Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.

Anhöriga äldre angår alla!

Anhörigomsorg är del av en komplex väv med olika nivåer, individuella, familjemässiga och övergripande samhälleliga, där åtminstone de senare har begränsade resurser. Denna rapport presenterar och diskuterar kunskapsläget inom svensk och internationell forskning om anhöriga till äldre. Vi sätter den svenska anhörigomsorgen i ett större sammanhang genom resonemang om demografiska förutsättningar, historiska tillbakablickar och internationella utblickar. Nutid belyses med aktuella undersökningar och vi tror att framtiden kan klaras tack vare den allt större överlappning vi redan ser mellan många olika former av hjälp, service, omsorg och vård. Vi ställer frågan om dessa mönster kanske förbises i de ofta dystra, rent demografisk-ekonomiska framskrivningarna. Rapporten redovisar många svenska undersökningar av anhörigomsorg, både i befolkningen i stort och bland äldre. Det förefaller klart att det skett en faktisk ökning av anhörigomsorgens omfattning från 1990-talet och början av 2000- talet, något som flera studier visar. Resultat från en europeisk undersökning med gemensamma frågor och svarsalternativ tyder på att anhörigomsorg är vanligare i Nordeuropa än i Sydeuropa vilket nog strider mot gängse föreställningar. Kanske är det i Norden vanligare att vara hjälpgivare men inte med lika omfattande engagemang eller lika länge och man bor sällan tillsammans. Då fördelas nog omsorgen på fler händer. I Sverige angav mindre än 1 procent att de gav omsorg på heltid, i Spanien 5 procent. Sammantaget har, i Sverige liksom i övriga Europa, mer än 4 av 10 i befolkningen en aktuell eller tidigare personlig erfarenhet av att ge omsorg, och på befolkningsnivå är anhörigomsorgen klart större än den offentliga. De flesta svenska studier visar att det är ungefär lika vanligt bland kvinnor och män att vara givare av anhörigomsorg. Kvinnor ger dock oftare personlig omvårdnad och de ger fler timmar omsorg än männen. De flesta omsorgsgivare ger ganska få hjälptimmar, men timinsatserna ökar med stigande ålder och är högst bland de äldsta. I genomsnitt ger omkring 30 procent av omsorgsgivarna daglig hjälp, men den andelen stiger till nästan 40 procent för anhörigvårdare i 65–80 årsåldern och till 80 procent för dem som är ännu äldre. Äldre utgör således 30 procent av alla som ger omsorg, oftast till andra äldre, men utför ungefär 4 av 10 omsorgstimmar. Äldre personer är inte bara mottagare av omsorg utan minst lika ofta också givare. De flesta givare av anhörigomsorg ger ”lättare” former av insatser (skjutsning, passning, tillsyn etc.), insatser som många gånger säkerligen är viktiga och kan vara avgörande för mottagaren. Det är viktigt att se det stora spektret av anhörigomsorg och att det också finns grupper av anhöriga (ofta äldre personer) som gör omfattande insatser som kan påverka såväl egen hälsa som arbetsliv. Vid små hjälpbehov – fallet för de flesta – får man lite hjälp främst av anhöriga, vid större behov mer hjälp och då av både anhöriga och av kommunen. Delat ansvar är vanligt och även vad omsorgsgivare och mottagare önskar. Få önskar bära ansvaret ensamma och få önskar att ansvaret helt ligger på det offentliga. Historiskt utgör barn och andra anhöriga en viss trygghet på ålderdomen, något som inte tillhör det förflutna, utan snarare kommer att få större betydelse framöver. Anledningen är demografisk: allt fler har nära anhöriga i form av en egen familj. Familjens relativa betydelse har ökat, inte minskat som man ibland föreställer sig. Detta accentueras av att den offentliga omsorgen visserligen är väl utbyggd i Sverige, men tycks ha nått gränsen för vad den kan uträtta, praktiskt och finansiellt. Anhörigomsorgen har även socialpolitiska aspekter. Den som är eller varit anhörigvårdare vill helst inte själv vara mottagare av omfattande anhörigvård, utan hellre få huvuddelen av omsorgen från det offentliga. Man kan nog förutse ännu strängare ransonering av offentliga tjänster i framtiden, där anhöriga och marknadsbaserade tjänster är alternativen, möjligen tillsammans med växande insatser från ideella organisationer.

