Probabilistic failure modelling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration

Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

Nevo de células fusiformes de Reed na conjuntiva

Os autores relatam um caso de nevo de Reed, lesão que apresenta aspecto histológico de malignidade, mas tem evolução benigna. Paciente de 48 anos, masculino, cor parda, apresentava pterígio nasal no olho direito, associado a uma lesão pequena e pouco pigmentada localizada na cabeça do mesmo. Realizou-se exérese de ambos, sem intercorrências, sem sinais de recidiva. O exame histopatológico revelou lesão com bordas definidas, restrita ao epitélio, constituída por células fusiformes perpendiculares à superfície, com pigmentação melânica esparsa. O diagnóstico inicial foi nevo de Spitz, mas, posteriormente, chegou-se à conclusão que se tratava do nevo de células fusiformes de Reed. O presente relato é o segundo na literatura mundial e o primeiro no Brasil.

Effect of image resolution manipulation in rearfoot angle measurements obtained with photogrammetry

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of image resolution manipulation on the photogrammetric measurement of the rearfoot static angle. The study design was that of a reliability study. We evaluated 19 healthy young adults (11 females and 8 males). The photographs were taken at 1536 pixels in the greatest dimension, resized into four different resolutions (1200, 768, 600, 384 pixels) and analyzed by three equally trained examiners on a 96-pixels per inch (ppi) screen. An experienced physiotherapist marked the anatomic landmarks of rearfoot static angles on two occasions within a 1-week interval. Three different examiners had marked angles on digital pictures. The systematic error and the smallest detectable difference were calculated from the angle values between the image resolutions and times of evaluation. Different resolutions were compared by analysis of variance. Inter- and intra-examiner reliability was calculated by intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). The rearfoot static angles obtained by the examiners in each resolution were not different (P > 0.05); however, the higher the image resolution the better the inter-examiner reliability. The intra-examiner reliability (within a 1-week interval) was considered to be unacceptable for all image resolutions (ICC range: 0.08-0.52). The whole body image of an adult with a minimum size of 768 pixels analyzed on a 96-ppi screen can provide very good inter-examiner reliability for photogrammetric measurements of rearfoot static angles (ICC range: 0.85-0.92), although the intra-examiner reliability within each resolution was not acceptable. Therefore, this method is not a proper tool for follow-up evaluations of patients within a therapeutic protocol.

Bootstrap confidence intervals for industrial recurrent event data

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Economic analysis for oregano under irrigation considering economic risk factors

The oregano is a plant, rich in essential oil and very used as spice in the preparation of foods. The objective of this paper was to analyze the viability of irrigation for oregano in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo state, Brazil, including economic risk factors, their effect on irrigation total cost, as well as the different pumping kinds. The Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to study the economic factors: fixed cost, labor, maintenance, pumping and water. The use of irrigation for the oregano in the region of Presidente Prudente is indicated because of its economic feasibility and the reduced risks. The average values of the benefit/cost for all water depths tested were higher than 1, indicating viability. The use of irrigation promoted lower risks compared to the non irrigated crop. The micro irrigation system presented greater sensitivity to changes of prices of the equipment associated to the variation of the useful life of the system. The oregano selling price was the most important factor involved in annual net profit. The water cost was the factor of lesser influence on the total cost. Due to the characteristic of high drip irrigation frequency there was no difference between the tariffs based in use hour of electric energy classified as green and blue, which are characterized by applying different rates on the energy consumption and demand according to the hours of day and times of the year. For the studied region it was recommended drip irrigation water management of oregano with the daily application of 100% of pan evaporation Class A using electric motor with tariffs blue or green.

Estimulação elétrica de alta voltagem em nervo ciático de ratos: estudo pelo IFC

OBJETIVO: Analisar a eficiência do tratamento com a estimulação elétrica de alta voltagem (EEAV) em três diferentes locais, aplicada precocemente na regeneração do nervo ciático submetido à lesão por esmagamento, e avaliada através do índice funcional do ciático (IFC), em ratos. MÉTODO: Após o esmagamento, 57 ratos foram submetidos à EEAV catódica nos parâmetros: frequência de 50Hz, 100V de tensão, 20 minutos diários, 5 dias por semana. Os ratos foram divididos aleatoriamente em: grupo controle; grupo gânglio; grupo gânglio + músculo; grupo músculo e; grupo simulado. O IFC foi avaliado semanalmente durante sete semanas, partindo do pré-operatório até a 6ª semana pós-operatória. RESULTADOS: Em comparação ao grupo controle, os resultados mostraram desempenho significativamente superior do grupo gânglio nas três primeiras semanas, e do grupo gânglio + músculo na 3ª semana, enquanto o grupo músculo teve desempenho significativamente negativo na 4ª e 6ª semanas. CONCLUSÃO: a EEAV aplicada precocemente, foi positiva no tratamento da região da medula e gânglio da raiz nervosa do ciático com o eletrodo dispersivo na região lombar contralateral ou no músculo gastrocnêmio. Porém, proporcionou efeitos negativos no tratamento com eletrodo ativo no músculo gastrocnêmio e dispersivo na coxa contralateral. Nível de evidência II, Estudo prospectivo comparativo.

