Etude prospective sur l'utilité et valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG pour le diagnostic d'infection sur cathéters veineux centraux permanents

Contexte Lié au vieillissement et à la sédentarisation de la population, ainsi qu'à la chronicisation du cancer, l'emploi de cathéters veineux centraux permanents (CVCP) n'a cessé d'augmenter. La complication majeure de ces dispositifs, induisant de forts taux de morbi-mortalité, est l'infection. Actuellement, le diagnostic de ces infections reste surtout basé sur la clinique et les hémocultures. Lorsque le doute persiste, une ablation chirurgicale suivie de la mise en culture des prélèvements chirurgicaux et du cathéter permettent de poser le diagnostic. En clinique, après ces examens, nous constatons que seule la moitié des cathéters retirés étaient réellement infectés. Alors que la tomographie par émission de positons fusionnée à la tomographie (PET/CT) a montré de bons résultats dans la détection des infections chroniques, la valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au fluorodeoxyglucose marqué au 18F (18F-FDG) pour les infections de CVCP n'a encore jamais été déterminée dans une étude prospective. Objectifs Au travers de cette étude prospective, ouverte et monocentrique, nous chercherons à connaître la valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG dans la détection d'infections de CVCP et ainsi d'en déterminer son utilité. Nous essaierons aussi de déterminer la différence de valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG par rapport aux méthodes conventionnelles (paramètres cliniques et culture du liquide d'aspiration), afin de se déterminer sur l'éventuelle utilité diagnostique de celui-ci. Méthodes Cadre : Etude prospective d'au moins 20 patients, avec 2 groupes contrôles d'au moins 10 patients ayant chacun respectivement une faible et une forte probabilité d'infection, soit au moins 40 patients au total. Population : patients adultes avec CVCP devant être retiré. Cette étude prévoit un examen PET/CT au 18F-FDG effectué auprès de patients nécessitant une ablation de CVCP sur suspicion d'infection, sans confirmation possible par les moyens diagnostiques non chirurgicaux. Deux acquisitions seront réalisées 45 et 70 minutes après l'injection de 5,5MBq/Kg de 18F-FDG. Le groupe contrôle à faible probabilité d'infection, sera formé de patients bénéficiant de l'ablation définitive d'un CVCP pour fin de traitement durant le laps de temps de l'étude, et ayant bénéficié au préalable d'un examen PET/CT pour raison X. Après avoir retiré chirurgicalement le CVCP, nous utiliserons la culture microbiologique des deux extrémités du CVCP comme étalon d'or (gold standard) de l'infection. Le groupe contrôle à forte probabilité d'infection sera formé de patients nécessitant une ablation de CVCP sur infection de CVCP confirmée par les moyens diagnostiques non chirurgicaux (culture positive du liquide de l'aspiration). Lors de l'examen PET/CT, ces patients auront aussi deux acquisitions réalisées 45 et 70 minutes après l'injection de 5,5MBq/Kg de 18F-FDG. Les résultats de ces examens seront évalués par deux spécialistes en médecine nucléaire qui détermineront le niveau de suspicion de l'infection sur une échelle de Likert allant de I à V, sur la base du nombre de foyers, de la localisation du foyer, de l'intensité de la captation de 18F-FDG au voisinage du cathéter et du rapport tissu/arrière-plan. Par la suite, nous retirerons chirurgicalement le CVCP. Nous utiliserons la culture microbiologique du pus (si présent), des deux extrémités du CVCP ainsi que l'histologie des tissus formant un tunnel autour du cathéter comme étalon d'or de l'infection. Les résultats seront analysés à l'aide de courbes ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) afin de déterminer la valeur diagnostique du PET/CT dans l'infection de CVCP. Les résultats des examens des patients avec suspicion clinique d'infection seront ensuite analysés séparément, afin de déterminer la différence de valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG par rapport aux méthodes conventionnelles. Résultats escomptés Ce projet veut chercher à savoir si le PET/CT au 18F-FDG peut être un moyen diagnostique valide dans les infections de CVCP, s'avérer utile lorsque les autres moyens diagnostiques sont non conclusifs. Plus-value escomptée Actuellement, lors d'incertitude sur le diagnostic d'infection de CVCP, une opération chirurgicale est effectuée à titre préventif afin d'enlever le cathéter en cause, cependant seulement la moitié de ces cathéters sont réellement infectés en pratique. Le PET/CT au 18F-FDG, grâce à sa sensibilité élevée et probablement une bonne valeur prédictive négative, pourrait éviter à une partie des patients un retrait inutile du cathéter, diminuant ainsi les risques chirurgicaux et les coûts liés à de telles opérations, tout en préservant le capital d'accès vasculaire futur.