Les habiletés graphomotrices et les habiletés de production écrite chez les élèves de deuxième année du primaire

Cette recherche avait pour objectif de tracer le portrait des habiletés graphomotrices d’élèves de deuxième année du primaire fréquentant le milieu scolaire francophone québécois. Elle visait aussi à comparer l’évolution au cours de la deuxième année du primaire des habiletés graphomotrices, orthographiques et rédactionnelles des participants selon le style d’écriture appris et mobilisé (script ou cursif) et en fonction de différents niveaux graphomoteurs (fort et faible). Globalement, les résultats suggèrent que les élèves québécois de deuxième année, qu’ils écrivent en script ou en cursif depuis le début de leur scolarisation, ont une fluidité graphomotrice qui est comparable et qui se traduit par la production en moyenne d’environ 14 lettres lisibles par minute en début d’année et de 20 en fin d’année. Tant en script qu’en cursif, la vitesse d’écriture des élèves de deuxième année évolue positivement en cours d’année, mais ceux qui écrivent en script manifestent une progression de vitesse plus marquée. En revanche, concernant la lisibilité des lettres, les élèves qui écrivent en script atteignent un plateau en début d’année, alors qu’une amélioration s’observe entre le début et la fin de la deuxième année chez les élèves qui écrivent en cursif. La comparaison des performances et de l’évolution des habiletés orthographiques et rédactionnelles des élèves de deuxième année pointe des écarts importants pour les variables d’orthographe en copie différée, de longueur et de contenu des textes selon que les élèves présentent une bonne ou une faible fluidité graphomotrice, indépendamment du style d’écriture mobilisé (script ou cursif). Finalement, du point de vue de l’évolution des habiletés orthographiques et rédactionnelles, l'étude n’a pas permis d’identifier un avantage pour l’un ou l’autre des styles d’écriture, et ce, tant chez les élèves forts sur le plan graphomoteur que chez les élèves plus faibles.

The Evolution of Norms in Trade and Financial Networks in the First Global Age: the case of Simon Ruiz's network

In the 16th century, merchants and bankers gained a social influence and political relevance, due to their capacity of ‘faire travailler l’argent des autres’ (Benassar 1972:50). For the success of their activity, they built evolving networks with cooperative partners. These networks were much more than the sum of all partners. In the case study of the Castilian merchant Simon Ruiz, the network functioned in an unique way and independent from any formal institutional control. Its functioning varied in how different partners were associated and the particular characteristics and contents of these social ties. Being a self-organized network, since the formal institutions of trade regulation and the Crown control didn’t influence the network functioning, the Simon Ruiz network was deeply embedded in the economic and financial performance of the Hispanic Empires, in two different ways. The first, purely commercial. The monopolistic regime which was applied by the two crowns in the trade of certain colonial goods was insufficient to the costs of imperial maintenance. In such manner, particulars tried to rent a contract of exploration of trade, paying an annual sum to the crown, as in the Portuguese trade. Some of these agents also moved along Simon Ruiz’s network. But others were involved in relations with the imperial crowns on a second way, the finance. Maintaining Empires implied a lot of human, technical but also financial means, and most of the times Kings were forced to recur to these merchants, as we will demonstrate. What were the implications of these collaborative relations in both parts? The main goal of this paper is to comprehend the evolution of informal norms within Simon Ruiz’s network and how they influenced cooperative behavior of the agents, particularly analyzing mechanisms of sanctioning, control, punishment and reward, as well as their consequences in different dimensions: future interactions, social repercussions and in agent’s economic health and activity. The research is based in the bills of exchange and commercial correspondence of the private archive of Simon Ruiz, located in the Provincial Archive of Valladollid, Spain.

