The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Limits on the validity of infinite length assumptions for modelling shallow landslides

The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relatedness influences signal reliability in evolving robots.

Communication is an indispensable component of animal societies, yet many open questions remain regarding the factors affecting the evolution and reliability of signalling systems. A potentially important factor is the level of genetic relatedness between signallers and receivers. To quantitatively explore the role of relatedness in the evolution of reliable signals, we conducted artificial evolution over 500 generations in a system of foraging robots that can emit and perceive light signals. By devising a quantitative measure of signal reliability, and comparing independently evolving populations differing in within-group relatedness, we show a strong positive correlation between relatedness and reliability. Unrelated robots produced unreliable signals, whereas highly related robots produced signals that reliably indicated the location of the food source and thereby increased performance. Comparisons across populations also revealed that the frequency for signal production-which is often used as a proxy of signal reliability in empirical studies on animal communication-is a poor predictor of signal reliability and, accordingly, is not consistently correlated with group performance. This has important implications for our understanding of signal evolution and the empirical tools that are used to investigate communication.

Reliability and validity of the cross-culturally adapted French version of the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) in patients with low back pain.

PURPOSE: To conduct a cross-cultural adaptation of the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) into French according to established guidelines. METHODS: Seventy outpatients with chronic low back pain were recruited from six spine centres in Switzerland and France. They completed the newly translated COMI, and the Roland Morris disability (RMQ), Dallas Pain (DPQ), adjectival pain rating scale, WHO Quality of Life, and EuroQoL-5D questionnaires. After ~14 days RMQ and COMI were completed again to assess reproducibility; a transition question (7-point Likert scale; "very much worse" through "no change" to "very much better") indicated any change in status since the first questionnaire. RESULTS: COMI whole scores displayed no floor effects and just 1.5% ceiling effects. The scores for the individual COMI items correlated with their corresponding full-length reference questionnaire with varying strengths of correlation (0.33-0.84, P < 0.05). COMI whole scores showed a very good correlation with the "multidimensional" DPQ global score (Rho = 0.71). 55 patients (79%) returned a second questionnaire with no/minimal change in their back status. The reproducibility of individual COMI 5-point items was good, with test-retest differences within one grade ranging from 89% for 'social/work disability' to 98% for 'symptom-specific well-being'. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the COMI whole score was 0.85 (95% CI 0.76-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the French version of this short, multidimensional questionnaire showed good psychometric properties, comparable to those reported for German and Spanish versions. The French COMI represents a valuable tool for future multicentre clinical studies and surgical registries (e.g. SSE Spine Tango) in French-speaking countries.

A neuropsychological instrument measuring age-related cerebral decline in older drivers: development, reliability, and validity of MedDrive.

When facing age-related cerebral decline, older adults are unequally affected by cognitive impairment without us knowing why. To explore underlying mechanisms and find possible solutions to maintain life-space mobility, there is a need for a standardized behavioral test that relates to behaviors in natural environments. The aim of the project described in this paper was therefore to provide a free, reliable, transparent, computer-based instrument capable of detecting age-related changes on visual processing and cortical functions for the purposes of research into human behavior in computational transportation science. After obtaining content validity, exploring psychometric properties of the developed tasks, we derived (Study 1) the scoring method for measuring cerebral decline on 106 older drivers aged ≥70 years attending a driving refresher course organized by the Swiss Automobile Association to test the instrument's validity against on-road driving performance (106 older drivers). We then validated the derived method on a new sample of 182 drivers (Study 2). We then measured the instrument's reliability having 17 healthy, young volunteers repeat all tests included in the instrument five times (Study 3) and explored the instrument's psychophysical underlying functions on 47 older drivers (Study 4). Finally, we tested the instrument's responsiveness to alcohol and effects on performance on a driving simulator in a randomized, double-blinded, placebo, crossover, dose-response, validation trial including 20 healthy, young volunteers (Study 5). The developed instrument revealed good psychometric properties related to processing speed. It was reliable (ICC = 0.853) and showed reasonable association to driving performance (R (2) = 0.053), and responded to blood alcohol concentrations of 0.5 g/L (p = 0.008). Our results suggest that MedDrive is capable of detecting age-related changes that affect processing speed. These changes nevertheless do not necessarily affect driving behavior.

