structure-based mutations into the dimer interfaces of FGF9 and FGF20. The mutations weakened the ability of the ligands to dimerize, effectively increasing the concentrations of monomeric ligands capable of binding and activating their cognate FGF receptor in vitro and in living cells. Interestingly, the monomeric ligands exhibit reduced heparin binding, resulting in their increased radii of heparan sulfate-dependent diffusion and biologic action, as evidenced by the wider dilation area of ex vivo lung cultures in response to implanted mutant FGF9-loaded beads. Hence, our data demonstrate that homodimerization autoregulates FGF9 and FGF20's receptor binding and concentration gradients in the extracellular matrix. Our study is the first to implicate ligand dimerization as an autoregulatory mechanism for growth factor bioactivity and sets the stage for engineering modified FGF9 subfamily ligands, with desired activity for use in both basic and translational research.

The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

Photoinduced conjugation of Dithioester- and Trithiocarbonate-Functional RAFT polymers with alkenes

We report the photoinduced conjugation of polymers synthesized via reversible addition−fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization with a number of low molecular weight (functional) olefins. Upon irradiation of a solution of an aliphatic alkene and the benzyl dithioacetic acid ester (CPDA) or dodecyl trithiocarbonate (DoPAT) functional poly(alkyl acrylate) at the absorption wavelength of the thiocarbonyl group (315 nm), incorporation of the alkene at the polymer chain-end occurred. The most efficient systems identified with regard to the rate of reaction and yield were poly(butyl acrylate)/CPDA/ethyl vinyl ether (78% monoinsertion product after 1 h) and poly(butyl acrylate)/CPDA/1-pentene (73% insertion product after 7 h) at ambient temperature. An in-depth analysis of the reaction mechanism by 1H NMR and online size-exclusion chromatography-electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (SEC/ESI−MSn) revealed that a possible [2 + 2] photoaddition mechanism of conjugation does not take place. Instead, fast β-cleavage of the photoexcited RAFT-end group with subsequent radical addition of an alkene was observed for all employed systems. The presented reaction thus provides a means of spatial and temporal control for the conjugation of alkenes to thiocarbonyl thio-capped macromolecules via the use of UV radiation.

Formation of nanoporous materials via mild retro-Diels–Alder chemistry

Poly(styrene)-block-poly(ethylene oxide) copolymers synthesized via the combination of reversible addition fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization and hetero Diels–Alder (HDA) cycloaddition can be cleaved in the solid state by a retro-HDA reaction occurring at 90 °C. Nanoporous films can be prepared from these polymers using a simple heating and washing procedure.