Survey estimation and marginal effects in Stata

Stata is a general purpose software package that has become popular among various disciplines such as epidemiology, economics, or social sciences. Users like Stata for its scientific approach, its robustness and reliability, and the ease with which its functionality can be extended by user written programs. In this talk I will first give a brief overview of the functionality of Stata and then discuss two specific features: survey estimation and predictive margins/marginal effects. Most surveys are based on complex samples that contain multiple sampling stages, are stratified or clustered, and feature unequal selection probabilities. Standard estimators can produce misleading results in such samples unless the peculiarities of the sampling plan are taken into account. Stata offers survey statistics for complex samples for a wide variety of estimators and supports several variance estimation procedures such as linearization, jackknife, and balanced repeated replication (see Kreuter and Valliant, 2007, Stata Journal 7: 1-21). In the talk I will illustrate these features using applied examples and I will also show how user written commands can be adapted to support complex samples. Complex can also be the models we fit to our data, making it difficult to interpret them, especially in case of nonlinear or non-additive models (Mood, 2010, European Sociological Review 26: 67-82). Stata provides a number of highly useful commands to make results of such models accessible by computing and displaying predictive margins and marginal effects. In my talk I will discuss these commands provide various examples demonstrating their use.

Isospin Breaking Effects in Kℓ4 Decays

In the framework of chiral perturbation theory with photons and leptons, the one-loop isospin-breaking effects in Kℓ4 decays due to both the photonic contribution and the quark and meson mass differences are computed. A comparison with the isospin-breaking corrections applied by recent high statistics Ke4 experiments is performed. The calculation can be used to correct the existing form factor measurements by isospin-breaking effects that have not yet been taken into account in the experimental analysis. Based on the present work, possible forthcoming experiments on Ke4 decays could correct the isospin breaking effects in a more consistent way.

Mood and Memory: Mood congruity effects in absence of mood

Themood-congruity effect refers to facilitated processing of information when the affective valence of this information is congruent with the subject’s mood. In this paper we argue that mood may be a sufficient but not a necessary condition to produce the mood-congruity effect of selective learning. Two experiments are presented in which subjects learned lists of words with neutral, positive, and negative affective valences. In the learning task the subjects were instructed to behave as if they were depressed or happy. The mood-congruity effect was indeed obtained. The effect was stronger with subjects who “predicted” the relationship between mood and affective word valence than with subjects who were unaware of this relationship. The results are not simply attributed to task demands, but are interpreted in terms of a model of cognitive processes and people’s knowledge about mood states.

Evidence of species-specific neighborhood effects in the dipterocarpaceae of a Bornean rain forest

Although accumulating evidence indicates that local intraspecific density-dependent effects are not as rare in species-rich communities as previously suspected, there are still very few detailed and systematic neighborhood analyses of species-rich communities. Here, we provide such an analysis with the overall goal of quantifying the relative importance of inter- and intraspecific interaction strength in a primary, lowland dipterocarp forest located at Danum, Sabah, Malaysia. Using data on 10 abundant overstory dipterocarp species from two 4-ha permanent plots, we evaluated the effects of neighbors on the absolute growth rate of focal trees (from 1986 to 1996) over increasing neighborhood radii (from 1 to 20 m) with multiple regressions. Only trees 10 cm to < 100 cm girth at breast height in 1986 were considered as focal trees. Among neighborhood models with one neighbor term, models including only conspecific larger trees performed best in five out of 10 species. Negative effects of conspecific larger neighbors were most apparent in large overstory species such as those of the genus Shorea. However, neighborhood models with separate terms and radii for heterospecific and conspecific neighbors accounted for more variability in absolute growth rates than did neighborhood models with one neighbor term. The conspecific term was significant for nine out of 10 species. Moreover, in five out of 10 species, trees without conspecific neighbors had significantly higher absolute growth rates than trees with conspecific neighbors. Averaged over the 10 species, trees without conspecific neighbors grew 32.4 cm(2) in basal area from 1986 to 1996, whereas trees with conspecific neighbors only grew 14.7 cm(2) in basal area, although there was no difference in initial basal area between trees in the two groups. Averaged across the six species of the genus Shorea, negative effects of conspecific larger trees were significantly stronger than for heterospecific larger neighbors. Thus, high local densities within neighborhoods of 20 m may lead to strong intraspecific negative and, hence, density-dependent, effects even in species rich communities with low overall densities at larger spatial scales. We conjecture that the strength of conspecific effects may be correlated with the degree of host specificity of ectomycorrhizae.

