Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^

The Effect of Proximity, Explicitness, and Representation of Basic Science Information on Student Clinical Problem-Solving

Problem: Medical and veterinary students memorize facts but then have difficulty applying those facts in clinical problem solving. Cognitive engineering research suggests that the inability of medical and veterinary students to infer concepts from facts may be due in part to specific features of how information is represented and organized in educational materials. First, physical separation of pieces of information may increase the cognitive load on the student. Second, information that is necessary but not explicitly stated may also contribute to the student’s cognitive load. Finally, the types of representations – textual or graphical – may also support or hinder the student’s learning process. This may explain why students have difficulty applying biomedical facts in clinical problem solving. Purpose: To test the hypothesis that three specific aspects of expository text – the patial distance between the facts needed to infer a rule, the explicitness of information, and the format of representation – affected the ability of students to solve clinical problems. Setting: The study was conducted in the parasitology laboratory of a college of veterinary medicine in Texas. Sample: The study subjects were a convenience sample consisting of 132 second-year veterinary students who matriculated in 2007. The age of this class upon admission ranged from 20-52, and the gender makeup of this class consisted of approximately 75% females and 25% males. Results: No statistically significant difference in student ability to solve clinical problems was found when relevant facts were placed in proximity, nor when an explicit rule was stated. Further, no statistically significant difference in student ability to solve clinical problems was found when students were given different representations of material, including tables and concept maps. Findings: The findings from this study indicate that the three properties investigated – proximity, explicitness, and representation – had no statistically significant effect on student learning as it relates to clinical problem-solving ability. However, ad hoc observations as well as findings from other researchers suggest that the subjects were probably using rote learning techniques such as memorization, and therefore were not attempting to infer relationships from the factual material in the interventions, unless they were specifically prompted to look for patterns. A serendipitous finding unrelated to the study hypothesis was that those subjects who correctly answered questions regarding functional (non-morphologic) properties, such as mode of transmission and intermediate host, at the family taxonomic level were significantly more likely to correctly answer clinical case scenarios than were subjects who did not correctly answer questions regarding functional properties. These findings suggest a strong relationship (p < .001) between well-organized knowledge of taxonomic functional properties and clinical problem solving ability. Recommendations: Further study should be undertaken investigating the relationship between knowledge of functional taxonomic properties and clinical problem solving ability. In addition, the effect of prompting students to look for patterns in instructional material, followed by the effect of factors that affect cognitive load such as proximity, explicitness, and representation, should be explored.

The number and timing of time -dependent covariate measurements for the Cox regression model

The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^

The C37 alkenone record of sea water of time series station DYNAPROC

The concentrations of suspended particulate pigments, C37-C38 alkenones, total organic carbon and nitrogen in the Ligurian Sea (northwestern Mediterranean) have been studied at 5 and 30 m depth during well defined thermocline conditions. An accurate description of the short term changes of these compounds has been achieved by means of four 36-h sampling cycles each encompassing consecutive filtration periods of 4 h. During sampling the thermocline changes were followed closely by simultaneous measurements of water column temperature, salinity and other physical parameters. The analysis of the collected samples indicates that the Haptophyte pigments and alkenones are essentially synthesized at the levels of highest primary production and therefore the C37 alkenone record reflects the seawater temperature at this depth level. The study also shows that part of these alkenones are distributed throughout the water column in association to the suspended particles. This process results in C37 alkenone distributions that, due to their high resistance to chemical and microbial degradation, record the temperature of the highest primary productivity layers even at shallow (e.g., 5 m depth) or deep (e.g., 1100 m depth) waters.

Psychosocial construction of time and social change

This paper analyzes the psychosocial construction of the conceptions of time and social change, and their relation with the notion of progress set up by modernity as well as their contradictory aspects, considering their historicity as psychosocial and social phenomena. The social construction of the notion of time is discussed; it responds to social organization forms, thus turning the social changes into historical and temporal landmarks. The association between social changes and social movements is argued and the concept of progress is deconstructed. Finally, the importance of the idea of movement in the construction of time, change and progress concepts is pointed out; it is also explained how modernity imbued such notions with direction and goals, in the direction of an arrow, according to the prevailing interests, while modeling them in its own image and likeness.