Caracterização bioclimática de sistemas ao ar livre e confinado para a criação de matrizes suínas gestantes

O confinamento de matrizes suínas foi criado com o intuito de maximizar a produtividade; entretanto, existem problemas relacionados ao bem-estar animal. Objetivou-se avaliar a criação de matrizes suínas gestantes no sistema de confinamento e ao ar livre, com relação ao ambiente térmico e às respostas fisiológicas. O experimento foi realizado em Monte Mor/SP. A avaliação fisiológica foi realizada por meio do registro das variáveis: frequência respiratória e temperatura de pele. Foram registradas as variáveis meteorológicas: temperatura de bulbo seco, temperatura de bulbo úmido e temperatura de globo negro, caracterizando o ambiente por meio da entalpia e índice de temperatura de globo e umidade. Foram utilizados seis animais por tratamento. O delineamento experimental foi inteiramente casualizado em parcelas subdivididas, e as médias comparadas pelo teste de Tukey. As variáveis fisiológicas e meteorológicas apresentaram valores superiores no confinamento. O sistema de criação ao ar livre potencializou as trocas térmicas entre os animais e o ambiente, o que refletiu em menor estresse por calor observado nos animais.

Modeling random corrosion processes via polynomial chaos expansion

Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a flexible tool to represent different types of random variables/processes. However, applications to real, experimental data are still limited. In this article, PCE is used to represent the random time-evolution of metal corrosion growth in marine environments. The PCE coefficients are determined in order to represent data of 45 corrosion coupons tested by Jeffrey and Melchers (2001) at Taylors Beach, Australia. Accuracy of the representation and possibilities for model extrapolation are considered in the study. Results show that reasonably accurate smooth representations of the corrosion process can be obtained. The representation is not better because a smooth model is used to represent non-smooth corrosion data. Random corrosion leads to time-variant reliability problems, due to resistance degradation over time. Time variant reliability problems are not trivial to solve, especially under random process loading. Two example problems are solved herein, showing how the developed PCE representations can be employed in reliability analysis of structures subject to marine corrosion. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to solve the resulting time-variant reliability problems. However, an accurate and more computationally efficient solution is also presented.

Loudness scattering due to vibro-acoustic model variability

The use of numerical simulation in the design and evaluation of products performance is ever increasing. To a greater extent, such estimates are needed in a early design stage, when physical prototypes are not available. When dealing with vibro-acoustic models, known to be computationally expensive, a question remains, which is related to the accuracy of such models in view of the well-know variability inherent to the mass manufacturing production techniques. In addition, both academia and industry have recently realized the importance of actually listening to a products sound, either by measurements or by virtual sound synthesis, in order to assess its performance. In this work, the scatter of significant parameter variations on a simplified vehicle vibro-acoustic model is calculated on loudness metrics using Monte Carlo analysis. The mapping from the system parameters to sound quality metric is performed by a fully-coupled vibro-acoustic finite element model. Different loudness metrics are used, including overall sound pressure level expressed in dB and Specific Loudness in Sones. Sound quality equivalent sources are used to excite this model and the sound pressure level at the driver's head position is acquired to be evaluated according to sound quality metrics. No significant variation has been perceived when evaluating the system using regular sound pressure level expressed in in dB and dB(A). This happens because of the third-octave filters that averages the results under some frequency bands. On the other hand, Zwicker Loudness presents important variations, arguably, due to the masking effects.