Relaxing hydrotherapy WATSU (WaterShiatsu) and its effects in third trimester of pregnancy

Background WATSU (WaterShiatsu) is a bodywork-technique comprising buoyancy, passive stretches, massage, and acupressure that is administered in 35° C warm water. WATSU is believed to exert beneficial effects on pregnancy-related complaints. We conducted a pilot study to test the hypothesis that WATSU treatment during pregnancy can affect low back pain, everyday stress perception, quality of life, tonus of the uterus, amount of amniotic fluid, spontaneous course of breech presentations, and the success rate of external cephalic versions. Methods Healthy women with singleton pregnancies at gestational week 36 were included in our cohort control pilot trial. Participants in the treatment group (n = 8) received a standardized WATSU-treatment on their first and fourth day of study participation, while participants in the control group were in a waiting condition. Participants underwent ultrasound investigations and completed quantitative and qualitative questionnaires before and after intervention, as well as weekly until birth. Results In contrast to the control group, participants in the WATSU-treatment group reported significant relief of low back pain and stress. After WATSU treatment spontaneous version out of breech position occurred once in seven cases, and external cephalic version was successful in two out of three cases. As qualitative data indicate, WATSU was appreciated as a deep relaxing and enjoyable treatment method. No negative side-effects or adverse events were reported. Conclusion The findings from our pilot-study support the notion that WATSU might yield therapeutic benefits for pregnant women and warrant further research.

Parasite- and predator-induced maternal effects in the great tit (Parus major)

Both predators and parasites can elicit behavioral and physiological responses in prey and hosts, respectively. These responses may involve the reallocation of resources and may thus limit each other. We investigated the effects of concurrent pre-laying exposure of great tit females (Parus major) to both a simulated predation risk and a nest-based ectoparasite, the hen flea (Ceratophyllus gallinae), on nestling growth and development. We manipulated perceived predation risk using models and vocalizations of sparrowhawks (Accipiter nisus). At the start of incubation, we swapped whole clutches between treated and untreated nests to separate pre-laying maternal effects from posthatching effects. Since costs and benefits of maternal responses to parasites need to be assessed under parasite pressure, we infested half of the rearing nests with hen fleas. Parasites had negative effects on mass gain and wing growth, both via maternal effects and via direct exposure of nestlings, whereas maternal predation risk had no significant effect. The interaction between predator and parasite treatments was not significant and, thus, suggests the absence of a trade-off between the 2 stressors operating at the level of maternal effects. Alternatively, the complexity of the design, despite a relatively large sample size, may have limited the power for detection of this expected trade-off.

Cyclophosphamide: As bad as its reputation? Long-term single centre experience of cyclophosphamide side effects in the treatment of systemic autoimmune diseases

OBJECTIVES Despite new treatment modalities, cyclophosphamide (CYC) remains a cornerstone in the treatment of organ or life-threatening vasculitides and connective tissue disorders. We aimed at analysing the short- and long-term side-effects of CYC treatment in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases. METHODS Chart review and phone interviews regarding side effects of CYC in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases treated between 1984 and 2011 in a single university centre. Adverse events were stratified according to the "Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events" version 4. RESULTS A total of 168 patients were included. Cumulative CYC dose was 7.45 g (range 0.5-205 g). Gastro-intestinal side effects were seen in 68 events, hair loss occurred in 38 events. A total of 58 infections were diagnosed in 44/168 patients (26.2%) with 9/44 suffering multiple infections. Severity grading of infections was low in 37/58 cases (63.8%). One CYC-related infection-induced death (0.6%) was registered. Amenorrhoea occurred in 7/92 females (7.6%) with 5/7 remaining irreversible. In females with reversible amenorrhoea, prophylaxis with nafarelin had been administered. Malignancy was registered in 19 patients after 4.7 years (median, range 0.25-22.25) presenting as 4 premalignancies and 18 malignancies, 3 patients suffered 2 premalignancies/malignancies each. Patients with malignancies were older with a higher cumulative CYC dose. Death was registered in 28 patients (16.6%) with 2/28 probably related to CYC. CONCLUSIONS Considering the organ or life-threatening conditions which indicate the use of CYC, severe drug-induced health problems were rare. Our data confirm the necessity to follow-up patients long-term for timely diagnosis of malignancies. CYC side-effects do not per se justify prescription of newer drugs or biologic agents in the treatment of autoimmune diseases.