Psychosocial construction of time and social change

This paper analyzes the psychosocial construction of the conceptions of time and social change, and their relation with the notion of progress set up by modernity as well as their contradictory aspects, considering their historicity as psychosocial and social phenomena. The social construction of the notion of time is discussed; it responds to social organization forms, thus turning the social changes into historical and temporal landmarks. The association between social changes and social movements is argued and the concept of progress is deconstructed. Finally, the importance of the idea of movement in the construction of time, change and progress concepts is pointed out; it is also explained how modernity imbued such notions with direction and goals, in the direction of an arrow, according to the prevailing interests, while modeling them in its own image and likeness.

Psychosocial construction of time and social change

This paper analyzes the psychosocial construction of the conceptions of time and social change, and their relation with the notion of progress set up by modernity as well as their contradictory aspects, considering their historicity as psychosocial and social phenomena. The social construction of the notion of time is discussed; it responds to social organization forms, thus turning the social changes into historical and temporal landmarks. The association between social changes and social movements is argued and the concept of progress is deconstructed. Finally, the importance of the idea of movement in the construction of time, change and progress concepts is pointed out; it is also explained how modernity imbued such notions with direction and goals, in the direction of an arrow, according to the prevailing interests, while modeling them in its own image and likeness.

Lagrangian back-tracing results for Kohnen station; output of time dependent numerical experiment with a 3D nested Antarctic ice sheet model

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.

Chlorophyll a concentration, and proportion of time in the water column obtained by instrumented bowhead whales

Sixty hours of direct measurements of fluorescence were collected from six bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) instrumented with fluorometers in Greenland in April 2005 and 2006. The data were used to (1) characterize the three-dimensional spatial pattern of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in the water column, (2) to examine the relationships between whale foraging areas and productive zones, and (3) to examine the correlation between whale-derived in situ values of Chl-a and those from concurrent satellite images using the NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) EOS-AQUA satellite (MOD21, SeaWifs analogue OC3M and SST MOD37). Bowhead whales traversed 1600 km**2, providing information on diving, Chl-a structure and temperature profiles to depths below 200 m. Feeding dives frequently passed through surface waters ( >50 m) and targeted depths close to the bottom, and whales did not always target patches of high concentrations of Chl-a in the upper 50 m. Five satellite images were available within the periods whales carried fluorometers. Whales traversed 91 pixels collecting on average 761 s (SD 826) of Chl-a samples per pixel (0-136 m). The depth of the Chl-a maximum ranged widely, from 1 to 66 m. Estimates of Chl-a made from the water-leaving radiance measurements using the OC3M algorithm were highly skewed with most samples estimated as <1 mg/m**3 Chl-a, while data collected from whales had a broad distribution with Chl-a reaching >9 mg/m**3. The correlation between the satellite-derived and whale-derived Chl-a maxima was poor, a linear fit explained only 10% of the variance.

Investigation of time series stations along a productivity gradient north of the Canary Islands

Three stations along a productivity gradient north of the Canary Islands were investigated for surface-water properties, particle flux, and composition (biogenic and lithogenic components, and stable nitrogen isotope composition, delta15N) and export production. Investigation sites along the east-west transect off the NW African upwelling margin included the European Station for Time-Series in the Ocean, Canary Islands (ESTOC), one location contiguous to the NW African upwelling zone in the Eastern Boundary Current (EBC) and one station north of the island La Palma (LP). The seasonality of surface-water properties along the transect was mainly influenced by the winter cooling and simultaneous phytoplankton maximum and, in addition at EBC, by nearby upwelling. Accordingly, particle flux and composition along the transect were closely linked to the winter bloom sedimentation and upwelling related enhanced plankton biomass stemming from the primary upwelling and the Cape Yubi filament at EBC. During all seasons, particle flux was highest at EBC and had the highest contribution of biogenic opal and lithogenic components, and the lowest delta15N compared to the offshore stations. But contrary to what would be expected from the productivity gradient, particle flux did not decrease from ESTOC to LP. Below the upper several hundred meters, particle flux was enhanced by additional particle input along the entire transect, manifested by an increase of flux with depth and lower delta15N values. We offer a scenario in which intermediate nepheloid layers originating from the primary upwelling as well as particle dispersion from upwelling filaments, mainly the Cape Ghir filament, impact on the trap stations as far as 700 km into the open ocean. This study contributes to our understanding of the poorly resolved biogeochemical transition between the productive shelf and subtropical gyre provinces.