Peritoneal Carcinomatosis in Primary Ovarian Cancer Staging: Comparison Between MDCT, MRI, and 18F-FDG PET/CT.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare multidetector CT (MDCT), MRI, and FDG PET/CT imaging for the detection of peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) in ovarian cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifteen women with ovarian cancer and suspected PC underwent MDCT, MRI, and FDG PET/CT, shortly before surgery. Nine abdominopelvic regions were defined according to the peritoneal cancer index. We applied lesion size scores on MDCT and MR and measured FDG PET/CT standard uptake. We blindly read MDCT, MR, and PET/CT before joint review and comparison with histopathology. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was performed. RESULTS: Ten women had PC (67%). Altogether, 135 abdominopelvic sites were compared. Multidetector CT, MRI, and FDG PET/CT had a sensitivity of 96%, 98%, and 95%, and specificity was 92%, 84%, and 96%, respectively. Corresponding receiver operating characteristics area was 0.94, 0.90, and 0.96, respectively, without any significant differences between them (P = 0.12). FDG PET/CT detected supradiaphragmatic disease in 3 women (20%) not seen by MDCT or MRI. CONCLUSIONS: Although MRI had the highest sensitivity and FDG PET/CT had the highest specificity, no significant differences were found between the 3 techniques. Thus, MDCT, as the fastest, most economical, and most widely available modality, is the examination of choice, if a stand-alone technique is required. If inconclusive, PET/CT or MRI may offer additional insights. Whole-body FDG PET/CT may be more accurate for supradiaphragmatic metastatic extension.

Multislice CT for assessing in-stent dimensions after left main coronary artery stenting: a comparison with three dimensional intravascular ultrasound

Objective: To evaluate the agreement between multislice CT (MSCT) and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) to assess the in-stent lumen diameters and lumen areas of left main coronary artery (LMCA) stents. Design: Prospective, observational single centre study. Setting: A single tertiary referral centre. Patients: Consecutive patients with LMCA stenting excluding patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic renal failure. Interventions: MSCT and IVUS imaging at 9-12 months follow-up were performed for all patients. Main outcome measures: Agreement between MSCT and IVUS minimum luminal area (MLA) and minimum luminal diameter (MLD). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to find the MSCT cut-off point to diagnose binary restenosis equivalent to 6 mm2 by IVUS. Results: 52 patients were analysed. Passing-Bablok regression analysis obtained a β coefficient of 0.786 (0.586 to 1.071) for MLA and 1.250 (0.936 to 1.667) for MLD, ruling out proportional bias. The α coefficient was −3.588 (−8.686 to −0.178) for MLA and −1.713 (−3.583 to −0.257) for MLD, indicating an underestimation trend of MSCT. The ROC curve identified an MLA ≤4.7 mm2 as the best threshold to assess in-stent restenosis by MSCT. Conclusions: Agreement between MSCT and IVUS to assess in-stent MLA and MLD for LMCA stenting is good. An MLA of 4.7 mm2 by MSCT is the best threshold to assess binary restenosis. MSCT imaging can be considered in selected patients to assess LMCA in-stent restenosis

Prediction of Post-Weaning Fibrinogen Status during Cardiopulmonary Bypass: An Observational Study in 110 Patients.

BACKGROUND: After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS: This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.