Estudo dos limiares de audibilidade nas altas frequências em trabalhadores da área odontológica

INTRODUÇÃO: Na prática odontológica, o Cirurgião-Dentista está sujeito aos efeitos nocivos provocados por diversos agentes, como pelo ruído emitido por seus instrumentos de trabalho. Em 1959, a American Dental Association recomendava avaliações audiométricas periódicas e uso de proteção auditiva. São necessárias maiores informações sobre o comportamento auditivo dessa população: Cirurgiões-Dentistas, Auxiliares e Protéticos para se propor medidas de prevenção e tratamento precoce. OBJETIVO: Investigar os limiares de audibilidade em Cirurgiões-Dentistas, Auxiliares e Protéticos. MÉTODO: Forma de estudo: Estudo Clínico.Participaram 108 profissionais, sendo 44 Cirurgiões-Dentistas (GI), 36 Auxiliares (G II) e 28 Protéticos (GIII). Foram realizadas: entrevista específica, meatoscopia, audiometria tonal convencional e de altas frequências, logoaudiometria, imitanciometria. RESULTADOS: A comparação entre as médias dos limiares evidenciaram piora com o aumento da frequência para os 3 grupos testados; para a média tritonal de 500 a 2000Hz, e 3000 a 6000 Hz, o GIII apresentou os piores limiares, já para a média das altas frequências (9000 a 16.000Hz) o GII apresentou os piores limiares. CONCLUSÃO: A avaliação audiológica convencional não identificou exames alterados para os três grupos testados, no entanto, o exame da avaliação audiológica complementar como a audiometria de altas frequências indicou maior sensibilidade na detecção precoce de alterações auditivas uma vez que a perda auditiva dessa população acomete as frequências que não são testadas nos exames convencionais. Dessa maneira enfatizamos nesse trabalho a necessidade de inserir na rotina de exames a audiometria de altas frequências juntamente com os outros exames audiológicos.

Reliability algorithms applied to reinforced concrete structures durability assessment

This paper addresses the analysis of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to ions chloride penetration. Structural durability is an important criterion which must be evaluated in every type of structure, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. Considering reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate the durability. Therefore, at modelling this phenomenon, corrosion of reinforcements can be better estimated and prevented. These processes begin when a threshold level of chlorides concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in the literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due to the inherently randomness observed in this process. In this regard, the durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. A probabilistic analysis of ions chloride penetration is presented in this paper. The ions chloride penetration is simulated using the Fick's second law of diffusion. This law represents the chloride diffusion process, considering time dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena and a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

Flashes intermitentes: a presença da fotografia em Dom Casmurro

O presente artigo parte do tema da fotografia para valer-se dele como modo de compreensão do narrador em Dom Casmurro, romance publicado por Machado de Assis em 1899. Através do levantamento de passagens do enredo centradas em algum retrato (englobando nessa categoria pinturas e fotografias), desenvolve-se a noção de "narração-fotográfica", que visa enfatizar a reiteração de hipóteses e rememorações realizadas pela personagem Bentinho a partir de instantes cristalizados no tempo. A necessidade de posse através do apego às imagens, assim como aos momentos vividos relembrados pela memória, destaca a luta interior da personagem contra o esquecimento de momentos, a solidão e a condição efêmera da vida.

The Gemini NICI planet-finding campaign: the frequency of giant planets around young B and A stars

We have carried out high contrast imaging of 70 young, nearby B and A stars to search for brown dwarf and planetary companions as part of the Gemini NICI Planet-Finding Campaign. Our survey represents the largest, deepest survey for planets around high-mass stars (≈1.5-2.5 M ☉) conducted to date and includes the planet hosts β Pic and Fomalhaut. We obtained follow-up astrometry of all candidate companions within 400 AU projected separation for stars in uncrowded fields and identified new low-mass companions to HD 1160 and HIP 79797. We have found that the previously known young brown dwarf companion to HIP 79797 is itself a tight (3 AU) binary, composed of brown dwarfs with masses 58$^{+21}_{-20}$ M Jup and 55$^{+20}_{-19}$ M Jup, making this system one of the rare substellar binaries in orbit around a star. Considering the contrast limits of our NICI data and the fact that we did not detect any planets, we use high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations to show that fewer than 20% of 2 M ☉ stars can have giant planets greater than 4 M Jup between 59 and 460 AU at 95% confidence, and fewer than 10% of these stars can have a planet more massive than 10 M Jup between 38 and 650 AU. Overall, we find that large-separation giant planets are not common around B and A stars: fewer than 10% of B and A stars can have an analog to the HR 8799 b (7 M Jup, 68 AU) planet at 95% confidence. We also describe a new Bayesian technique for determining the ages of field B and A stars from photometry and theoretical isochrones. Our method produces more plausible ages for high-mass stars than previous age-dating techniques, which tend to underestimate stellar ages and their uncertainties.

Stochastic lattice model describing a vector-borne disease

We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).