Delay effects in the response of low-grade gliomas to radiotherapy: a mathematical model and its therapeutical implications

Low-grade gliomas (LGGs) are a group of primary brain tumours usually encountered in young patient populations. These tumours represent a difficult challenge because many patients survive a decade or more and may be at a higher risk for treatment-related complications. Specifically, radiation therapy is known to have a relevant effect on survival but in many cases it can be deferred to avoid side effects while maintaining its beneficial effect. However, a subset of LGGs manifests more aggressive clinical behaviour and requires earlier intervention. Moreover, the effectiveness of radiotherapy depends on the tumour characteristics. Recently Pallud et al. (2012. Neuro-Oncology, 14: , 1-10) studied patients with LGGs treated with radiation therapy as a first-line therapy and obtained the counterintuitive result that tumours with a fast response to the therapy had a worse prognosis than those responding late. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model describing the basic facts of glioma progression and response to radiotherapy. The model provides also an explanation to the observations of Pallud et al. Using the model, we propose radiation fractionation schemes that might be therapeutically useful by helping to evaluate tumour malignancy while at the same time reducing the toxicity associated to the treatment.

Identification of amino acid substitutions with compensational effects in the attachment protein of canine distemper virus.

The hemagglutinin (H) gene of canine distemper virus (CDV) encodes the receptor-binding protein. This protein, together with the fusion (F) protein, is pivotal for infectivity since it contributes to the fusion of the viral envelope with the host cell membrane. Of the two receptors currently known for CDV (nectin-4 and the signaling lymphocyte activation molecule [SLAM]), SLAM is considered the most relevant for host susceptibility. To investigate how evolution might have impacted the host-CDV interaction, we examined the functional properties of a series of missense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) naturally accumulating within the H-gene sequences during the transition between two distinct but related strains. The two strains, a wild-type strain and a consensus strain, were part of a single continental outbreak in European wildlife and occurred in distinct geographical areas 2 years apart. The deduced amino acid sequence of the two H genes differed at 5 residues. A panel of mutants carrying all the combinations of the SNPs was obtained by site-directed mutagenesis. The selected mutant, wild type, and consensus H proteins were functionally evaluated according to their surface expression, SLAM binding, fusion protein interaction, and cell fusion efficiencies. The results highlight that the most detrimental functional effects are associated with specific sets of SNPs. Strikingly, an efficient compensational system driven by additional SNPs appears to come into play, virtually neutralizing the negative functional effects. This system seems to contribute to the maintenance of the tightly regulated function of the H-gene-encoded attachment protein. Importance: To investigate how evolution might have impacted the host-canine distemper virus (CDV) interaction, we examined the functional properties of naturally occurring single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the hemagglutinin gene of two related but distinct strains of CDV. The hemagglutinin gene encodes the attachment protein, which is pivotal for infection. Our results show that few SNPs have a relevant detrimental impact and they generally appear in specific combinations (molecular signatures). These drastic negative changes are neutralized by compensatory mutations, which contribute to maintenance of an overall constant bioactivity of the attachment protein. This compensational mechanism might reflect the reaction of the CDV machinery to the changes occurring in the virus following antigenic variations critical for virulence.

No sports – no mental health? Analysis of longitudinal effects in SHP data.

Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.

Higgs effects in top anti-top production near threshold in e+e− annihilation

The completion of the third-order QCD corrections to the inclusive top-pair production cross section near threshold demonstrates that the strong dynamics is under control at the few percent level. In this paper we consider the effects of the Higgs boson on the cross section and, for the first time, combine the third-order QCD result with the third-order P-wave, the leading QED and the leading non-resonant contributions. We study the size of the different effects and investigate the sensitivity of the cross section to variations of the top-quark Yukawa coupling due to possible new physics effects.

Addendum to “Electroweak Sudakov effects in W, Z and γ production at large transverse momentum”

In this addendum to T. Becher and X. Garcia i Tormo, Phys. Rev. D 88, 013009 (2013), we give results for the electroweak Sudakov corrections in gauge-boson production at large transverse momentum pT at proton colliders. For the results to be easily usable, we provide a simple and accurate parametrization of the corrections as a function of pT and the center-of-mass energy s√. Additionally, we also discuss the dependence of the electroweak corrections on the rapidity of the produced boson and comment on the complications that arise in the photon-production case due to isolation requirements.