Product placement in integrated marketing communications strategy

Perinteisten markkinointiviestintäkanavien menettäessä jatkuvasti tehoaan mediakentän ja kohderyhmien sirpaloituessa yhä pienempiin yksiköihin markkinointiorganisaatiot etsivät vaihtoehtoisia tapoja tavoittaakseen kohdeyleisönsä. Yksi vaihtoehtoinen markkinointiviestintäkeino on tuotesijoittelu (product placement), jossa (merkki)tuotteita sijoitetaan erilaisten viihdetuotantojen, kuten elokuvien, televisio-ohjelmien ja tietokonepelien, tarinan yhteyteen, jotta yhä medialukutaitoisempi kohdeyleisö ei pystyisi välttämään kaupallista viestiä esimerkiksi vaihtamalla televisiokanavaa tai kääntämällä lehden sivua. Koska tuote on sijoitettu kerrottavan tarinan sisään, markkinointiviestin — eli tuotteen havaitsemisen — välttäminen on huomattavasti vaikeampaa kuin perinteisten markkinointiviestintämenetelmien kohdalla. Lisäksi, sijoitellut tuotteet ovat tavallisesti kiinteässä yhteydessä tarinan juonen ja henkilöhahmojen kanssa siten, että tuote saa näistä yhteyksistä positiivista vahvistusta imagolleen. Pro Gradu-tutkielman tarkoituksena oli selvittää tuotesijoittelun käyttökelpoisuutta markkinointiviestinnässä sekä miten kulutushyödykemarkkinoijat voivat hyödyntää menetelmää markkinointiviestintästrategioissaan. Tuotesijoittelun poikkeava luonne markkinointiviestintävälineenä tuotti kysymyksen miten tuotesijoittelua voitaisiin hyödyntää yhteistyössä muiden markkinointiviestintäkeinojen kanssa. Tätä varten tutkimuksessa tuotesijoittelu yhdistettiin integroidun markkinointiviestinnän (IMC) viitekehykseen. IMC-konsepti syntyi markkinointiviestinnässä vastaamaan samaan tarpeeseen kuin tuotesijoittelukin: pirstaloitunut mediakenttä ja yksittäiset kohderyhmät vaativat kehittyneempää ja yhtenäisempää markkinointiviestinnän suunnittelua ja toteutusta. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä tuotesijoittelu todettiin käyttökelpoiseksi markkinointiviestintäkeinoksi mikäli viestinnän tavoitteena on muu kuin tuotteen myyntiin suorasti vaikuttaminen. Tuotesijoittelu on sen sijaan erittäin tehokas tuotetietoisuuden lisäämisessä, erityisesti tunnistamisen kohdalla. Tuotesijoittelu voi myös tuottaa suoran ostotarpeen mutta tällöin viestin vastaanottajalla täytyy olla vallitseva tarve kyseisen tuoteryhmän osalta ennen altistumista ko. markkinointiviestille. Tuotesijoittelu voidaan sisällyttää IMC-suunnitteluprosessiin markkinointiviestintästrategian kiinteänä osana. Integraatio markkinointiviestinnässä siten, että tuotesijoittelua tuettaisiin muilla viestintäkeinoilla yhtenäisen kampanjan kehittämiseksi on kuitenkin paljon ennakoitua harvinaisempaa, johtuen ehkä eniten tuotesijoittelun poikkeuksellisesta luonteesta ja kyseisen viestintämuodon vaikeasta hallittavuudesta markkinoijan taholta. Tutkimus toteutettiin normatiivisena case-tutkimuksena pääasiassa sekundäärisiä tietolähteitä hyödyntäen. Case-tutkimuksia varten kerättiin primääristä tietoa kyselylomakkeella kahdesta tuotesijoittelua käyttävästä kansainvälisestä yhtiöstä, jonka lisäksi myös sekundäärisiä tietolähteitä hyödynnettiin case-osan tiedonkeruussa.

Context-based services for mobile devices

The subject of this master’s thesis was developing a context-based reminder service for mobile devices. Possible sources of context were identified and analyzed. One such source is geographical location obtained via a GPS receiver. These receivers consume a lot of power and techniques and algorithms for reducing power consumptions were proposed and analyzed. The service was implemented as an application on a series 60 mobile phone. The application requirements, user interface and architecture are presented. The end-user experiences are discussed and possible future development and research areas are presented.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

Prédiction des complications après duodénopancréatectomie céphalique: validation d'un score de complications postopératoires = Prediction of complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy: validation of a postoperative complication score