Intraclass reliability of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale in the Brazilian version

This study had as its objective to analyze the intraclass reliability of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS), in the Brazilian version, in preterm and term infants. It was a methodological study, conducted from November 2009 to April 2010, with 50 children receiving care in two public institutions in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil. Children were grouped according to gestational age as preterm and term, and evaluated by three evaluators in the communication laboratory of a public institution or at home. The intraclass correlation indices for the categories prone, supine, sitting and standing ranged from 0.553 to 0.952; most remained above 0.800, except for the standing category of the third evaluator, in which the index was 0.553. As for the total score and percentile, rates ranged from 0.843 to 0.954. The scale proved to be a reliable instrument for assessing gross motor performance of Brazilian children, particularly in Ceará, regardless of gestational age at birth.

Validity and reliability of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors for use in Brazil

Using a sample of patients with coronary artery disease, this methodological study aimed to conduct a cross-cultural adaptation and validation of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors (Q-FARCS), lifestyle changes, and treatment adherence for use in Brazil. The questionnaire has three scales: general knowledge of risk factors (RFs); specific knowledge of these RFs; and lifestyle changes achieved. Cross-cultural adaptation included translation, synthesis, back-translation, expert committee review, and pretesting. Face and content validity, reliability, and construct validity were measured. Cronbach’s alpha for the total sample (n = 240) was 0.75. Assessment of psychometric properties revealed adequate face and content validity, and the construct revealed seven components. It was concluded that the Brazilian version of Q-FARCS had adequate reliability and validity for the assessment of knowledge of cardiovascular RFs.

Impact of the disease: acceptability, ceiling and floor effects and reliability of an instrument on heart failure

This study evaluated the acceptability, ceiling/floor effects, and the reliability of the instrument for measuring the Impact of the Disease on the Daily Life of Patients with Valvular Disease (IDCV) when applied to 135 patients with heart failure (HF). Acceptability was evaluated by the percentage of unanswered items and by the proportion of patients who responded to all items; the ceiling/floor effects by the percentage of patients who scored in the top of 10% best and worst results of the scale, respectively. Reliability was estimated by internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient) and stability of the measure (intraclass correlation coefficient - ICC). All patients responded to all items. Ceiling/floor effects evidenced were of moderate magnitude. The Cronbach's alpha was satisfactory for the majority of the domains and ICC> 0.90 in all the domains. The IDCV proved to be an easy to understand questionnaire, with evidence of reliability in patients with HF.

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Modelling the effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery on patient mood at the early post-operative period: a prospective population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery (MiODS) on patient's mood. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of 148 consecutive patients with age above 18 and less than 65, an American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) score of 1, and the requirement of general anaesthesia (GA) were included. The Medical Outcomes Study - Short Form 36 (SF-36), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were used pre- and post-operatively. RESULTS: The mean physical component score of SF-36 before surgery was 45.3 (SD=+/-10.1) and 8 weeks following surgery was 44.9 (SD=+/-11.04) [n=148, p=0.51, 95% CI=(-1.03 to 1.52)]. For the measurement of the changes in mood using BDI, BAI and SF-36, latent construct modelling was employed to increase validity. The covariance between mood pre- and post-operatively (cov=69.44) corresponded to a correlation coefficient, r=0.88 indicating that patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before surgery continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery. When the latent mood constructs were permitted to have different means the model fitted well with chi(2) (df=1)=0.86 for which p=0.77, thus the null hypothesis that MiODS has no effect on patient mood was rejected. CONCLUSIONS: MiODS affects patient mood which deteriorates at 8 weeks post-operatively regardless of the pre-operative patient mood state. More importantly patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before MiODS continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery.

Scientific Literature on the Reliability and Validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) Protocol: A Integrative Literature Review

OBJECTIVE To analyze the scientific production about the validity and reliability of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) protocol. METHOD A descriptive study of an integrative literature review. Articles on the validity and reliability of the MTS developed with children and adults published between 1999 and 2013 were included. RESULTS 14 articles were selected from a total of 8438, nine of validity and five of reliability. The reliability of the MTS ranged from moderate to almost perfect, with higher intra-evaluation. Regarding validity, the results seem to point to equivalent and satisfactory sensibility and specificity levels of the MTS. The instrument proved to be a good predictor of the need for hospitalization and of hospital mortality. CONCLUSION The reliability and validity of the MTS obtained in the studies is varied. It is recommended that new studies indicate necessary modifications to the MTS so that it is more safely used by nurses.