Normalização automática de descrições de hotéis

As descrições de produtos turísticos na área da hotelaria, aviação, rent-a-car e pacotes de férias baseiam-se sobretudo em descrições textuais em língua natural muito heterogénea com estilos, apresentações e conteúdos muito diferentes entre si. Uma vez que o sector do turismo é bastante dinâmico e que os seus produtos e ofertas estão constantemente em alteração, o tratamento manual de normalização de toda essa informação não é possível. Neste trabalho construiu-se um protótipo que permite a classificação e extracção automática de informação a partir de descrições de produtos de turismo. Inicialmente a informação é classificada quanto ao tipo. Seguidamente são extraídos os elementos relevantes de cada tipo e gerados objectos facilmente computáveis. Sobre os objectos extraídos, o protótipo com recurso a modelos de textos e imagens gera automaticamente descrições normalizadas e orientadas a um determinado mercado. Esta versatilidade permite um novo conjunto de serviços na promoção e venda dos produtos que seria impossível implementar com a informação original. Este protótipo, embora possa ser aplicado a outros domínios, foi avaliado na normalização da descrição de hotéis. As frases descritivas do hotel são classificadas consoante o seu tipo (Local, Serviços e/ou Equipamento) através de um algoritmo de aprendizagem automática que obtém valores médios de cobertura de 96% e precisão de 72%. A cobertura foi considerada a medida mais importante uma vez que a sua maximização permite que não se percam frases para processamentos posteriores. Este trabalho permitiu também a construção e população de uma base de dados de hotéis que possibilita a pesquisa de hotéis pelas suas características. Esta funcionalidade não seria possível utilizando os conteúdos originais. ABSTRACT: The description of tourism products, like hotel, aviation, rent-a-car and holiday packages, is strongly supported on natural language expressions. Due to the extent of tourism offers and considering the high dynamics in the tourism sector, manual data management is not a reliable or scalable solution. Offer descriptions - in the order of thousands - are structured in different ways, possibly comprising different languages, complementing and/or overlap one another. This work aims at creating a prototype for the automatic classification and extraction of relevant knowledge from tourism-related text expressions. Captured knowledge is represented in a normalized/standard format to enable new services based on this information in order to promote and sale tourism products that would be impossible to implement with the raw information. Although it could be applied to other areas, this prototype was evaluated in the normalization of hotel descriptions. Hotels descriptive sentences are classified according their type (Location, Services and/or Equipment) using a machine learning algorithm. The built setting obtained an average recall of 96% and precision of 72%. Recall considered the most important measure of performance since its maximization allows that sentences were not lost in further processes. As a side product a database of hotels was built and populated with search facilities on its characteristics. This ability would not be possible using the original contents.

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests.

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cy- cle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combina- tion of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measure- ments and 35 litter productivity measurements), their asso- ciated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonal- ity in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rain- fall is < 2000 mm yr-1 (water-limited forests) and to radia- tion otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, in- dependent of climate limitations, wood productivity and lit- terfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosyn- thetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest pro- ductivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in cur- rent light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr-1.

Energy balances in sugar cane, coffee and natural vegetation in the northeastern side of the São Paulo state, Brazil

Under land and climate change scenarios, agriculture has experienced water competitions among other sectors in the São Paulo state, Brazil. On the one hand, in several occasions, in the northeastern side of this state, nowadays sugar-cane is expanding, while coffee plantations are losing space. On the other hand, both crops have replaced the natural vegetation composed by Savannah and Atlantic Coastal Forest species. Under this dynamic situation, geosciences are valuable tools for evaluating the large-scale energy and mass exchanges between these diffe rent agro-ecosystems and the lower atmosphere. For quantification of the energy balance components in these mixed agro-ecosystems, the bands 1 and 2 from the MODIS product MOD13Q1 we re used throughout SA FER (Surface Algorithm for Evapotranspiration Retrieving) algorithm, which was applied together with a net of 12 automatic weather stations, during the year 2015 in the main sugar cane and coffee growing regions, located at the no rtheastern side of the state. The fraction of the global solar radiation (R G ) transformed into net radiation (Rn) was 52% for sugar cane and 53% for both, coffee and natural vegetation. The respective annual fractions of Rn used as λ E were 0.68, 0.87 and 0.77, while for the sensible heat (H) fluxes they were 0.27, 0.07 and 0.16. From April to July, heat advection raised λ E values above Rn promoting negative H, however these effects were much and less strong in coffee and sugar cane crop s, respectively. The smallest daily Rn fraction for all agro-ecosystems was for the soil heat flux (G), with averages of 5%, 6% and 7% in sugar cane, coffee and natural vegetation. From the energy balance analyses, we could conclude that, sugar-cane crop presented lower annual water consumption than that for coffee crop , what can be seen as an advantage in situations of water scarcity. However, the replacement of natural vegetation by su gar cane can contribute for warming th e environment, while when this occur with coffee crop there was noticed co oling conditions. The large scale modeling satisfactory results confirm the suitability of using MODIS products togeth er with weather stations to study the energy balance components in mixed agro-ecosystems under land-use and climate change conditions.