Objectifs La chirurgie pancréatique reste associée à une morbidité postopératoire importante. Les efforts sont concentrés la plupart du temps sur la diminution de cette morbidité, mais la détection précoce de patients à risque de complications pourrait être une autre stratégie valable. Un score simple de prédiction des complications après duodénopancréatectomie céphalique a récemment été publié par Braga et al. La présente étude a pour but de valider ce score et de discuter de ses possibles implications cliniques. Méthodes De 2000 à 2015, 245 patients ont bénéficié d'une duodénopancréatectomie céphalique dans notre service. Les complications postopératoires ont été recensées selon la classification de Dindo et Clavien. Le score de Braga se base sur quatre paramètres : le score ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists), la texture du pancréas, le diamètre du canal de Wirsung (canal pancréatique principal) et les pertes sanguines intra-opératoires. Un score de risque global de 0 à 15 peut être calculé pour chaque patient. La puissance de discrimination du score a été calculée en utilisant une courbe ROC (receiver operating characteristic). Résultats Des complications majeures sont apparues chez 31% des patients, alors que 17% des patients ont eu des complications majeures dans l'article de Braga. La texture du pancréas et les pertes sanguines étaient statistiquement significativement corrélées à une morbidité accrue. Les aires sous la courbe étaient respectivement de 0.95 et 0.99 pour les scores classés en quatre catégories de risques (de 0 à 3, 4 à 7, 8 à 11 et 12 à 15) et pour les scores individuels (de 0 à 15). Conclusions Le score de Braga permet donc une bonne discrimination entre les complications mineures et majeures. Notre étude de validation suggère que ce score peut être utilisé comme un outil pronostique de complications majeures après duodénopancréatectomie céphalique. Les implications cliniques, c'est-à-dire si les stratégies de prise en charge postopératoire doivent être adaptées en fonction du risque individuel du patient, restent cependant à élucider. -- Objectives Pancreatic surgery remains associated with important morbidity. Efforts are most commonly concentrated on decreasing postoperative morbidity, but early detection of patients at risk could be another valuable strategy. A simple prognostic score has recently been published. This study aimed to validate this score and discuss possible clinical implications. Methods From 2000 to 2012, 245 patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy. Complications were graded according to the Dindo-Clavien classification. The Braga score is based on American Society of Anesthesiologists score, pancreatic texture, Wirsung duct diameter, and blood loss. An overall risk score (from 0 to 15) can be calculated for each patient. Score discriminant power was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Major complications occurred in 31% of patients compared to 17% in Braga's data. Pancreatic texture and blood loss were independently statistically significant for increased morbidity. The areas under curve were 0.95 and 0.99 for 4-risk categories and for individual scores, respectively. Conclusions The Braga score discriminates well between minor and major complications. Our validation suggests that it can be used as prognostic tool for major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The clinical implications, i.e., whether postoperative treatment strategies should be adapted according to the patient's individual risk, remain to be elucidated.

Pakettitoimitusten logistinen kehittäminen asiakaslähtöiseksi

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää mahdollisuuksia ohjata pakettia uudelleen sen jälkeen, kun lähettäjä on luovuttanut paketin Postin kuljetettavaksi. Lähtökohtana työlle oli, että uudelleenohjaus suoritettaisiin matkapuhelimella, koska se suuren penetraationsa ansiosta tavoittaa mahdollisimman monen vastaanottajan. Ensin selvitettiin nykyinen Postin pakettiprosessin toiminta haastattelemalla asiantuntijoita ja perehtyen toiminnan kuvauksiin. Työssä pyrittiin ottamaan asiakaslähtöinen näkökanta, jonka pohjaksi tutustuttiin Postille tehtyihin kattaviin asiakastutkimuksiin. Asiakkaiden tarpeet kasvavat ja muuttuvat entistä yksilöllisimmiksi. Paketin uudelleenohjauksella voitaisiin asiakkaan toivomuksesta muuttaa paketin toimitusosoitetta, -aikaa tai tehdä kotiinkuljetustilaus. Asiakasta informoidaan saapuvasta lähetyksestä saapumisilmoituksella, jonka perusteella uudelleenohjaus voitaisiin tehdä. Toinen tapa olisi kertoa ennakkoon, että haluaa kaikki saapuvat lähetykset vastaanottaa tietyllä tavalla haluttuna ajankohtana. Uudelleenohjaus ei ole teknisesti vaikeaa, mutta toiminnallisen prosessin aikaansaaminen on vaikea tehtävä. Paketin uudelleenohjaus on varteenotettava mahdollisuus luoda Postin asiakkaille lisäarvoa ja yksilöllistä palvelua. Se vaatii kuitenkin pakettiprosessin muutoksia niin lähettäjälle, vastaanottajalle kuin Postille.

GPS-signal Source Based on Direct Digital Synthesis

This thesis presents the design and implementation of a GPS-signal source suitable for receiver measurements. The developed signal source is based on direct digital synthesis which generates the intermediate frequency. The intermediate frequency is transfered to the final frequency with the aid of an Inphase/Quadrature modulator. The modulating GPS-data was generated with MATLAB. The signal source was duplicated to form a multi channel source. It was shown that, GPS-signals ment for civil navigation are easy to generate in the laboratory. The hardware does not need to be technically advanced if navigation with high level of accuracy is not needed. It was also shown that, the Inphase/Quadrature modulator can function as a single side band upconverter even with a high intermediate frequency. This concept reduces the demands required for output filtering.

Feromones: el paper de l'olor en la comunicació animal

Chemical perception is considered one of the first senses used as a communication system between living organisms. Such communication is based on the emission of signals between a sender and a receiver; if the communication is chemical, these signals are called pheromones. These signals have evolved via natural selection through a mechanism known as ritualization, which converts cues (which are not adapted to communication and which the receiver picks up regardless of the interests of the sender) into signals (information that the sender transmits as an adaptative response to its previously developed perception of the receiver). When communication has evolved between actors (sender and receiver) with common interests, the honesty of the signal is taken for granted, since both want the same thing (i.e., there is no reason to deceive). If the actors have conflicting interests, however, then the possibility of deception seeps into the possible array of adaptations. This can be observed in the case of communicative mimicry. However, in other situations natural selection imposes conditions that screen the possible signals, allowing only those that meet the requirement of honesty to stabilize. These include indices and added-cost signals. The emission of pheromones plays a variety of roles in the life processes of living beings. It facilitates encounters between individuals of the same species and is heavily involved in the mechanisms of recognition of relatives. It also fosters behaviours such as altruism (cooperation between individuals that share a percentage of their genetic inheritance). In many species, including humans, chemical communication works behind the scenes to guide the choice of a sexual partner.

Rotational Doppler effect in magnetic resonance

We compute the shift in the frequency of the spin resonance in a solid that rotates in the field of a circularly polarized electromagnetic wave. Electron-spin resonance, nuclear magnetic resonance, and ferromagnetic resonance are considered. We show that contrary to the case of the rotating LC circuit, the shift in the frequency of the spin resonance has strong dependence on the symmetry of the receiver. The shift due to rotation occurs only when rotational symmetry is broken by the anisotropy of the gyromagnetic tensor, by the shape of the body or by magnetocrystalline anisotropy. General expressions for the resonance frequency and power absorption are derived and implications for experiment are discussed.

Biomarkers of Host Response Predict Primary End-Point Radiological Pneumonia in Tanzanian Children with Clinical Pneumonia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance. METHODS: We studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155) within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30), other infiltrates (n = 31), or normal chest x-ray (n = 94). Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. RESULTS: Compared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5-98.8), 80.8% specificity (72.6-87.1), positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4-7.1), negative likelihood ratio 0.083 (0.022-0.32), and misclassification rate 0.20 (standard error 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: In Tanzanian children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia, combinations of host biomarkers distinguished between end-point pneumonia, other infiltrates, and normal chest x-ray, whereas clinical variables did not. These findings generate pathophysiological hypotheses and may have potential research and clinical utility.

Prediction of multiple infections after severe burn trauma: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models for early triage of burn patients based on hypersusceptibility to repeated infections. BACKGROUND: Infection remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity after severe trauma, demanding new strategies to combat infections. Models for infection prediction are lacking. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 459 burn patients (≥16 years old) with 20% or more total body surface area burns recruited from 6 US burn centers. We compared blood transcriptomes with a 180-hour cutoff on the injury-to-transcriptome interval of 47 patients (≤1 infection episode) to those of 66 hypersusceptible patients [multiple (≥2) infection episodes (MIE)]. We used LASSO regression to select biomarkers and multivariate logistic regression to built models, accuracy of which were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Three predictive models were developed using covariates of (1) clinical characteristics; (2) expression profiles of 14 genomic probes; (3) combining (1) and (2). The genomic and clinical models were highly predictive of MIE status [AUROCGenomic = 0.946 (95% CI: 0.906-0.986); AUROCClinical = 0.864 (CI: 0.794-0.933); AUROCGenomic/AUROCClinical P = 0.044]. Combined model has an increased AUROCCombined of 0.967 (CI: 0.940-0.993) compared with the individual models (AUROCCombined/AUROCClinical P = 0.0069). Hypersusceptible patients show early alterations in immune-related signaling pathways, epigenetic modulation, and chromatin remodeling. CONCLUSIONS: Early triage of burn patients more susceptible to infections can be made using clinical characteristics and/or genomic signatures. Genomic signature suggests new insights into the pathophysiology of hypersusceptibility to infection may lead to novel potential therapeutic or prophylactic targets.

Prediction of Complications After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: Validation of a Postoperative Complication Score.

OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with important morbidity. Efforts are most commonly concentrated on decreasing postoperative morbidity, but early detection of patients at risk could be another valuable strategy. A simple prognostic score has recently been published. This study aimed to validate this score and discuss possible clinical implications. METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, 245 patients underwent a pancreaticoduodenectomy. Complications were graded according to the Dindo-Clavien Classification. The Braga score is based on American Society of Anesthesiologists score, pancreatic texture, Wirsung duct diameter, and blood loss. An overall risk score (0-15) can be calculated for each patient. Score discriminant power was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Major complications occurred in 31% of patients compared with 17% in Braga's data. Pancreatic texture and blood loss were independently statistically significant for increased morbidity. Areas under the curve were 0.95 and 0.99 for 4-risk categories and for individual scores, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Braga score discriminates well between minor and major complications. Our validation suggests that it can be used as a prognostic tool for major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The clinical implications, that is, whether postoperative treatment strategies should be adapted according to the patient's individual risk, remain to be elucidated.